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Look at this chart...

Recs

11

August 29, 2009 – Comments (93) | RELATED TICKERS: TCK , CENX , CNO

And when you look at this YTD chart of the S&P 500, I hope you see the two "legs" of this rally (new bull market that started in March). You also should see a gap / time between the legs when the market was going down (short correction) in part of June and July.

Now, see what I wrote in an e-mail I sent to a co-worker on 7/16/09:

Just in case you didn’t know: The new stock market run (up, of course) has started today:

BAC up 9%, FITB up 9%, NCS up 10%, CENX up 4%, DDR up 5%, CNO up 11%, HTZ up 5%, and TCK up 6%.   

p.s. I listed these stocks for him as he knew these are the stocks I had in my portfolio at that time.

p.s. Looking at this chart now, I have to say I was one week late to call the start of the second leg of this rally, but I think I still did pretty well with my "prediction" (I don't know if I can call it a prediction because I was so certain).

Market just continued going up since then... No corrections, no collapse... 

93 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 29, 2009 at 6:48 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Stupid me...what did I say...

 

I just noticed that I actually sent the e-mail on 7/13/09 so I had perfect timing (I always thought I called it on the exact day, but now somehow got confused with the dates).

Once again, the e-mail showing the date:

 

From:
Sent: Monday, July 13, 2009 11:57 PM
To:
Subject: RE: Stocks 

Just in case you didn’t know: The new stock market run (up, of course) has started today:BAC up 9%, FITB up 9%, NCS up 10%, CENX up 4%, DDR up 5%, CNO up 11%, HTZ up 5%, and TCK up 6%.

 

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#2) On August 29, 2009 at 6:51 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

And now, here is the e-mail I sent to the same guy two days later:

From: 
Sent: Wednesday, July 15, 2009 3:01 PM
To: 
Subject: RE: Stocks

 What a coincidence...Just two days after I told you the new rally has begun, DOW is up another 220 points today (as of 3 PM). Stocks from my list: BAC up 5%, FITB up 5%, NCS up 15%, CENX up 9%, DDR, up 10%, CNO up 8%, HTZ down 4% (pissed me off), and TCK up 8%.Not too shabby...

 

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#3) On August 29, 2009 at 6:56 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

And then on 7/24/09, I sent him this one:

 

From:
Sent: Friday, July 24, 2009 11:20 AM
To:
Subject: So, after all...  

…this wasn’t a “bomb” week as I was predicting.However, I’m happy with the gains I had this week (btw. FITB is up another 5% today, on a down day for the rest of the market – a very good sign after a 15% jump yesterday).I just hope the market will end the day on the down side (100-120 points down on the DOW would be nice). I sold Huntington Bank (had a small loss on this one) as it wasn’t performing as I had hoped, and I also think I found a stock that will double much faster than HBAN.With proceeds of HBAN sale, I purchased 100 shares of FIG (Fortress Investment Group) at $3.67.Hope to double my money in 3 months or less…

 

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#4) On August 29, 2009 at 7:04 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

I made the observation that the March rallied followed a rather simple curve on June 23 (see this post, the chart is from comment #15 of that post).

 

 

This is an update.

 

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#5) On August 29, 2009 at 7:04 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

the March rallied

the March rally

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#6) On August 29, 2009 at 7:06 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

Also have a look at this post for more examples of rallies of this kind.

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#7) On August 29, 2009 at 7:06 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

And than this one on 7/29/09:

 

From:
Sent: Wednesday, July 29, 2009 12:01 PM
To:
Subject: This one was pretty much flat...  … last time that I updated our spreadsheet. But I knew, I just needed to be patient with it…  

p.s. Attached to this e-mail was a print-screen-picture showing CNO being up 50% on that day... (don't know how to insert pictures in these posts...) 

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#8) On August 29, 2009 at 7:18 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Then on the same day, just a little later, another day:

From:
Sent: Wednesday, July 29, 2009 3:33 PM
To:
Subject: Don't try this at home
  

Bought 180 shares of MNI on 7/28/09, to see it jump almost 50% on 7/29/09 (see two pictos below).This is a second 40-50%-er today. Disclaimer: Professional driver on a closed course. Do not attempt. Unless you have really big cahones.

p.s. To this e-mail it was attached a picture showing confirmation of my buy on 7/28/09 (from my broker) with the price I paid for MNI, and also a print-screen-picture showing MNI being up 45% day later on 7/29/09...

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#9) On August 29, 2009 at 7:30 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Then I sent him this e-mail on 7/30/09:

From:
Sent: Thursday, July 30, 2009 3:26 PM
To:
Subject: What do you want for lunch and when? (as promised)  

Not a bad day today: CNO up 15%    CENX   7%   DDR   10%FITB     5%     FOE      7%     GCI       7%     LVS      11%     NCS    9%    TCK    8% 

p.s.MNI that was up 40+% yesterday, is my only stock down today – 10%    

 

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#10) On August 29, 2009 at 7:38 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Then on 8/7/09, I sent him this e-mail:

From:
Sent: Friday, August 07, 2009 3:14 PM
To:

Subject: Update

  The whole portfolio almost double from 7/8/09 (that was just a month ago): GCI up 92%, CENX up 114%, FOE up 178%...

Can all of this just be a coincidence???

p.s. Attached to this e-mail was a print-screen-picture of my portfolio.

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#11) On August 29, 2009 at 7:42 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

 Then I went on vacation the following day, and two weeks later when I came back from vacation, I sent him this e-mail:

From:

Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2009 1:43 PM
To:
Subject: C  

Sorry to be a pest with this stuff, but I was just wondering if you remember when I told you Citigroup is making its move, it’s time to buy?That was just a day before I went on vacation, so approx. 2.5 weeks ago.C was $4 then, $5 today. I know that’s not a huge jump, but still… 25% in a little over 2 weeks…  

And it’s still just a beginning…

p.s. Attached to this e-mail was a print-screen-picture showing C being $5.01.

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#12) On August 29, 2009 at 9:01 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

porte, I don't think that anyone could have predicted from your chart that the second leg of the rally will start on 7/13/09... 

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#13) On August 31, 2009 at 2:40 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

So Dragon, just curious, what did you email your co-worker today???

Also curious about what type of job you have....??? Most companies aren't too keen on employees spitting out emails in the middle of the afternoon on company resources on non-work related activities.  Some even install 'keyloggers" to capture stuff like that.  Those who don't could mine a message board such as this!  You must be in the investment business where this is part of your job, else you have a REALLY, REALLY cool day job. 

Temporary correction to the bull market, nice and healthy to get a few slightly down, or sideways movement. I use to be skittish and sometimes sold into some of the corrections....rookie mistake......

Good luck!

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#14) On August 31, 2009 at 5:14 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Today, I e-mailed my brother-in-law instead (as we discussed the stock market last night):

From:
Sent: Monday, August 31, 2009 11:17 AM
To:
Subject: Vidi ovo 

Zemaga, pogledaj ovo.Nakon researcha preko vikenda, odlucim danas kupiti 2 stocka: HLCS (biotech) i ETFC (E Trade), i vidi sta se desi sa HLCS-a.    Na prvoj slici mozes vidjeti da sam jutros kupio 200 shera po $1.58 (znaci dok je ovaj stock bio u minusu jer je poceo dan na $1.75).A na drugoj vidi koliko trenutno kosta: $2.82, a I vidi da mu je danas najniza cijena bila $1.55. Ja sam dakle kupio po maltene najnizoj mogucoj cijeni.Plus, to sto pise da je danas skocio 61%, to je za mene (posto sam kupio nize od $1.75) u stvari 78%...Da remiziramo: 200 shera X $1.24 = 250 Stojanki Majki Knespoljki u padze… A ljudi jos uvijek placaju onog Cramera… 

 

Basically, this e-mail said that after my "research" over the weekend, I decided to buy 2 stocks this morning: HLCS and ETFC.

I bought 200 shares of HLCS @1.58 (when this stock was down as it ended last week at $1.75.

Then I told him to take a look at two pictures attached to the e-mail: One showing my buy confirmation and one showing HLCS' price at that time: $2.82. I also asked him to take a look at the lowest price HLCS was selling for today: $1.55, meaning I bought it almost at the lowest price possible (today).

Then, I also said that HLCS' jump of 61% is actually a 78% gain for me (followed by a simple math).

At the end I said: And people are still paying that Cramer...

p.s. Attached to this e-mail was a print-screen showing conformation of my buy at $1.58 and HLCS's price at 11 AM.

p.s.2 HLCS ended the day at $2.80 or up 60%. :) 

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#15) On August 31, 2009 at 5:19 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

#14) On August 31, 2009 at 12:14 AM, dragonLZ (98.44) wrote:

OK. So I have decided to buy a few more stocks...

So after I did my research over the weekend, I have decided to buy the following stocks tomorrow:

200 shares of HLCS (Biotech). Current price: $1.75.

