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XMFSinchiruna (26.55)

Let's Play Kick the Can



March 07, 2011 – Comments (35)

35 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 07, 2011 at 8:15 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:

Endeavour Silver is moving to the Big Board!!

This is a huge rite of passage for this incredibly well-run company! 

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#2) On March 07, 2011 at 8:42 AM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

First Great Panther, now Endeavour. Wow! I hope my mighty mouse makes its way off the pink sheets at some point.


By the way: The programs on the can in the cartoon above are as good as ghosts as far as I am concerned. When I think about my retirement I don't even factor them in. I think something will be in their place when I start reaping the rewards from my IRA but imagine they will be less effective.

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#3) On March 07, 2011 at 8:58 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:

The gold:silver ratio has busted beneath 40:1, placing an exclamation point after the recent break through the modern-day lows in the 41-43 range.

Silver's chance of restoring a 16:1 ratio with gold is looking better every day. Not for nothing, but at 16:1 silver would trade at $90 at today's gold price, let alone at price gold will likely fetch once the ratio is reached. AT $2,000 gold, silver would reach $125. My longstanding secondary silver target of $100 (after my primary $50 target) is a conservative call reflecting that expectation of secular reversion to the long-term historical ratio.

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#4) On March 07, 2011 at 9:17 AM, MoneyWorksforMe (< 20) wrote:

Sinch, how do you feel about impact silver after this recent run-up. I'm seriously considering starting a position after performing considerable DD. My only concern right now is the technicals...

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#5) On March 07, 2011 at 9:22 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:


Well, I haven't sold any. :)

If the RSI reading makes you nervous, one could consider a graduated entry process ... something I actually recommend utilizing heavily in this rapid-rise environment.

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#6) On March 07, 2011 at 9:41 AM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:

It looks as though today could be exciting. I see that silver is up to or nearly at a record high, SLW is hovering somewhere between 2% and 3% over Friday's close.

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#7) On March 07, 2011 at 9:51 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:


P.S. Look at GPL's chart over the course of its breakout from <$1 to $2.90 ... looking only to RSI one might have surmised GPL was too dangerous to chase. As today's price of $4.80 confirms, it was not. Just food for thought. This is a long-awaited repricing event for quality silver miners, and technical indicators will occasionally show warnings signs that should be carefully observed, but not necessarily feared.

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#8) On March 07, 2011 at 10:07 AM, Bays (29.25) wrote:


I'm pretty sure your rating was <20 during the low of 2008?  I also remember bears calling you out on that rating, possibly GMX?... Great comeback!


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#9) On March 07, 2011 at 10:34 AM, silverminer (30.16) wrote:


Thank you. Most of that recovery in my score was realized by just sitting tight with my ill-timed commodity plays that suffered badly from the 2008-2009 correction.

And yes, I caught some serious flack for the decline in my score. GMX went so far as call the eventual reversal in my score from its lows a "contrarian indicator". [I couldn't find the link, but I remember it well.] For the record, before that horrendous collapse, my Sinchiruna profile had once held the #1 spot among CAPS members with the "Yes" charm (those who have never red-thumbed a stock). At the worst of it, my CAPS score actually entered the bottom 1 percentile! 

Out of curiosity, has anyone out there in Fooldom ever been in the top percentile, then the bottom percentile, and then the top percentile again? I should write a comedic retrospective about it. :)

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#10) On March 07, 2011 at 10:37 AM, MoneyWorksforMe (< 20) wrote:


Funny. I used the same logic before reading your comment to pull the trigger on it this morning. :) 

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#11) On March 07, 2011 at 10:46 AM, Bays (29.25) wrote:

Wow, great turnaround indeed.  I'm sure you're the only to accomplish that given your weighting in metals and that you've been here longer than most people.  Maybe if there is another crash, alstry will be able to claim the same!

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#12) On March 07, 2011 at 11:17 AM, Bays (29.25) wrote:

Just watched a live interview with Peter Barnes of SLW at PDAC on BNN.

I will upload the link when it becomes available, but basically he remains very bullish on gold and silver.  Expects silver to go north of $50 and gold over $2500 within the next few years.

Commented that a yield between 5% - 10% in the future is certainly possible.  They will continue to either look for more agreements, or return cash to shareholders. 



