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ikkyu2 (99.52)

Make a move

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August 27, 2012 – Comments (4)

Some of you like to know when I make a move.

I went from 1% cash to 20% cash this morning.  I can't put my finger on why.  I've been fully invested since 2009, but I don't like the look of the charts, don't like the quarterlies I've been seeing, don't like Gentle Ben's recent remarks.

I got rid of my Pandora - that was a mistake to begin with - and I sold half my AAPL stake at today's all-time high; conveniently, my entire stake just hit the one-bagger mark so I am now 'playing with house money' as they put it.  I am aware that I may have just pulled out half the flowers from my portfolio by doing that - my portfolio has basically become way overweight AAPL over the last few years just due to price movement - but I am going to be quite careful about not watering the weeds for a while.

I also sold the NUAN in my taxable account for a small long-term gain, but that is more because I am going to need the cash soon; my long-term thesis on the company hasn't changed.

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 27, 2012 at 10:15 AM, edwjm (99.83) wrote:

September is coming.  Historically, it is the worst month for stocks.

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#2) On August 27, 2012 at 2:39 PM, amassafortune (30.03) wrote:

I think you have good instincts. Time will tell.

Corporate profits are slowing. That will show up in price after a little more lag time.

AAPL has some nice tailwinds that will continue to propel it. I expect $700+ for it soon, but locking in gains along the way is prudent.  

I think Ben will disappoint this Friday at Jackson Hole. Romney's recent statements about letting the dollar firm and keeping on Bernanke may be meaningful. The Fed has always been reluctant to make meaningful moves near an election - a policy with which I agree.

Dollars have been over-digitized to the point that other world playas are taking steps toward dollarless trades. I think, and I hope Bernanke is about done with kneejerk printing, and the idea that rising stocks will lead to consumer spending. 

I think TPTB also understand the big money comes from being able to tap into a prosperous middle class. The big, easy one-stop government money is candy, but tapping the masses is an endless buffet.

I think Ben gives Romney a boost by not promising more easing Friday. Stocks will ease, the dollar firm, and gold will slip. 

When one thinks about it, Ben can pretty much pick the president in a dead heat like it is. He can print and ease, goose the market and give it to Obama, or he can continue with bland statements that signal he will support Romney's firmer world reserve dollar.

Bottom line, business is about relationships, and the Fed member banks probably like the businessman better than the lifetime government man. They could just give Obama the Jimmy Carter treatment and let everything languish until Romney can claim the old regime "cleared airspace" at the innauguration in January.  

Either way, caution as an investor is warranted.

 

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#3) On August 27, 2012 at 9:12 PM, MegaShort (99.95) wrote:

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#4) On August 28, 2012 at 2:30 PM, ikkyu2 (99.52) wrote:

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