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GoodVibe4Ever (< 20)

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Let's play ball, fakakta!

Recs

21

December 04, 2008 – Comments (54) | RELATED TICKERS: URE , TNA , ERX

Fellow Fools,

My first picks in CAPS were placed 25 minutes before the close and executed near the close as I planned. All of them are bullish but don't be quick to judge me as fakakta!

I am a FORCED trader since mid 2007 and a bear trader at that. It's obvious now that this market is not an investor friendly environment where all bulls were slaughtered time after time.

I only swing with the bulls when I spot a major bear market rally. Friday, November 21, 2008 was one bottom I picked successfully and I still believe it will hold. Until proven wrong, I am on the side of the bulls and adding more long exposure on all pullbacks. When we get overbought on short-term basis, I hedge my long positions with puts and ultra-short ETF.

For example, On Friday, November 28, 2008 I sold half of my longs that I bought the week before and hedged the rest. I still have those hedges on my books but I'll cash them soon. I still expect another leg down from today's low where I will add more long positions.

I put my money where my mouth is. So, today's picks are an attempt to resemble my own REAL trades. Most of these picks are REAL ones that I executed with my broker on November 20 and 21 and Dec. 1st. I just started CAPS few days ago so I waited for today’s pull back to try to come as close as possible to my real entry points.

I can't add to my CAPS picks any option positions or my hedge swings that I hold less than a week. So, I'll post any major updates to my swing moves in the comment section, if any occur. So, keep an eye on that if you're interested in knowing more details about my exact real trades.

For my short-term predictions, I expect the down side from here is 796 S&P with an upside target of 1007 and maximum of 1072 in the next 3 months. That’s a whopping 44% gain from the lows of 741. For my long-term predictions, I still have dire ones for the market in 2009 but this I’ll save for another post. We're not done by any means and the worst of this once in a lifetime -mother of all bears- market is yet to come.

But for now, let us play bulls. Let's play ball and put the bears on the run. I hope this added some value to your thinking. Be happy, do good, and the rest will be taken care of. That I believe! Fool on!

GoodVibe
Strength & Honor

54 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 05, 2008 at 12:41 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

I am ready to pull the trigger on my REAL long adds in this leg down as I mentioned in my post above. My target is low 800/high 700 S&P. Current 829 and heading to test today's low of 818.41, which I believe will be taken out today.

GoodVibe

 

 

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#2) On December 08, 2008 at 11:16 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

It's time to take some of the load off here. Buying hope and selling despair is my way of living. We have 99% chance that we will pull back from today's current high @ 911 or as high as 920 late in the day. We're up too fast, brothers and sisters! Talk is cheap and politician Sunday talk is nothing to hang your hats on. I sold 25% of my longs and opened puts in IWM, XLF, and SMH. Best!

Current S&P 908

 

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#3) On December 08, 2008 at 4:55 PM, TigerPack1 (88.76) wrote:

Your mind just seems to work on a different level than the rest of us!  Have you ever taken an IQ test?

Sprinkle on a little luck and you have replicated 6 months of my hard work in one week on this game!

Remember me when you are running Goldman Sachs in 5 or 10 years, I may ask for a job sweeping the floors!

-GNIK

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#4) On December 09, 2008 at 7:37 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Today we pulled back as expected to a very measured level @ S&P 885. We're ready for the ROCKET towards new highs. We can stall or even pull back little bit more before we launch the major and final attack at the bears' positions @ 920 (50MA). Their defenses will fall underneath the charging bulls where it will be the bulls strong hold for the second phase of that rally. Any pull back from today's low (especially S&P 865) is a GREAT buy but once we get to 950+, buying is not a good idea and 1000 is a GREAT sell/short all you can get your hands on.

GoodVibe
Strength & Honor

TigerPack,
Thanks dude for all the too much to believe compliments you throw at me. I am just a simple man who blessed by heaven. Lately, your changed heart regarding me in a big way is something I am thankful for. It means that I finally was able to deliver my message. And by the way you don't need sweeping any of their floors with your score. You’re sweeping the bears’ pockets :) Fool on, brother!

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#5) On December 10, 2008 at 9:12 AM, TigerPack1 (88.76) wrote:

Nice call on the shipping companies.  I don't really follow them, but they have been trashed in 2008.

I am looking for an S&P500 reading above 1100 before I reconsider my bullish stance.  I am projecting a March-April date for that to occur.

I bought some DYY (double long a commodities index) in the real world yesterday in the 5.60 range.  I believe it to be the best leveraged, dual play on a weaker Dollar and a strong rebound in commodities during the first half of 2009.  I have a $12-$15 target in the spring for the position.

