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Market activity update and random thoughts

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April 27, 2010 – Comments (6)

I have not done much in the market lately. 

Still holding RJET (at about 6% of my portfolio its as big of a position as I really want one stock to be, i'm up on it now by like 5%). 

I think its basically inevtiable that HIG moves to $35+ in time, I think $40-50 isn't unreasonable.  On a dip I may bet accordingly.  

I covered naked puts on HIG, BAC, XL at >70% of the money out of them.  

I am sitting on my long BAC calls and shares, my long HIG calls and shares, and my monstrous long XL position.  

I basically missed out on the Goldman Sach's dip, traveling and what not.  Short lived it was.  

I am considering an options position in GOOG and in GS.  Long calls, call spreads, short puts, that kind of thing, but haven't acted on it yet.  

I am going to spend several hours tomorrow re-thinking my long NBG position...  if Greece avoids a default NBG is awesome from here.  If it doesn't, ...  NBG probably won't cease to exist but considerable tumult may ensue.  NBG is an interesting entity ...  but at this point I have decided that I need to do more research.  I am adding to my OTE position as OTE shouldn't die if Greece defaults.  

I am sitting calmly on a wide variety of other positions, and generally haven't done much.  

 

Beyond that, I have some thoughts on life.  I have, in my life, not had alot of sympathy for people who are unhappy with their lives.  My unsympathetic logic has always been "ok, well, change it".  The stereotypical example is the pretty girl complaining about her boyfriend.  I haven't given anything but a snide comment to one of those sicne I was a teenager.  He isn't making you happy?  Get a new one, and shut up.  

And I have come to be very malcontent in the town in which I've lived for the last decade plus.  And so I am moving.  My sons moms husband (wow, get that?) works for big pharma, and is quite an extraordinary guy with a fantastic work ethic, as such when his company had big layoffs recently, he was offered a raise but... he had to transfer.  A couple hundred miles away.  Per state law, as custodial parent of my son, I cannot leave the state unless I basically have to to live or she agrees unless she moves away.  So I can leave....

Truth be told, for all of the residual ambition and remaining restlessness I have deep down, I would alwyas pick whats best for the kid, so I'll probably move to where they are moving.  ...  but...

real estate is cheap in vegas and phoenix and here and there, and I may buy a house somewhere else and try to live two lives:  one in which I cook breakfast and am very boring and one in which I live somewhere else.  I always wanted to leave here (see ambition and comments about a restless soul), but...  I got stuck with custody and being beyond broke failing at business and beyond busy succeeding at it.  

And so I can finally leave, and so I am taking my own medicine and packing up and i'm out of here in a few weeks. 

remember, my fellow CAPsters, you can change your life.  And yourself, we are wehre and what we choose to be, in the end.   

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 27, 2010 at 12:55 AM, starbucks4ever (94.58) wrote:

checklist,

Don't you think that buying calls and holding high-octane foreign stocks at this point is a little like buying ultra-shorts in February 2009? No, I'm not Alstry, but I do think that at least a small correction is in order. Now is not the right time to increase bets, it's time to sit quietly on one's shares of WMT and KO and see what happens next. We are just 15% below the historic maximum on S&P. 

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#2) On April 27, 2010 at 1:05 AM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

plus the kids 1/2 brothers are the coolest kids ever, except the kid himself.  They are hilarious! 

as a preface to this story, I have a very good and long time friend who has a gorgeous lake cabin not far from here and I frequently visit there in the summers.  As such, I frequently show up at my sons moms to pick him up in my swintrunks, which the 5 year old thinks are underwear.  He calls underwear underpants.  

So once he says "chetwist, why is you always wearing dem underpants?  my dad maybe has some pants you could have if you have no pants.  he is kind of fatter than you tho so maybe they would be too big"  

The 5 year old, when he was 4, was sitting at my house and we were watching iRobot, and he says

"chetwist, I don't think you gets many dates"

I asked why he thought that, he replied

"because you is always running around in dem underpants and you is getting a bald head"

and if that won't make you laugh, I don't know what will.

Furhter:

The 7 year old, when he was 3 or 4, is sitting at a BK with my son and I, eating his cheeseburger

"checklist, is i eating killet cow or killed pig?"

"its cow"

"on, it is pretty good"

A girl of about 5 sitting nearby started crying, her mom was not pleased.  lol

or how about this one, we are at the movies, me the 5 and 7 year old and my son, maybe 1 or 2 years ago, and the probably then 4 year old leans over and talks to me:

"jasoms sitted hims butt on my face"

"oh really?"

"ya, and when hims did that hims booooootocks was naked, hims sitted hims naked bootocks on my face"

"oh wow, that sucks"

"ya, and my face was stinky the whole day until my bath"

and if that won't make you wonder WTF and laugh alot, you are a sick person.  

So I will almost certainly move where they are going, but I may get a 2nd place as well.

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#3) On April 27, 2010 at 1:10 AM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

zloj, agreed that a small correction is in order.  But I have long come to accept that I have zip for market timing skills and, if I ever buy a call

a)  it is deep in the money so as to have little or no time premium

b)  it is very long dated, like the longest possible date, so today that is january 2012.  

The BAC calls I hold (mentioned above) are jan 2012 and deep in the money at varous strikes, carrying little time premium.  Ditto HIG, ditto CBI (old call positions, from early last July in the dip), ditto all calls. 

I never, ever, buy time premium without offsetting it with short time premium, and I never buy speculative short dated calls, I just use calls and/or short puts to add a small bit of leverage to what I consider a sure position.  I considered it "sure" that XL would be above $15 and HIG above $22.50 and BAC above $15 when I sold a mob of naked puts at those prices some time ago.  I consider it "sure" that T will be above 20 or 22.50 and "sure" that PFE will be above $15 and so forth.  

Buying calls, as described by me, is always more conservative than it seeems.

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#4) On April 27, 2010 at 6:35 PM, starbucks4ever (94.58) wrote:

Beginning of a correction?

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#5) On April 27, 2010 at 11:57 PM, Nickalisk (51.65) wrote:

Doesn't OTE have a lot of debt as well?

 

Keep us posted on what you decide with NBG.  Did you buy a MRLP position in it, and for how much? 

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#6) On April 28, 2010 at 8:19 AM, fireman9119cac (30.71) wrote:

Hi Checklist

 Just something to look into possibly,  I bought a little place in the Carribean for this very reason...to get away, learn a new language, no blackberries, no internet . just live  a different life etc. Basically fend for myself in a forigen land and embrace the new challanges.  It is a cheap flight to Santo Domingo and I just lose myself from there.

 I have never felt this way since scoring the winning goal in the PeeWee hockey championship.  I missed the thrill, the rush, and the feeling of accomplishment.  Fishing with the locals, drinking rum, dancing at night until the sun goes down. lots of chairty work.....thats living.   Best decesion of my life .

 FYI some of your stock picks have paid for it...thanks

 FM

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