500 shares of LTS (Financial Services). Current price: $0.73

p.s. I changed my mind this morning and instead of buying 500 shares of LTS, I bought 200 shares of ETFC. Will still proceed with my buy of LTS (tomorrow or on Wed. at the latest).

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#16) On August 31, 2009 at 5:26 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Man, ETFC seems to fit your style, but you pulled HLCS out of the air like magic!  Too bad you didn't pick either or both of these for your CAPs profile at the same time. I bet you would have been up on the day!!!!

Sub $2.82 on HLCS would have been doable, but only until about 11:30 am. It moved fast when it took off.  Now it's below your buy price on profit taking....do you think it will go up again?

LTS doesn't fit your "bull theme" either, like HLCS, it doesn't seem to have a Mr. Market abused it downward track record.

Good luck!

 

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#17) On August 31, 2009 at 6:53 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

I tried to enter HLCS last nite as my CAPS pick, but I couldn't (rules, you know). ETFC I entered in my other portfolio (btw. I have one more, and only one more player). I started that portfolio (player) last night with this written as profile: With this portfolio I will show that we are in the bull market, and that it wasn't too late to jump in at the end of Aug. of 2009.

Btw. that portfolio beat the market today, it has 15 picks, all green thumb, all regular stocks, no reverse etfs, etc. I don't think many "bull portfolios" can say they beat the market today... not even my regular one... :)

p.s. More about LTS (as my pick) a little later... 

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#18) On August 31, 2009 at 11:26 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

TSIF, I see you made a very good call on SVA yourself. Nice. I liked this stock too (to buy in RL), but didn't think it will have such a big jump so soon.

I also see you shorted HLCS today. Man, how can you go against me? I thought we were friends...? Just kidding (but don't think you'll make many points on this one).

I bought HLCS as a long term buy or rather as a "soon $10-12 stock". I think thay might really have a product that's gonna start being a standard in the industry (labs, that is). However, 95% of my decision was based on its chart (all of my trades are).

LTS is a stock that I think will be a 10-bagger from today's price within the next 12-24 months. I'll post something about it when I have more time. And yes, I do agree this one doesn't fit my profile :)

Good Luck to you too.

p.s. Thanks for warning me about the e-mailing from work.

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#19) On September 01, 2009 at 4:18 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Hi Dragon, LTS looks interesting. I'll look for your rationale.

I've been playing they BIOS for quite awhile now.  Mr. Market is fickle in the short run. Unless a company is due up on the FDA calendar then I don't chase a pop, especially one on early data. There are three solid stages of testing, and except in unusual circumstances, or maybe a fast track orphan drug, the pops will drop back down.   The FDA calendar is a big help for me. If one pops on no news, it's usually a good one to short on CAPs, although the one week hold time could kill you if news is lingering. HLCS looks like a good stock, but the pop was too much this early in the testing cycle. True, sometimes it's best to get in on one you believe in extra early, while it's dirt cheap, but generally there is less risk and decent gain later in the test cycle.

There are also no sure things with the FDA.  SVA, however, being a China company has it's own rules. When you have an approved product, and a market, there will be a strong pop. This can die down though if the pop exceeds revenue potential. I might turn SVA at some point, but not for awhile.

Bios are a fun place to play, if you don't bet your mortgage! Sounds like you play conservative. It's good to have a few stocks in your stable that have a higher beta and more potential, but balanced with solid investments.

Not a good day for a bull. I'm expecting about a 5-10% correction total, so we are about 1/3rd of the way there after today.  There is also a lot of companies that got over valued for their current earnings ability. Those are the ones that will get hit the hardest.  It's actually a good entry point for some after they correct. They aren't likely to correct again if the bull market holds.

One thing about a BEAR and a BULL market, the line is never totally distinct, especially against all sectors.  I got burned on caps by some over speculation on some stocks, but I'm glad to get some of the points back this week. I expect some sideways after the 5-10% correction. Look for Friday to be a VERY down, or very slow day.  No Bulls or Bears want to hold over a 3-day weekend in an unsettled market.

Next time we get stability on the way up, it will be time to find the bargains or dollar cost a little more into the ones you held.

Good luck.  (It's a marathon with a twist...meaning there is a lot of potential out there to play a few a little harder while the volitility is on). 

 

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#20) On September 01, 2009 at 10:43 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Thanks for the post, TSIF. Read also your post about 10-baggers. Hope I'll get one, one of these days... :)

Have a few questions for you (as I see you know more about this stuff then I do), but don't have much time right now (had a long day at work).

Let's also leave LTS for another day.

Agree with you that there should be nice opportunities soon. Will spend some time this weekend thinking about the strategy for the future...will definetely make some changes...probably investing more in fewer stocks...will see...

p.s. If you were wondering: No, I didn't e-mail anyone today, Usually, I don't brag about my losses... :)  My RL portfolio was down 7% today. It hurts, but I'm still confident I'll win in the end...

Good Luck to you too.

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#21) On September 02, 2009 at 4:02 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Do spend the 3 day weekend exploring opportunities. I expect to go out on a limb late Friday afternoon and make some bull calls on options, stocks, and my CAPs plays. While it would be nice to wait for my guesses to play out, I'm looking for the market movers (MM) to return from the 3-day weekend and smile at how successful they ran the market down. IT might move mostly sideways the rest of September on little news and between earnings cycles, but overall, I do agree it should be a good time for the bulls. I'm hoping to close some of my bear picks here on caps by Friday afternoon. I dumped a few today.

Good luck.  The balance between enough stocks to diversify and enough to be able to manage and focus on is a tough one. I like about 12-15 stocks in my portfolio in different areas.  I play in the Pharamaceuticals for fun.

 Have a great weekend.

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#22) On September 03, 2009 at 10:25 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

IMO, market will be higher at the end of September than it is now. I know it sounds stupid (after only 4 days in red), but I think today was the first day of the new run up. I don't think it's gonna be a huge run, but a nice one (Disclaimer: I'm no expert).

One stock that I actually wanted to "write" about yesterday, but didn't have time, is HWD. I used to own it when it was going up from March lows, then sold when it started going sideways. (At one point was my worst performer in CAPS).

I think HWD is now ready for another push higher. I think it's going to hit $10-12 by the end of this month (now $6.82). 

Today, HWD was up 8%, I think just to make me feel better about my call / opinion :). I bought 100 shares today, and will buy another 200 tomorrow (unless we have a really bad day. In that case I'll wait to see what happens next).

Go HWD!

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#23) On September 04, 2009 at 9:28 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

With the market up more than one percent today, I feel very good about the call I made yesterday that we are in for another push higher. Good 3 weeks is what I'm thinking. We'll see...

HWD was flat today. Not too happy about it, but I do have my theories why is that maybe a good thing. We'll see about this one too...

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#24) On September 04, 2009 at 11:47 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

TSIF, Congratulations on the great calls on FACT and JAZZ.

I always liked your pitch on JAZZ, and just the other day wanted to reply with: You convinced me.

However, I never thought FACT is a great investment and always wondered why is Porte in love with it so much...

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#25) On September 05, 2009 at 9:47 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I grabbed 4 ETF's yesterday in anticipation of an up market next week.  I usually only get 2-3 when I make a gut call. No point killing your score over the silly things. By calling a couple of them once in a while, I feel that I'm still in the spirit of CAPs without turning it into a gamble for make or break.

JAZZ surprised me with that big of a jump. I actually sold some at $10.  (about 1/3rd position). I will probably be sorry later, but as with any pop with no FDA calendar news, it should drop some, but this wasn't your "average" pope...it's been a steady step ladder the last few weeks.  Hard to say what Tuesday will bring on that one if the big players decide to tag along.

FACT is a mix of proven drugs and a decent pipeline. The price between $10 and $11 was "fair". Then they put a big slice of their cash into a partnership with Trubion for a product that is still too far away from revenue, (even if approved). Mr. Market knocked it down to into the low $8's as punishment.  The low volume this past week lets a stock price move more than normal.  The $8 wasn't going to hold next week regardless of the biogen offer.  

Valuing these beasts if very difficult. I only started playing them with real money about six months ago, and only in small quantities or with a handful of calls, (if they're a mature company and have them).

I keep learning.  SPPI reinforced a lesson I already half heartedly learned from VITA and BDSI.  For the smaller drug plays with limited market, the speculators are driving the price up and waiting to see how high it will go. Many sell on the "news" instead of buy on the FDA approval.  This trips some limit orders, people get confused, and the price drops.  The speculators are off to the next one.  You can see them pop in a round robin approach as the money moves. 

Good call on JMBA, its up about 10% since you called it last week!   Sub $1 stocks are fickle things. I've been riding HTM since the $0.80 range,  GEO.TO since about $0.40,  SMOD since about $1, UUO.TO since $1.80, etc.  A few shares doesn't add up to much, but it's fun to play along.  But then again, it would have been hard not to buy a stock in the last six months without some appreciation. I bought SMOD back in November.