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#13) On March 07, 2011 at 11:22 AM, kdakota630 (29.13) wrote:


First, I can back you up on your "discussion" with GMX.

Second, I think I hit 99.75 at one point before bottoming out at either 0.06 or 0.08, and then a high of 99.96 to where I am now.

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#14) On March 07, 2011 at 11:30 AM, silverminer (30.16) wrote:


Glad I wasn't the only Fool to board the ultimate roller coaster ride. :) Congratulations on your comeback as well!

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#15) On March 07, 2011 at 11:44 AM, Turfscape (< 20) wrote:

Cato wrote:
"By the way: The programs on the can in the cartoon above are as good as ghosts as far as I am concerned. When I think about my retirement I don't even factor them in."

Cato, I've been giving people that advice for 12 years now. If you're counting on receiving Social Security payments as part of your retirement plan, then you are not planning properly and WILL fall short of your goal. The sad thing is the one person I most needed to heed this advice completely ignored mother.

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#16) On March 07, 2011 at 12:30 PM, catoismymotor (< 20) wrote:


I am sorry. That must weigh on you. I'm glad you have been spreading your advice for so long. I am sure you have helped a great many people adjust their plans to their benefit.


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#17) On March 07, 2011 at 1:45 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:


Great Panther Silver Increases Mineral Resources at the Topia Mine 1:02p ET March 7, 2011 (Market Wire)

GREAT PANTHER SILVER LIMITED (TSX: GPR)(NYSE Amex: GPL) (the "Company") is pleased to announce that Roscoe Postle Associates Inc. ("RPA") of Vancouver, B.C. has delivered an update to the ongoing mineral resource development at the Company's 100% owned Topia Silver-Gold-Lead-Zinc Mine in Durango, Mexico. The 2011 RPA mineral resource estimate comprises Measured & Indicated ("M & I") Mineral Resources of 171,000 tonnes at 864g/t silver, 1.56g/t gold, 7.53% lead and 4.37% zinc (7.44 million silver equivalent ounces), a 36.3% increase over the 2009 resource estimate. In addition, RPA estimates 285,000 tonnes of 868g/t silver, 1.5g/t gold, 6.5% lead and 3.7% zinc (11.91 million silver equivalent ounces) in the Inferred category, a 109.3% increase over the previous estimate.

"The significant increase in our resource base at Topia is a validation of the longevity of this high grade silver-gold-lead-zinc mine," stated Robert Archer, President & CEO. "Considering there were no compliant resources when we bought the Topia Mine, we have consistently increased the resource base with every drill program, while increasing production at the same time. We have a lot of confidence in the future of the Topia operation."

The 2011 RPA mineral resource estimate provides updates for the Argentina vein (Argentina Mine), plus new mineral resource estimates for the Don Benito (north and south veins in the 1522 and Crucero 9N Mines), Recompensa (Recompensa and Rincon Mines), Cantarranas (Hormiguera Mine), San Jorge (San Miguel Mine), San Gregorio (San Gregorio, Mina 7, and Durangueno Mines), El Rosario, and La Prieta veins.

The estimate was based on a minimum NSR value of $US130 / tonne (corresponding to the 2010 direct mining and processing costs which are 77% of the total operating costs). This is applicable at Topia since the general and administrative ("G&A") costs are $US38 / tonne. Current operating costs for the Topia Mine veins are $US130 / tonne ore mined and processed, and any additional resources to the mining plan would require no increase in G&A costs and reduced unit mining costs. The 2011 RPA mineral resource estimate assumed (1) actual concentrate transport, and smelter treatment and refining charges in effect through 2009 and 2010; (2) RPA long term estimates of metal prices as of February 2011, and typical plant recoveries for 2010, in Table 1; and (3) minimum mining width of 0.3 metres. Capping was individually applied to each of the veins making up the summary in Table 1.

This estimate replaces those by Wardrop in 2009 and 2006 for the Argentina and various other veins on the property. The breakdown for the RPA mineral resource estimates on the Topia property is given in Table 1 below. The estimate has increased over that reported in 2009 (see Company news release July 21, 2009 and Tables 1 and 2), mainly due to inclusion of new veins that were being explored and mined but were unreported as mineral resource. A direct comparison of the Wardrop and RPA mineral resources is not relevant due to differing metal prices and minimum NSR values, as well as estimating methodologies; however, the overall percentage increase is shown in Table 3 below.

