alstry (35.68)

Le Nar's Revenues Down only 62%

June 25, 2008 – Comments (1)

Right now, according to analysts' consensus, Lennar's revenues are only estimated to drop 62% from last year at around $1.1 Billion.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=LEN

Now for any company 62% y/y revenue drop is a big number....but what if I told you that I don't think it is even going to be close for Lennar.  You should probably think I am nuts to think that sales could be off more than 62%. 

How about sales down closer to 75% to less than $800 million?  That would be over 30% less than current analyst estimates or around 1/4 of last years revenues.  I should be locked up in a mental institution immediately for such outrageous predictions.

Where are those HB pump monkeys when you need a good debate.  Remember they are NEVER wrong because they have all the connections and us bully bears have none. 

Not only do I think revenues are going to be way down, backlog will probably evaporate from last years numbers.  Going forward, people may ask, how are homebuilders going to generate enough revenues to cover their fixed expenses?

My guess is that this will be the HB report that shocks the world and wakes everyone up.  Revenues shrinking, Backlog evaporating, Costs rising, and Wall Street analysts and pump monkeys are telling you to take your money and invest in this stuff while their buddies may be selling to you?

This post is being made BEFORE tomorrow morning's release.  At this point, I have no idea whether I will be right on my prediction.  Unlike others, I am wrong and more often than I like.  But based on my read of the financial statements.......absent some HUGE land sale.....I simply have a hard time seeing how Le Nar can come close to current analyst estimates.