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#6) On December 10, 2008 at 6:01 PM, TigerPack1 (88.76) wrote:

Perhaps in three months when you are #1 and I am #2 in this CAPS game, we can start a hedge fund and call it:

Goodvibe & Gnik

Has a nice ring to it!

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#7) On December 11, 2008 at 4:49 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Patience is paying off! We touched my downside target of S&P 865 (today's low 868.73), which I said is a GREAT buy. Putting my money where my mouth is, I bought what I sold Dec. 8 and doubled it. I also sharply reduced my put hedges that I opened on Dec. 8 as well. Hey, no body went broke taking some chips off the table. It was a trade and trades are meant to be booked.

Now, I am sailing in a boat full of stocks, ETFs, and call options. Actually more than a boat, it's like a Cruz ship (Pirates need not approach).

Yep! You can call me this, if you like, but truly I am far from that. I am VERY disciplined and always know how and when to take my loss, if necessary, and move on. It's a corner stone in my trading style. I do my homework very well, recheck it twice, execute my trades, and leave room to a mistake or two but make sure that I might trip but never fall. Capital preservation is the first step towards profitability.

I believe we made A SOLID bottom last month. I traded it and made enough to be aggressive buyer with firm stops (Nov. lows).  That said, if I didn’t had that gain as my rock to lean on, I would do the same as I did today. It’s a very good risk/reward trade and any downside from today’s low -if any- will be recovered quickly. Let's Rock& Roll Fools!

I hope this find you happy, strong, and healthy as well as your loved ones.

GoodVibe
Strength & Honor

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#8) On December 22, 2008 at 4:27 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

I mentioned in this post that I’d be buying ALL pullbacks. In my world, today's lows is a nice pull back that I bought into it. Stocks and calls across the board were added to the pirate ship but more in energy, small caps, basic materials, financial, and semis.

I believe from today's higher low, we're going UP all the way to the New Year where I'll be liquidating most of my longs and hedging against the rest. The other scenario, which I greatly doubt,  is we pull back until the New Year and then rally most of January. Whatever the outcome, I am comfortable with adding more long positions on weakness and selling strength.

Hope this added value to your thinking.

GoodVibe
Strength & Honor

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#9) On January 06, 2009 at 6:30 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Good Morning for those who read this,

And a better morning for those who didn't....

As I mentioned above that I'll be liquidating my huge long positions before this rally fizzles. I did some sales, though small, last Friday. Small because I still believe there is some more meat for this leg up. I'll sell selectively any strength in our way going towards S&P 1005 starting from 950 and will go to revisit the bear's camp around 975. S&P is currently 927.

I didn't lose my conviction that there will be another leg above 1000 but I love to swing. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. 

I hope this find you well and swell.

GoodVibe
Strength & Honor

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#10) On January 06, 2009 at 4:51 PM, TigerPack1 (88.76) wrote:

Kudos!!!

A Top 50 ranking, with 90% accuracy and 3000 points is about as good a start as any of the other 70,000 chimps in this game (including myself).

I love your point total per pick!

If you can make some more excellent picks, like you did with your market timing in 2008, I give decent odds you can get in the Top 10 this spring or summer.

The only fly in the ointment is if the market rises another 10% in January without you.

-GNIK

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#11) On January 06, 2009 at 10:09 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Kudos back at you tiger!!! You're smashing the competition.

In real trades, I usually look for possible high return stocks and ETFs to trade. I make sure to filter any stock that doesn't meet that criteria. So, it was easy to get the hang of picking only choices that out perform the S&P to guarantee a quick ascending and level the playing field with those who are here before me.

I believe -with humility- that I'll keep picking high return picks and crack the rank of top 2 or 3 before the end of spring. I hope this only for one reason - so I can expand my audience who usually follow the top players. Then, I’ll have better chances to deliver my two cents and pay back some of my dues to those who warned me two years ago.

I expect a fierce competition from the top 20 especially the new comers. It's fun and I hope they are enjoying it as well as I do. Number of people here are very smart and collectively I hope we will be able to give the community our fair thoughts. We stay together; we survive.

At any rate, the best is yet to come. Keep up the good work and I wish by March, you will heed the call this time. Do you remember S&P 1260? For now, we will enjoy a nice rally. The first leg up is near completion and the second one will come after a leg down coming in few days to a week. I still have large long positions in real life but I am lighter now and will sell the rest in the upcoming days. I wanted to close Caps picks to focus solely on positioning myself to the next leg down. Stay in touch brother.

