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XMFSinchiruna (28.56)

Learn to Strike Where Golden Achievements Fall on Deaf Ears

Recs

30

December 16, 2011 – Comments (29) | RELATED TICKERS: BRD , CDY

In some respects an obvious proposition, but nonetheless worthwhile to keep in mind when scouring through a battered sector for the standout bargains with low (long-term) downside risk.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/12/16/learn-to-strike-where-golden-achievements-fall-on.aspx

Remember when I was urging Fols to buy Yamana at $11 (I think I began touting that combination of traits around $9 per share) because I perceived one of the sector's standout bargains with minimal downside risk? That minimal downside risk was a product of meaningful value-added achievements that the market had persistently failed to account for during a broader period of weakness for precious metals. The discussion in the article linked above is a current application of the same sort of exercise.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/11/04/yamana-gold-is-preparing-for-liftoff.aspx

Brigus' initial resource was a thing of beauty, and the market's irrational response serves to reduce downside risk in the share. Deep value and low risk ... A powerful combination! Likewise for Cardero Resource with its phenomenal PEA on Carbon Creek.

Enjoy! 

29 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 16, 2011 at 6:13 PM, DarthMaul09 (30.51) wrote:

Any information to explain AXU and RBY move today?

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#2) On December 16, 2011 at 6:22 PM, XMFSinchiruna (28.56) wrote:

Not news driven as far as I know ... Check the volume ... Without even looking I bet those were institutional buys.

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#3) On December 16, 2011 at 6:50 PM, rodney15 (< 20) wrote:

Sinch, how do you feel about BAA?

Bought some at 3.01 before the closing rally. Looks to be solid going into 2012

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#4) On December 16, 2011 at 7:08 PM, XMFSinchiruna (28.56) wrote:

rodney... they've fallen off my radar ... thanks for reminding me to update my perspective on the company. I'll try to have a look and post some thoughts here at some point.

Sinch

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#5) On December 17, 2011 at 5:57 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

12/16/11         

“Better late than never. E*TRADE, the online brokerage that is perhaps best known for its commercials starring infant trading whizzes, has begun offering commission free trading on a lineup of exchange-traded funds. ETFs issued by Global X, WisdomTree, and db-X (Deutsche Bank) will be eligible for commission free trading on the E*Trade platform. That lineup includes about 90 ETFs covering a wide variety of asset classes, including currencies, international bond markets, dividend-weighted indexes, and commodity-producing equities. The most popular ETFs that are now available commission free on E*Trade include:

WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund (DEM)WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (ELD)WisdomTree Dividend ex-Financials Fund (DTN)

Popular Global X tickers available on the E*Trade platform now include the Silver Miners ETF (SIL), Uranium ETF (URA), and Colombia ETF (GXG). The db-X lineup of ETFs includes a suite of currency-hedged products that strip out the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on international equity exposure.”

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#6) On December 20, 2011 at 5:11 PM, Sturmudgeon (< 20) wrote:

just a 'news item' to note:  don't know if any Fools are in this one:

 Crocodile Gold Corp. (CRK.T, C$0.50, C$0.01, 2%) has adopted a limited-duration shareholder rights plan. Crocodile is the target of an unsolicited takeover proposal from Luxor Capital Group.

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#7) On December 20, 2011 at 5:18 PM, Sturmudgeon (< 20) wrote:

I don't 'blog', so cannot catch everybody, but to the many Fools that 'watch' Sinch., I wish all a Very Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year!!

Thanks so much for all the 'thought-provoking' comments on this blog of Sinch's.

Sincerely,

Sturmudgeon@76

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#8) On December 22, 2011 at 12:04 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Sinch do you have any coment on Brigus' 4Q production release...they have continued to fail to hit their estimates, do you know if 2012 production guidance is still in tact?

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#9) On December 22, 2011 at 4:28 PM, XMFSinchiruna (28.56) wrote:

SN,

They missed on volume by about 17% from the already disappointing Q4 outlook delivered with Q3 results. Certainly not what we want to see, but keep in mind the new General Mine Manager only got started earlier this month, and the 4 mine geologists and the production coordinator also started just during the quarter. Let's grant them this quarter to get their feet wet with the existing shortcomings, and look to Q1 for first indications of a noticeable improvement.

When it gels, and the new management team knows full well that the underground operation must gel in a hurry, the advanced state of underground development and number of active stopes still promises to yield reliable steady-state production.

Personally, I'm looking for 80,000-90,000 ounces in 2012, and >100,000 in 2013. Somewhere within that period, the market will begin to price-in production from Contact and 147. When it does, we'll all be winners.

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#10) On December 22, 2011 at 5:51 PM, ziying (< 20) wrote:

Sinch,

   I own nearly 10,000 shares of Brigus Gold. It closed at 97 cents today. Is it worth buying more at this time?

