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XMFSinchiruna (27.71)

Major Vindication for Gold's Greatest Guru

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August 04, 2011 – Comments (11)

By navigating two successive bull markets for gold over the course of past 40 years, with unrivaled success and uncommon insight into every aspect of the global macroeconomic landscape, Jim Sinclair has cemented his legacy as the greatest precious metals guru of our time.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/08/04/major-vindication-for-golds-greatest-guru.aspx

Imagine: He sold 900,000 ounces of gold in January 1980 at $810 per ounce. In 2001, he no doubt began accumulating aggressively when he initiated his call for $1,650, which he now views as a target so low it will one day be viewed as "silly". He is living proof that an truly insightful read of the macroeconomic landscape can form the core of a highly successful long-term investment strategy. He saw the financial crisis coming years in advance, and positioned himself accordingly. Whatever happens from here in gold, his accoimplishments to date already guarantee his legacy. It's an incredible achievement.

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 04, 2011 at 10:27 AM, outoffocus (22.84) wrote:

Hey Sinchi, whats the deal with AUY?  Are these record high prices not turning into profits for this company?  What's holding the stock price back?

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#2) On August 04, 2011 at 10:31 AM, silverminer (31.04) wrote:

Holding it back?

AUY is the only gold producer I see in the green today, and the price action has been tremendous in recent weeks.

Study your charts ... AUY has just recently initiated a major multiyear breakout.

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#3) On August 04, 2011 at 11:02 AM, outoffocus (22.84) wrote:

Actually I just looked as saw it finally broke $14.  But prior to that it seemed like it was just moseying along.

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#4) On August 04, 2011 at 11:11 AM, silverminer (31.04) wrote:

You were outoffocus. :)

You have to consider the price action relative to peers, and do take a close look at AUY's chart.

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#5) On August 04, 2011 at 12:18 PM, TMFAleph1 (94.90) wrote:

I don't know how he came to his selling decision in January 1980, but the timing was brilliant. To be sure, obtaining $810/ ounce -- less than 5% from the all-time high -- was a combination of luck and skill, but selling in January is impressive (much like The Economist article I sent you.)

In 2001, he no doubt began accumulating aggressively when he initiated his call for $1,650, which he now views as a target so low it will one day be viewed as "silly".

What do you mean by "he no doubt began..."? Did he or didn't he?

Alex D

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#6) On August 04, 2011 at 12:39 PM, silverminer (31.04) wrote:

Alex,

I don't think luck had a thing to do with it. I think sound market analysis had everything to do with it.

As for how much gold he bought after making his 2001 call, I have no idea. Ask him. He certainly built a large stake in Tanzanian Royalty, and that has performed admirably.

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#7) On August 04, 2011 at 1:13 PM, TMFAleph1 (94.90) wrote:

Luck certainly had something to do with the precise timing. I give him credit for selling his gold in January, but the probability that he was able to predict the top of that bubble to within a day is approximately zero.

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#8) On August 04, 2011 at 1:21 PM, silverminer (31.04) wrote:

You don't know that ...

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#9) On August 04, 2011 at 6:02 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.80) wrote:

Chris,

When are the miners going to wake up and defend their stock price - dividends and/or buybacks are LONG overdue.  Do they all think they need to save money for acquisitions?

JFC

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#10) On August 04, 2011 at 7:15 PM, workfor (< 20) wrote:

Mr. Sinclair's next number of major importance for gold is $1764 in which he predicts faith in currencies will be lost. He also stated today that "buyers will emerge in size should the middle to low $1500 occur in this reaction".

 

 

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#11) On August 04, 2011 at 11:16 PM, FleaBagger (29.30) wrote:

the probability that he was able to predict...

That's the thing: some people take an actuarial/accounting approach to investing, and some people take a macroeconomic/anecdotal/trendspotting approach. The actuarial types consider the latter unscientific and unreliable, but when I abandoned my attempts at the former and adopted the latter, I started making far better investment decisions. 

Alex, if you find those whose methodology you dislike making serious money, just accept it. Everybody doesn't have to agree on how to invest. Maybe Mr. Sinclair was able to use the stereotypically imprecise macroeconomic trend method and refine it to the point of 95% accuracy in calling a top. 

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