GoodVibe
Mr. Lucky

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#12) On January 07, 2009 at 5:13 PM, TigerPack1 (88.76) wrote:

I think the U.S. Dollar is toast in 2009.  I don't know how you borrow several trillion yearly from overseas investors (adding up the trade and federal budget imbalances now projected) without completely destroying the "value" of each Dollar.  This is the type of money printing that has gotten third world countries into hyperinflation situations.  The US Dollar Index chart just completed a failed retest move yesterday of the late-2008 highs, that should usher in a substantial drop in value during the coming months.

If the global economy stabilizes, Israel bombs Iran and the U.S. Dollar falls some 20%-50% vs. other currencies, we're going to see another spike in oil prices above US$100 per barrel in 2009!!!

I have a very high weighting in commodities generally at this super-depressed price level in CAPS (and the real world), that should explode in price and points as hard assets try to hold their value (purchasing power) against a declining Dollar that seems quite inevitable now.

I don't remember the last time lease rates for gold and silver were ABOVE Treasury rates either.  Perhaps this has happened in the past, but you may have to go back to the 1970s to see such a thing.  US$1,000 an ounce gold and $15 silver are all but sure bets right here for 2009.  My guess is we'll see $1,200+ for gold and $20+ for silver in the second half, if not sooner.

Some of my IRAs should "convert" to Roth varities either today or tomorrow according to my broker, so I am a little relieved to see the big downer in the market today - as I will receive a little smaller tax bill next year.

-GNIK

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#13) On January 12, 2009 at 3:01 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Alert - 3 PM Monday 01.12.09

I bought this downturn @ S&P 868 and got what I sold last week. I bought across the board. DXO EDC FXI UYM ERX TYH KOL USD TNA URE. If we go lower, I'll double and add more options. I'll be back soon with more details.

Let's play ball. Let us be THE BALL.

GoodVibe
Strength & Honor

S&P Current 686.86

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#14) On January 12, 2009 at 4:24 PM, TigerPack1 (88.76) wrote:

Welcome Back!

I still think I will get to 5000-6000 points and 80-85% accuracy with a 10%-15% move higher in the stock market and a real bull move in oil and gold.

You should get well above 90% with your accuracy and perhaps 5000-6000 in points with your current picks also.  That should put you ahead of me in the CAPS ranking with the better accuracy.

We will see what happens after the spring, when you will likely turn bearish again, while I remain more positive for the rest of 2009 regarding the overall market trend.  (If this is how we position ourselves for the second half.)  I may consider taking my points and a breather from the game over the summer, if I can get into the Top 20 page on the bull move that is now at hand.

Interesting that last year was the Chinese year of the "rat" and 2009 is the year of the "ox!"  Just in case you are looking ahead to 2010, it is the year of the "TIGER!"

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#15) On January 12, 2009 at 11:13 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Hey tiger, I got this for you (I can't make this up if I try):

"The Ox year is a often conservative year, one of traditions and values, not a year to be too outrageous. It's a year of harvest, when we reap what we have sown in the past. This applies to the financial crisis the world finds itself in due to past excesses. Those chickens will really come home to roost in 2009."

I didn't say it! :) And get this:

"In 2008 the Water element arrived and people fell into fear around US mortgage problems and coming recessions. In 2009 it's Earth over Earth. Earth element is not fear inducing like Water and is about calmness – meaning people will stay conservative, playing it safe. So this is a year of continual cooling down.

However, previous Ox years have seen stock markets fall in Asia and the US, so we could expect the same again. In 1973, the Water Ox year, equity markets crashed after the collapse of the Bretton-Woods system, and OPEC imposed an oil embargo which rocketed up world oil prices. In 1985, the Wood Ox year, the Asian Pan Electric Industries company fell into receivership and all market trading was suspended in SE Asia. In 1997 Thailand dropped the Baht's value, causing a financial crisis which triggered a further upheaval across the region. Indonesian President Suharto was forced to step down following widespread riots caused by the devaluation of the Indonesian Rupiah. In short, Ox years have not had a great record with relation to markets and financial moves.

Earth industries include property, housing, construction, mining, insurance, and hotels. These will have an active year, as there is hidden Water and Metal in the Ox, symbolising money and productivity for the Earth industries. Unfavourable industrial areas in 2009 are those of Water and Metal. Water industries include shipping, transport, communication, and drinks. Metal industries include high tech, computers, banking, coins, engineering, skin care, and the auto industry. The absence of Fire in 2009 shows this area is not prosperous this year.