Have a great weekend.

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#26) On September 05, 2009 at 9:53 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

PS. I'm on the fence about HWD. I rode it from sub-2 to over $4 and sold it. It still looks undervalued, but the deal with Kinross cuts potential profits. Still they needed the cash.  I'd certainly rather see a company such as HWD holding "inventory" in a recession than I would McDonalds!!! :)

HWD was a $40 stock about 18 months ago. You can't use this as a true metric for valuation, but if the fundamentals haven't changed, it does suggest some potential.  Some companies, such as the auto parts makers are so far in the hole and off their net tangibles, that it will take years to be worth anything near what they use to be...if ever.

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#27) On September 05, 2009 at 1:51 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

It wasn't me who made a call on JMBA...

Yes, I did notice your move on ETF's...so there is one thing we agree on... :)

Have you seen my reply to your UTSI pitch? I'm asking this because I see we have completely different views on stocks that have big jumps in a single day. You like to short them and I like to buy them. Of course, I look at a few other things too (usually just chart / price related)...

However, I do think it's a good thing you short them just in short term (3W or 3M), but I'm usually willing to go through a pullback as I never know when they are gonna start going up again (usually on another big jump, and it might be just 2-3 days later).

And one more thing: another one of my favorite players, Jakila, has the same "problem" you do (just my opinion): You short stocks during a bull market.

I took a look at you best performers (points-wise) and they all were green-thumbed by you. However, all your point-losers have been red thumbed (TEN -500%, PALM -300%,...). I think if you weren't shorting, you'd be among the Top 10 CAPS players. Once again, just my opinion... :)

Good Luck and have a nice holiday weekend.  

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#28) On September 05, 2009 at 4:30 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Forgot to mention some of my penny stocks.

FNSR is my first one. First buy (small position) at $.31 (now $.94). Have 522 shares at this time. Hope to see it at $3 in 9-12 months, but because of the merger with Optium in 2008, who knows what the upside is (how about $12 in 3 years or so). Disclaimer: Always an optimist...

LTS is my other one, which I bought just the other day (500 shares at $.69).  Most likely, it will be a slow mover, but I think it can be a 10-bagger in 12 - 24 months. Will soon post something about this one.

CHB, 400 shares at $.65 (highly speculative play).

GTN, 400 shares at $.95 (speculative, but high hopes). IMO, might be $10+ stock in 12+ months, $4- $5 short term.

Some other ones as just pure speculation: KERX, FNM, ETFC, and of course HLCS...  

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#29) On September 05, 2009 at 5:08 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Not sure where I even got JMBA, I tossed it on my watch list about the time you mentioned LTS....for some reason I tagged the wrong stock.  Something subconscous?? ???  Hmmm, now i"ll have to examine it closer.....those whispers in the ears can be interesting!!!! I'll have to look up some of your micro caps. We'll see if CAPs really kicks off a micro-cap version of the game.  They don't play well from a standard caps/points perspective, but do deserve some attention. Buying in small lots as you are doing can be educational and sometimes rewarding. If it does well, you will always wish you had bought more, but I'm generally over those internal discussions. You do what you do for the reasons you had at the time. Analyzing your moves and learning is worthwhile. Second guessing is NOT!  :)

I had some dealings with Finisar in a "prior life". I would not have guessed they would have tanked so far. They were priced for BK when you found them.  They don't look that bad off to me. They could pick up as the recession lifts if their products have stayed innovative.  They were average when I dealt with them.....

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#30) On September 05, 2009 at 5:26 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

LTS is a company that, just like its industry, was left for dead (investment banking, equity research, institutional sales advisory services for high net worth individuals), but has recently showed some signs of life...

I first purcahsed LTS in 2006 when it went from $.50 to $2.50 in 12 months (Discalimer: I made no money on this one). At that time, the interest in this stock was sparked by Phillip Frost buying LTS.

Quote:

PHILLIP FROST'S NEW VISION : 11/5/2006

BILLIONAIRE PHYSICIAN-ENTREPRENEUR PHILLIP FROST HAS A DETERMINATION TO MAKE A LOT OF NEW DEALS At 69, after earning more than a billion dollars building and selling Miami companies, Phillip Frost is a long way from retirement. "I’m going to take it one deal at a time, and I plan to do this until I run out of steam."  End quote. 

Led by Mr. Frost, LTS opened a bunch of new offices, moved to Miami (where the money is), and acquired a few companies. Basically, started growing...

 

Quote: " A NEW PLAYER IN INVESTMENT BANKING : 11/5/2006In what may be his most ambitious and challenging move yet, veteran company builder Phillip Frost has taken an old, ailing New York financial institution, Ladenburg Thalmann, transplanted it to Miami and hopes to build it into a major investment bank. ``I'm fully convinced it's possible and we'll do it,'' says Frost. ``There are so many new businesses being formed here all the time, and businesses need additional capital,... End quote.

Then, the bottom dropped out... Just like all the other stocks, LTS is back to its lows ($.50 in March of '09), but it stays on my watch list.

 

First reason I like LTS now: It survived.

Second reason: Look at this chart (sounds familiar, doesn't it?). On 6/26/09, LTS dropped 25% on almost 100 times average volume (9 mil shares!!!). It looks like everybody and his brother sold shares of LTS that day.

However, ever since, LTS is slowly, but steadily going up.

That is exactly what I like to see. It worked for me with SOA and MOD this year (which both had a similar heavy-unload-day in their chart), and I hope it will once again...

Go Mr. Frost. GO LTS...

p.s. Look at this chart of MOD (had a "dump" day back in February, up ever since, 950%)

SOA had its "dump" day in March, up 900% since then... 

 

p.s.s. This works only if a stock starts going up through at least one full quarter. I've seen a bunch of stocks that had its dump day one quarter, just to have a heavier one the next quarter. So, I might be too early into LTS, but I don't think so as it's moving up slowly, exactly the way I like it... 

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#31) On September 05, 2009 at 5:52 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

UTSI and shorting....

Dragon, you jumped into caps on the start of the bull market.  I don't know what your investing experience was before that. CAPS isn't that easy to play during a market turn. I shorted TEN and PALM, to name a few when the recession was still deep and when everyone thought a large percent of companies would go bankrupt. What history has shown and taught me for the next time, is that creditors are VERY reluctant to pull the strings on outstanding loans. They don't want to own a company nor force it into liquidating at pennies on the dollar. Some will still go under, but not as many as the market thought. Once you place a down pick on CAPS, even in the height of a recession when it'a  fairly good call and the market turns and you are negative, it's hard to weigh the fundamentals, lost points, and the accuracy points on caps.  The only way to get in the top 10 here is 88% accuracy or better.  You can have thousands more points than another player and the 25% weighting on accuracy will keep you down. This is not to say that you never close losing picks, just that if you think you have a chance that accuracy and points have to be weighed against each other. 1,000 points and 60% accuracy will make you an all star. New players are surprised and think the game is easy.  If you get in on an up or down cycle, then it is easy.  Turning a corner ain't so easy.  I should have closed TEN at a loss, but Mr. Market gave it a hysterical boost while I had my back turned.  30 days with no email/internet. No I wasn't in jail, just Papua New Guinea.  Boom, too late. Now maybe I shouldn't have shorted it to start with and that's my second lesson on the school of hard knocks. It aint' worth the ponts/risk to short a company that had a $20 stock value last year if it drops to $2-3, even if bankruptcy is a possiblility.  Lesson learned too late.

I went from an allstar to a propellor head and a long fight back up to allstar.  My bad calls look really bad now, but to fight your way out of a hole you have to balance accuracy and points. It's sometimes easier to get points back on a bad call as the market corrects.  What goes up must go down, but not necessarily...... and who knows how long. At anyrate the damage was done on TEN and PALM and in my opinion I'm more likely to earn more points in a backwards sorta way....:)

The root of your comment, however, is what about this "here bull market". Well, there are still dogs out there. Mr. Market may think that companies will turn magically to profitability and that they are worth what they were a year ago. Fundamentals will win out over technicals over time.  A company like TEN with a huge net negative balance sheet will NOT reward investors.  The runup is artificial speculation.  You can think all ships rise in a high tide and you are right for awhile, but some have holes in 'em.  If you think you are going to make market beating returns from a stock with an NET Negative balance sheet and HIGH debt that is losing money every quarter, then a little Graham, Buffett, and others is worth some time!! :)

I closed MAS and SKS yesterday after the correction gave me back some points. I was wrong on MAS.  SKS is bankruptcy material if the recession continues, but it has some deep pocketed investors. It was able to cut costs and go positive again. It ain't worth the current share price, but it's not going to come back to my $1.65 BK call either so write 'em off, learn and move on.  The damage it can do me on points is still real compared to what I might "win back" over time.   Closed, move on.

