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Making a big bet on China



August 15, 2008 – Comments (4)

Look for Chinese stocks to take off towards the middle of september.

 - Price of oil will stabalize at 100 going into the winter months which will reduce transport costs

 - US $ will appreciate vs. Chinese $ helping exports

 - Chinese stock market is currently worlds worst performing stock market (losing 60% since last october), most bear markets run less than 1 year

- I will be focusing on utilities, telephone/cable/internet companies, and infrastructure companies


4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 25, 2008 at 3:23 PM, TMFDeej (97.70) wrote:

I completely agree that China is poised to rebound, rwilso01.  I'm not sure about the U.S. dollar strengthening versus the Yuan though.  I sill am not convinced that this dollar rally is for real.


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#2) On August 25, 2008 at 4:39 PM, tdoodler (43.30) wrote:

I dont understand what a "stabilized" price of oil has to do with the Chinese Stock market.  Doesnt the Chinese gov't subsidize the price of Oil in China?  So, unlike the US,  the price of oil should not affect the Chinese stock market.  On the other hand the US consumer buys a lot of Chinese goods.   But, if China ramps up their economy, then our oil price goes up - and if our oil price goes up - our economy goes down.  If our economy goes down then ultimately that will hurt the Chinese market.  ( Oh I understand that the emerging Chinese middle class is potentially huge - but that takes a long time to emerge. - just look at Mexico, people have been touting the growing middle class in Mexico for over 10 years)

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#3) On August 25, 2008 at 7:35 PM, Bupp (27.97) wrote:


 The price of oil effects the cost of shipping goods from china to the US, cheap oil makes the world flatter improving chinese exports. 

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#4) On October 10, 2008 at 2:54 AM, Bupp (27.97) wrote:

I could not have been more wrong on this call.  Ugh.


Oil is down but by much more than I thought.

Us Dollar is appreciating

But otherwise ugh.

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