And here's your personal forcast and mine:

THE TIGER (Wood): (1914, '26, '38, '50, '62, '74, '86, '98, 2010)
"This is the year for keeping a low profile, Tigers. Because of the slow pace of the Ox year, it will be a frustrating time for you. You like things to be moving more quickly, so you will need to show restraint. Some Tigers will do well with money this year, especially the strong Wood Tiger."

THE RAT (Water): 1912, '24, '36, '48, '60, '72, '84, '96, 2008)
"This is a stable year for family life and will be a joyful year. Careerwise the Rat will take on more responsibilities and will feel the pressure of extra work. Perhaps a leadership role will emerge. It's a good year of steady progress, as you are favoured by the Ox. Look for assistance from other Rats, as well as Dragon and Monkey born years. You may clash with Horse people."

................

Once I finish my homework I'll come back to post my thoughts about today's trade. I wanted to come and post that for you when I stumbled upon it. Funny how things come your way when you want them. Be good, brother.

GoodVibe

 

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#16) On January 13, 2009 at 7:19 AM, TigerPack1 (88.76) wrote:

"THE ROOSTER (Metal):
(1909, '21, '33, '45, '57, '69, '81, '93, 2005)

Great opportunities for the Rooster this year, as you're well supported by the Ox. It's a good time to recoup any losses from the past. You can make great progress in your career, reaping rewards for your labour. Your close emotional ties bring joy. Your prestige and your reputation will improve."

I was born during one of the above years.

Actually 1985 and 1997 were excessively strong bull years for the U.S. stock market.  1973 was quite weak, but also the first year of a bear trend, not the second or third year like 2009 would be.  No doubt most investors will act conservatively in 2009, but that may prove a mistake in terms of making serious profits if stocks rise 30%-50% during the year.

Thanks for the link.

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#17) On January 13, 2009 at 1:17 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

After doing my homework yesterday and from today's action, I believe that for the next couple days if we don't start going up hard and fast, then we might get some launch delay. During that time and until options expiration on Jan. 16, the selling pressure will dry up and the bulls will back and fill at this level and absorb a possible stab down to S&P 850 - 860 range.

It's another great entry point with modest risk but HUGE returns. When the bulls pick it this time, there will be no let down and the bears will run for their lives. I will be adding more positions in these names FAS FXI TYH UYM TNA URE DXO.

Hope this added value to your thinking.

GoodVibe
Strength & Honor

Current S&P 870.48

.................

PS. I made a mistake on comment #13 when I said;  "S&P Current 686.86" Actually, it was 868.86.. A lot of 8 and 6 and I was in a hurry to post and go back to work. 

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#18) On January 13, 2009 at 3:20 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

ALERT....  ALERT

Elliot wave down that started on Jan. 6 is finishing.

The full wave bottomed @ 862.02 and we're heading north. Once 872.02 get offset, there will be no stopping.  

Current S&P  865.52

Keep in mind that until 872 got offset, there's another chance of a small leg down from here but will be offset quickly. So, I pulled trigger on my orders that I mentioned above. 

From here I will bide my time, hold my breath, and don't count them until I am off the table.

GoodVibe

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#19) On January 13, 2009 at 6:12 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Magic! That is Mr. Market.

We closed @ 871.79! What a tease. I guess I have to wait another day or two for Mr. Market to show me his hand.

GoodVibe
Strength & Honor

I am afraid now that I started to be little addict to blogging, reading and commenting in Caps. As if I don't have enough food on my plate. eh! But so far I love it.

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#20) On January 14, 2009 at 11:15 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

When we failed yesterday to close above my target, we got today the washout and the stops cleanings. I am starting my call options here (which I delayed starting if you noticed). I am still bullish and all this is just April showers before May flowers. Best!

Let's go get it pals. Keep the faith! Soon, it will turn around before you know it. :)

GoodVibe
Strength & Honor

S&P Current 837.15 (Low for the day)

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#21) On January 14, 2009 at 2:58 PM, TigerPack1 (88.76) wrote:

Looks like you are "all in" for the CAPS game.

REAL WORLD IDEA : LZB 

I bought a slug of (LZB) La-Z-Boy today.  I haven't owned the company in a long while.  It was a $10 stock in 2008 - today LZB is under $2 ($3 last week).  The market cap is something like $90 million, with $400 million in tangible book value (I figure at least $200-$300 million, even if they close some stores and write off some plant & equipment and inventory.)  They have more current assets than total liabilities, and the stock is a hybrid play on retail sales and furniture/home sales. 

It is something like our NLS friend, but has better brand recognition and overall appeal to all consumers.

As long as "sitting" doesn't go out of style, I think the brand name by itself is worth $200-$300 million!

LZB may trade above $5 a share very soon, which would just be back to its tangible book value.

