Long SLV at $25.62
Silver is no doubt a fairly speculative trade, but because I'm trading it with a tight stop-loss that makes sense (i.e. below a critical support level) I'm willing to take a stab at this trade with a stop-loss at $25.40.
Commodities have, no doubt, been weak of late, and the triple bottom that is trying to form is what creates the basis of my trade. If it doesn't work out, I lose roughly 1% of my trade value, while on the other hand if the trade succeeds, I envision it playing out to the tune of 5-10%. With that kind of risk/reward one can be right far below 50% and still make a decent living trading the market.
After posting this trade, Springheel Jack (@SHJackCharts on Twitter) noted though that Silver has a confirmed rising support trend-line from 2008 low Friday by bouncing there. But today it is dropping below it. Different perspectives on trades are useful and reinforces the belief today, that I shouldn't give this trade to large of a leash if it doesn't play out according to my original thesis.
Here's the SLV Trade Setup.