Key Signals Sets Up Major Market Move
The stock market is dropping today after rumors surfaced of a possible Greek default as early as tomorrow. While this is just a rumor, the possibility remains high that it will happen in the future. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is trading at $119.51, -2.01 (-1.65%). While this drop seems sharp, it is likely it will not accelerate in the next day or two. Even a small up move could be possible. The theory behind this is based on the Federal Reserve Policy Statement on Wednesday. The markets are hoping for some sort of QE3. This hope will keep them from collapsing until we get the word from the Federal Reserve. Once that happens, all bets are off. Depending on their action, the markets will fly higher or collapse.
While the markets are down sharply, some interesting factors are at work. First, with a sharp drop in the markets and panic in Europe, gold would usually be soaring. This is not the case. The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD) is trading at $173.45, -2.58 (-1.47%). With gold not trading inverse to the markets, one must wonder if the markets may inch back up throughout the day, towards the flat line.
Next, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is sharply higher, trading at $406.88, +6.38 (1.59%). This is a leading stock and could also be telling of a continued market bounce today. In addition, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) has turned positive as well. This is another leading indicator for the markets.
Lastly, for long term stability in the markets, the banks must catch a bid. This has not happened today. This tells intelligent traders that the market may not fall much more in the next few days, but most likely will tumble in the next few weeks, after the Federal Reserve.