The stock could be worth $10 or $15 in a few years; that's a nice move from the $1.70 I bought shares at this morning.

-GNIK

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#22) On January 14, 2009 at 5:55 PM, TigerPack1 (88.76) wrote:

CAPS game screwed up the S&P 500 close today, second time in a few weeks.

I think they calculated based on an S&P number some 2.5% higher than the real close.  Give yourself about 500 more points in the morning when it is corrected, if long 200 stocks.

Here is a post being deleted on the Yahoo message boards today for whatever reason (you be the judge),

"A lot of chatter on some other boards of an impending bomb raid on Iran, BEFORE Bush leaves office.

He doesn't want to leave any "loose" ends in the Middle East, like his father did in Iraq.

The NY Times article was a head fake to get the Iranians to put their guard down, and the Gaza situation was an attempt to dethorn and dethrone the Palestinians with their stockpile of weapons BEFORE the operation.

Could this be the overseas "test" for Obama his first few weeks in office, Biden was talking about a couple of months ago???

Long list of other U.S. politicians and military policy characters, both Democrats and Republicans, are predicting something to this effect could take place in the near future.

I have been buying oil assets the past many weeks in anticipation of Israel bombing Iran sometime in early to mid-2009. US$100 a barrel oil in 2009, on sale for $35 today?

Perhaps Putin is trying to use the natural gas shipments to Europe as leverage against such an operation in Iran?"

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#23) On January 14, 2009 at 6:36 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

For Bush, NOTHING will happen of that sort. Israel is just trying to break Hamas' back before Obama get in office and ask for restrain.

Oil at these levels in not worth producing because of costs so it must  recover back to at least $60 - 70 levels. To be honest, the best trade was to short oil through DTO (that is a bull who I really missed). And please don't bring UNG to my attention. This is the weirdest chart I ever saw in my life. :)

For LZB, I believe a lot of these stocks will easily double and triple but I have a lot of food on my plate and most of my fingers are in many pies already. Thanks for the tip anyway. Enjoy!

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#24) On January 16, 2009 at 11:06 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Yesterday, I had a very good day picking that elusive bottom @ 817.04 while I was chatting there. It was lively conversation and you can read it to know my Elliot wave counts. Though I believe we made A bottom here, there's still another possible chance we didn't (yet)! This might be leg down followed by this current leg up, then another one down where we bottom and launch the real big one. First challange will be 860 but the big one will be 882. To confirm that we bottomed, we must top 943.85 (a big feat) before we claim complete victory.

S&P current 848   

GoodVibe

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#25) On January 17, 2009 at 6:40 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

GoodVibe. Seriously, thanks for taking the time to write down your thoughts and analysis. It is very informative and generous!

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#26) On January 19, 2009 at 7:32 AM, TigerPack1 (88.76) wrote:

2009 OUTLOOK

I think the "best" year to look at to prepare for 2009 in the U.S. stock market is 1975.

Nixon resigned in  late-1974, and the stock market quickly started to act constructively soon thereafter.  This situation was vey similar to the 1933 experience when another weak, low popularity president, Hoover left power and FDR took office.  The "Depression" years that were largely created by the inaction of the Republican president Hoover (Just like Nixon and Bush) to recognize the depths of the economic problems facing the nation, whose lack of leadership allowed a major recession and stock market meltdown, reached an emotional bottom just before a new president and renewed optimism about the future came to Washington DC and America generally.

Both 1933 and 1974 saw the previous two worst multi-year bear markets in stocks the last 85 years.  The 2007-2008 bear market approached the modern record 50%+ drop of 1973-74, and it appears Obama's victory and assumption of power this week will be a MAJOR step in the right direction in terms of confidence and renewed consumer spending into the springtime of 2009.  His plan to put construction workers back to work in a massive infrastructure build program (that are the largest unemployed block of workers after the real estate bust) will be a welcome stabilizing factor for our economy in 2009.

Back in 1975 (by the way several of the market timing services I subscribe to have a record buy signal now in their indicators similar to their 1974-early1975 readings!), the market rallied strongly into late spring, then took a breather in the summertime and early fall, stabilized in the late-fall and rallied strongly again in November and December!

I am projecting a 1050-1100 S&P 500 number by May 2009, then a 10% or so drop back to 950-1000, then a strong yearend rally that puts the S&P500 around 1200 by December 31, 2009.

From the current 850 number, 1200 represents a +40% gain.  For the calendar year a +35% price jump (nearly +40% when including dividends) would rank up there as one of the better years for investors the last three decades!

