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Lowest close since November and a Death Cross soon?

Recs

24

June 29, 2010 – Comments (22)

Looks likely to me.

As I was saying last week (You say goodbye and I say hello, Another look at an old friend: Risk - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/you-say-goodbye-and-i-say/411027), we have Death Crosses on the NYSE Composite, CAC 40, IBEX, NIKKEI, HSI, and SSEC. It looks like the S&P 500 will be added to that list soon.



ENLARGE

22 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 29, 2010 at 8:21 PM, ralphmachio (25.28) wrote:

Wow! You may have just surpassed my gloom level by including the word death in your title! Good Stuff! ;)

Uh, what's your take on gold miners, short term? I feel like that pug who just couldn't stop attacking porcupines, but I just gotta short 'em. And How do you feel about Gold itself? Do you think we will have a good dip to buy? (I miss my stash)

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#2) On June 29, 2010 at 9:13 PM, Tastylunch (29.28) wrote:

Noooooo I'm not ready yet.

5 more minutes mom!

 

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#3) On June 29, 2010 at 9:38 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

ralphmachio ,

Hey man!

>>Wow! You may have just surpassed my gloom level by including the word death in your title! Good Stuff! ;)

LOL! To be fair, I did not make up the expression, I am just utilizing it :)

>>Uh, what's your take on gold miners, short term?

I think gold has a very legitamite chance of breaking out sharly in the next few weeks. So I give gold miners a good shot of rallying alongside

>> I feel like that pug who just couldn't stop attacking porcupines, but I just gotta short 'em.

LOL! .... dude, of all the crappy stocks out there to short, why do you continue to try to short GSMs? Why not short the XLF, or C, or BAC? I could name a dozen financials that will likely tank soon and a dozen GSMs that will likely take off. If you insist, the only advice I will give you is: vaya con Dios mi amigo :)

>>And How do you feel about Gold itself? Do you think we will have a good dip to buy? (I miss my stash)

Here is my gold count. I am still quite bullish near term: Update on Short Term Gold Count

Tastylunch ,

LOL! Looks like the bus might be leaving :)..

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#4) On June 30, 2010 at 9:35 AM, ralphmachio (25.28) wrote:

I'm short a bank, an oil company, and ANV, or anvil, as I like to refer to it. Hopefully, I can endure the bumps... Gold's chart looks like it has potential upside for sure, and another chart I saw for short term made me cringe. I guess we'll have to see if 1040-1020 holds on the SP.

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#5) On June 30, 2010 at 10:38 AM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

OK....I was wondering who would do the post on the impending Death cross.....

Not very pleased Binve - purely from a personal perspective :(

BTW : Do not do it on a Daily frequency - at least move to the Weekly - it'll shield you from the whipsaws and get a cleaner signal (albeit delayed a bit).......

 

 

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#6) On June 30, 2010 at 10:56 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

ralphmachio ,

Gotcha man. And LOL! I like calling it Anvil :) I don't own any ANV and I probably never will.

anchak ,

>>OK....I was wondering who would do the post on the impending Death cross.....

:)

>>Not very pleased Binve - purely from a personal perspective :(

gotcha

>>BTW : Do not do it on a Daily frequency - at least move to the Weekly - it'll shield you from the whipsaws and get a cleaner signal (albeit delayed a bit).......

I disagree. A 50/200 death cross is a *very* important signal. I agree that it is not a slam dunk, but my point above is that this is being observed on many different indices. This is hardly isolated to the SPX. Also from a weekly perspective, plotting an EMA 12 vs EMA 52 filters out a lot of false crosses and is a better trigger for bear / bull crosses. That is what I am watching for next. We will see where that ends up on Friday...

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#7) On June 30, 2010 at 10:58 AM, bothisellhigher (29.01) wrote:

"Why did you move over to the Bear camp man?"  That comment/question on your web site made me giggle almost as much as..."she couldn't be a spy, I saw her gardening all the time!" 

May the Russell die the death of a thousand cuts as well.

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#8) On June 30, 2010 at 11:13 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

bothisellhigher ,

LOL!

>>May the Russell die the death of a thousand cuts as well.

Yeah, it is not looking so hot either..

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#9) On June 30, 2010 at 3:50 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.90) wrote:

Looks like S&P closes below 1040 today.  Look out below...

