Let's play ball, fakakta!
My first picks in CAPS were placed 25 minutes before the close and executed near the close as I planned. All of them are bullish but don't be quick to judge me as fakakta!
I am a FORCED trader since mid 2007 and a bear trader at that. It's obvious now that this market is not an investor friendly environment where all bulls were slaughtered time after time.
I only swing with the bulls when I spot a major bear market rally. Friday, November 21, 2008 was one bottom I picked successfully and I still believe it will hold. Until proven wrong, I am on the side of the bulls and adding more long exposure on all pullbacks. When we get overbought on short-term basis, I hedge my long positions with puts and ultra-short ETF.
For example, On Friday, November 28, 2008 I sold half of my longs that I bought the week before and hedged the rest. I still have those hedges on my books but I'll cash them soon. I still expect another leg down from today's low where I will add more long positions.
I put my money where my mouth is. So, today's picks are an attempt to resemble my own REAL trades. Most of these picks are REAL ones that I executed with my broker on November 20 and 21 and Dec. 1st. I just started CAPS few days ago so I waited for today’s pull back to try to come as close as possible to my real entry points.
I can't add to my CAPS picks any option positions or my hedge swings that I hold less than a week. So, I'll post any major updates to my swing moves in the comment section, if any occur. So, keep an eye on that if you're interested in knowing more details about my exact real trades.
For my short-term predictions, I expect the down side from here is 796 S&P with an upside target of 1007 and maximum of 1072 in the next 3 months. That’s a whopping 44% gain from the lows of 741. For my long-term predictions, I still have dire ones for the market in 2009 but this I’ll save for another post. We're not done by any means and the worst of this once in a lifetime -mother of all bears- market is yet to come.
But for now, let us play bulls. Let's play ball and put the bears on the run. I hope this added some value to your thinking. Be happy, do good, and the rest will be taken care of. That I believe! Fool on!
Strength & Honor