May 19, 2008
– Comments (9)
Travers sent me a link to the very handy non-prime mortgage loan performance mapper at the NY Fed. Here's the picture, as of five months ago, in the relatively pricey county near me.
Finally I will get to buy a house. I am hoping to buy something cheap.
Yipes, I just looked at Westchester County, NY (talk pricey) and the resets for the next 12 months are 37.5% of Alt-A.
I think we're in a "don't shoot 'till you see the whites of their eyes," situation. I don't think we fire around here for at least a year.
agreed. most RE turndowns typically last years (2+). I scuttled our condo project early last year we were going to build in anticipation of this problem.
I'd wait till at the very least the banks earnings stabilize, I really don't think the firesale has begun yet. There are still plenty of properties that owners are refusing to sell because they haven't despaired yet.
It's just like a stock bubble. Here we are with low-lying limit buy orders - if you will - and when everybody panics, we should be able to do okay.
Kind of scary to have that high of a percentage of mortgages on the ropes-happy to be renting at the moment. Do you think that the market will overshoot the bottom as well as the top? Most reports I am reading predict a long running L pattern instead of a sharp V.
I don't know where things will head. By around my (rented) place, we're getting something of a dead cat bounce. The place I saw for sale -- which payments would break down as displayed below -- says it's under contract. After only a few weeks on the market. I was surprised, as that thing will certainly, I believe, be worth another 10% less next year.
And in the mean time, as you can see down there, you can rent a place about 2/3 the size for under $2,000 a month. You can rent an equivalent single-family home not far away (better neighborhood) for around $2500.
If the housing market stays flat for 3+ years at best (as some say it will) , I'll be able to buy what I really want in that time. Not ready yet though.
So far, energy seems to be best for me. Getting a little top heavy though lately.
I enjoy the blog. I like to have the bejesus scared out of me, especially in regards to poor financial practices/ethics. You post some really interesting figures that the mainstream press often doesn't report.