Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

TMFPostOfTheDay (< 20)

Knight Capital: Why You Should Care

Recs

14

August 03, 2012 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: KCG

Board: Macro Economics

Author: yodaorange

By now, I assume everyone knows about Knight Capital’s (KC) slight software bug that caused them to lose $440 million in 45 minutes yesterday (8/1/12). What you might not be aware of is the role that KC has in the US markets. Knight is one of the largest “market makers” and “designated market makers” (DMM) in the US. They handle roughly 20% of all equity trades in the US.

As an individual investor, if you place a stock market order through Fidelity, Vanguard, TD Waterhouse etc. chances are good that it is “routed” through KC. Understand that the brokerages do NOT interface and/or trade directly with the exchanges like NYSE, ARCA, NASDAQ etc. All of the brokerages go through a middleman like Knight.

Let me skip ahead and say that the Knight obituary is pretty much complete. Odds are they will either go bankrupt or be bought out in a matter of days. When they go BK, the question is what chaos will ensue.

We have two broad case studies to consider.

1) All of the bank closings done by the FDIC which are incredibly smooth and transparent to the depositors. The FDIC does a great job IMO handling these.

2) Unfortunately, the other case study is MF Global which I have described as a black swan event. I did NOT think it was possible in 2011 US Markets for a firm to make off with $1.X billion client dollars. We will leave out the fact that no charges have been filed as of yet.

I absolutely, positively do NOT think that any client funds will be lost when KC goes bankrupt. I also do not worry that eventually all of the securities you bought or sold will be properly accounted for.

What concerns me is how orderly the BK will be. As we saw when MF Global went BK and the music stops, there are an incredible number of loose ends left dangling. Eventually the SEC and the SIPC and the exchanges and the brokerage firms will get it all straightened out IMO. God only knows how long it will take. In the best case, it is 100% transparent to all individual investors.

In the worst case, your account could show the wrong quantities, cost basis etc. Also since you never know who has what money when the music stops, some of the brokerage firms might shortchanged for a while. Fidelity, Vanguard, TD Waterhouse and others have already stopped using KC.

BOTTOM LINE 1 is that in the end, I am confident that all will be well with individual investor accounts. Unfortunately based on a sample size of one (MF Global), I am not as confident that the process will be transparent to the individual investors. I would NOT change brokerages due to this. The brokerages did nothing wrong IMO

BOTTOM LINE 2 is that the software trading bug that occurred does not surprise me at all. I have posted several times previously that I expected other “flash crash” type events to occur again. All of the software developers on the board can vouch that software bugs are a fact of life. There is ZERO reason to think this is that last one we will see. The only question is when the next one will occur and how bad it will be.

BOTTOM LINE 3 is that I expect the SEC to show the same strong leadership as they have in the past. Meaning they will put Larry, Curly and Moe on the case right away. The chances of them doing anything significant to prevent another occurrence are about the same odds as Yoda beating Michael Phelps in a swim race.

Thanks,

Yodaorange

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 03, 2012 at 1:38 PM, leohaas (32.24) wrote:

There are plenty of market makers. Nobody will miss Knight. Your transactions will be routed through one of the others.

This happened on Wednesday, so by Monday all trades will be settled. Knight will be out of business or taken over.

Report this comment
#2) On August 03, 2012 at 8:12 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.68) wrote:

Nice post.

Just wanted to point out that Yoda would totally beat Phelps.

You've seen the movies right, that old dude can really move when he needs to.

May the Force be with you.

Report this comment
#3) On August 05, 2012 at 10:30 PM, Silver182 (< 20) wrote:

So what do you fools think is going to happen next week with KCG? I would like an to know what you think selling 400,000,000 mill of convertable capital stock at a buck 1/2 is going to do to the stock price within the next few weeks...Puts or Calls from Friday's close of 4 bucks?

Report this comment
#4) On August 06, 2012 at 12:01 AM, greyecho (< 20) wrote:

Last I heard, Goldman Sachs just reported to have their back in this whole issue. Also, I do agree, software glitches do occur in even the largest of businesses. They will be forgiven and event will be forgotten. Nothing was intentional. Locked in my shares at $2.80, so I'm pretty confident there will be a light at the end.

Report this comment
#5) On August 06, 2012 at 12:26 AM, EvanBuck (99.79) wrote:

"They handle roughly 20% of all equity trades in the US."

And what would happen if Knight goes down?  That 20% will simply be transferred over to other places.  No biggie.

Besides, as @greyecho said, this incident might even blow over, although I kind of doubt that.  Seriously, do you think that people aren't going to notice that KC lost $440 million in 45 minutes?  I don't think so.  We'll see.

"...software bugs are a fact of life. There is ZERO reason to think this is that last one we will see. The only question is when the next one will occur and how bad it will be."

Spot-on, Yoda.

Report this comment
#6) On August 06, 2012 at 12:58 AM, Silver182 (< 20) wrote:

Well here it is Sunday evening...I think I do a bullish short spread 20 & 15...and see what happens.

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement