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lquadland10 (< 20)

Let me tell you what is happening from a bookseller's view.



February 10, 2009 – Comments (15) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , ABX , AUY

I have been very busy at work. What are people buying. Gun Magazines. Amo pressing books. The Army Survival Guide. Books on  canning and making dried beef. Hunting and Dressing books. Books on solar showers and solar what not. Education books for Home Schooling. What are the customers telling me. They are buying amo and guns and food supplies even more so than when Bush made in in the first time. These are everyday people who are very well to do and very grim and serious. It is getting bad out here and no one seems to take it very seriously. So see what stocks you should buy in order to include  what people are stocking up on.

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 10, 2009 at 6:52 PM, SharpSEO (50.57) wrote:

Interesting... I saw a story on today about how gun stores are running out of ammo to sell. Mostly 9mm, .45, .22 (not a great survival round, but cheap I guess). People are definitely freaking out.

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#2) On February 10, 2009 at 6:57 PM, Imperial1964 (94.08) wrote:

I went to the nearest Wal-Mart to buy some .22 ammo and they were sold out save 150 rounds.  Normally they have tens of thousands.  The guy said they order the bulk packs but they only get one or two in and they are gone in a few hours.

I happened by another Wal-Mart (in the big city) and they had only a few thousand.  They had 4 bulk packs left, only in the Federal brand.

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#3) On February 10, 2009 at 6:58 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

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#4) On February 10, 2009 at 7:15 PM, CoastalTrader (97.50) wrote:

The books are interesting but the gun sales probably have more to do with fear of regulation than anything else.  Search news for "gun sales".

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#5) On February 10, 2009 at 7:28 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

CoastalTrader no regulation has nothing to do with this. It has to do with the immagration bill that in it is a fast track of the spp to get rid of the boarders and form the North American Union. Canada Mexico and the U.S. and Unaversal Healthe Care and Now the cencus being taken out of the Comerence area and put under the white house. It is real bad. See the 4 prior post.

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#6) On February 10, 2009 at 7:31 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

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#7) On February 10, 2009 at 7:40 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

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#8) On February 10, 2009 at 7:43 PM, amassafortune (29.21) wrote:

ATK - Alliant Techsystems makes the Federal brand. Olin OLN makes Winchester. From their recent charts, you can see that they have not been great performers, despite the great demand for ammo. The military volume of ATK far exceeds that of the commercial market. Military contracts for ammo are not as lucrative as you might imagine. WalMart squeezes margins for both manufacturers just as they do with all their suppliers. 

The other factor for why ATK and OLN have not made huge profits on ammunition has to do with commodity prices. When copper was up over 300% in 2007 to early 2008, early buy and hedge decisions locked in a higher rate for metals, especially copper. Sales volume was very weak during the summer of 2008. When demand picked up in October 2008, production was still working off $2+ copper when the spot price dropped below $1.50. 

ATK, OLN, PMC (Korea), etc. can all crank out high volumes of ammo quickly. The people buying guns and ammo out of fear are hoarding, not shooting. Expect good availability and lower prices for ammo within the next two months for .22, 9mm, .40, and .45 calibers. .223 and 7.62 supplies will recover soon after that.  

As for the increased interest in survivalist literature, this has been a trend for a couple years now. I just heard a statistic that higher-earning men are being particularly hard hit by layoffs. Women, with lower average wages and salaries, are being retained. Connecting booksellers' observations to changes in the culture and economy is probably a very good leading trend indicator.  

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#9) On February 10, 2009 at 8:04 PM, Imperial1964 (94.08) wrote:

The ammo sales have more to do with the fear of taxation and to a lesser extent regulation. 

.45s and 9mm are more self-defense rounds.  But what seems to be surprisingly scarce is the .22s.  Those are target and small game rounds.  They are also the most commonly fired rounds because they typically cost between 1 and 2 cents each and are not powerful enough to cause unpleasant recoil.  They are not particularly dangerous and are the least likely candidates for government regulation.

I've come to the conclusion that the .22 sales are primarily a pulling-forward of future demand (i.e. stockpiling), primarily out of fear of taxation.

As for the larger caliber pistol rounds, the argument could be made that the purchases are made out of fear of increased violent crime, plans to commit such crimes, or fear of social unrest.  However, how many boxes of ammo do you need to commit crimes or protect yourself?  No, this is people stockpiling, primarily out of fear of regulation.  .45s and 9mms are likely targets for gun regulation.

If you read the President's record on gun regulation and took note of his position on the board of directors of the Joyce foundation from 1994 to 2002 you might have reason to stockpile.


Disclosure: Long ammo.  It's a bull market, you know.  Those are awful rare these days. ;)

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#10) On February 10, 2009 at 9:05 PM, ikkyu2 (98.00) wrote:

Your post made me laugh.  Peter Lynch tells the same story in _Beating the Street_ - about cocktail party chatter in the early 1980's.  People who had never been out of a city were learning to hunt, fish and make beef jerky.

Unlike yourself, however, Mr Lynch found this to be a buy signal. 

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#11) On February 10, 2009 at 9:31 PM, Harold71 (< 20) wrote:

Despite my personal hoarding over the last 12+ months, the local Walmart has managed to keep an ample stock of ammo., OTOH, appears to be a supply management "victim" in the ammo crisis...yes I helped out there as well :).

Ammo is in a massive bull market.  Who knows how long this bull can run!

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#12) On February 11, 2009 at 10:09 AM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

ikkyu2 What is different from the 80's is this is a world wide collapse. No these people are not from the city but ranchers and others who have large tracks of land. You in other States do not know how this is going over in Tx. and let me tell you they have passed mad as hell and the motto don't tread on me with a steel look in their eye. It is the calm and grit determination in their voice that tells me. They are stocked to the gills with food supplies camping supplies and there is a faint echo of remember the Alamo in the air. Many are ex military also and they should know what is going on. Everyday housewives are coming in asking for books on the economy and scared about the new world order. If they can see it they soon the rest of you will see it. Less than 2 years now is my prediction. But then again I am just a bookseller. I just tell you about the trends out on Main Street in Tx.

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#13) On February 17, 2009 at 1:39 PM, walt373 (99.87) wrote:

anyone know some good stocks that make guns/ammo? ;)

be greedy when others are fearful...

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#14) On February 17, 2009 at 1:41 PM, walt373 (99.87) wrote:

nm about the question, i see amassafortune has it covered

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#15) On February 17, 2009 at 1:52 PM, vmirage (82.49) wrote:

it's the end of the world! run! buy ammo! IF they ran out, make your own out of your cars! Just make sure they're made in japan first.

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