binve (< 20)

23 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 04, 2009 at 5:57 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Technicals

Medium and Short Term Count for the SPX:

- July 28 -
From Thursday to Today, I think I called the top 3 times. LOL! But as you can see from the price action, it basically went nowhere. I think it reached the peak it needed to on Thursday, and the last 4 trading days just extended the action sideways to make it the proper duration for A (this was in retrospect a very fast run up for a minor wave, so a little sideways action seems necessary. Hindsight is 20/20 I guess. :) But a good lesson for future runs). So the 5th wave did end up morphing into an ending diagonal. I think columbia was the first to identify this final diagonal. Nice job col!

As I watch SPX, INDU, COMPQ, and RUT there are a lot of compelling aspects to this 5th wave diagonal. The C wave (most confusing) was the one that become very complex and extended. This is analytically pleasing as the C waves in diagonals / triangles are typically the most complex. Also there was a E wave overshoot on the NASDAQ, which made a higher high. As the Nasdaq / tech has been leading this rally of late, it makes sense it would make one last rally to finish of minor A, making a higher high and not a failed / stunted diagonal.

Also you will see in the charts below (on the SPY chart in particualar) I am drawing wedge-ish trendlines around P2. This was an idea that I borrowed heavily from Daneric. His website is at: http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/. Please check out his site. Phenomenal work! Good logic and counts!

- July 30 -
Well, make this the 4th time. Jeez :) So what was a top, instead became Wave 4 consolidation. Very much like what happened on a larger scale in late May / early June. In fact a similar thing happened - topping into consolidation. Breakout, churning for awhile, and then one last small breakout and then a definitive breakdown. That was almost a mirror for this rally. Then last week was topping that turned into consolidation, then a breakout, then churning. Actually, we did not get the last small breakout. Which is why I have the alternate counts below. Something still smells a bit fishy with the count. 985 was resistance, not it is support. We need to break down definitively through that level for the top to be in. There is a risk tomorrow morning that we bounce off 985 and make a run to 1000 (psychological resistance) or 1007 (Nov 2008 resistance) before A is done. Just something to be aware of. Thanks to cabot and geno whose counts have been among the cleanest for this rally!

- Aug 4 -
Well, make this the 8th time!! ... actually this is now getting past funny. But called the top (again) just the same. Made a comment with charts at 1:00 pm real time. See comment #35 of this post. The A wave kept extending in every way possible. The 3rd was extended. There was a huge sideways triangle for days for Wave 4. Then Wave 5 turned out to be a major wave. Then Wave 4 of 5 extended sideways for 2 days in a double correction. Then 5 of 5 became a diagonal to extend. Then 5 of 5 of 5 !!! in itself became a diagonal to extend!!. If there are any more extensions possible, I don't know of them. So since I am out of numbers and letters, I am calling a top ... LOL!!

First is the unencumbered count, so you can see it cleanly



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Next are some longer term trendline and trading charts. I use Elliot Wave, Fib Retrace and Fib Fans, Support / Resistance, Trendlines and Channels, and Indicators, Volume, etc. Lots different views on the data to try to get a picture of what is going on. Some of this work and charts I have had for a long time, but some is also recent. We have regular chart brainstorming sessions on the CIL, and this helps to make better charts for all involved! Including GV, AC, Col, Russ, Cabot, geno, dan, IIcx, crystlz, Flame, Sal, Port, etc. (sorry for missing anybody!). You are welcome to stop by and join in or just listen!



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Here are the shorter term and micro counts. Move looks complete for Wave A (... how many times have I said that ... :) ). But we are seeing bearish divergences on the indicators to help signal an end of the move. Even with the move today, bearish divergences are intact and getting more, well, bearish :)



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Sectors and US Dollar:

July 23: The dollar is the key item to watch here. The weak dollar has fueled this equity rally. But as soon as the dollar rallies for a little while (DISCLAIMER: I am *NOT* a Dollar Bull, and think it is doomed long term. I am talking about short term technicals here), this overdone leg of the rally will stop. The dollar bounced of weak support 3 times this past week, then bounced hard of stronger support. It recaptured the next support line back up. On 30 min terms, the dollar looks to be putting in a pretty convincing short term bottom.

July 28: The USDX bounced of 78.40 (78.36) twice this week and bounced back up both times. There were 4 attempts to break below 78.60, where it could no stay there. UUP has a positive MACD cross on a 30 minute chart with plenty of bullish divergence, and 3 day MA has turned up. I think the dollar has put in it short term bottom and will be trading higher from here for the next several days / couple weeks.

July 30: Rally continues. There was some weakness overnight (fueling the last rally today) and it is still be between two support level and pulling away from the lower one.

Aug 4: The dollar rallied and then reversed sharply down to a major support level (at 77.5). Will it hold here for a little while? Chances look good. But based on recent history ... maybe not that good :)



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Long Term (for kicks):

I use terms like Primary Wave 2 being simply a bullish correction in an overall larger bear market. Here is my chart that goes with it. I have shared this before, but here it is again.



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Please feel free to comment, disagree, discuss. And even if you don’t agree with my conclusions, please rec if you appreciate the effort or the explanation of my thoughts, even if you use them draw different conclusions than mine.

