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dwot (99.50)

Look Back...

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October 15, 2008 – Comments (11)

I am looking back at some of my previous posts and I thought I would link a few...

Why Look At the Depression?

World Economy Slowing Down -- Base metals are a disaster... Kitco is good for a reference. 

Three Cheers for the Buybacks -  You gotta ask yourself what kind of value the buy and hold investors were getting when BHP was buying back their $87 shares when the price is around $42 now...

30% per Year for Five Years - It is time to pay back all that excessive spending.  Consumer consumption is 2/3rds of the economy and to do that Americans were spending 130% of their income.  Simply math here suggests that cutting back to living within one's means means the economy contracts by about 20-22%.

Betting on Japan Style Deflation -  I don't know what to make of the interventions, but they are making me reconsider my bet, but not yet.

The Great Moderation

Deflation Conveyor Belt

The Crude Watch - Minyanville at the bottom is a good read.

Minyanville on Debt -- I wonder what debt to asset ratios look like this 6-7 months later...

Deleveraging of Debt

I suppose this is enough looking back for now...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 15, 2008 at 1:40 AM, awallejr (80.13) wrote:

Can we start looking forward and maybe talk about SOLUTIONS?  I know some analysts like Peter Schiff want the world to simply suffer, because in his mind that is how it must be, but I prefer to try to avoid that scenario which I think is doable.

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#2) On October 15, 2008 at 1:47 AM, dwot (99.50) wrote:

14 day wonder...  Failedbailout.

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#3) On October 15, 2008 at 1:53 AM, awallejr (80.13) wrote:

All that green thumbing says wonders.  Kind of shows the flaw in caps tho, but I care more about the discourse between people, than the "game" itself.  Told Ares back in June just red thumb 200 companies for top caps.  But that doesn't do most people any good in real life.  Let's be honest are you shorting all your picks in real life?  Of course not.

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#4) On October 15, 2008 at 2:07 AM, dwot (99.50) wrote:

In real life I took my money out of the markets about a year ago and I have stated through many people saying that this doesn't tell you anything or do any good or is real investing that it is a statement that I think the downside risk far outweighs any potential gains. 

So there are a few on here that can brag they did well on their real life portfolios.  Most are hurting.  Some took what I was saying and looked at closer and actually got out early. 

Number one in investing is preserving capital.

Conservative greed...

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#5) On October 15, 2008 at 2:11 AM, awallejr (80.13) wrote:

Then what's the point if you are completely out of the market for over a year?  This is about investing IN the market.  Want to just say I told you so?  Scotch is kicking in so I am a bit caustic.

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#6) On October 15, 2008 at 2:13 AM, dwot (99.50) wrote:

Baltic Dry Index

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#7) On October 15, 2008 at 2:16 AM, dwot (99.50) wrote:

The point is patience in waiting for what I think is a good entry. 

 

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#8) On October 15, 2008 at 2:28 AM, awallejr (80.13) wrote:

Personally I think it is now.  Start building those longterm positions.  Start with the high yielders.  Use the income off the high yielders to buy more positions.  This is how Buffett accumulated wealth.  I submit the upside potential is now greater than the downside. 

BDI isn't going to ZERO.  Things will still need to be shipped.  No secret I like PRGN, for example.  I just realized one of the reasons why that sucker was declining so much despite its high dividend and multi year charters.  Noticed that MS was a 30% customer.  That said it all right there.  People were fearing bankruptcy.  Watch PRGN rise now that MS seems secure. 

 

I've been arguing dividend stocks months ago.  Now that is all you hear people saying.  Alot of mlp energy stocks paying 15-20%! Calling the top last year was great.  But time to look forward from this point on.

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#9) On October 15, 2008 at 9:45 AM, dwot (99.50) wrote:

When you look at the last down turn there is no question that dividend stocks are the ones that came out of the mess ok.

No doubt some will do well, but quite a few have been build on unsustainable fundamentals.  

I expect people's budgets to become tighter and profit margins to be squeezed.  That means flat dividends or reduced dividend.  And some are going out of business, so no dividend and no capital.

Many that invest know who was the "winner" in the last down turn and dividend stocks have been well promoted since.  High promotion of stocks often leads to over paying.  To do well I think you truly need to avoid following the crowd. You want to be ahead of the crowd.

 

 

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#10) On October 15, 2008 at 10:09 AM, awallejr (80.13) wrote:

Hard to overpay at this point when many of them are already pummeled down over 50-60 pct.  Would seem to me that now would be the time to start nibbling.  Buying them now would be going ahead of the crowd.

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#11) On October 16, 2008 at 1:22 PM, cubanstockpicker (< 20) wrote:

awall, now and the next two years will be THE best time to buy in our generation. This involves housing, stocks, think global, think lots of cash, and by all means dont use any of these morons or spreazds or technicals for analysis. Just look for cash on cash and zero to no debt.

 

I am saying it now, starting in the next quarter and forward will be the greatest buying opportunity of our lifetimes. I am not sying sell the house and kidneys, but starting biting in now. Thankfully I havent put another dime in since I bought a few of the double shorts a few months back like in oil, now I will sell and just buy a few of the best solid stocks I like.

 

DWOT, it was nice to see you again from a long hiatus, and I see you have taken over WOO HOO!!! CONGRATS

You mind if I post some of my classis blogs that have come true on your thread?

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