TEN, however gave me back 100 or so points on a correction and is still trending downward. The low cost entry that I bite on can get multipled exponentially in lost points or in points back if the market turns.   For every dollar it goes down I get 44 points back, for every dollar it goes up I lose another 44 points.  I think my damage is done on TEN. I think it's a good short from $15.31. It was a bad short from $2.26.  From a fundamentals perspective it's at a 2 YEAR high. PRE- RECESSION.  Why?  Speculation. Negative book value, negative earnings, negative outlook. The chance it will go higher faster than the S&P goes up in my mind is slim. I think the chance is higher it will go down. So bad call at $2.26, Mr. Market rules and he said it was a bad call. Mr. Market may wake up.  Shorting a $15 stock is not very damaging if you're wrong. Shorting a $2-3 stock can bite!

Similar with Palm. Look at their fundamentals. Cash poor, can't sell the pre fast enough to pay the bills. May be a buyout candidate. Probably won't come back into my pick range, but in my opinion, not likely to go any higher either, (buyout or not). So I could close, and I will before it can come back positive, but not before I get some points back. The damage is done.

Both TEN and PALM are VERY likely to use this artificial spike in their share price to issue more shares. TEN to pay down debt, Palm to cover operating expenses and better marketing.  An equity offering will dilute shares. Investors may see it as bad and drop the price to the price per share of the equity offering, or they may reward it as a sign that the dodo is less deep.  I think I'll probably play TEN and PALM until the equity offering or at least their next quarterly report. This is where you watch the technicals also.  A downward trend will trigger more selling. There is a tipping point where those who got on late to the game will weaken.  We'll see.

UTSI. Companies that have been in business for years, with no change in outlook rarely move very much.  In my pitch, I analyzed the reasons it might go up and I shot them all down. My best theory is an investor buying some shares. One has to be careful assuming that Mr. Market knows what he's doing, he doesn't. The retail investor is a speculator. 90% of the time the guy who jumped on because the ticker moved will get left holding the bag. If there was news it would have came out before my down thumb. I might get burned, but you can play CAPs for years with low volitility stocks and see your score slowly rise upwards. Then a recession or a bull market and you can't turn fast enough. I prefer having some fun on CAPs and I never assume that MR. Market is right on a small volume company that sees some share movement. Do  you know how many thousands of day traders have software that flags unusual moves, higher volume, etc. and they jump in. Let's say good news does come out for UTSI, what is that good news worth. I can give you a 90% guarantee, (yes, I can be cocky also...:)...that any good news is likely to be worth LESS than the 50% spike it made. Too many people jump in without knowing why something is moving. 

Anyway, I believe that there is trash in a bull market and treasure in a bear market. A good investor will find what others are missing.  I won't downthumb any sub-$3 stocks on CAPS because I think the company may go bankrupt ever again. But I will downthumb a pop that is irrational and be happy if I'm right 90% of the time.....90% accuracy is good in this game!! :)

I appreciate the feedback and the compliment....if you want to chat about any particular sub-$1 Billion companies then I'd invite you to the discussion boards.  TheStinkyFeet (TSF) board is geared for discussion on small caps. Stocks offered up on CAPS by a TSF poster get rung through the wringer and most don't make it to TSF CAPS portfolio. You have to be thick skinned and willing to learn and move on if you're outvoted. . Most of the other posters on the board don't have high caps scores on their own profile, but they aren't playing CAPs to win, but to to use it as a way to watch some picks over a long period of time.  It takes a lot of personal time and a lot of historical time to be a CAPS "player" instead of a CAPS user. Most people here are just caps users, so coming on strong about your score or opinions is usually a turn off.

PS. TSIF and TSF have no affiliation, and the abbreviations are coincidental.  TSIF is "THE SKY (IS/IS NOT) Falling, depending on what mood I'm in. Usually not!  :)

PSS. Market might actually still be sluggish next week. My "research" indicates that the four day week after labor day is still generally low volume.  Low volume generally means that don't believe everything you see! :)

 

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#32) On September 05, 2009 at 6:01 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

MOD, I can relate to. It was also tossed out as a BK, the world is ending candidate. It was hit by the recession, but it's positive on the books, showing good bounce back. Stopped dividends which ticked off investors, but saved it $22 Million this year.  Dividend paying companies lose investors if they cut dividends, but dividends, (when not funded by borrowing as some shippers and REIT's do) are a cushion you can fall back on.

Sounds like you like techincals. Toss in some fundamentals and you'll be humming. TEN and PALM are NET NEGATIVE everything. MOD has positive net tangibles and positive cash flows.  A positive cash flow will heal many ills.    Only a two minute poke on my part, so I can't say if MOD would be investable for me or how fast it will come back in the short run. I can tell you that MOD would NOT be a short for me here on CAPS. 

 

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#33) On September 05, 2009 at 6:08 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

SOA is pushing it's two year high in a recession. Cash flow edged positive, but barely. Net Tangible is negative.  BIG boy insiders dumping in a BIG way. SOA didn't deserve the thrashing it had, but it doesn't deserve the reward Mr. Market has given it either.  Again a quick 2 minute call. I might be tempted to down thumb that one. I certainly wouldn't buy it unless something has changed in it's business model that warranted the price increase. Fundamentals are a point in time. If the company buys another company, signs up some large customers,etc, then an appreciation in stock price is warranted. If the price is bouncing back because Mr. Market is speculating that's worth what it was two years ago, then it's not a good move.

Fundamentals and Technicals are a nice pair. They may not overlap at any given point in time, but they will start to come together.  :)

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#34) On September 05, 2009 at 6:13 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

OOOPS,. I recant my SOA quick call. Actually SOA has been net negative for three years (at least).  But it's coming up in value not going down. Gotta watch those LESS negative numbers in parenthesis.  Could be a good call.  Based on the increase in debt over the last two years, and not reading up on it (Technicals, Fundamentals and MIX in research!), it looks like they acquired someone.  It does look like it helped their cause. Cash flow just came positive for the first time last quarter. They seem to be growing the business.  NO SHORT from me!!! :)

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#35) On September 06, 2009 at 10:04 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Morning Dragon,

Just one last summation comment this morning after I slept on things.  Thanks again for the banter.

There are multiple styles and blends of trading. It appears from your posts that you are about 90% long term technicals. It drops, it pops, it keeps going up, a bull has it, buy it.

That's a very unusual model, but hey we're coming out of a recession and a fairly unique one in the way it broke down.  Many models haven't been tested. You might be right enough of the time to win.

You've been posting some of your comments and faith in your broad bull scenerio on blogs that are fundamentalists. A fundamentalist believes that the companies value can be estimated from it's books, quarterly reports, etc. He believes Mr. Market is inefficient and while he may rule in the short run, the long run will win out. A companies fundamentals may change in the long run, so the Fundamentalist may not be right in the long run. It may look like Mr. Market was right all along.  But this will be a rare occurance.

A pure technicalist is "usually" a trader, not an investor. They look at a snapshot in time, trade it and get out when the technicals change. So in your case, a long technicalist is not common.

Raising your views with pure fundamentalists is certainly a waste of time and energy.  You might not mix either with a technicalist whose looking at a shorter window of data and then getting in and out.

Although, again, this is coming out of a recession so who knows.  Personally, I don't think you will do well on caps in a long haul singling out companies that on a chart, Mr. Market left for dead, but suddenly took interest in them again.  Some of 'em should have been left for dead. Things change over time. While it's rare for a company out of a recession stronger than when they went in, and bang out new 2 year highs, it can happen.  They may have bought another company, a competitor may have closed, the new CEO may golf with the right potential customers, etc.  It's more likely that there will be a few high flyers that got grounded and don't come out for various reasons. So a beatdown in a recession, temporary spike from bargain hunters, and then back into the muck will be an occurance from time to time.

So, I'm a fundamentalist who generally finds there targets because something happened on their technicals. I do occasionally use screens to go straight after company's were I am looking for a fundamental/market divergence.  I look for Mr. Market's inefficiencies.  In real life and CAPS I buy 'em if they got kicked too hard.  (based on fundamentals).  If they get too much of a pickmeup from Mr. Market then on CAPs I shoot them. I rarely, but might in real life "put" them.  I do swing trade using "calls" as well.  If I'm wrong, then I could lose up to 100% of my coins. If right, the reward multiples.

If you like technicals down to the most minute movement then you might like the Elliott group.  They get down to the day to day movements of the market, trade it and get out. Most aren't doing well on a a CAPs score, presumably either Mr. Market is not cooperating on short term trades and they need a longer "wave" prediction to capitalize on CAPS because of the 7 day rule. Try russwild or binve for EWP.  There is short term and longer term "waves".

Again, it sounds like your camp if the long term technicals, not short.  And it appears you are investing the long term technicals, not trading them.