The production rate from the Topia mines is increasing each year and is planned at 36,000 tonnes in 2011. Additionally, there are other mineralized veins that are not included in this resource estimate. By applying reasonable estimates of 50% mining dilution and 80% mining recovery, management expects the current resources to support a mine life of at least fifteen years. It is anticipated that, with additional drilling, the resource will continue to increase. This "rolling resource" is typical for underground mines as it is often not cost-effective to define a large resource/reserve in advance of mining.

While most of the current resource base came from Great Panther Silver's diamond drilling and underground development, the resources estimated in certain veins (e.g. Argentina) on the property came largely from the verification of Penoles' sampling, on levels that are planned for access later in 2011 and 2012 and are still intact. The majority of Great Panther Silver's mining to date has come from new mine development on veins reported in these estimates. There is lesser production from other veins that are not included in this update and these may be estimated in future resource updates. The new total contained metal for the mineral resource categories is shown in Table 2 below.


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#18) On March 07, 2011 at 1:53 PM, kdakota630 (29.13) wrote:

So that's why it took off the way that it did all of a sudden.  Thanks again, TMFSinchiruna, as always.

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#19) On March 07, 2011 at 1:56 PM, Gonzhouse (24.56) wrote:


 "AT $2,000 gold, silver would reach $125" at a 16:1 ratio.  If true, your forecast of SLW hitting $100 is conservative, given they would have about $121 of profit per oz. of silver.

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#20) On March 07, 2011 at 2:07 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:


I know, I characterized that as a conservative call at the time. I consider most, if not all, of my price-specific calls in the pm sector to be ultra-conservative in nature.

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#21) On March 07, 2011 at 2:45 PM, Rags2Riches08 (< 20) wrote:

Look at GPL run    


Thanks Sinch

I remember your $6 target a while back

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#22) On March 07, 2011 at 3:04 PM, kdakota630 (29.13) wrote:


Any thoughts on these guys? 

PC Gold Inc. (TSX: PKL)

I'd never heard of them before (although there are plenty of companies I'd never heard of before) but at a quick glance they appear interesting.

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#23) On March 07, 2011 at 3:07 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:


I don't recall the context of a $6 target, but I have also indicated I'll be holding for a double-digit share price for GPL (though I'll likely book some profits along the way).

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#24) On March 07, 2011 at 3:26 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:


The way Fools have acquired a surging interest in pm micro-caps lately, not only has the universe of stocks I have to track grown at a feverish pace, but I am continually flabberghasted by the degree to which it's possible to still have companies I/we have never heard of after all the time and research that I/we have done in this sector.

Keep in mind, Fools, that the vast majority of the unproven resource plays will likely never succeed in developing an asset to production. With so many companies available,at some point one approaches a formula for diminishing returns by forever expanding the number of companies we track. The true outperforming investors will be those who execute the most effective DD on the vehicles they've chosen, and routinely tweak their allocations accordingly.

I'm hardly one to talk, as I hold 80+ pm equities in real life, but I will say that the reason I don't own more is because I reached the limit of my ability to track my selections appropriately, even though researching these companies is my full-time job.

I will do my very best to keep up with the dizzying array of companies I've never before heard pf that Fools have asked me to look into lately, but to some degree I will also have to rely upon the strength of collective research and request that some of the more active pm investors convey an investment thesis for a given obscure micro-cap so that I can allocate my time accordingly.

The above statement in no way is directed at PC Gold, which I also freely admit to having never heard of. ;P I'll add it to my list (which now includes 25 names), and hope to have a look sometime soon.

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#25) On March 07, 2011 at 3:49 PM, kdakota630 (29.13) wrote:


Since I asked about PKL, it's up 48%!

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#26) On March 07, 2011 at 4:50 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:


Well, that was fast! :p 

So much for having time to perform DD!  Geesh!

Okay, let me modify my prior comment from comment #24 to read simply: buy buy buy!

I'm kidding, as I haven't had a chance to look it over, but at first glance of course it's always nice to have a prospect that has already encountered wide intervals of solid-looking mineralization.