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#27) On January 19, 2009 at 1:47 PM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

Hey GoodVibe...Thanks for replying to my post on GMX's blog...thought will post on your own.

My question is how are you ascertaining the start point. That is critical ain't it. Also I'll be honest - I am a believer in business cycles and they have their own periodicity/rhythms. However, whether this falls under "Grand" or "Super" one doesn't know.

I have a simple counter proposition: Could the bear of 2000 ( Which really should be treated as a top - because both the Nasdaq,Dow adn S&P topped out) be treated as a beginning of "say" a Supercycle bear ( ie 10+ years)

What happens to the waves in that scenario? I am not the expert - so I am assuming you'll be able to tell.

TIA

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#28) On January 19, 2009 at 1:48 PM, d1david (29.31) wrote:

thanks Goodvibe for your posts!

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#29) On January 19, 2009 at 8:32 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Thanks guys for your kind words. I hope I am adding some value here and looking forward to read and learn from others.

For more details on my wave counts, how I arrived at them, and more forecast about the next move, stay tuned to a dedicated blog. I'll do no justice to those detail oriented buddies if I just give headlines instead of thoughtful and deep analysis. This way you can arrive to your own decisions. Unfortunately, I don't have enough free time for such post.

For now, my policy is to buy dips and hedge/sell rips. We’re in an uptrend move within a larger bear market. As long as Nov. low is holding (99% chance), I am bullish, trading accordingly, and buying all pullbacks. I'll not add to my current positions if we rally because I am fully positioned from here and will start liquidating when we cross the 1000 - 1050 mark. S&P current 850.12 

I wish you as much as you wish for yourselves and little bit more.

GoodVibe

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#30) On January 20, 2009 at 10:32 AM, d1david (29.31) wrote:

/es at 829.25- needs to get above 832 for a nice little rally, or this might be a short term failure and we might retest 816

10:32 am 

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#31) On January 20, 2009 at 11:11 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Since 817.04 to high 858.13 there's 3 lower lows that is forming a declining bullish wedge that should but not must resolve to the upside. At the same time there's a serious potential we break 858.13 to finish the full side down wave {B} in an (a) (b) (c) format but don't break Nov. lows! Or we can have both first more upside in (b), then we go down to see (c). Quiet difficult to say here. We must get 858 back as soon as possible or the second scenario will play out.

S&P current 828.11

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#32) On January 20, 2009 at 11:35 AM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

I am staying tuned.....especially since Davids joined in.

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#33) On January 20, 2009 at 2:20 PM, d1david (29.31) wrote:

cmon 812.. hold

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#34) On January 20, 2009 at 2:30 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

cmon 814.27.. Turn around

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#35) On January 20, 2009 at 2:36 PM, d1david (29.31) wrote:

looks like it held (pin through).. might get a short covering rally from here to 832

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#36) On January 20, 2009 at 2:46 PM, d1david (29.31) wrote:

decision time... 760 or 850 depends on this afternoon's action

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#37) On January 20, 2009 at 3:14 PM, TigerPack1 (88.76) wrote:

I am thinking of selling some gold exposure to buy more UYG (ultra financials).  This may be the buy of my lifetime if Obama sets up a "bad" bank this week or next!

-What say ye???

2.93 for UYG, S&P 500 at 810

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#38) On January 20, 2009 at 3:30 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

If you don't have position in the financials, then FAS will be a better return if you can stomach the pain and position your portfolio correctly.

I like energy, basic materials, technology, and small cap more but I have position in FAS that is under water and I have no desire to add.

We will have that rally but the question now is from which levels. 785 is next support! We got (a) (b) (c) in {B} down but if we go further down, it's a different game with different counts. 

May peace be with all of us.

GoodVibe

S&P current 811.33

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#39) On January 20, 2009 at 4:02 PM, TigerPack1 (88.76) wrote:

Buffett's Wells Fargo is deep in the red the last few weeks.

He will likely be "the" most influential person in Obama's ear the next few days telling him what to do to help the markets.

I am sure rescuing the banking system, no matter what the upfront cost will be the first major decision made the next few days.  Waiting for an executive order bringing back the uptick rule on short sales either today or tomorrow also.

A bad bank that accumulates assets with the remaining $200 billion in TARP money would be a start.  They could accumulate bad loans with an auction at 10 or 20 cents on the dollar as originally planned in September.  The government could quickly accumulate $1 trillion or so in bad loans, while giving the banks hundreds of billions in fresh cash to shore up balance sheets for a couple more months, WITHOUT taking an equity dilution stake in the banks.  That or more of the "guarantees" like those given to BAC and C seem necessary.