Thestinkyfeet I referenced is mostly fundamentals. So a good place if you just want to see how the fundamentalists think, (scary).  We talk Graham, Buffett, etc.  We talk 5 years out.

So just some summary comments that I see your style. You can't convince people to change stripes. Like religion, you can't get people to change their style or try to accept (let alone understand yours) in a blog!  :)  I do hope things work out for you.  If there was a perfect answer, then the people who had it got rich and ran off without sharing!!!!

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#36) On September 06, 2009 at 6:01 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

TSIF, I don't know where to start...

First of all, I appreciate your input. I think I learned a thing or two already. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

I know I have made a few enemies here on CAPS. Sometimes I just can't control myself. I know that's not good. I also understand that people are not going to change (including myself).

However, I do think that here on CAPS it is much more popular to be a bear than a bull. I'm sure that you too have read some bear comments that were the exact mirror image of my comments, but you thought they were OK. It's totally OK to say the market will collapse tomorrow, but it's offensive to say: This is a bull market...  But that' s a long story (and as both of us know, a waste of time to talk about it).

Sorry if I offended you by mentioning your "shorts". I didn't mean "I'm a better investors because I don't short". Not at all. It was just an observation (and I do honestly think that both you and Jakila deserve a better rating).

p.s. I'll comment on my investing style some other time...

p.p.s. Hope you are enjoing this long weekend (and finding some bargains for RL porfolio). I'm thinking about buying another 150 shares of CNO. It looks to me it could be a $6-7 stock in short order...

 

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#37) On September 06, 2009 at 7:54 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Hi Dragon,

You didn't offend me on the "shorts" comment. If you had offended me then if I had replied at all, then I would have used shorter sentences and shorter words. I think the average word size would have been 4 letters.  :)

If you can't explain why you did something, (trading/investing, your rationale), then it's time to go back to school.  In my case part of my rationale proved wrong in the long run, some hasn't matured yet, and in some cases maybe it wasn't wrong, but there might have been better rights.  At any rate, I had reasons, so I can reflect back on them and learn. 

I read your blog on your investments. I was down hard in Feb. as well. In real life and in CAPs.  I went from Allstar to negative 1,500 or so points. I could have hung it up both in real life and on caps, but I fought back in both. 

I'm not sure what brokerage you use, but even on a discount one, it sound like you have a few percent of your gains clipped by the trading fees. I usually limit my trades to a minimum $400, hopefully more, but I will dollar cost in or start a position on $400 sometimes. With an $8 trading fee that's 2%. If I trade out then that's another 2%.  So any less than that and I feel like the brokerage is making all the money.

As far as bear and bull. Not worth the fight. Play your game and see who Mr. Market crowns king over the long run. I don't both reading most of the perma-bear blogs or the perma-bull. The truth is always somewhere in the middle. I like blogs where I can learn or reflect.  Yes, you might get more of a bite back on one side or the other at any given time. Bulls and bears both bite at any given time of the game.

Nice to banter. Again, I wasn't offended, nor did I intend to offend. There are no right answers in this game.  Some look better than others, but time plays in as well. If you have a model that works then go for it. It sounds like you are open to modify, or adapt as you gain new perspectives. Keep it up!

TSIF

 

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#38) On September 07, 2009 at 9:38 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Tossing out a few quick reads. I could be missing something like I initially did with SOA.   You can file  them in your "what he said" basket. For anyone I disagree with you on, the person who is wrong owes the other one a beer.  Collection times/places TBD.  :) 

GTN, quick read:   Currently below book value, but cash almost depleted and high debt.  Will be lucky to last 6-9 more months without serious concessions from thier lenders and/or almost 100% collection of their receivables.  Even if they go BK, they most likely could dump assets for close to book value, so probably would not go below $0.50 per share. Very Speculative.

CNO, could be a comeback play.  The risk of the auditors putting "going concern" in their quarterly back in March sent them diving. They actually, however turned positive the last two quarters.  The quarterly still indicates that some serious debt is due to be paid in 2010 and they can't pay it out of cash flow and have no idea where they will get the money.  There is also talk of spinning off thier insurance division.  I suspect they will pull out of their problems.  If they can show profit the next two quarters then they will most likely shoot up in share price.  I believe GNW is a better play from fundamentals, but GNW has already taken a nice ride lately and probably doesn't have the potential of CNO should CNO recover.  Risk/reward? 

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#39) On September 07, 2009 at 3:10 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

TSIF, yes I do make a lot of mistakes, and one of them is investing small amounts of money in a particular stock (My wife gets pissed every time I tell her that a stock we have in our portfolio has doubled in price. She then usually says: "Let me guess. We had only $200 invested in it..." Unfortunately, a lot of times she's right).

There are a few other ones, but I don't like to talk about them as that makes me depressed.

Btw., I'm feeling down right now as I'm not happy with my RL performance. Made some great buys this year (actually had almost no bad ones), but my sells suck (way too early, hectic, undisciplined...). Very tempted right now to sell more than 50% of my stocks and try to invest more money in less stocks. However, I'm also afraid to do that as I got burnt once before (we might also be getting closer to the correction?). I also can't afford to lose much (if any) money right now, which also makes me pull the sell-triger way too fast.

So, right now, I'm just repeating this mantra: Be patient. Be patient. Be patient... You did well with what you had, and should feel good about it. Stay positive. Stay positive. Stay positive...

p.s. I first bought GNW on 4/7/09 @2.09, but sold way too early...

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#40) On September 07, 2009 at 6:22 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

The risk does no doubt may seem lower if you have more stocks and in a "normal" market, I would agree with that. I can tell you from experience that the more stocks you have in a market that hiccups down, the more DOWN your RL will be compared to the base market.  The inverse can be true as well.  The balance is knowing your stocks and knowing the market will zigzag, and don't be overly anxious to sell on a single down day, or to set your stops too loose.  Don't get overly excited on a down day or overly optimistic on an up day. Don't report your daily results, (especially to your wife).  Investing is a marathon. Review your portfolio regularly in this type of market, but don't grade yourself on the results daily!

You will always have to many shares of your losers, and never enough of your winners.  You have to learn to accept the decisions that you made without beating yourself over them. Learn from them, yes, beat yourself no.  I've gotten out of some to early as well, (including GNW) if I look at it from a 20/20 viewpoint.  I've held a few I shouldn't have held as long, but I did. .  I got "wedded" to them somehow in my enthusiasm.

If I got out of one that climbed more later, then odds are that I got into one that also climbed. Maybe I didn't leave more on the "table" than I thought.  Holding longer is good if they're winning. If you can hold some winners the year or more you can play with your capital gains easier. Sell the dogs at the end of the year to offset the winners that you didn't hold the full year. Figuring your tax bracket, sometimes you didn't gain (or lose) as much as you thought.

I think 7-10 stocks that you can keep up with, know a little bit about, and don't develop a love/hate relationship is better than 4 and better than 20.  If they are in different sectors then the odds are that in an average market you will have mostly average days, few really bad days unless the whole market tanked, in which case what can you do, and several really good days. You can't always expect the market to move.  Boring will hopefuly become the new norm. That's when I invest my extra time into one or two high beta stocks to "trade" and not necessarily invest. Keeps the fun, gives a chance of a good return. Leaves my longs for stability. If researched properly and not too speculative, then a ONE or TWO stocks in play to trade should be low/moderate risk.  

Take care! 

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#41) On September 08, 2009 at 12:41 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Thanks TSIF, I appreciate your thoughts and suggestions.

A few of these thing I already knew, but it always helps to hear them from somebody else (again, and again...).

I just recently found out that reporting daily results is a bad thing, and I'm not going to do that any more.

Thanks again.

p.s. Forgot to say: I'm up for the "What he said / I told you so" challenge.

p.p.s Can beer be mailed?

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#42) On September 09, 2009 at 1:39 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

In my experience, beer, (especially if won or lost on a bet), tastes much better cold and in person!  I typically find that when both sides lose part of the bet and both sides win part of the bet, that the beer is even better.  :)

I wouldn't rule out the chance to pay up, (or collect) someday in person! :)

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#43) On September 09, 2009 at 11:43 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

It's a deal. I'll collect my beer (cold, please) in person... :)

p.s.

SRZ $2.33, My call: Ouperform, 3 Month Target: $6-$8 ($4 by the end of September)...

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#44) On September 09, 2009 at 11:51 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

I think KERX is getting ready for another one-day big jump (30-40% is my guess)...

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#45) On September 09, 2009 at 11:59 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Last night, I marked these 2 stocks as "interesting": CRXX and CLZR.

As you probably know, CLZR was up 42% today...

