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alstry (36.24)

Market CRASH today.......

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February 13, 2009 – Comments (19)

Alstrynomics is attempting a technofundemengeopoliticationpsyhchosocialeonometric theory on today's market.  ABSOLUTELY NO REAL LIFE DECISIONS SHOULD BE BASED ON IT!!!!!!!!!!

The theory is simple.  Everything is grinding to a halt right now...Commercial Real Estate, Trucking, Retail, Hotels, Finance.....you can name just about anything and its slowing......and the pace of slowing is getting faster.  Get it....the slowing is getting faster.

Those in the know....like those that practice Alstrynomics.....KNOW this is happening. 

If the slowing is getting faster, then money velocity is getting slower.  If velocity is gettin slower, then money is being destroyed at an alarming fast rate.  Remember, in Alstrynomics world....ANYTHING, did you get that my fellow FOOLS, ANYTHING..... that convert into money quickly is just as good as money and should be counted as money.

Stock portfolios are money.

Gold and Silver is money.

Money is money.

Debt is money.

At a certain price...real estate is money.

If you have a hot looking wife or husband....or partner if you swing that way.....morally that should be considered real wealth....I will leave the rest up to you.

Let me tell you, if you get a stock statement with a $10 million dollar value....most people think it just as real as getting the same bank statement.....or if you had $10 million of gold in your living room.  It is all the same folks.....don't let the heritic Fools fool you.  Money is money is money...and if can easily convert into money....it is money too!!!!!!

The problem is that we have destroyed over $20 TRILLION dollars of Alstrynomics money just in the US alone in the past year.  And more is being destroyed everyday. 

You think the government is going to print $20 Trillion this year.........??????????

So why today you ask??????.....simple........because it is the day after yesterday and the deterioration is getting so fast and the knowledge is becoming so widespread that moves will happen with greater speed and intensity.

Overall the system is insolvent.....except the US government.......and there is nothing we can do about it except restructure as quickly as we can before we make this a protracted problem which will inevitably lead to social unrest or something much worse.

I have documented this process with painstaking detail over the past year here on TMF.  The detail has been so detailed that many confused it for being the same post over and over.  But each brick has been unique building upon each brick before it.  After enough bricks have been set....we have a strong foundation.

So here we are, the foundation for deflation nation is pretty much ready to be revealed to the masses.  Soon you too will be a believer in Alstrynomics.....I am absolutely certain of it.  Many can resist....but few will be able to turn away in the end.

So here we are......coming off a very sharp market reversal at the end of the day.  Some people use fundementals....others use technicals....and some may even try tarrot cards......not Alstry.......its the amalgamation listed in the opening sentence above that sets the basis for a highly controversial call.........the odds of success....I would have to put it at less than 1 in 1000.........but Alstry loves longshots.

19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 13, 2009 at 9:19 AM, Gingerbreadman55 (26.23) wrote:

---You think the government is going to print $20 Trillion this year.........??????????---

 

Actually, yes, I do. Indirectly we're already at a handful of trillions, I think its almost logical that the current $500-900 billion congress bills coupled with attempts to "save real estate" and banks will only continue.

When all is said in done if the government hasn't thrown 20 trillion dollars at the problem by this time next year I will be surprised.

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#2) On February 13, 2009 at 9:19 AM, outoffocus (23.25) wrote:

"Overall the system is insolvent.....except the US government"

Say WHAT?!?!?!?!?!  Have you SEEN the US government's balance sheet? One of the most insolvent pieces of crap I've ever seen and their debt is growing everyday.  (Lets not even get into how the Gov cannot get an unqualified opinion on their financial statements to save their life.)Their balance sheet looks like GM's balance sheet but 20 times worse.  And if we are going to experience massive deflation like you say we are, then the US Gov is in major trouble because they will not be able to pay back all that debt with deflated dollars.

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#3) On February 13, 2009 at 9:36 AM, TMFRosetint (98.20) wrote:

Alstry, you're nuts.

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#4) On February 13, 2009 at 9:36 AM, alstry (36.24) wrote:

I don't think you guys understand accounting too well....The US Balance Sheet is very strong if you back out entitlement obligations.........however, the Income Statement is another story.

Much of what the US owns and maintains many trillions of value is NOT on the US Balance sheet.

It is just the way it is.........

Not only that...the US government is NEVER insolvent....it can print its way out of anything.

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#5) On February 13, 2009 at 9:38 AM, Gingerbreadman55 (26.23) wrote:

--Not only that...the US government is NEVER insolvent....it can print its way out of anything.--

 

Hence, on the way to 20 Trillion.

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#6) On February 13, 2009 at 9:44 AM, alstry (36.24) wrote:

Ginger....

According to my math......we have a long long way to go......and the hole is getting much deeper as we speak.....even if every dime currently under contemplation is actually printed......it is not enough to reverse the process that is CURRENTLY taking place......

Listen buddy.....we don't have to agree......reasonable minds can differ.....it is just that I am confident that I am right.....that's all.

 

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#7) On February 13, 2009 at 9:49 AM, Boogpckr (41.94) wrote:

Correct me if need be, by bailing out the banks to "free up credit", the government is printing more money than they lend.

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#8) On February 13, 2009 at 10:00 AM, alstry (36.24) wrote:

Boogyman,

Nope......writing NEW debt is "printing" in the terms I think you are contemplating in your comment

Exchanging old debt with new debt is more of a wash in Alstrynomics.

