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IBDvalueinvestin (99.68)

Market is acting close to a "Market Meltdown Day"

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February 17, 2009 – Comments (23)

We should expect to see a major market meltdown of say -500 to -700 pt down day on DJIA with massive selling volume. Thats when you know we have climaxed on the selling pressure. But until that happens you can't say we reached bottom.

Gold is a safe haven in the mean time.

23 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 17, 2009 at 1:54 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

Markets tend to selloff in the week of Options Expiration.

Guess what week this is? Options Expiration week.

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#2) On February 17, 2009 at 2:08 PM, goldminingXpert (29.48) wrote:

It won't be today. Somebody is recklessly buying index futures all day to prop things up. Actually, sorry to correct you, but OPEX weeks usually don't feature big selloffs--the option writers try to pin stocks and indices to certain price levels so they don't have to pay off the options contracts. The option writers are deep underwater on Feb plays and will have to pay up big time to fulfill the puts--they'll do whatever they can to prop this market up through the end of Friday.

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#3) On February 17, 2009 at 2:13 PM, Rasbold (92.32) wrote:

Darkest before dawn, brothers. Darkest before dawn.

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#4) On February 17, 2009 at 2:14 PM, goldminingXpert (29.48) wrote:

Yeah Rasbold, this kind of post is a good sign the bottom is near. Now if only a couple more people would post similar things, we could know for sure that the bottom was in. As I type, the Dow has rebounded a good 50 points off the low from a few minutes ago.

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#5) On February 17, 2009 at 2:18 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

well with posts like you two staying positive, we also know the market will fall some more because it needs more shaking of the tree before it has reached bottom.

You need PANIC in the STREETS on Wall Street to know the bottom is in.

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#6) On February 17, 2009 at 2:21 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

A shocking -20% down day would be a great Day to get in the Market. Maybe we can get it this week.

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#7) On February 17, 2009 at 2:23 PM, goldminingXpert (29.48) wrote:

What exactly is the Dow opening on the low of the day -300 points -4% if it isn't panic? This is very similar to the day everyone and their dog was calling crash due to Bear Stearns collapsing. Dow opens -4% on the VERY LOW OF DAY and closes only slightly red. A crash here is way too obvious. The real doozies have come when unexpected (government votng on bank bailout for instance cause people were leaning bullish). Today, almost everyone is bearish, heck, cnbc was playing terminator music this morning.

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#8) On February 17, 2009 at 2:27 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

Nope your wrong, Many bulls got suckered into the market last week on the Stimulus plan. Now those bulls are getting slaughtered and there will be massive amounts of blood on wall street before this week is over.

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#9) On February 17, 2009 at 2:35 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

I would be shocked if we did not close down -300 + points on the DJIA.

 

So many got tricked into going long ahead of the stimulus plan signing and now they are getting their throats slit for entering into stimulus plan that is not really as stimulus as originally thought.

Its going to get ugly before it gets better.

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#10) On February 17, 2009 at 2:39 PM, Schmacko (65.00) wrote:

Not going to happen today.  It looks like 7600 is the new line.

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#11) On February 17, 2009 at 2:44 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

The Stimulus plan was just another scam to sucker in more people into the market and now they are getting slaughtered.

Why We Keep Falling for Financial Scams

Intelligent people have long been ruined by frauds. Psychologist Stephen Greenspan, who specializes in gullibility, explores why investors continue to be swindled -- and how he came to lose part of his savings to Bernard Madoff.
By STEPHEN GREENSPAN Illustration by Mick Coulas

There are few areas where skepticism is more important than how one invests one's life savings. Yet intelligent and educated people, some of them naïve about finance and others quite knowledgeable, have been ruined by schemes that turned out to be highly dubious and quite often fraudulent. The most dramatic example of this in American history is the recent announcement that Bernard Madoff, a highly regarded money manager and a former chairman of Nasdaq, has for years been running a very sophisticated Ponzi scheme, which by his own admission has defrauded wealthy investors, charities and other funds of at least $50 billion.

