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portefeuille (99.60)

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April 26, 2010 – Comments (30)

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#23) On October 13, 2009 at 10:39 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:

Maybe it would be a good idea to buy a "basket of LED stocks". These are the ones I mentioned above (they all to some extent "have to do with LED" ...).

AIXG - AIXTRON
VECO - Veeco Instruments
CREE - Cree
011070.KS - LG Innotek
009150.KS - Samsung Electro-Mechanics
001210.KS - Kumho Electric

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(from here)

 

update.

 

Aixtron.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=AIXA%3AGR

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=AIXG%3AUS



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Veeco Instruments.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=VECO%3AUS



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Cree.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CREE%3AUS



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LG Innotek.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=011070%3AKS



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Kumho Electric.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=001210%3AKS



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Everlight Electronics.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=2393%3ATT



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Nexxus Lighting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NEXS%3AUS



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Rubicon Technology.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=RBCN%3AUS



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30 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 26, 2010 at 8:51 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Veeco Announces First Quarter 2010 Financial Results

Veeco Q1 EPS beats by a penny, sees strong Q2

Q1 2010 Financial Results (pdf)

Q1 2010 Veeco Instruments Inc. Earnings Conference Call

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#2) On April 26, 2010 at 8:58 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I have recommended Aixtron and Veeco and they "control" the MOCVD market. Putting around 70% of the "led instruments" money into AIXG shares and the rest into VECO shares might be reasonable.

I have recently written a post on Aixtron here. Aixtron may be extremely cheap, but that of course depends on a few things. Looking at the Q2 estimates from VECO they just announced they may be pretty cheap as well.

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#3) On April 26, 2010 at 9:07 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

My favourite large cap light stock in Royal Philips Electronics.

http://www.philips.com/

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PHIA%3ANA

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PHG%3AUS

 

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#4) On April 26, 2010 at 9:14 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I forgot this one.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=009150%3AKS



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#5) On April 26, 2010 at 9:34 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Kumho Electric does have some LED business, but I don't think it is all that important for the company currently.

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August 28, 2009, RESEARCHALERT-Credit Suisse starts Kumho Elec with "outperform"

SEOUL, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse initiated its coverage on Kumho Electric (001210.KS) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of 68,000 won ($54.84).

"Kumho, the largest supplier of Cold Cathode Fluorescent Lamps (CCFL) to Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), is a relative late entrant to the light emitting diode market. However, through its acquisition of Lumimicro, Kumho rode the fast-track lane to become a vertically integrated LED supplier," Credit Suisse said in its note on Thursday.

The investment banks said catalysts to the company share price included supply of its LED TV BLU to Samsung Electronics and a faster penetration rate in the LED general lighting market.

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#6) On April 26, 2010 at 9:53 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Kumho Electric does have some LED business, but I don't think it is all that important for the company currently.

okay, maybe it is, hehe ...

a recent research report on Kumho Electric (pdf).

 

Lumimicro.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=082800%3AKS



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#7) On April 26, 2010 at 9:55 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I think I should write that I recently bought an LED light bulb and that I consider buying a second one.

I am sure I will get 20 recommendations for that, hehe ...

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#8) On April 26, 2010 at 10:34 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

Hey Port,

You said above that you think AIXG and VECCO are cheap today. How cheap do you think they are? what's your target range/target time period? Thanks.

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#9) On April 26, 2010 at 11:20 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

These are the current consensus estimates for Aixtron.

Umsatz - revenue
Gewinn je Aktie - earnings per share
KGV (Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis) - PER (Price-Earnings-Ratio)
Nettoverschuldung - net debt

So you get a 2011 P/E of slightly below 16 if you subtract the "2011 net cash position" using these consensus estimates. And the analysts have somehwat consistently underestimated the Aixtron results for quite some time now (see this post). Whether Aixtron is really "cheap" depends on the way the current boom develops and I am really no expert on that. I just have the feeling that the current LED boom will not peak in the near future.

VECO has a slightly higer ratio of non-MOCVD business (I think ...). I am pretty sure there will be quite a bit of raising of estimates coming for VECO in reaction to their Q1 earnings release (and the Q2 outlook).

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#10) On April 26, 2010 at 11:21 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

(those Aixtron estimates are in EUR.)

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#11) On April 26, 2010 at 11:22 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

((and Mio. stands for Millionen (million)))

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#12) On April 26, 2010 at 11:26 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I still believe it is best to buy a basket of LED related stocks. I will leave the selection and weighting to my readers, hehe ...

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#13) On April 26, 2010 at 11:34 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Philips does of course have quite a bit of non-light business, just like Siemens, the owner of Osram (see comments #1,2 here).

Philips in Frankfurt trading.



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#14) On April 26, 2010 at 11:36 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

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January 28, 2010

some light/LED/OLED/LCD/display stocks (see here and here).