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#11) On December 23, 2011 at 9:33 PM, eeibbay (< 20) wrote:

I have a small holding in BRD and would also like to know if it is worth buying at these levels. Looks to have rallied a bit today. Any further thoughts on Copper Fox? I am hoping for a big pop here early in the new year on a buy back from Teck. If this happens is BRD a good target for the ginormous profits...

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#12) On December 24, 2011 at 12:34 AM, charliedawgg (< 20) wrote:

Hey Sinch,

First of all, thanxx for all the guidance/input that you have selflessly provided. Quick question...you and other Fools have expressed an affinity for Eldorado Gold (EGO). Does their recent acquisition of European Goldfields (EGFDF) and the subsequent downgrade pose any concern to you? Thanxx in advance for any input. Cheers and best regards.

 Charliedawgg

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#13) On December 24, 2011 at 12:54 PM, XMFSinchiruna (28.56) wrote:

Charliedawgg,

I'll let my article speak for me on that point:

 http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/12/20/meet-the-new-leader-of-golds-midtier-pack.aspx

ziing and eeibbay,

I can't offer trade-specific advice, but I can tell you I remain strongly bullish on the stock's long-term outlook despite the disappointing q4 output. I can see no obstacles to a swift operational improvement, and the shares are deeply discounted as a consequence of the hiccups thus far.

When I have cash to deploy, I am targeting a basket of my top prospects rather than betting the house on any one stock, but I can tell you that BRD is certainly part of that basket.

Good luck, and Merry Christmas 

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#14) On December 24, 2011 at 1:08 PM, Starfirenv (< 20) wrote:

Silvercorp ~$6. ?  Hmmm...

  Any thoughts on the recent revelations w/MfG, the COMEX and rehypothication by JPM?  I think J Willie and the SilverDoctor nailed it. Thoughts? 
  Best to you and yours this Holiday Season Mr Sinchi.

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#15) On December 26, 2011 at 3:00 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://www.chinagoldintl.com/i/pdf/E-China-Gold-Clarification-Announcement-%282%29.pdf

CLARIFICATION ANNOUNCEMENT

CHINA GOLD RESTATES DRILL INTERCEPTS BY REMOVING COMPOSITE AVERAGING:

INTERCEPTS INCLUDE 185.58 METERS GRADING 0.93 G/T Au

Sky Pilot

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinch

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#16) On December 26, 2011 at 4:13 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://www.tyhee.com/documents/TyheeAnnouncesManagementChanges.pdf

12/19/11

TYHEE ANNOUNCES MANAGEMENT CHANGE

**

12/16/11

http://www.tyhee.com/documents/TyheeEquityRaising.pdf

Tyhee to Raise Up to $6 Million

Sky Pilot

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#17) On December 28, 2011 at 12:12 AM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Hi Sinch, I was wondering if there are any resources on the web for Thermal Coal, specifically, historical price charts, outlook, etc.  I want to read up more on the sector but can't seem to find anything. Thanks

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#18) On December 28, 2011 at 6:56 AM, XMFSinchiruna (28.56) wrote:

SN,

eia.gov is a good place to start:

http://www.eia.gov/coal/

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#19) On December 28, 2011 at 7:16 AM, XMFSinchiruna (28.56) wrote:

SkyPilot,

I had a lengthy conversation yesterday with the third-party IR rep for Tyhee. The company seems to have figured a change was required given the dastardly share-price action. Dr. Web is an exploration geologist, and now that the company is knee-deep in its feasibility study, it may be time for someone else to lead the way forward.

Regardless, I know that I for one am thankful for the work Dr. Webb completed at Tyhee in building this project to where it is today.

Like Alexandria before them, it's a bummer they had to go to the market in the midst of thie significant downturn, but you have to keep moving forward and raising capital when needed.

The feasibility study is increasingly shaping up as a moment of truth for the stock, where the market will either attribute to the project some likelihood of moving forward as it stands, or not. At that point, the board will have to decide whether going it alone remains a viable strategy, or whether seeking a jv or buyout presents the better option.

It's a tough road for micro-cap developers these days, which is so incredibly odd given that we're in the midst of a secular bull market for the metals in question.

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#20) On December 28, 2011 at 7:52 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

On December 28, 2011 at 7:16 AM, TMFSinchiruna (98.08) wrote:

" It's a tough road for micro-cap developers these days, which is so incredibly odd given that we're in the midst of a secular bull market for the metals in question."

I agree. Nice opportunity for us to make money, long term. IMO.

Thanks for tt them.  I appreciate you taking the time to do that for your  fellow  Fools.    

