Listen to your gut. The voice of reason when it comes to Apple.
The only thing for certain is that the market acts like it is bipolar. Experts seem to overreact to every hill or bump in the road. If it is a bad day, it's not just a bad day, the end of the world is coming. For example, I liked Google when it was $600, so I started watching it. When Google hit $450 about a year ago, I had a gut feeling that Google was oversold and just to cheap to pass on. However, "expert" after "expert" said, Google only makes money from advertising and their earnings are shrinking and so on and so on. The "experts" said to stay away, so as a novice in comparison, I did. Now about a year latter Google is 800 dollars a share and working on all cyclinders. Apparently, now a days, Google can do no wrong and Apple is the bad step sister. And good for Google they deserve it. I only wish I had not listened to the noise, but listened to myself when there share price was $450. I have had similar gut feeling that stocks were to cheap from time to time. For example, I thought BAC was to cheap at $5, right before Warren Buffet stepped in and bought a large number of shares, of course after that it was $8 in a few weeks. I thought Apple was to cheap when it dropped to $80 a few years ago before it's run to $700. I thought Groupon was to cheap at 2.63, though I just sold half my position and would not buy it before it reports in feb. Now again I think shares of AAPL are to cheap but don't take it from me, listen to your gut.
I don't have a lot if money to invest so I am using options to express my view. I purchased a call butterfly Jan 2014 and Jan 2015. For Jan 2014, I bought one 550 call, sold two 625 calls, and bought one 700 call for about $650. $650 is the most I can lose, I can make up to 7,500-costs if AAPL is close to $625 in Jan 2014.
For less than one share of AAPL, I bought a January 2015 butterfly. I bought one 700 call sold two 800 calls and bought one 900 call for about $400 and I can make up to 10,000-costs if AAPL is close to $800 by Jan 2015.