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FreeMarkets (99.25)

Krugman's Revisionist History

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October 29, 2010 – Comments (13)

Krugman's recent article "Divided We Fail" uses false claims, fear and outright lies to convince the reader that a Republican take over in Congress is going to be terrible for the U.S. economy.

After I expose the Krugman lies, I will refute his entire economic thesis using just ONE word. 

Krugman wrote "We might add that should any Republicans in Congress find themselves considering the possibility of acting in a statesmanlike, bipartisan manner, they’ll surely reconsider after looking over their shoulder at the Tea Party-types, who will jump on them if they show any signs of being reasonable."

The word "reasonable" was very carefully chosen by Krugman.  Why not say "conciliatory" or "compromise"?  Krugman chose "reasonable" because it forces the reader to assume think "Only a crazy person isn't 'reasonable'!  Those Tea Party-types are crazy."

The truth is if a politician COMPROMISES beliefs, COMPROMISES election promises, it is entirely REASONABLE to remove that person from office.  Krugman believes its OK to lie to get elected, because the average American is dumber than a box of cereal (and not Kashi cereal, he's talking about Coco Puffs).

Krugman goes on to say "When Republicans took control of Congress in 1994, the U.S. economy had strong fundamentals ... In this favorable environment, economic management was mainly a matter of putting the brakes on the boom, so as to keep the economy from overheating and head off potential inflation. And this was a job the Federal Reserve could do on its own by raising interest rates, without any help from Congress."

What an amazing piece of revisionist history.  Yes, Krugman's right that in 1994 the U.S. had stronger fundamentals, but he credits the FED for putting the brakes on a boom!  Did we not have the greatest BUST in a century when the the Dot Com bubble burst?  If anything the FED screwed up royally during the 1990's by not putting on the brakes hard enough (reality is they were coasting more than braking).  

Krugman adds "The economy, weighed down by the debt that households ran up during the Bush-era bubble, is in dire straits; deflation, not inflation, is the clear and present danger."

It's true the households ran up debt during the Bush-era, but it was the very low interest rates by the FED that encouraged this debt.  Somehow Krugman gives the FED credit for avoiding the Dot Com bubble (and it wouldn't be a bubble if it was avoided), and he blames Bush for household debt.

Why would someone so obfuscate the truth?  You have to when you are advocating what Krugman does in the two sentences following this one. "And it’s not at all clear that the Fed has the tools to head off this danger. Right now we very much need active policies on the part of the federal government to get us out of our economic trap."

Aha!  How can you ask to give the FED and the Federal Gov't MORE POWER, without lying about the their past actions in causing the problems.

Krugman DOES NOT believe in austerity.  He does not believe that reducing spending and low inflation to get us out of this economic debacle.  He needs to save face and he does that by constantly saying that we are not spending enough.  As long as we don't spend enough, he can always argue he was right.

So how can I, in one word, prove he's wrong?  How can one word prove that austerity creates prosperity?  How can one word prove austerity creates jobs?  How can one word obliterate the economic teachings of a Nobel prize winning economist?  

It's not hard at all.  Here you go.  GERMANY

 

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 29, 2010 at 10:47 AM, Dow3000 (< 20) wrote:

Do what you do with all idiots...just ignore him.  You should also realize that he is clearly bought off by the world government must rule all crowd.  He is not actually this incompetent, he is simply lying.

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#2) On October 29, 2010 at 12:05 PM, MichaelMolenaar (< 20) wrote:

PK's one of those guys that I don't know wheather I should laugh at or be scared of. I'd love to sit down and talk to the guy but that's not going to happen. I'm interested in how much of his income is derived from government sources. For example, he writes for the Times, which is private, but he teaches at Princeton, which is subsidized by the federal government via student loans and research grants. Quite fascinating....

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#3) On October 29, 2010 at 12:25 PM, kdakota630 (33.35) wrote:

Well said... errr... typed!

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#4) On October 29, 2010 at 12:30 PM, cthomas1017 (36.16) wrote:

Great point!  I have not checked lately.  Does anyone know if Krugman ever stopped beating his wife?

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#5) On October 29, 2010 at 12:39 PM, dargus (84.44) wrote:

You don't seem to have read the quotes you posted, or misunderstood them. You base two of your points on the idea that Krugman says the Fed avoided the dot-com bubble, but the quote you posted didn't say that at all.

"And this was a job the Federal Reserve could do on its own by raising interest rates, without any help from Congress."

Could is a very important word in this sentence, which you seem to have read as did.

As for Germany, here's a pre-rebuttle by Paul.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/24/what-about-germany/

 

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#6) On October 29, 2010 at 12:57 PM, FreeMarkets (99.25) wrote:

#5 - First, Krugman implies they did a fine job otherwise why would he be asking they have MORE tools to fix the current crisis.

Second, in Krugman's pre-rebuttal, which you linked, he states: "There are a number of reasons that’s foolish, among them the fact that Germany’s austerity policies have not yet begun"

So his rebuttal is comparing Keynesian policies to Keynesian policies.  But after the austerity measures are being implemented we find out "Unemployment in Germany fell below 3m in October for the first time in 18 years, according to unadjusted figures released by the federal labour office." 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4aad862e-e27b-11df-9ea3-00144feabdc0.html

Defending Krugman is like defending Pope Alexander VI

 

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#7) On October 29, 2010 at 1:47 PM, dargus (84.44) wrote:

That implication isn't necessary at all. All he says is, "And it’s not at all clear that the Fed has the tools to head off this danger." Success or failure in the 90's has nothing at all to do with this statement. You can easily be talking about potential and all the points are completely valid.