I added a meaningful  amount  to my position on Nov 29 @ .107.  I am sleeping sound….  :)

Sky Pilot

Your Official Web Link Assistant

 

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#21) On December 28, 2011 at 5:16 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Sinch, what should be expect from the initial Asakaba resource coming next month... Do you think it will be bigger than Orenada,?

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#22) On December 30, 2011 at 9:01 PM, ziying (< 20) wrote:

Hi Sinch,

  I added to my brigus Gold holdings and started a new position in Cardero Resource after reading your Blog and some quick DD. I now have AUQ, BRD, CDY, GPL, AUNFF.PK, CRK.T and TGB. I read your two part story on your picks for 2012. I'm currently under water on most of these but in no rush to sell. Can you give me some of your insight for these gold and silver miners not on your top 10 list? 

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#23) On December 31, 2011 at 8:39 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://stocknewsnow.com/?p=2633

Lenic Rodriguez, CEO Aurcana Corp. “Silver Production 2012 Forecasts—Expects 2500 tons/day at La Negra and Shafter Mines” Video Interview at Hard Assets SF 2011

On December 27, 2011

Sky Pilot

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinch

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#24) On December 31, 2011 at 11:12 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://www.yukon-nevadagold.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=498607&_Type=&_Title=Yukon-Nevada-Gold-Corp.-Reviews-Progress-at-Jerritt-Canyon-Nevada

 

December 30, 2011
Yukon-Nevada Gold Corp. Reviews Progress at Jerritt Canyon, Nevada

Sky Pilot

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#25) On January 01, 2012 at 9:44 PM, ziying (< 20) wrote:

Many thanks for the Aurcana Corp. link Sky Pilot. It makes me want to double down on Aurcana but I'm worried about the huge number of shares outstanding.

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#26) On January 02, 2012 at 6:54 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

 On January 01, 2012 at 9:44 PM, ziying (< 20) wrote:

Many thanks for the Aurcana Corp. link Sky Pilot. It makes me want to double down on Aurcana but I'm worried about the huge number of shares outstanding."

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/12/23/growing-silver-miners-gnaw-at-heclas-heels.aspx?source=isesitlnk0000001&mrr=0.33

Sinch’s recent mention

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=125388&sn=Detail

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Aurcana-Corporation-BC-pz-3459418168.html

Eric Sprott is willing to lend them Money.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Aurcana-Discovers-New-Silver-iw-3556476615.html

 

12/13/11

9/28/11

Historical context and the involvement of Sprott and Fidelity

http://classicvalueinvestors.com/i/2011/09/aurcana-corporation-silver-producer-on-its-way-to-greatness/

Hope this helps.

Fool On

Sky Pilot

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinch

 

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#27) On January 02, 2012 at 9:04 PM, ziying (< 20) wrote:

Wow Sky Pilot you are Johnny on the spot! I briefly owned HL last fall but sold it to buy something else. Now seeing the first link opens up my eyes to the thought of a merger/acquisition of Aurcana. As it stands Aurcana looks very undervalued but in any type of action with HL (or other miner) I would expect full valuation and a hefty premium to it's current price. Thoughts?

It also looks like I've got to get me some more Aurcana!

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#28) On January 02, 2012 at 11:45 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

On January 02, 2012 at 9:04 PM, ziying (< 20) wrote:

"Wow Sky Pilot you are Johnny on the spot! I briefly owned HL last fall but sold it to buy something else. Now seeing the first link opens up my eyes to the thought of a merger/acquisition of Aurcana. As it stands Aurcana looks very undervalued but in any type of action with HL (or other miner) I would expect full valuation and a hefty premium to it's current price. Thoughts?

It also looks like I've got to get me some more Aurcana!"

Thanks.   But, I give Sinch all of the credit.  He taught me how to do proper DD on miners.

I like Aurcana.  I own several "K" shares.   

I may buy some more during the first quarter.   But, I am now accumulating some "off of the radar"   miners, first.  Sub 50 cent per share stocks,  Under valued IMO. 

I take time each AM to do some "prospecting" using Google and Yahoo search engines. 

I look at who also, owns them and / or are significant shareholders in and / or are lenders to them.

Try it.   Keep notes.    You'll be surprised with what you can find.

Share the info. here, Sinch's Blog,  with us.

Sky Pilot

Official Web Link Assistant to Sinch.

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#29) On January 03, 2012 at 7:11 PM, ziying (< 20) wrote:

Sky Pilot,

  I've bet fairly heavily on Aurcana. I own 11 of those "K" shares. I  have 12 in Brigus Gold too. Just for fun I did a little snoping at Yahoo Finance and found US Silver Corp. I'm sure you know all about it but it looked interesting to me. Do you think it's worth taking a deeper look into it?

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