Financial scams are just one of the many forms of human gullibility -- along with war (the Trojan Horse), politics (WMDs in Iraq), relationships (sexual seduction), pathological science (cold fusion) and medical fads. Although gullibility has long been of interest in works of fiction (Othello, Pinocchio), religious documents (Adam and Eve, Samson) and folk tales ("The Emperor's New Clothes," "Little Red Riding Hood"), it has been almost completely ignored by social scientists. A few books have focused on narrow aspects of gullibility, including Charles Mackey's classic 19th-century book, "Extraordinary Popular Delusion and the Madness of Crowds" -- most notably on investment follies such as Tulipmania, in which rich Dutch people traded their houses for one or two tulip bulbs. In my new book "Annals of Gullibility," based on my academic work in psychology, I propose a multidimensional theory that would explain why so many people behave in a manner that exposes them to severe and predictable risks. This includes myself: After I wrote my book, I lost a good chunk of my retirement savings to Mr. Madoff, so I know of what I write on the most personal level.

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#12) On February 17, 2009 at 2:49 PM, goldminingXpert (29.48) wrote:

And yet you loved the stimulus plan two weeks ago: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=146903&t=01008631960540474609

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#13) On February 17, 2009 at 2:51 PM, Mary953 (74.46) wrote:

At first glance, I thought your last sentence read "God is a safe haven in the meantime."

That He Is!  Especially on days like this.

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#14) On February 17, 2009 at 2:56 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

Yes I liked the Stimulus plan until they got rid of the biggest thing that would have lifted the home inventory out of the rut it is in with the $15k credit to any home buyer.

A credit that is now only $8000 and only to first time home buyers. That takes majority that would have bought out of the picture now.

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#15) On February 17, 2009 at 3:01 PM, Mary953 (74.46) wrote:

And He is not a popular delusion. Even Stephen Greenspan might do well to consider this particular refuge in the storm.  I think, by the way, that tulipmania was more of a fad than a fraud.  Speaking of which, is anyone bullish on Beanie Babies? 

For my part, I am researching dividend stocks that have been around and will be around for a while and getting my money ready to "jump in" when the market decides to stop dropping like a stone.  Until then, I plan to keep playing with the monopoly money that is the CAPS system and learning as much as possible.

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#16) On February 17, 2009 at 3:04 PM, SteveTheInvestor (< 20) wrote:

I would like to see the S&P around 650 before I start feeling comfortable getting back in.  The economy offers no promise that I can see.  Nothing to be optimistic about.  Pretty much everything is at risk.  For now, I'm staying mostly in cash and making an occasional quick trade where I can.

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#17) On February 17, 2009 at 3:07 PM, goldminingXpert (29.48) wrote:

You from comment #8

"Nope your wrong, Many bulls got suckered into the market last week on the Stimulus plan"

You from comment #14

"Yes I liked the Stimulus plan."

You from last week:

"Had to sell it all."

-----

Sounds like you were the one getting suckered.

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#18) On February 17, 2009 at 3:17 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

By selling it all I didn't get suckered.

You can assume whatever you want GMX , but the truth is we will hit 7,000 DJIA 

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#19) On February 17, 2009 at 3:19 PM, goldminingXpert (29.48) wrote:

We will hit 7,000 at some point, but by then you'll have called three new bull markets first.

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#20) On February 17, 2009 at 3:23 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

I hope so but I doubt it.

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#21) On February 17, 2009 at 3:45 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

Watch Gold Crash on Wed. after today's big up day. But longterm its a buy after tomorrow's crash.

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#22) On February 17, 2009 at 5:09 PM, goldminingXpert (29.48) wrote:

At 2:35PM you wrote: "I would be shocked if we did not close down -300 + points on the DJIA."

I guess you're shocked then.

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#23) On February 17, 2009 at 5:28 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

We closed down -297 so my prediction was off by -4 points you call that being wrong?

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