Watching CNBC today, it is quite CLEAR to everyone that financials must be righted first, to get a new bull market going, and Wall Street is taking a wait and see attitude hoping that a "nationalization" of the major banks does not take place.  From Obama's speech today, he understands free markets must remain!

Bought gobs more UYG around $2.90 today; I think my average cost is now around $3.30.   Expecting a $10+ quote for the things by early summer.

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#40) On January 20, 2009 at 10:15 PM, Tastylunch (29.38) wrote:

Ah ok now I see what's going on, here you update this post through comments. I kept checking for new blogs.:-)

Ok so you are an Elliot waver? That does seem to be the predominant sucessful style of late.

David just curious do you use the Elliot Wave as well?

Goodvibe if you are a bull there may be no bigger slam dunk than shorting FAZ and the other bear levered ETFs, ETNs, they are destined to go to zero anyway due to the way they are structured (so less risk than going long FAS or what have you)   and are up way high after today...

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#41) On January 20, 2009 at 10:40 PM, goldminingXpert (29.52) wrote:

I got stopped out of FAS up at 10.50 and per my rules, I can't re-enter for a week (Got to keep emotions under control.) Thus I bought a couple of STT calls (-55% today for State Street!!!) along with some KGC puts (doesn't particularly matter which gold miner, they're all overpriced refuse at these valuations.) Other than that, and my RPRX puts (which is betting against fraud--not the market) I'm flat. Now that 820 went down, I have to assume 740 is next up
(and WILL hold, for now.) However, with the decline as overextended as it is, shorting here isn't worth it. Thus, I'll just wait for 750 and get long there. If we somehow get back over 820, I'll go long there, but I think you are entirely nuts to be long or going long here--there's no support here and no reason for a bounce other than being absurdly oversold (market can (and will) stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.)

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#42) On January 20, 2009 at 10:49 PM, goldminingXpert (29.52) wrote:

Sorry if my comments came off too strongly on my blog. I thought you had dissappeared, but instead you had just migrated. Anyway, glad to find this thread and I'll monitor it closely. I hope we get back to 850 in short order, I'm flat, but I know a lot of people trapped long and I hope you guys get a chance to get out without a big hit.

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#43) On January 21, 2009 at 12:46 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Tasty, I am new to blogging here and I really wanna keep up with you guys but you're blogging machines. :) I have many ideas and topics to contribute but time is not helping me. Keep it coming but excuse me if I get lost among your many blogs.

For David, I have very trusted friends that I depend on to pick Mr. market's mind. They are Elliot, Fibonacci, Gann, and Demark. I also use the regular technical analysis tools and indicators.

For Ultra ETFs, they are trading vehicles not for investing. I go long the bulls when they're ruling and long the shorts when they're in control. Think about it; FAS can double from $7 to 14, 21, or 28 but FAZ can't go down less than zero from $90. Don't you think? Shorting ETFs give you only 100% maximum reward but unlimited risk, but longing them have unlimited reward and only 100% maximum risk.

GMX, thanks and no need to be sorry my brother. Nothing was taken. Coming together will assure our survival in this business.

For your thoughts, I believe this is the beauty of technical analysis.. It's like art. Two traders will look at piece of chart and both will see two different kind of beauty. One will look to upside while the other will see the downside. Another will look for minutes, or hours while another will look for days or even weeks. I hope we all end up making money and be right.

Currently, I am not in a comfortable position after the financial slaughter today but my short-term sentiment (days to few weeks) is still bullish and I'll trade accordingly. Most of my analysis supports this view but the reward is getting weaker everyday and I might lean towards capital preservation instead. I wished for a better entry point but it happens once in awhile and I can manage to trade around it if it ends going against my worst expectations. I always make sure to stay solvent or take my losses when I can, not when I have to. So far, I am fine. Thanks for your good wishes.

GoodVibe

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#44) On January 21, 2009 at 11:05 AM, goldminingXpert (29.52) wrote:

Goodvibe, what are you thinking here? I'm getting awfully close to shorting the hole here if 800 goes down. What's your take?

I did just go long JBLU so I'd like a hedge of some sort.

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#45) On January 21, 2009 at 11:35 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Although we agree that the market can stay irrational more than anyone think possible, I have a rule to not short an oversold condition or buy an overbought condition. Risk/reward ratio is never on my side. The situation here is clearly oversold and any crash (if it happens) will reverse back quickly.

I feel more comfortable not to play in a tight playing field. That's me, the way I feel comfortable trading, and my take at this point.