 

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#9) On February 13, 2009 at 10:03 AM, REITDUDE (90.30) wrote:

A lot of commercial real estate is so over-levered that it is not money; you could not sell it, repay debt holders, and have anything left to show for it- most junior mezz tranches of large cross-collateralized portfolios wouldn't even let you sell it...for now a lot of commercial real estate is worth nothing more than the value of hope for a LT recovery

Booger, I believe that due to a bank's ability to lend money that it doesn't actually have to another bank (which, in turn, can be lent by the bank that borrowed, and so on...limited only by margin requirements), far more money will be 'created' or injected into the economy than what is physically printed- as long as banks resume lending to one another.  I think.

What's with all the haters today?  I'm not the biggest fan of referring to one's self in the 3rd person or self-referential sentences (irony intended), but dude's top 100 & writes one of the most updated, opinionated blogs on the site- you're all reading it, right? 

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#10) On February 13, 2009 at 10:19 AM, alstry (36.24) wrote:

Reit....I am not fond of referring to one's self in the third person in real life either....actually if someone did it I would conclude they were mentally unstable.

But Alstry is an online "persona" that has taken on a life it his own that is no way reflective of my personal behavior.....however, much of what Alstry opines and my beliefs overlap.

I find it comical that so many people attack Alstry personally....it is very amusing......however, you are right....Alstry should be judged by the quality of his work and the accuracy of his predictions.....on that basis....few are as good as Alstry here on CAPs....or anywhere for that matter.....

Alstry is dealing with a very serious issue that is going to profoundly affect all of our lives.  Alstry has done the best he could to warn people about what was coming and back it up with FACTS.  In the end, Alstry goes to bed very comfortable at night KNOWING he is doing a good job and providing a good service to all at no charge to anyone.  It ain't a bad way to live if you are Alstry.

As far as my life personally....that is private and I can't complain.  In fact, all things considered all in all....I have it pretty damm good.

Wouldn't life be much better if everyone was judged on the quality of their work and not the BS nonsense that actually influences most of us all.  Why do you think Alstry doesn't give a damm about popularity.....its all about talent in Alstry's world.

And judging from his score....few play at Alstry's level.

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#11) On February 13, 2009 at 11:02 AM, RainierMan (74.44) wrote:

I think Alstry's analysis may be right on, but the markets don't move on a rational assessment of the economy; at least not in the short term. Intermediate term, yes.

In the meantime, I think calling daily market moves amounts to luck. 

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#12) On February 13, 2009 at 11:15 AM, alstry (36.24) wrote:

Hey....I gave it 1000 to one odds.....do you feel luck today????

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#13) On February 13, 2009 at 11:21 AM, JoeAgresti (< 20) wrote:

alstry needs to find a woman fast i feel sorry for you

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#14) On February 13, 2009 at 11:31 AM, alstry (36.24) wrote:

Alstry has a buddy that owns a bunch of strip clubs.....and for his age Alstry isn't half bad looking......if he wasn't happily married....how difficult do you think it would be for Alstry to get a woman??????

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#15) On February 13, 2009 at 11:32 AM, RonChapmanJr (58.45) wrote:

For those of you who are actually trying to get prepared for what Alstry believes is on the way, check out a site I run - www.survival-information.com.  Having food and ammo will be more important than gold bars and a nicely diversified portfolio should everything go crazy.

peace,

ron

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#16) On February 13, 2009 at 12:03 PM, wparkinson (< 20) wrote:

well, ron, having a lot of crazies running around with ammo (and i presume guns) is really going to cure all

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#17) On February 13, 2009 at 12:12 PM, njbrown113 (< 20) wrote:

I think your sevice is crap Alstry, and I hope all your negativity bites you in your ass one of these days, I'm sorry I don't hope it bites in your ass, I know it will bite you in your ass. All your negativity only creates more negativity, and one day, there will be a rain cloud of crap and dispair over you and only you, others will prosper, and you my fellow fool, will perish.

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#18) On February 13, 2009 at 12:24 PM, alstry (36.24) wrote:

NJ....you should be ashamed of yourself.....I am here to rescue you from yourself and you are biting the hand that is offering help......

To imply that my blog is negative is absolutely insane...my blog only conveys FACTS and I draw inferences from those FACTS....

The fact that you may not like those inferences is your choosing and up to this point failing to heed them has been at your own peril.....

Right now the economy faces very serious hurldles.....I warned you about them a year ago....people are under a lot of distress and if you want to wish them back to happiness.....good luck.....me I will continue helping those that want to help themselves by offerering my perspective as I see it....

When things are turning around....I have little doubt I will be one of the first to call it......but right now things are getting WORSE!!!!   A LOT WORSE!!!!!!  based on the policy actions being imposed by our government and the FED.

It ain't hard to see it if your eyes are open......may I suggest waking up.......

I view myself as the Doctor of Alstrynomics.....and the economy is the patient......and right now the patient is critical and its condition is getting worse......there is nothing you or I can do about it......other than prepare and prosper.

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#19) On February 13, 2009 at 12:49 PM, Seano67 (27.65) wrote:

Seano thinks that Alstry rocks the Casbah, in fact Seano is actually thinking about pursuing a degree in Alstrynomics!

Seano's been looking for a guru for quite some time now, and Seano believes that Alstry just might be that guru! 

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