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JimVanMeerten (65.24)

Market is extremely strong

Recs

8

April 24, 2010 – Comments (8)

At the end of each week in Financial Tides, I like to clear my head of all the articles and newscasts that have clouded my vision during the week and look at just the facts. I use the data on Barchart to give me the 3 yard sticks to measure the market performance. Then I plan my strategy for the coming week.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it is broader than the S&P 500 or much narrower Dow 30 -- Still climbing

- Index up this week by 3.55% -- up for 3 months in a row

- Index closed Friday above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average

- Hit new highs in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and was 5 for 5 last week

- 7.21% price appreciation for this month

- 100% Barchart technical buy -- 13 of 13 technical buy signals

Barchart Market Momentum -- Percentage of stocks closing above their daily moving averages for various time frames -- Above 50% is always better

 - 20 DMA -- 77.90% closed above -- 68.30% last week -- 64.93% last month

 - 50 DMA -- 85.01% closed above -- 83.15% last week -- 78.65% last month

 - 100 DMA -- 86.21% closed above -- 83.86% last week -- 78.42% last month

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ = bullish, 1.0 = neutral, below .99 = bearish -- Very bullish

 - 20 day new high/new low ratio -- 2350/413 = 5.69

 -  65 day new high/new low ratio -- 1860/140 = 13.29

 -  100 day new high/new low ratio -- 1664/106 = 15.70

Investment Strategy -- Since all 3 yard sticks are positive I'll continue to stay in the market. I'll cull stocks that don't close above their 50 DMA and replace them.

Wall Street Survivor results -- The columnists who contribute to Top Stocks have a little friendly competition going over on Wall Street Survivor . I'm climbing out of the hole I was in and month to day I'm in first place with a 9.3% return just ahead of John Reese with a 5.15% return and we're both ahead of the S&P turning in a 4.09% return. We still have a full week to go this month so anything can happen.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I do own positions in stocks mentioned in my blogs

 

 

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 24, 2010 at 12:04 PM, ralphmachio (28.60) wrote:

Very much like the smell of a beached whale, the market is strong.

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#2) On April 24, 2010 at 12:54 PM, Tacomatight (68.05) wrote:

Jim,

Nice post thanks. I'm going to add these numbers to the end of my week think as well. One question, do u think any chance in hell Citigroup will breakout before May Calls come in?

 

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#3) On April 25, 2010 at 2:30 PM, JimVanMeerten (65.24) wrote:

predicting the future is for Gypsies?   I just ride the tides

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#4) On April 25, 2010 at 2:30 PM, JimVanMeerten (65.24) wrote:

Go to Barchart and read the charts.....it's free

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#5) On April 25, 2010 at 2:40 PM, atarigod (< 20) wrote:

I can't think of anything that is going to derail the market from trending higher. I would welcome a 3-5% pullback as I see that as healthy, more than 5% I see as a virtual impossibility. The only thing I can really see sending the market down more than 5% is an immediate implosion of the Euro, not even a slow bleed of it is going to send the market down big. Perhaps something with Iran & Israel, other than that can anyone else think of BIG enough news to send it down?

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#6) On April 25, 2010 at 2:45 PM, RLAprof (< 20) wrote:

The only thing I can think of BIG enough would be if all the banks were required to mark their true losses at once. But I am not a soothsayer. In 2009, the FDIC closed 140 banks. Thus far in 2010, they have closed 57.

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#7) On April 30, 2010 at 9:11 AM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Gosh, the only big things I can think about are: unemployment ending soon for millions, European debt crisis (Greece alone needs 300 billion and it's the smallest of about 5 that are prime candidates for eventual default), the government and fed's money ends for commercial real estate in June, Elections coming up in November, lots of European elections coming sooner... I could list more but that should be fine for now.

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#8) On April 30, 2010 at 9:13 AM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Oh well I will mention that on technicals a few indexes are very close to 61.8 Fib retraces AND are in rising wedges.

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