Another positive technical here is there's a potential TD buy setup that will be perfected today as long as the close will be below 839.8. You have a downside target of 785 and from 800 that doesn't seem to be a lot to use as a hedge to your long position. That mean under 800 is a buy not a short.

Be happy, do good, and the rest will be taken care of. That I believe and hope to live.

GoodVibe

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#46) On January 21, 2009 at 3:00 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

As of this moment we have a nice rally. If we get another follow through day or two, then there's a great potential we preserved Nov. lows. First resistance will be 835-837, which must be reclaimed, defended, and built upon it. If we can't do it, the (a) (b) (c) down move will morph into 5 instead of 3 and the current wave up from today's low 804.3 to whatever today's close will be wave (d).

If you got disappointed that the Elliot wave is not meeting your desire everytime of an exact form, then I guess you're asking too much of technical analysis. For me, I can trust TA than any oracle and sure than any accountant.

S&P current 827.24

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#47) On January 21, 2009 at 8:21 PM, goldminingXpert (29.52) wrote:

And we finally get liftoff except in JBLU, my main long position at the moment. Grr. Well, KGC dumped enough to make my day profitable. Funny that I made all my profits off the short side on a day like today.

Anyway, congrats on having the conviction to stick out that bumpy stretch this week Goodvibe. I hope we can get up to 900 for you here soon.

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#48) On January 21, 2009 at 9:24 PM, d1david (29.31) wrote:

Tasty- I don't use Elliott, but do appreciate others work in it- I like the idea of it..

I mainly use fibs and time relationships and support and resistance levels, trendlines, channels, oversold/overbought indicators, etc...

---

I will be out till Monday afternoon- flying to Columbus to visit my sister who just had her first baby.

good luck all

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#49) On January 22, 2009 at 3:40 PM, Tastylunch (29.38) wrote:

GoodVibe4Ever

no worries man, I only blog myself when it's convenient so I'm no machine by any means. Usually for me that's 3-6 times a month. I try to limit it at that since there are more profitable things I can be doing (like shorting REITS)

Never used Gann or demark. Sounds like you use just about everything. Ha that's probably bit much for me, I like to keep it as simple as possible.so I only use the basics. overbought/oversold, S&R, Moving averages, trendlines and channels. I'm personally no good at Fibs so I don' use those. elliot Wave has had my interest since June but I've yet to feel confident in that I've mastered it.

I also use my interpretation of a company's fundamentals in most of my decisions. i find I trade better when I do.

d1david

Hey that's fantastic dude! Congratulations "Uncle David". ;-)

oh and thanks for sharing

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#50) On January 23, 2009 at 8:22 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Update: 

S&P

As per this chart I posted yesterday night for anchak, there's a potential downside still to 785 and then upside to maximum 900. I'll try to put more charts late.

Be happy, do good, and the rest will be taken care of.

GoodVibe

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#51) On January 23, 2009 at 9:40 AM, goldminingXpert (29.52) wrote:

Ah ha, now you and I are aligned. All along, I've said 900 would be the upside. I believe your current interpretation is probably accurate.

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#52) On January 23, 2009 at 11:07 AM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

900 makes ample sense......You see Goodvibe.....there's one thing...if you look back in the documented bears in history - with the exception of the 1929 bear - after the first correction - there was a decent Bull , which if you look back - Established HIGHER HIGHs and LOWER LOWs ( You have to estimate this on a cyclical sense using both local maxima/minima as well a traversing semi-regional ones - you are a techie , right?). And after that - basically everything got decimated by 90% downside (of course the bear rallies were big - they all had lower highs and obviously lower lows)

This did not happen in any other bear - ie the Higher Cycle to Cycle HIgh has meant a reversal of the bear.

Your targets were all calling that - Let me tell you also from painful personal experience from late Oct last year - my analysis led me to the same also - currently the 2 established levels are Oct 12/13 and Nov3/4.....Any top below this is still a bear. Infact now if the new rally does below 943 its a CONTINUING BEAR.

My 2 cents analysis.

I am going to look at the charts.

Keep up the good work.

 

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#53) On January 23, 2009 at 11:53 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

anchak, the difference between all previous bear markets and this one is this one is a grand supercycle which is life transforming and bigger than 1929. Yep! For now, one day at a time. I got your request posted here and I will improve the content along the way when I master this chart-posting thing. I have more to post and will try to do this in the weekend.

GoodVibe

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#54) On January 23, 2009 at 12:00 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

GMX -

According to the latest actions, this is the most appropriate one I can recommend. But if we break Nov. lows before going up first, this analysis will be out of the door. If we break the triangle up, then my previous analysis will come back to the picture. Until then, I am bullish but not as aggressive.

GoodVibe

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