PC Gold Discovers Largest Gold-Arsenic System Ever Drilled in Pickle Lake Camp; Wide Near Surface Intercepts up to 0.70 g/t Gold Over 137.50 m Including Multiple High-Grade Zones Such as ... 7:31a ET January 10, 2011 (Market Wire)

PC Gold Inc. (TSX: PKL) is pleased to report the discovery of an entirely new, large scale gold-arsenic system in near-surface drilling at the Company's Pickle Crow gold mine property in northwestern Ontario, Canada. The new discovery, named "Central Pat East", has been intercepted in three new widely spaced diamond drill holes, PC-10-105, 108 and 119, drilled in follow-up to gold-arsenic anomalies cut earlier this year in hole PC-10-062 (PR, August 16, 2010). The Central Pat East discovery is located approximately 2 km northwest of the Pickle Crow Mine, and 6 km northeast along the Cohen-MacArthur structure from the past producing, high grade Central Patricia Mine (+4,100 feet deep; 650,000 ounces of gold at 0.38 oz/ton (13.03 g/t)), which hosted arsenopyrite-rich mineralization similar in style to that of Central Pat East.

Central Pat East Discovery Highlights:

-- Considerable potential to delineate a substantial gold resource
-- Large-scale gold-arsenic system
-- Potentially amenable to both underground and open pit mining methods
-- Broad mineralized envelope encompassing multiple high grade zones, such
-- Hole PC-10-108: 0.70 g/t gold over 137.50 metres from 114.00 to
251.50 metres
-- including 2.05 g/t gold over 35.65 metres
-- including 3.26 g/t gold over 17.35 metres
-- including 5.36 g/t gold over 9.02 metres
-- including 26.58 g/t gold over 1.50 metres
-- Hole PC-10-105: 0.24 g/t gold over 134.07 metres from 79.90 to
213.97 metres
-- Large footprint: currently drilled dimensions of approx. 300 metres
north-south by 100 metres east-west to a vertical depth of 300 metres
-- Open for expansion in all directions

Holes 105, 108 and 119 all cut broad intervals of disseminated arsenopyrite with associated gold in metasediments (argillites, tuffs, banded iron formation (BIF)), including subintervals of semi-massive arsenopyrite with associated quartz veining and flooding. Gold-arsenic mineralization pervades all rock types and is not restricted to a particular lithology. All intercepts show a strong correlation between gold values and arsenopyrite content, accompanied by a relatively even distribution of values within the mineralized envelope.

Hole 105 was drilled to the southeast (bearing 140 degrees) at a dip of minus 70 degrees, and a 100 metre step-back to the north from hole 62 on the same section. Hole 108 was drilled to the northeast (bearing 050 degrees) at a dip of minus 52 degrees, perpendicular to the hole 62 - 105 section. Hole 119, a 100 metre step-back from hole 105, was drilled to the southeast (bearing 140 degrees) at a dip of minus 70 degrees. Assays for hole 119 are pending; however, arsenopyrite was noted from approximately 24.02 to 93.18 metres and again from 241.70 to 311.50 metres.

Commenting on the Central Pat East discovery, Kevin Keough, President and CEO, said: "We're really excited by this discovery as it's unlike anything we - or any previous operators - have ever drilled on the Pickle Crow property. It's a very attractive gold target: large, wide open for expansion, near surface, and offering plenty of potential for generating a substantial resource. Better yet, it's just 2 km northwest and within easy reach of our Pickle Crow mine, and would be highly complementary to our development of that asset. We're continuing to aggressively drill the Central Pat East discovery, supported by our strong balance sheet, including the proceeds of the $10 million financing we closed just a month ago."


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#27) On March 07, 2011 at 5:56 PM, richthegeek (< 20) wrote:

The $2K+ for gold and $50+ for silver would certainly make my portfolio look good, but I do worry about what the dollar and the economy will look like when we get there. Seems to me the underlying causes for these increases will bring the house of cards that is the equities market down.

Thanks for all of the info, Chris. We all are benefiting from your hard work.


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#28) On March 07, 2011 at 6:50 PM, magnetpal (< 20) wrote:

Too bad, I had PC Gold and sold it some time back:(.

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#29) On March 07, 2011 at 6:52 PM, kdakota630 (29.13) wrote:

I think the reason for the spike today was an e-mail that went out from the National Inflation Associating recommending the stock.  The e-mail and spike in volume are pretty much simultaneous.

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#30) On March 07, 2011 at 10:14 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:


In the spirit of teamwork, here's an update on Paramount (PZG):

It closed at $4.42 today.  My average cost is $2.36, thanks to you.