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#46) On September 10, 2009 at 8:30 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Kerx is interesting. Their fundamentals, (books) are hard to read on a quick pass. They show revenue and increased quarterly earnings, but really have NO revenue. A court case and milestone payments for drug development were "one-time" payments. I do agree they have some interesting potential. Cash burn rate is down since the abandoned one drug in development. With the added cash, the burn rate is down enough that they might get at least one drug to market before needing to dilute with additional share offerings.  They seem to have some good partners and by working in Japan they have a chance of getting a drug approved internationally if the FDA proves difficult.   I'd say that they are speculative, but if held over the long run, a pop or two here and there would probably keep your original investment intake. A real win, perhaps a year out could be a substantial gain.  They could have a series of FDA hurdles that wiped out an investor, but this seems unlikely in the short run. Speculative, but I agree that KERX would be worth a cautious, money you could afford to lose gamble.  So no bet, might even follow you on this one.

Line up a beer bet against SRZ if you'll give me the $3 and below range at the 3 month point (let's say end of November, I say sub $3 I win.  $3 to $4 is a draw, anything over $4 and I pay up.

From earlier, CNO, no bet, I'm neutral.

MOD, no bet, I'm neutral.

GTN, I'll bet.  I call them down.   If they break it, they won't hold $1.25 by December 31st.  I'll give you anything above $1.25 if you want to confirm this one.

You can have UTSI above $2.10 if you want it.  End date December 31st?

I'll have to reveiw some of our other banter and we need to define our list with dates and prices....  :)

I'm getting thirsty!  :)

 

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#47) On September 10, 2009 at 9:26 AM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

It's too early for me to make any predictions about UTSI. The one pop it had so far is just not enough. Can go either way (up or down, or stay at $2), so no bet yet.

I will gladly take the bets on SRZ and GTN.

p.s. You are lucky. I am not picky at all when it comes to beer. It doesn't have to be expensive or imported ones. Any beer will do it... :) 

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#48) On September 10, 2009 at 3:41 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

I don't know if I like HWD being up 8.5% a day before they will announce their earnings...

I mean, I like the extra $180, but that usually means high expetations before the earnings announcement...followed by a drop on the day of the announcement...

I was actually hoping for a slightly down day (low expectations), then a big jump tomorrow...

I might sell 100 - 150 of my 300 shares right before 4 PM...

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#49) On September 10, 2009 at 4:11 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

It's hard to be out all alone reporting your earnings. You get all of the attention, good or bad. It looks like a large block of the sub $10 stocks took pops today, steady climbs. I use to think that big investors had the "in" on earnings and that an upward movement before announce was good, but the last year or so either the retail investor is taking control on preannounce, or the analysts are clueless!  Good luck.  Hard to hold over earnings.  Win some, lose some.

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#50) On September 10, 2009 at 5:29 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Didn't sell any. What happens, happens...

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#51) On September 10, 2009 at 8:39 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Here is today's e-mail:

From:

Sent: Thursday, September 10, 2009 8:33 PM
To:
Subject: RE: Stocks 

I know this is nothing to write home about - small gain (moneywise) on a small investment, but I think it’s interesting.Yesterday, I had only $150 to invest so I decided to buy 160 shares of a cheap stock INHX.I thought: I buy some today and then buy more as I have more money available. And what happens today: INHX is up 38%.Isn’t this ridiculous?  p.s.See attached confirmation of my yesterday’s buy and the action on INHX today. 

p.p.s.Now you tell me how do these stocks know to make big jumps as soon as I buy them…?

 

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#52) On September 10, 2009 at 8:55 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Attached is a copy of my buys so far this month:

9/9/2009 BUYORDER POSTING INHX 160.0000 -$144.35

9/4/2009 BUYORDER POSTING GTN 400.0000 -$396.18

9/4/2009 BUYORDER POSTING EK 150.0000 -$794.15

9/4/2009 BUYORDER POSTING HWD 200.0000 -$1,355.55

9/4/2009 BUYORDER POSTING CENX 70.0000 -$692.45

9/3/2009 BUYORDER POSTING UTSI 135.0000 -$305.33

9/3/2009 BUYORDER POSTING HWD 100.0000 -$674.75

9/2/2009 BUYORDER POSTING KFN 100.0000 -$366.86

9/2/2009 BUYORDER POSTING LTS 500.0000

p.s. Besides HWD, so far EK and KFN are performing nicely too (as you know, things might change tomorrow).

p.p.s. Any new bets based on this list?

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#53) On September 10, 2009 at 10:32 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I'll look them over when I get a chance. I would guess based on HWD's earnings report that came out this afternoon that Mr. Market will not be PLEASED!  I didn't see any estimates from analysts, but a LOSS no doubt wasn't expected. A decline in diamond sales and price.  One thing about inventory in their business, it does hold value.  Unlike McDonalds and electronic companies, and many other industries, excess inventory is not a bad thing!!!  :)

 INHX ?? Where did you pull that one out from?  You have a knack for these small, micro's that the average investor has never heard of!!!  :)  Maybe you need to have an email list to send your buys with as soon as you make them.  If you develop a large following then, like Crammer, when you send your email, everyone will buy, reaffirming your clairvoyance!  Should work well with MICRO's!   

Yes, anything can change tomorrow. I've had one DOG left in my portfolio that slipped so low, I just held it, thinking tax loss at end of year. It just popped in a big way after hours!   DSCO. I don't have much hope it will go very far, but anything back on something you "wrote" off is wonderful. I had that happen last year on a company that went BK on me.  It sat at 0.03 for months.  Wouldn't have paid my commission to sell it. Suddenly for no reason it popped to $0.21. I hesitated. Next day $0.48 more than I'd paid for it. I sold. Others on the Yahoo board were thinking about buying. Thought something good was going to happen.  It hasn't been above $0.10 since that I know of. May have to run hard with DSCO in the morning. 

Have a great night!

PS. Are you betting me on SBGI. Under $2.50 by December 31st and I win. $2.50 to $2.80 tie. Over $2.80 and you win?

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#54) On September 11, 2009 at 12:02 AM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

I also don't think HWD will have a good day tomorrow. Now, I think I should've sold half of my position...

However, as I'm rarely wrong  :), I think that even if HWD drops around 15% tomorrow, it will still continue to go up 10 days later or so, and it will still be a $10 soon...

DSCO: Even though I did take a look at it (its chart) just recently, I have to be honest and say that I didn't think it's a buy...

INHX: Was a part of my new strategy of getting into a few cheap bio stocks hoping to catch a 10-bagger. And I just liked it's chart. p.s. Once again, I pissed off my wife by telling her a stock that I invested only $150 in went up 40% the following day... 

SBGI: The bet is on.

p.s. Haven't you noticed I like media stocks right now. Like them a lot. I own GCI in RL (bought around $3), MNI (one of my 40%-up-the-next-day stocks, and intend to buy more as I think it's making a move to $3+, then some more), and I just recently added GTN. I also added BLC to my CAPS portfolio two days ago, and it's already up 17%...

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#55) On September 11, 2009 at 5:50 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Holy cow, what happened to DSCO? Congratulations. I guess I was wrong on this one...

p.s. Just last night I mentioned my media stocks. Today, MNI was up 15%, GTN up 16%, and BLC (own only in CAPS) was up 11%.

p.p.s. Today, my best performing CAPS stock was CVGI (up 16%). I see you redthumbed this stock just a day after I greenthumbed it. Right now, I'm 2 beers ahead on this one... :) 

Last night, I also green thumbed YRCW, but is still in my pending stocks (stupid CAPS), and of course, it was up 20% today (I see you shorted this one too). 

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#56) On September 11, 2009 at 6:02 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Forgot to mention that HWD was down only 20 cents today. Great sign. Even though the news was bad yesterday, today nobody was selling (including me). 7-10 days from today, watch for a 10-15% move on high volume. Shortly after that, HWD will be a $10 - $12 stock...  

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#57) On September 11, 2009 at 6:03 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

DSCO is now the "best" call on my second list of calls (my main list of calls is here).

-------------------

#23) On September 05, 2009 at 10:42 AM, portefeuille (99.99) wrote: DSCO - 0.49 - outperform (high risk!)

------------------- 

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#58) On September 11, 2009 at 7:48 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

So should I buy DSCO now?

p.s. Porte, have you ever watched Die Biene Maja?

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#59) On September 12, 2009 at 9:45 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

As Port indicated, DSCO is high risk. The news didn't change anything.  Their drug for the lungs for premature babies is effective and is safe. They got into it with the FDA on manufacturing it within the strict dosage band. They are out of money.

The meeting with the FDA will result in one of three things:

1. They will develop/design some tests that will take a year or more to conduct.  IF that occurs they need cash and it's a long wait. Stock will linger in the current trading range until an FDA date for the FDA vote.

2. They will meet with the FDA,   be told no way, no how, sell the rights to the drug and go away. Stock will be worth $0.48 or less.

3.  They will meet with the FDA, get encouraging news, get a partner, give away huge rights to the drug or get bought out. Stock worth about $2-3.

