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alstry (35.38)

Mainstream Media Thinks Fools are IDIOTS

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June 26, 2009 – Comments (17)

A few random Headlines re KB Homes:

KB Home says home orders are up

KB Home 2Q loss narrows, new orders up from 1Q

KB Home new home orders up from 1Q

KB Home's quarterly loss narrows

SOME FACTS:

Revenues totaled $384.5 million in the second quarter of 2009, down 40% from $639.1 million in the year-earlier quarter.

The Company ended its 2009 second quarter with a cash balance of $1.10 billion.....the Company’s debt balance totaled $1.71 billion

The Company’s backlog at May 31, 2009 totaled 3,804 homes, representing potential future housing revenues of approximately $796.9 million, compared to a backlog of 6,233 homes representing potential future housing revenues of approximately $1.47 billion at May 31, 2008.

Company-wide net orders for new homes in the second quarter were 2,910, down 31% from 4,200 in the second quarter of 2008 but up 59% from 1,827 net orders in the first quarter of 2009.

Some Real Analysis:

Orders were DOWN 31% from last years DEPRESSED ORDER RATE!!!!!!

Backlog was DOWN approaching 50%!!!

Due to depressed pricing, the company is losing money as it sells homes, the more homes it sells, the more it loses.....its losses "narrowed" because it sold a lot less homes this year than last year.....if the company simply shut down.......it's losses would go away.

To use a quarter over quarter sales/order comparison is IDIOTIC at best, and more likely DECEPTIVE at its origin.  Spring Selling Quarter is ALWAYS the historically best selling quarter for housing.  Could you imagine a retailer bragging its Christmas/Holiday December selling month was better than Novermber???  How do you think January would compare???  Do you think it would be fair to compare next quarters KB orders to this quarters???? 

As indicated above, on a year over year basis, orders are collapsing and backlog is even worse!!!! Selling prices are crashing compressing margins.  Ask yourself....why is the mainstream media treating you Fools like IDIOTS????  And if it is being done in this context, where else are you being LIED to?????

 

17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 26, 2009 at 11:52 AM, GenericMike (< 20) wrote:

OP isn't the one who changes his prediction of where the DOW every single day.

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#2) On June 26, 2009 at 11:53 AM, millionby24 (< 20) wrote:

does the DOW go in one direction?

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#3) On June 26, 2009 at 11:56 AM, alstry (35.38) wrote:

Million....How can your accuracy be that BAD???  I don't think, if I applied every ounce of energy I had....I could generate an accuracy score that embarrassing;)

Could you please explain the logic behind your thinking so I could reverse engineer it to make incredible profits!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#4) On June 26, 2009 at 12:03 PM, millionby24 (< 20) wrote:

lol @ #3 thinkin I actually care about CAPS scoReS~

I'll just go buy a house with my Points NoW...

CAPS4LIFEBABY~~

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#5) On June 26, 2009 at 12:03 PM, VintageCat (< 20) wrote:

"I'm losing money on each sale but making up for it in volume." used to be a joking answer to "How's business?" in retail.  Seems like it's the new reality in a few sectors of our economy now.  

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#6) On June 26, 2009 at 12:13 PM, jddubya (50.69) wrote:

Alstry wtf?  You quote the mainstream media with your constant barrage of end of world scenarios and then you keep telling us how the mainstream media lies.

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#7) On June 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM, alstry (35.38) wrote:

jd,

Actually....if you look at the contents of my blog.....Alstry generally focus on facts as applied to conclusions.  It is not the facts that I am questioning....simply the conclusions. 

The media has become one big editorial page focusing and emphasizeing on false deceptive conslusions by reporting them as if they were facts.

As an attorney, this is an area I am trained to scrutinize.

million....

If we could simply logically reverse engineer you CAPs play....we could turn it into infinite wealth in real life....I am not sure I have ever seen someone so consistently off....that is the elegance of your logic.....it is so consistent and if we could harness that consistency.....it could be the perverbial goose that lays the golden egg.

And by the way...regarding your earlier comment about last years KB quarter not being "depressed"....

Here is a quote from last year's release:

Revenues totaled $639.1 million in the second quarter of 2008, down from $1.41 billion in the second quarter of 2007

In two years...KB's revenues have dropped about 75% from 1.4 Billion to a teeny weeny $384 million!!!!!  That is what The Institute of Alstrynomics calls DEPRESSED!!!!!!

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#8) On June 26, 2009 at 12:43 PM, anticitrade (99.65) wrote:

Alstry, that was the best comment I have EVER seen from you.  I predict another "I'm taking my ball and going home" reaction... 

 

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#9) On June 26, 2009 at 12:48 PM, dickseacup (66.96) wrote:

In this brave, new world of Hope for Change economics, alstry, a decrease in the rate of decline is functionally equivalent to, and indistinguishable from, growth. Why do you have such a hard time grasping this?

 

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#10) On June 26, 2009 at 12:53 PM, alstry (35.38) wrote:

dick,

As a man who enjoys getting "it" once in a while.......if my activity was simply a linear progression of a decreasing rate of decline......at some point on the line......I am effectively a celebate monk.

If I wanted to be a monk......I would have chosen that path.

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#11) On June 26, 2009 at 1:02 PM, jddubya (50.69) wrote:

Hmmm... not sure how being a monk represents a decreasing rate of decline.  Weird Alstry.  Weird.

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#12) On June 26, 2009 at 1:28 PM, 4everlost (29.38) wrote:

Alstry,

I've been getting "it" less and less lately.  It may have something to do with some sort of rate of decline, I'm looking into drugs to cure it.

As far as getting it goes, there are some who don't recognize sarcasm and those who are looking for a fight, apparently.  Facts are facts, the conclusions are up to the individual reading the facts.  

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#13) On June 26, 2009 at 2:20 PM, dickseacup (66.96) wrote:

alstry, many times I forget the closing /sarcasm tag in my comments. :)

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#14) On June 26, 2009 at 3:38 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

good pick alstry.  On your toes.  That's always good to see. 

As I said before, most every accounting these days is incorrect.  It's getting a little annoying, wouldn't you say?

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#15) On June 26, 2009 at 3:45 PM, alstry (35.38) wrote:

A little??????....I used to make my living on ferreting out illusory accounting....now the cops have become crooks so I have no forum to peddle my wares.

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#16) On June 26, 2009 at 7:11 PM, debtRichQuick (< 20) wrote:

Million by 24….If you don't fool me, it's not only improbably, but impossible that you fool Alstry. Remember, Alstry's formal education is in law...HIS EYES & MIND ARE TRAINED TO DISECT AND QUICKLY PULVERIZE WRITTEN STATEMENTS IN A TRUE FALSE MANNER!!You basically just told Alstry that you feel spending your time talking shyt to him on CAPS is more important than actually clicking a few boxes that will help you avoid looking like a complete idiot!!First off, you spent time setting up the stock picks! WHY??? IF IT IS SO UNIMPORTANT??? Why not just leave that part blank?? Hmmmmm genius???Do you think you can really fool Alstry by saying you don't care about your CAPs score?? LOL! Please!! He probably had the same grin I did when reading your ridiculous statement. What you are really telling us is, you make those picks to look like a genius...it went terribly wrong, so you gave up. That seems to be more consistent with your screen name too. You made the name to look like a genius, but as time goes on, we are finding out you are actually lack the mental capacity to obtain that million by 24…Next time you feel like opening your mouth to further confirm you’re an imbecile…Do yourself a favor and STFU!

 

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#17) On June 26, 2009 at 10:55 PM, millionby24 (< 20) wrote:

#16

OPs' Account #2

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