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dpdoor (< 20)

Let the healing begin



December 20, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GE , BAC

When the dow broke 1100 in 1999 I warned people that the dow was too high, off course I was resented for my opinion. After climbing even higher the market finally started to back off. The pattern showed us we were ready for a major correction. 9/11 hit, the market crashed but recovered before a recession formed because of the government bailed us out so quickly. They had a national disaster and no one complained about a strong bailout. Because we recovered so quickly the market became over confident and shot up.

In Oct of 2005 I saw a pull back in my customers spending. The market shot up in March of 2007 and I told everyone to get out of the market. I said the market could crash 20 to 30% any day but for sure no later then Oct 2007 (unfortunately their brokers told them the opposite)

I also said if the stock market problems ever made the headlines to get out and it would be the start of the biggest recession in their life. Because the 1987 and 2001 recessions never really took hold that this one would make up for it. In Oct 2007 the 10% pull back was just a shot over the bow.

People wanted to get back into the Market thinking that it was a bargain. I told them the market hasn't even crashed yet. I said it would go to 8500 (I had calculated that in late 2006). I told people then and now buy when the dow is below 8500. Of course no one agreed with me the consensus was the market (and housing) always goes up.

Now I am saying we are at the bottom of the cliff. We crashed and are picking up the pieces. Some (companies) will survive, some will die, some are starting their climb back up. Many are in shock and despair and the feeling of hopelessness will linger. Wall Street is still in shock and could do anything (up or down) but as far as the consumer is concerned they are willing to move forward if they could just block out the doom and gloom of the Wall Street gamblers.

Because of my business and the people I deal with I usually see things a couple of months before the kids on Wall Street so I don't know what they (Wall Street) will do today but soon they will see what my business sees.

The help is here from the government. If they do what they promise and if the mortgage rates stay under 5% they can save what's left of the economy and we can start healing.

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 20, 2008 at 8:53 PM, djemonk (< 20) wrote:

It would be nice to hear that we're either at bottom or close to it.  The goldbugs say the opposite and it seems like they still expect the economy to drop to effectively zero and stay there for a decade.  While I'm in favor of holding gold, that's a major bummer to listen to day in and day out.

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