All risk, if you like that kind of risk, it will drift down the next week, maybe dance up when they meet with the FDA, drift down as they will wait weeks to say what happened and then go from there.

In their favor, the managment who tried to do it themselves, who blew it the last three years are gone.  A small company doing the FDA part themselvees is often going to end up with problems.

 

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#60) On September 12, 2009 at 11:02 AM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

I'll pass... (thanks for the info).

p.s. I like what happened with INHX yesterday. It was down more than 20% in the morning, then slowly climbed back to finish the day one cent up from its closing price the day before (one cent below 52W high). It looks like there are people believing in this stock. Will definitly buy another 200 shares or so next week.

Almost the same thing happened with FNSR. It was down 20% in the morning, but it ended the day at the day's high, only 3 cents down from the Thursday's closing price. Even though I don't like to see something like that on a chart, I think there are people backing up this stock too...

Disclaimer: I do realize these are penny stocks so 20% moves are not unusual... 

 

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#61) On September 12, 2009 at 3:51 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

CENX AND EK:  Both at the mercy of the economy. Definitely left for dead due to debt concerns and shouldn't have been. Good resources it could sell if it had to. I don' think either are  going from negative earnings to profitability soon enough to warrant their share prices, but  Mr. Market does tend to get ahead of itself on a stock that was beaten down over 90%.  No bet, but not one I would expect much out of either ery quickly unless Mr. Market is overly generous, which is entirely possible. Currently both are over valued.

UTSI: Already offered a bet. I'm certain it's going NOWHERE.

GTS we already bet. I'm certain it's headed for bankruptcy protection.  Doesn't mean it will go to zero. Some companies go into BK protection and come out stronger.

INHX:  it would be rare for me to bet against someone on a biopharmaceutical.   It's burn rate is about $4 Million per quarter. I don't see anything for it on the FDA calendar. Looks like one drug just went Phase II, the other in preclinical. No revenue until mid-2010 at best. Sounds like a long term play. Those who get in earliest generally get in cheapest, but the risk/reward/time is long. Expect them to issue shares or sign up a partner soon.  Doesn't sound like your kind of stock.....to boring for awhile!  Could get delisted on October 22nd. I'd expect a share offering or otehr announcement before then.  In the short run, I'd bet against you on this one, but wish them the best.

KFN and LTS:  Risky.  No call on my side.

Good luck!

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#62) On September 13, 2009 at 3:00 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

TSIF, a question for you:

If a bio company has a drug in Phase 2, what does that usually mean time-wise? I mean how long before the big decision (approved or not). And how about phase 1? How long does that take? I don't know anything about this stuff. Any info will be highly appreciated.

p.s. Once again, 95%, sometimes 100% of my buys are based on charts. INHX just looked good to me chart-wise...

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#63) On September 13, 2009 at 7:41 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

dragon, there are no set rules on how long the preclinical, phase 1, phase 2, and phase 3 take or how many of each they will actully need to run. The biggest problem with timing them is the type of drug/disease and how fast they can sign up the test group. Then there is the question of what the drug needs to do to be approved. Does it cure a disease (rare), or does it prolong the life of the patient (if so, by how much, and how long do you measure the study group before the data is valid).

You need a statistically valid sample size, half on a placebo and half on the real drug.  Phase 1 is usually a small group, you are mostly interested in safety with some measurements of effectiveness, but you don't usually need to ride it all the way to the end.  IF it is a drug that cures a disease, such as the companies racing for swine flu, bird flu or other maladies, then things can go pretty fast.

Phase II can then take 6-12 months or longer, focusing again on safety, but more effectivity.

Phase III could be another 6-12 months, mostly focused on effectivity, but safety will be looked at again.

You get some hints along the way as scientific publications disect the data. Generally the Phase III is blind and the company is not allowed to see any of the results.

The "date" with the FDA can also take several months.  The FDA may fast track a drug if it is perceived as needed.  They may grant you orphan drug status and give you a fast track as well.

All in all, you can see the drugs pop in share price with any good news on data. The risk that the drug is not safe or not effective hangs over you well through Phase II.  There are other clues as well with your odds of it being approved.

You get in early, you go for some rides. You get in late, you pay more, but theoretically have reduced your risk, but not completely. INHX was estimating that they could see approval in the second half of 2010.  That sounds ambitious, but it's not one I've studied.

I'm usually financially into bios in a more mature stage. I have jumped in sooner, such as with JAZZ if things seem to be going well.

Not a game for the faint.  zzlangerhans and aracer are two caps players that I check in on for a bio/pharma play. Unfortunately ZZ has been away for about six weeks, so his picks aren't as current right righ now. 

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#64) On September 13, 2009 at 11:24 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Thank you, TSIF. Thanks a lot.

Good Luck!

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#65) On September 14, 2009 at 4:45 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

LVS

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#66) On September 14, 2009 at 8:47 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

LVS:  Good call, Technicals, (your charts) will work in the short run, but if you can't tell by now, many of us like to see some fundamentals to match. Mr. Market, he loco sometimes. Lately very loco, but sooner or later Mr. Market will have a sobber day or two.

Mister Market, he so loco, I don't putter him very often.  Very, very rarely. I'd much rather take a few calls when Mr. Market is loco in the other direction and undervalues something.  There is always a chance that if you do a put that the fundamentals will change while you're holding them.  Such as with LVS, a big pocket investor, a refinance on the debt, etc, can change things in the short run.

Willing buyers, and willing sellers, that does make the market move.

(Careful telling the missus, you only had 100 shares....... shhhhh)

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#67) On September 15, 2009 at 12:13 AM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Mr. Marker might be loco, but that's the way I like it (disclaimer: I'm loco too). I was never so excited about the future like I am right now.

And I do know that usually means "the party's over" (short term), but I'm just so pumped up about the future when I see what I see (or what I'm looking at).

I mean this is just great. Back, at the beginning of July, I was saying that this will be the biggest bull market ever (that was my only pitch for stocks I entered into my CAPS portfolio), and right now, I have no doubts...none at all...nada...

I mean, this is great. I'M LOVING IT...

I know you must think I really am quite loco right now, but let me tell you something: YOU ARE RIGHT.

(And no, I'm not smoking anything...)

This will be the best story ever written... I'm telling you... And you better believe it...

VIVA LA VIDA LOCA (and invest like there's no tomorrow)... :)

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#68) On September 15, 2009 at 12:16 AM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

FYI: I posted this last night (Sunday night). It has nothing to do with my comment above.

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#69) On September 15, 2009 at 1:08 AM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

My newest post. Will take any bets...

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#70) On September 17, 2009 at 6:44 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

TSIF,

How many beers am I ahead in our "I told you so" contest:

GTN is up 80% since my buy a few days ago,

CNO reached my (low limit) target of $6,

KERX had a 45%-one-day jump as I said it will

p.s. After today's move, I definitely want to bet on UTSI now. I'll give you anything below $5... 

p.p.s. Have you noticed FNSR's 15% move today...?

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#71) On September 17, 2009 at 6:57 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

TSIF, do you want to bet that HLCS will never again be below 2.20...?

p.s. OK, never is a long time. How about 18 months?

It's only up from here... :) 

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#72) On September 17, 2009 at 7:23 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Hi Dragon, we will have to start a list somewhere of what we bet and what we didn't.  You can sort them out of this blog, but it's getting kind of long. I think we only bet about 4 or 5 so far.

The bet is the ones we agree on, not all the ones you call!!!!  Do you want us stumbling around drunk for weeks!! ??  :)

So we added UTSI today, you're giving me anything below $5.  Deal.  I do agree something is FISHY.  The jump back up today, still on no news is interesting.  Someone's sneaking a large block at a regular basis for some reason. Most big players don't mess around with a 10-30% upside. Still I don't see it. I'll be down thrumbing it again if it gets up above $2.60.  Just missed triggering my thumb earlier today.

Yes, I saw FNSR.  A lot of stocks doing some unusual things. People are trying to position for a recovery. I didn't think FNSR was that bad off and agree that it's a decent play.

Don't forget, you haven't won, until the timeline of the bets!!! 

I only see four confirmed bets skimming above. SRZ, GTN, UTI, SBGI.  I'd have to print this to find the ones we bet on. Hard to read scrolling up and down!  Might be more! :)

I didn't get through your other list yet. I'm too busy doing damage control on my holdings. :)

No Bet on HLCS. I have a green thumb on them and REAL Money now. Speculative. The thing they are best at is press releases!  If they really have a product then they could be a buyout candidate. I had down thumbed the surge as there was no news. The news to sell four to Japan was interesting. Hard to say where they will go.  Hope I can use them at some point to pay my beer bets.  :)

The highest flyers are doing some corrections. I got back some good CAP points on TEN, but it could spike back up again before I decide to close it. I lost too many on STEC today. That's the problem with a 1,000 point pick. It can swing your total all over the place on a given day! :)  I might be in trouble being stubborn with that one.

