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goldminingXpert (29.59)

Market Outlook & New Picks

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April 21, 2009 – Comments (16) | RELATED TICKERS: FAZ , SKF , DOG

GMX is entering the fray--taking advantadge of the cheap-shot nature of red thumbing double longs, I've piled into the mix. This market is just about done rising. It's time to get your bearish bets rolling. I also hand-picked a selection of ultrashort green thumbs that should prove juicy.

Here is my market outlook:

"This market is about to head south. Like geese migrating away from the lovely Canadian north to the less desirable American lakes, the S&P will migrate from its vacation cottage in the 800s and return to its habitat in the 600s."

16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 21, 2009 at 1:31 PM, mustbepatient (29.54) wrote:

Nice bold bet GMX!

I think that we get a near-term pullback followed by one final rise to new highs, but I don't have a strong feeling about the depth of the pullback.  It could be that we trade mostly sideways for a few weeks before popping up.  Historically, bear markets end at the 200-dma, and we're a ways away from there yet.

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#2) On April 21, 2009 at 1:33 PM, pjani06 (29.30) wrote:

There's probably more flushing out of the shorts that the market makers i bet would like to see...until volatility levels go down atleast another 20% (which would probably bring on too many bulls on board), I dont see the market at its bear rally peak.  Still more upside to come until the market really starts falling.

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#3) On April 21, 2009 at 1:36 PM, goldminingXpert (29.59) wrote:

I think 880 is peak upside. We could go back there. I'll be surprised (and quite wrong) if 880 is violated to the upside. The bears I know are started to get worried...this is usually a good sign. Plus I don't see people running in and declaring that it is an amazing time to short nearly as frequently as a few weeks ago after big up days. Yesterday was a decisive break of the uptrend off the March lows (draw a trendline on S&P chart to see what I mean). We broke down off 880, which was old overhead resistance from February and now we have a nice up day to get short into. Feels like a juicy set-up to me.

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#4) On April 21, 2009 at 2:59 PM, HansHauge (32.50) wrote:

Right there with you. I red thumbed the double longs last week and green thumbed the double and tripple shorts. Volatility can pay off in a big way.

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#5) On April 21, 2009 at 3:04 PM, AnomaLee (28.71) wrote:

The S&P had a hard enough time finding buyers to reach 875.

Friday was the highest volume day for the S&P500 since it's went beyond 800. High volume, narrow trading range sounded like a lot of redemptions were going on. Oh yea.. it sure was an expiration day

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#6) On April 21, 2009 at 4:36 PM, outoffocus (23.29) wrote:

Thank you GMX. I've been waiting for this blog.

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#7) On April 21, 2009 at 7:32 PM, Buckaneer (< 20) wrote:

granted, never know when it's coming. downturn could come anyday, but i would personally wait.

 watch out. i'd wait for a real short squeeze of amazing proportions - when the crowd gets in on masse. i would like to see more extreme market conditions, like a rise close to 950 on the S&P - then time to go short.

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#8) On April 21, 2009 at 7:40 PM, goldminingXpert (29.59) wrote:

I said back on January 7th that 943 was THE TOP for 2009. I'm still right about that. Out with this 950 talk. ;)

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#9) On April 22, 2009 at 12:16 AM, FleaBagger (28.85) wrote:

I still like a little bank exposure, in case shareholders are allowed to benefit from the banks' Obama-sanctioned robbery of the American taxpayer.

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#10) On April 22, 2009 at 12:27 AM, goldminingXpert (29.59) wrote:

Like asbestos, bank exposure might be good for you, but I wouldn't recommend it.

GMX owns CM but wouldn't buy an American bank unless held at gunpoint.

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#11) On April 23, 2009 at 2:54 PM, SideShowMel0329 (54.09) wrote:

Typical permabear attitude.

The 600 levels won't be seen again. We're already through the worst parts of this recession. All the bad news has been priced in, and the rally isn't because people see the economy recovering, it's because people see the market as oversold.

Expect the S&P to bottom out slightly lower where it is now, and prepare for another bull market rally.

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#12) On April 23, 2009 at 4:39 PM, goldminingXpert (29.59) wrote:

All the bad news has been priced in

That's a good one. There's always another shoe drop.

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#13) On April 23, 2009 at 10:37 PM, geniusjigs (< 20) wrote:

Bulls seems to be tired so I guess its bears turn now!

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#14) On April 23, 2009 at 10:45 PM, alot2learnyet (38.12) wrote:

Some say the next shoe to drop will be with the credit card side of debt... the mortgage mess being the first... has Obama mitigated that with his preemptive meeting and possible congressional action?  I agree that a pull-back is due, but will it be a pullback or a another serious downturn?

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#15) On April 23, 2009 at 11:59 PM, goldminingXpert (29.59) wrote:

People are going to be surprised when more banks start dropping like flies.

I also don't get who people say this market is overvalued when the S&P 500 will be lucky to put out $50 of earnings. That puts the market P/E at 16+ -- and that is STILL over the historical average. That's right folks, stocks are still a little bit OVERvalued.

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#16) On April 24, 2009 at 2:57 PM, EggplantWizard (99.47) wrote:

It's precisely because the market is overvalued that I'm 3:1 short to long at the moment, and happy that way.

I'm not counting on seeing 666 again, but I'll go to neutral, at least around S&P 800 and log biased in the mid 700s. 

If we fall to 400, I don't care -- in 10 years, it will be fine.

But in two months, I'd be shocked if these prices don't look expensive.

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