If you look at the chart, German unemployment has been trending down since about Q2 2009. The chart I have is by percentage of unemployed workers. The number for the size of German labor force I found is 43,510,000, so that would put unemployment around 6.5%. Put that together with my chart ending in August and the unemployment rate has dropped only by about .3 percentage points. It seems to me you can't argue that austerity has created jobs or prosperity, but rather it hasn't caused the trend in employment to change. Look at the chart for the U.S. and the trends look quite a bit different.

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=z9a8a3sje0h8ii_&met=unemployment_rate&idim=eu_country:DE&dl=en&hl=en&q=german+unemployment+chart

http://www.indexmundi.com/germany/labor_force.html

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=usunemployment&met=unemployment_rate&tdim=true&dl=en&hl=en&q=us+unemployment+chart

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#8) On October 29, 2010 at 2:04 PM, FleaBagger (33.44) wrote:

It seems to me you can't argue that austerity has created jobs or prosperity, but rather it hasn't caused the trend in employment to change.

But isn't that enough to destroy Krugman's credibility completely and permanently? His whole career and existence is based upon austerity measures being completely bad and wrong for every recession and every contraction, in all places and all times. Austerity hasn't hurt Germany's employment levels, while our already higher unemployment went up after a massive stimulus.

Besides, we still have 1920.

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#9) On October 29, 2010 at 2:07 PM, dargus (84.44) wrote:

It was stated a couple posts ago that German austerity has hardly even begun yet. Further, it would seem Germany is pretty much out of the woods. They aren't in recession and their unemployment rate is below what it was when the crisis started.

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#10) On October 29, 2010 at 6:41 PM, devoish (98.78) wrote:

I'll take the "austerity" of Germanys strong unions, universal healthcare, college funding, and unemployment programs and I raise you one "supply and demand is the only economic law, all else is politicy.

“If we were in Detroit, we could worry every minute,” said Sarah Fuerstenberger, 37. “But here, we’re safe because of the system."

While economic forecasts are just as dire on this continent as in the United States, Germany’s citizens — and, indeed, most across western Europe — can count on a broad government safety net that includes generous unemployment checks, universal healthcare and inexpensive university education to tide them over...

...However, Europe fiercely resisted President Obama's calls for it to increase its stimulus programs last month at the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations summit in London. That’s because leaders here argue that their existing social welfare initiatives are already keeping people afloat as well as stimulating demand.

Of course, these ongoing European programs come with a cost — higher taxes, which critics say can sap economic vitality.

Devoish here - The critics are wrong.

 At the end of last year, for instance, Jan’s former employer, Borg Warner, which makes friction plates for automatic transmission systems, initiated kurzarbeit or short-time work.

“Different departments worked eight or nine hours less than the usual 40-hour week,” Jan said.

Fortunately for the family, "closing days" and even "closing weeks" did not carry the same monetary losses as they would in Michigan.

“The company pays the hours you worked and the gap that’s between the actual hours and the usual hours is paid by the government,” he said, as the couple enjoyed a quiet evening in after putting the kids to bed.

“It’s a good instrument to use to react to the recession and still keep our good, qualified workers,” said Georg Haux, a spokesman for Siemens, which had 7,000 employees in kurzarbeit in March. Haux said that with the government subsidy, the company guaranteed workers 85 percent of their normal pay no matter how drastically their hours were cut

Devoish here - Detroits unions were bashed mercilessly by free marketeers for providing the same benefit to their employees.

I recommend a tax rate of 70% on the top two percent earners, no distinction between money earned investing or working, single payer healthcare, free federally funded college, and unemployment at 85% of income, a reduction in defense, eliminating defense privatisation, and subsidizing renewable - not alternative - energys.

Starting right now.

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#11) On October 29, 2010 at 10:14 PM, whereaminow (73.00) wrote:

Great post, FM!

David in Qatar 

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#12) On October 30, 2010 at 7:31 AM, FreeMarkets (99.25) wrote:

Devoish brings up an interesting point.  German taxes and benefits are both higher than in the U.S.  So how come they are doing better than us.  For one, we spend so much on defense that its completely insane.  But really, how MUCH does Germany spend.

Their 2010 budget was 319.5 billion euros * 1.35 =  $431 billion
The US budget was $3.7 trillion

According to the CIA factbook, Germany's population is 82 million.  $431 billion  ÷ 82 million = $5,256 per person

According to the CIA factbook, the U.S. pop. is 310 million.  $3.7 trillion ÷ 310 million =  $11,935 per person.

REGARDLESS, if Germany's austerity has started or not, they are austere compared to the U.S. 

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#13) On November 05, 2010 at 1:11 AM, Infidel99 (< 20) wrote:

The recent austerity measures haven't even gone into effect yet, so I don't see a causal relationship. However, Germany did enact the biggest stimulus in europe last year, which was somewhat comperable to the US. Germany's stimulus was about 82 billion euros.  (not counting all the existing social welfare) Compare that to the 10 billion euro anual budget cut next year in the austerity measure.

Unemployment is low due to Germany's extensive safety net and the fact that their population is declining.  The US has been also been adding net jobs for several months, but not enough to keep up with the growth in workforce.

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