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Dividends4Life (30.00)

Low-Debt Dividend Stocks

Recs

5

April 02, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: MCD , PG , UTX

With the dramatic market declines over the last 18 months, most dividend stocks appear to be fairly priced on a historic basis. However, when you consider the record number of dividend cuts and near-term prospects, many of the lower valuations are justified. So how do you sort through the massive Dividend Stock list to find the companies worthy of consideration?

One method is to use a stock screen to focus on the stocks with characteristics that we are looking for. Let’s put together a stock screen with the following criteria:

- S&P Index Membership = True : Dividend Aristocrats Are Part of the S&P

- Debt to Equity Ratio = Low As Possible : Less debt means more cash available for dividends

- Payout: Latest Fiscal Year <= 50 : Leave a little headroom

- Current Dividend Yield >= 3 : In today’s world 3% yield is a reasonable floor

- P/E Ratio: Current >=0 : Profitable companies need only to apply

- 5-Year Dividend Growth >= 5 : Long-term, growing dividends is where we will come out ahead

- Annual EPS Growth Rate >= 5 : Need to grow earnings to keep growing dividends

- Return on Invested Capital >= 10 : This keeps the shareholders happy

Entering the above in the MSN Money Stock Screener (works only with Internet Explorer), returns the following 25 companies:

(Click here to see table)

The next step is to pick through the list an eliminate companies that are not Aristocrats or Achievers. In addition, I also eliminated one company that was on the list, but failed to raise its dividend over the last 12 months and I eliminated one company whose debt-to-equity ratio was in excess of 1.00. This left us with 14 companies.

Low debt is good, but it is even better when the company is generating significant free cash flows. To further trim the list, I only kept the companies where 2008 free cash flows were the highest over the last 10 years. This left the following 7 companies, listed in ascending order based on their free cash flow compound growth rate (CAGR) from 1999-2008:

Emerson Electric Co (EMR) - FCF CAGR: 9.5%
EMR primarily makes backup power equipment for telecom and Internet providers and users, climate control components, and electric motors. (Analysis)

Sysco Corp (SYY) - FCF CAGR: 10.1%
SYY is the largest U.S. marketer and distributor of foodservice products. (Analysis)

Dover Corp (DOV) - FCF CAGR: 10.4%
DOV manufactures a broad range of specialized industrial products and sophisticated manufacturing equipment. (Analysis)

United Technologies Corp (UTX) - FCF CAGR: 14.1%
This aerospace-industrial conglomerate’s portfolio includes Pratt & Whitney jet engines, Sikorsky helicopters, Otis elevators, and Carrier air conditioners, among other products. (Analysis)

General Dynamics Corp (GD) - FCF CAGR: 16.4%
GD is the world’s sixth largest military contractor and also one of the world’s biggest makers of corporate jets. (Analysis)

McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) - FCF CAGR: 19.5%
MCD is the largest fast-food restaurant company in the world, with about 32,000 restaurants in 118 countries. (Analysis)

Procter & Gamble Co (PG) - FCF CAGR: 21.3%
PG is a leading consumer products company markets household and personal care products in more than 180 countries. (Analysis)

The above are certainly not buy recommendations, but a good list of candidates worthy of additional analysis. When the market isn’t giving you any breaks, a great way to manage risk is to focus on low-debt blue chip dividend stocks.

Full Disclosure: Long SYY, UTX, MCD, PG

Related Posts:

1. Ten Dividend Stocks With 50+ Years of Consecutive Increases

2. Refining Risk Measurement Of Dividend Stocks

3. GE: Keep Your Dividend or AAA Debt Rating, But Not Both 

4. Dividend Stocks: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly 

5. The Best Dividend Stocks In The World 

Tags: DOV, EMR, GD, MCD, PG, SYY, UTX

 

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 02, 2009 at 9:47 AM, Gemini846 (49.78) wrote:

Great post. I know there are some long term investors here that could use that screen as a springboard.  Just looking at the chart on MCD. Had no idea they had come back into range. 

Do any of your blogs have a discussion of what CAGR is or why its an important metric?

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#2) On April 02, 2009 at 9:34 PM, Dividends4Life (30.00) wrote:

CAGR is compound annual growth rate. In this case I calculated the CAGR of Free Cash Flow (FCF). The faster a company is growing FCF, the more secure its dividend and the more likely it will increase it.

Best wishes,

D4L

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