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#10) On June 30, 2010 at 4:31 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

jesusfreakinco ,

It is getting uglier..

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#11) On June 30, 2010 at 4:33 PM, ralphmachio (25.28) wrote:

I am stoked that we both did well today, man! Gold did well, and ANVil dropped accordingly! I lightened my position, and substituted for a bold, looking over the abyss but may bounce short on AMZN! 

I'm seriously thinking I should lean towards momentum trader, rather than day trader, because of my record with each, and the scary feeling of not being able to get back into your shorts! Yikes!

Well, good luck tomorrow, and may the miner continue to suck whilst gold rallies. 

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#12) On June 30, 2010 at 4:37 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

The close below 1040, AND one more day like today and we get the death cross on the Dow and the S&P.  I closed some short positions because I thought we might get a short term bump up here...looks like that was probably the wrong move.

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#13) On June 30, 2010 at 4:37 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

ralphmachio ,

LOL! nice :) Kudos man!..

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#14) On June 30, 2010 at 4:40 PM, Superdrol (96.51) wrote:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/my-x-ray-vision-chart-for-the/395669

 

 

I anticipated the pattern building back in May.  The market seems to be all technicals now.

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#15) On June 30, 2010 at 4:47 PM, outoffocus (23.02) wrote:

Hey Binve,

You are inching ever so close to the "green zone".  I anxiously await your victory party.  Seems like at the rate we are going you should be in the green within the next 2 weeks. Good luck

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#16) On June 30, 2010 at 4:53 PM, d1david (29.20) wrote:

I am with you..... but......... I have this nagging feeling in my head... when everyone expects it to go down (when 1040 is breached, everyone and their brother says head and shoulders-neckline violated)  - the market will do the opposite... at least short term anyway... also note.. vix barely moved today... 

short term- think we bounce, if not, will drop to 1000 and then ratchet up back to 1050 very very quick....

long term- over the next 6 months- 880 

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#17) On June 30, 2010 at 5:01 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Superdrol ,

Excellent call man!

outoffocus,

LOL! Thanks!

Unfortuately, I think binve's score going positive is a world-ending event. At the very least you should Tivo Real Housewives New Jersey, just in case

....?

d1david,

I know what you mean. This is a lot like the H&S back last year. But in this case it looks very valid. It is a much larger formation and is showing up on every major US index as well as a few international ones. We have death crosses on a few major indices. I really think the macro and the technicals are coming back in line, and that is a very bearish combination.

Here is what I think the next year holds in store (FWIW): Update on the Large Count

Congrats again man!..

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#18) On June 30, 2010 at 5:11 PM, Superdrol (96.51) wrote:

binve-

 

One of the interesting things is that the head and shoulders that developed last year was in the midst of the stimulus spending, but this one seems to be catching the latter portion of it.  From a fundamental aspect I think the US needs a second stimulus despite an excessively pessimistic view on it.

 

Without it, I am willing to bet things will keep getting worse......

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#19) On June 30, 2010 at 6:37 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Superdrol,

I agree sort of. I think a second stimulus will only delay the inevitable. If we took our medicine before, we would already have been in a sustainable recovery. If we take our medicine now, we have a huge crash / major recession and we will start recovering in 3-5 years. If we resort to stimulus again, we will have a painful and agonizing (but slower) *depression* that will take a decade to recover from. None of the choices are good, but some are better than others..

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#20) On June 30, 2010 at 6:44 PM, Superdrol (96.51) wrote:

oh definitly no question.  It is equivalent to giving a drug addict more drugs to avoid a withdrawl.  Here's the dilemma though.  The states/local Governments are already in crisis mode, and if anything the economy risks being in a deflationary environment.  If that occurs, stocks will not move up.

I don't think a second stimulus will actually correct or help any problems, but it will at least 'feel good' for a little longer though. lol.

 

Unfortunately, the first stimulus short-circuited the recession, so the recession has not really 'truely' ran its course.

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#21) On June 30, 2010 at 10:59 PM, blesto (31.63) wrote:

binve,

Waddaya make of this chart. Note: Prior to 1896 a surrogate index is used for the DJIA Index.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic" target="_self">Gold Dow

LINK TO PAGE

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#22) On June 30, 2010 at 11:35 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

blesto ,

Hey man. I have given this chart a lot of thought. See this post: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/update-on-the-dowgold-ratio/387921. Thanks!.

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