Although admittedly a laggard compared to many of the stocks I've learned about via your musings, it looks like it may have additional appreciation potential.  

Sky Pilot


March 7, 2011 Paramount Gold Announces More Positive Results from Nevada Project: New Resource Estimate in Progess WINNEMUCCA, NEVADA--(Marketwire - March 7, 2011) - Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. (NYSE Amex:PZG)(TSX:PZG)(FRANKFURT:P6G)(WKN:A0HGKQ) ("Paramount") announced today that assay results from 14 new core and reverse circulation drill holes at its 100% owned Sleeper Gold Mine Project in Nevada have likely expanded the project`s resources and enhanced its economic potential. A new NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate will now be prepared incorporating all available data. Completion of the resource estimate is expected in June, 2011.


Drill testing of the Facilities Target was designed to off-set previously drilled gold intersections in order to establish projected extensions of the mineralized structures in this zone. A total of nine holes were completed, all of which encountered mineralized intervals.

Paramount`s interpretation is that several of these intersections, in conjunction with previous drilling, will show continuity of structures within the Facilities Target zone, enabling the calculation of additional resources. All of these intersections are also likely to reduce the-ore-to-waste ratio within the Facilities Target. The full impact of these results will not be known until the current resource model is modified to incorporate these new data.



Commenting on the drill program, Paramount CEO Christopher Crupi said that "the key result here is that we are now in a position to complete a new resource estimate of the mineralized area which should significantly enhance the value of our Sleeper Project and provide a sound basis for the preparation of a Preliminary Economic Assessment. We expect to demonstrate that Sleeper is one of Nevada`s premier non-producing gold assets held by a junior company."




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#31) On March 07, 2011 at 11:03 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (85.24) wrote:

Chris, once again thanks for all your help.

But I also have to pat myself on the back since I did a lot of DD. I learned my lesson early on about blindly taking tips.

Which leads me to my question. When I first started investing (before I joined the Caps communitty) I got a tip from my brother in- law about Lode.OB. Trading at .07 at the time.

After a 200-1 reverse split I still own it. I was wondering if you've ever looked at this company.

My thoughts are that they actually have gold in the ground, but there running out of time and financeing to actually start producing.

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.


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#32) On March 08, 2011 at 6:44 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:


Absolutely right! As I said to someone else recently, you and you alone execute your own trades, and deserve the lion's share of the credit for making positive investment decisions.

You have to give me more to go on for Lode. I at least need a full company name so I can efficiently Google it. Oh, wait, you're talking about Comstock (I just recognized the ticker). Comstock just raised $35.75m in equity in October, which is a pretty decent sum for a non-producer, and a monster sum for a company with a $70m mcap. I see much of that capital involved "exchanging all of the Company’s previously defaulted senior secured debt and related obligations for new equity". You never want to see your company defaulting on debt obligations. That's a big red flag. But, they did raise the funds and recapitalize, they have a decdfent-scale M&I resource in place, and with historical mine sites it is often feasible to fast-track redevelopment. I have not completed any real DD into the company, and so I can not offer a specific recommendation, but I advise that you scrutinize their plan for getting into production very carefully. 

Also, take a moment to research Sterling Mining as a case study in worst case scenarios.

Other red flags that scream out to me include one of themost horrendous multi-year charts that I've seen, and on a related note I would need to know the context for prior spikes in the chart like the run to $8 (adjusted) in 2008.

If you have been with this company for a while, trust the management, and want to see if they can steward the asset through to production after scrutinizing their strategic plan, I will not discourage one from making a wager on this type of story in this environment ... but just know that it's a wager. I personally keep the scale of my speculative wagers very small. There are far surer plays out there, so consider wagering only what you are willing to lose.

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#33) On March 08, 2011 at 6:45 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:


Thanks for posting that for the community. I had seen it, and my reaction was that further finds of this nature could go a long way toward easing my concern that the market moved too far, too fast on the Don Ese discovery.

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#34) On March 08, 2011 at 6:48 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:


If the lessons from past experience hold in this instance, then, I would expect anyone with interest in PC Gold to do better by waiting for that frothy spike to erode somewhat before initiating positions. 

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#35) On March 08, 2011 at 7:27 AM, Bays (29.25) wrote:

Interview with Peter Barnes of SLW

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