End of options for the month tomorrow. Some of the stocks will  be screwy. Should get some "normal" back on Monday. Whatever Normal is.

 

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#73) On September 17, 2009 at 11:42 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

TSIF, I agree we need a list of the bets we agree on, with the timeline, of course.

However, I'm talking about the "I told you so" beers... I mean if one of us is really right on something (like me saying CNO is gonna be $6-7 in short order, or KERX is ready for another 30-40% jump), I think a beer from the other guy would be in order... :)

p.s. Let's try try it out right away: I say WMG is going to be up at least 50% in 4 weeks or less (most likely in 2, but I give myself room for a small error).

Today's price $5.10. Seriously thinking about buying 200 shares tomorrow morning as I expect it to be over $8 soon.

Disclaimer: I'm not known for having low expectations... :)

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#74) On September 17, 2009 at 11:57 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Cheap Chinese stocks are making their move.

Expect at least 50% gain in 4 weeks or less (most likely 2 weeks) on these three:

GU $2.10 (today's price)

GRO $2.14

FEED $5.67 

Disclaimer: I love Chinese food...

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#75) On September 18, 2009 at 9:08 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

WMG got their spike from a bank who needs WMG to bail them out on another company.  If it spikes another $1 I'll short em!

If you're willing to give me WMG at $10 in 4 weeks then I'm in and getting thirsty!  I'll even call $9 to $10 a draw and take $9 or under.  I don't normally like to take from someone who doesn't know any better, but heck if you're giving it away then I may as well take it!   :)  Did I mention I'm gettin thirsty.

I'd loved to see the Chinese market bounce back, but I'm not sure about those 3. I'll look them up and get back to you.

disclaimer, did I mention that I like beer...

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#76) On September 18, 2009 at 12:37 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Here is today's e-mail:

 

From:
Sent: Friday, September 18, 2009 12:31 PM
To:
Subject: Who said not much can happen in 2 weeks...  

As you can see below, I bought 400 shares of GTN at $0.95 per share on Friday, 9/4/09.The second picture is showing GTN’s price today: $2.40. That’s 150% gain in 14 days… J Disclaimer: Individual results. Your results may vary. Buying stocks on Fridays is not a guarantee you’ll have these returns… 

 

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#77) On September 18, 2009 at 12:40 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

TSIF, I said $8 on WMG. Take it or leave it. I'm not going for $10, as of now.

p.s. Do you like what happened with GTN... :)

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#78) On September 18, 2009 at 1:05 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I will take $8 on WMG. I didn't read your post closely enough. You said doube and it was $5.10, and I didn't see the $8.  $8 is more than fair on this loser.

Yes I saw GTN. I shorted it, should have had my limit in a little higher.

I suspect you have your email contacts sorry they are not playing along with you.  :)

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#79) On September 21, 2009 at 12:00 AM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

40-50%-Jumper- Alert:

VICL is getting ready for a big one-day jump. I won't have any new funds available until Tuesday, and I just hope it won't make its big move before then.

p.s. KERX will also be up 50% in no time...

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#80) On September 21, 2009 at 12:04 AM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

I also like HIL. Will probably get 200 shares sometime this week. Expect it to be $10-$11 by the end of this month (now 7.41)...

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#81) On September 26, 2009 at 11:10 AM, topsecret09 (38.86) wrote:

#17) On August 31, 2009 at 6:53 PM, dragonLZ (97.25) wrote:

I tried to enter HLCS last nite as my CAPS     Good call on this one...  Very good call on Market (leg up).....  Now what do you think on the market In general ?  

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#82) On September 26, 2009 at 11:34 AM, topsecret09 (38.86) wrote:

   For me the DJIA Has given Its latest SIGNAL Thursday September 24th.  DMI+ has crossed DMI- to the downside,and at the same time we are falling below the signal line (bearish), at least In the near term. The market run from early July to mid august looks legit. Since then we have for the most part been staying BELOW the signal line even though the market has trended higher. This cannot be sustained. The market should head DOWN here.....   TS

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#83) On September 26, 2009 at 11:37 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Hi Dragon, HLCS is certainly press driven. I don't know if they have enough aces up their sleeves to hold this up. Spikes on press releases almost always give some back.  If they are for real and get noticed by a big company then the premium would be very good.  If they go it alone then it's small steps up and some drop backs. They are small and smell fishy, but I like the play as a speculative one.

Market....hmmm, you may have made a better call on the depth of the slide, but I'm still holding at the 5-10% max correction. I think we had about 3% so far in the large caps, but some of the smaller players got killed.  The volume was very low on the slides. While I'm concerned that since we are nearing October that the slide could go deeper I'm still holding my original 5-10% call.  Most of what is happening seems fast, so we should have a pretty good idea soon.  

I think the key for the more stable and less speculative stocks is knowing when to dig back in. Certainly there will be some good stocks tossed out with the bad.  I've got a few flagged to nibble at if we get another crushing down day. 

I'm expecting some early/mid-day sells and afternoon recoveries as my signal.

Good luck!  (I thought WMG might take off. A few more days of market craziness and it might catch).

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#84) On September 26, 2009 at 11:38 AM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

top, here is what i think...

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#85) On September 26, 2009 at 11:44 AM, topsecret09 (38.86) wrote:

  I like this post,lots of useful Info in here..  I see that you like the biotechs,as well as myself. Some of the companies that you talk about look Interesting I will do more research on a few...  Just for the record some of  the BIOS that I like are (ARIA) ( LXRX) (NPSP) (CVM) (CRME) (OREX)    TS......

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#86) On September 26, 2009 at 12:47 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

I think there is a HUGE bull market going on in biotechs (again, based on what I see in the charts). I'm actually sure of it.

p.s. I also like CVM and OREX, think ARIA and LXRX are possibly good plays, and I'm not too excited about CRME and NPSP (all of this based on the charts, of course :). However, because of my statement above, I wouldn't be surprised if all of them (at least) double from here real soon...

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#87) On September 26, 2009 at 1:13 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Playing BIOS on the charts is buying the news.  The news might continue to be good, but when the news is bad, it's really bad.  The attraction is that while risk is high the reward can be huge.  Unlike other stocks that have a bad quarter, the downside can be huge, and sometimes down to effectively zero.  You can play several of them small and get rewarded on one, but feel like you sorted yourself. Or you can play one or two big and risk a harder fall, but a bigger reward.  I prefer the one or two hard, but only after some serious DD on the actual product, results, stages of the trials, and opinion of those who know more than I do.  Definitely, not the charts, although that is one way to follow the DD that someone else may or may not have already done. Large block buys or sells may mean those in the know are getting onboard or running.  Good luck.

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#88) On October 07, 2009 at 12:30 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

TSIF, Here is today's e-mail (p.s. RPRX is a bio stock that I bought based on the chart; news were actually bad a few weeks ago):

From:
Sent: Wednesday, October 07, 2009 12:25 PM
To:
Subject: How to make $1000+ in 7 days

Follow the instructions below very carefully: 

1.       Invest $900 in a very cheap stock (see attached confirmation of  my buy of 1,000 shares of RPRX on 10/1/09 at $0.89)

2.       Wait patiently for one week

3.       Celebrate RPRX’s 125% jump today (see attachment below)

4.        Do the math: 1,000 shares x $1.12 = ? 

Disclaimer: Math can be hard sometimes…

 

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#89) On October 07, 2009 at 12:31 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Forgot to mention that's a $1,000 on an $900 investment...

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#90) On October 09, 2009 at 2:10 PM, devilzadvocate (67.70) wrote:

SRZ is up 33% @ 4.41. Thank Dragon on this one. I would have never come across SRZ had I not read this blog :)

PS: I had bought 500 stocks based on your confidence. BEER anyone??

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#91) On October 10, 2009 at 12:24 AM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

devilz, I'm very happy for you. Glad I could help (although knowing that people invest based on my opinions makes me nervous).

p.s.

I hope you meant you bought 500 shares, not 500 stocks... :)

Also, SRZ finished the day at $4.77, up 44%. Nice.

Good Luck in the future!

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#92) On October 10, 2009 at 9:21 AM, devilzadvocate (67.70) wrote:

You got that right.. 500 shares is what I meant. I did do some DD of my own.. but wouldn't have seen SRZ had it not been for you.

Keep up the good work :)

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#93) On October 19, 2009 at 7:37 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

#22) On September 03, 2009 at 10:25 PM, dragonLZ (99.13) wrote:

One stock that I actually wanted to "write" about yesterday, but didn't have time, is HWD. I used to own it when it was going up from March lows, then sold when it started going sideways. (At one point was my worst performer in CAPS).

I think HWD is now ready for another push higher. I think it's going to hit $10-12 by the end of this month (now $6.82). 

 

Today, on 10/19/09, HWD had a nice 11% jump, and is now at $10.50...

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