Aixtron (AIXA.DE, AIXG)

http://www.aixtron.com/

Cree (CREE)

http://www.cree.com/

Epistar (2448.TW, 2448:TT)

http://www.epistar.com.tw/

Everlight Electronics (2393.TW, 2393:TT)

http://www.everlight.com/

Huga Optotech (8199.TWO, 8199:TT)

http://www.hugaopto.com.tw/

Kumho Electric (001210.KS, 001210:KS)

http://www.khe.co.kr/

LG Display (034220.KS, LPL)

http://www.lgdisplay.com/

LG Innotek (011070.KS)

http://www.lginnotek.com/

Merck (MRK.DE, MKGAY.PK)

http://www.merck.de/

Philips Electronics (PHIA.AS, PHG)

http://www.philips.com/

Rubicon Technology (RBCN)

http://www.rubicon-es2.com/

Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS, 009150:KS)

http://www.sem.samsung.com/

Samsung Electronics (005930.KS, 005930:KS)

http://www.samsung.com/

Seoul Semiconductor (046890.KQ, 046890:KS)

http://www.seoulsemicon.com/

Sumitomo Chemical (4005.T, 4005:JP)

http://www.sumitomo-chem.co.jp/

Universal Display (PANL)

http://www.universaldisplay.com/

Veeco Instruments (VECO)

http://www.veeco.com/

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(from here)

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#15) On April 27, 2010 at 12:05 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

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Samsung Electro Gains to Record on Price Targets

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co., a South Korean maker of electronic parts, advanced to a record in Seoul trading after two brokerages raised their share-price forecast on earnings prospects.

The stock climbed 4.5 percent to 115,500 as of 11:25 a.m. on the Korea Exchange, headed for a record close. The benchmark Kospi stock index fell 0.2 percent.

Daewoo Securities Co. lifted its share-price estimate to 156,000 won from 120,000 won in a report today. Prudential Investment & Securities Co. raised its price target to 140,000 won from 130,000 won, while Mirae Asset Securities Co. rated the shares “buy” in new coverage with a share-price estimate of 140,000 won.

“The company’s light-emitting diode business should benefit from expanding market for televisions that use LEDs as screen backlights,” Kim Woon Ho, a Prudential analyst, wrote in a note today. The rising market share of its key product, multilayer ceramic capacitors, the core of every electronic circuit, is also positive, Kim said.

Operating profit may be 822 billion won ($726 million) in 2010 on a consolidated basis, compared with 465 billion won last year, said Daewoo analysts, including Park Won Jae. “We believe there’s further upside in the share price.”

Samsung Electro shares have advanced 138 percent over the past one year, compared with a 41 percent gain in the Kospi index.

...

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#764) On September 02, 2009 at 4:31 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: 009150.KS - 79.49 (99100 KRW) - outperform

(from here)

Samsung Electro-Mechanics is currently at around 138500 KRW.

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#16) On April 27, 2010 at 8:22 AM, lemoneater (82.21) wrote:

Thanks for the helpful information on LED stocks. I have PHG and PANL. A way to indirectly invest in LED is to have some shares of GLW. Many displays utilizing LED technology still are made of glass.  I have all the stocks I've mentioned in my real life portifolio.

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#17) On April 27, 2010 at 10:52 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

good choice.

AIXG, VECO and GLW are in my list of current favourites.

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#18) On April 27, 2010 at 12:34 PM, lemoneater (82.21) wrote:

Thanks for suggesting AIXG. It may just be the nano stock that I've been looking for.

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#19) On April 27, 2010 at 7:25 PM, Nickalisk (46.04) wrote:

Portefeuille,

I'm curious, What do you do in your sedentary life?  You seem to spend a lot of time managing this fund - do you work in the financial sector? 

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#20) On April 27, 2010 at 7:52 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

it doesn't take all that much time. just a spreadsheet and a yahoo finance portfolio. I am a theoretical physicist.

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#21) On April 28, 2010 at 8:56 AM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

nice - been holding on to some GLW...might get into some VECO and AIXG...they went down a decent amount yesterday like everything else

 Hey Port - Which 10 stocks (trading in US) would you buy today from your list of outperform calls and / or list of favorites; those with best chance to end up being nice returns?

Thanks.

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#22) On April 28, 2010 at 11:47 AM, TigerPack1 (97.45) wrote:

Will you or won't you bail out Greece... We need to know portefeuille?

Why doesn't France just get a coalition of the willing Euro members to bail out Greece; France can take over the 9 billion Euro loan envisioned from Germany?  France is loaded with extra capital and loves chasing bad money with good, I hear.

Why not just kick Greece out of the Euro and make the Euro a solid alternative to the U.S. Dollar again?  Ben would love you to do this!  That's why the Americans (Federal Reserve) are unwilling to print an extra $40US billion, or we would bail Greece out with American taxpayer money that can never be repaid... Ben wants a lower Dollar and slower global economic growth to repair bank balance sheets and get the U.S. rolling again in another year or two.  A strengthening economy the rest of 2010 will destroy his ZERO interest rate, free mony forever pipe-dream (as in pipe-bomb about to explode).  Booting Greece would accomplish many of Ben's objectives currently.

In a week, the IMF (via the FED) will give Greece some money to buy another month of negotiations, I suppose.

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#23) On April 28, 2010 at 1:03 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#21 I don't have such a list.

#22 okay, hehe ...

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#24) On April 28, 2010 at 10:03 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

hey port - just meant if you "had" to pick 5 - 10 of your favorites....

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#25) On April 28, 2010 at 10:09 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

also, do you aixg and glw even more; especially aixg after its dip recently?

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#26) On April 29, 2010 at 8:57 AM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

#25 - do you LIKE.....

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#27) On April 29, 2010 at 4:34 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I think I already have enough lists, hehe ... I will leave the post-selecetion to the readers.

AIXG announced results today. I think they were more or less "as expected". I still think it is best to hold a basket of LED/lighting stocks.

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#28) On April 29, 2010 at 4:35 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

selecetion

selection

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#29) On June 01, 2010 at 3:47 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Canaccord Adams Upgrades Universal Display (PANL) to Buy; A Bright SID Conference Highlights OLED Ramp

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#30) On June 01, 2010 at 3:53 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#423) On April 06, 2009 at 5:57 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: PANL - 9.50 - outperform

(from here)

 



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