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Varchild2008 (84.23)

Lowering Opinion of WHR from $55 to $50

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November 06, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: WHR

I own 56 shares of WHR and the motivating reason for not increasing my stake beyond that for months is my inclination that Whirlpool was way overbought given the state of the economy.

It is also why I put a share price target of $55.00 a share despite seeing the share price touch $80.00.

With not just double digit unemployment... but +.2% beyond that....  There's no way anyone can sit here thinking they expected it to go +.4% in 1 month.  That is an acceleration and not the SPIN MACHINE on CNBC trying to point out to some deceleration that does not exist.

If anything exists... There is a deceleration in the decline of job losses... By that I mean we can expect non-farm payrolls to produce bigger numbers in early 2010 versus the V shaped chart we see now....  I see August - October showing a major deceleration in how many less job losses occured in last month versus pervious to last month.

Or at least that's my cautionary SPIN on the numbers....  Cause numbers don't improve *just cause*  Numbers can't improve for employment *simply because they always have before*

They improve only when there exists TODAY or in the near future some sort of catalyst which will motivate businesses to expand / hire / and grow their sales figures.   Where's the catalyst?

In the face of OBAMACARE....... CAP AND TRADE........  President Obama's promise to NOT give anyone a Tax Cut (because we all know the stimulus package only sent out Welfare Checks in the form of Tax Credits)...... And certainly we know those tax credit thingies were just a Political Stunt Ploy never meant to actually generate job growth, because the "RICH" Business Owners.... The Businesses of America didn't get a tax reduction!!

Obamacare was designed to ensure that our Health Care Costs will keep going UP.....  The premise to cut healthcare costs for Businesses only exists in the Republican Alternative Bill released yesterday.

So in short.... In face of economic malaise... I fully expect the Share Price 12 months from now will touch $50.00.

I find it amusing even though this means I will lose a bit of money watching it fall....Because Standard and Poor's recently raised their price target from $55 to $80.  

(Predicition) Standard and Poor's having to lower their 12 month price target on WHR in 3.....2.......1..

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 06, 2009 at 1:22 PM, Varchild2008 (84.23) wrote:

CLARIFICATION:   I am not 100% in favor of the Republican Bill as I do not believe it goes far enough to handle such a massive disaster than is our Healthcare / Welfare system.

However... I think the Republican's version of Healthcare Reform is focused on the correct PREMISE to cut Healthcare Costs....

Instead of the Democratic Party's PREMISE which is to control the Healthcare Indsutry.

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#2) On November 06, 2009 at 1:34 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

"If anything exists... There is a deceleration in the decline of job losses... By that I mean we can expect non-farm payrolls to produce bigger numbers in early 2010 versus the V shaped chart we see now....  I see August - October showing a major deceleration in how many less job losses occured in last month versus pervious to last month."

I agree.  There have been some large layoff announcements in the last week.  I believe these companies would hold off on the lay-offs if they saw strong business potential within the next 6 months...or even the next year.  I didn't expect the huge jump in unemployment, but it looks like there were some interesting circumstances that led to the jump.  Are those that are collecting "extended" benefits counted in the main unemployment numbers?  If so, we'll likely see another jump next month as those that had run out of benefits just received another extension.  I seem to remember reading that they're not included in the main number.

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#3) On November 06, 2009 at 1:42 PM, Varchild2008 (84.23) wrote:

You are right that they are not included.... A lot of problems are not included in the 10.2% which is why the 17.5% figure gets mentioned on CNBC and Blogger Sites an awful lot....

College/High School unemployment is also not rolled into the 10.2 like it is in the 17.5% figure.

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