The binv standard disclaimer: This in no way constitutes investing advice. All of these opinions are my own and I am simply sharing them. I am not trying to convince anybody to do anything with their money. I am simply offering up ideas for the sake of discussion. As always, everybody is expected to do their own due diligence and to ulimately be comfortable with their own investing decisions.

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#2) On August 04, 2009 at 6:58 PM, goldminingXpert (30.72) wrote:

It's tough being a sane man in an insane market. Keep up the good analysis.

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#3) On August 04, 2009 at 7:12 PM, Mark910 (< 20) wrote:

"It eased into the water like an old man into a nice warm bath"

spying on me?   good post  +1rec.

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#4) On August 04, 2009 at 7:30 PM, dragonLZ (99.39) wrote:

Very pretty charts binve...

p.s. Thank you. I showed them to my wife and now she belives me there are people out there who spend more time researching the market than I do... (didn't wan't to say "who are creasier than I am...)

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#5) On August 04, 2009 at 8:23 PM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

Binve   do you have any charts on the Chinese or Indian markets?   I think they may be much more important as leading indicators than the US right now.

Or maybe the collective emerging markets? As near as I can tell that is where the real leadership and action is. They are controlling the fundamentals of the global market right now including the strength of the $ and the price of T-Bonds at least to some extent.

Do you have any insights on Europe?

I think we make a mistake when we divorce the US market action from the global action. The concommitant variation is rather strong right now.

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#6) On August 04, 2009 at 9:55 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

goldminingXpert, Hey GMX, thanks man! Will do :)

Mark910, .... uhhhhh.....

"It eased into the water like an old man into a nice warm bath" spying on me? 

Dude, that was not the image of you I was trying to conjure up !... :) LOL! (just kidding).

Thanks man (regarding the good post comment) :)

dragonLZ, Thanks :) and LOL! no it's okay, you can say crazier, I will accept that :)

StopLaughing, No, I don't really watch the Chinese or Indian markets much (not on a daily basis at least), however I recently did a count of the Hang Seng, as some of us were talking about it. The chart is below.

Very interesting observations regarding the rest of the world vs. the US. Because the weak dollar currently is the main driver of the equity rally. At some point (as happened in 2007-2008 and many other times) though, both the dollar and the markets will fall together. It will be interesting to see how the DAX, FTSE, HSI, Nikkei, etc. all fare when this decoupling does start taking place (with respect to the American markets), because generally most of the equity markets across the globe are trading more or less in tandem.

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#7) On August 04, 2009 at 11:24 PM, outoffocus (24.42) wrote:

because generally most of the equity markets across the globe are trading more or less in tandem

Could this mean that its the same players moving all the markets?

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#8) On August 04, 2009 at 11:59 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

outoffocus, Hey :), Yeah I do think there is a suprising/not-so-surprising amount of similar participation across nearly all the equity markets. This makes sense too because 2007 peaked in the midst of the popping of the greatest financial bubble ever. The ensuing correction decimated nearly all asset classes (equities and commodites in particular) due the the huge de-leveraging unwind.

But what is particularly interesting is when you watch the leaders.

Hang Seng (HSI) is the leader of the Asian Markets and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is the leader of the US Markets (I am not saying these indicies are the most representative of the Hong Kong and US economies, the just tend to be the leaders). If you do an overlay of the NDX on top of the HSI, they are *eerily* similar in structure, depth of the crash, size of the bounce back up, timing of the major moves, etc..

Nearly all the equity markets are coupled right now, because we had a fear-based / deleveraging sell-off and a oversold technical bounce proceeded by a bullish mania.

In the next several months, the real fundamentals (not what everybody is talking about now, green shoots and such) will begin to show de-coupling among the markets. I would not be surprised to see indices like the HSI and DAX to outperform, Nikkei maybe in the middle, and FTSE and the US indices to underperform (all relative to eachother).

Throw in a currency crisis in the Dollar and things will get even more interesting. :).

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#9) On August 05, 2009 at 12:00 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Binve:

Doesn't this start to look like nonsense even to you?  If someone spent real money following this, they'd be collecting tickets in your local movie theater.

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#10) On August 05, 2009 at 12:12 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Donnernv, LOL! I hear you. (and yes, I used to be an usher in a movie theater) :). The point is not to do forecasts and go all-in on them as if they were veritable certainties (which obviously based on my track record, they are not)

The point is to identify risk/reward setups and assign weightings to them. And if you look at my calls at the top of the post, you see where I am coming from.

Take right now for instance. We had a move from 869 to 1007 from July 9 to Aug 4, with no signficant pullback. Does this mean we absolutely cannot go higher? Of course not. But what I am saying is that the risk/reward favors being short at this moment vs. being long. The EW counts and the technical indication on 30 min, 60 min and daily all say the same thing.

Which is why, if you are following my calls, is to scale in to shorts. I was 100% cash last month. I added a 10% short position on July 23, another 10% Aug 3, and then another 10% today. And the more we go up without a pullback the more short I will be up to 50%. Why, because I realize we are in a bullish phase of the market right now.

I think we will get a pullback this week and will last for a few weeks. I also think the market will make a new high before the rally is all over, so I will move from shorts into longs in Late August. Which I said above.

So from first glance, I agree on its face it looks like nonsense. Maybe even on a second glance too :) But if you dig deeper and read what I am writing here and have written in the past, you will see my philosophy of trying to find good risk/reward setups and not to "predict the market with 100% accuracy"

But if you want, I can get you a job down at the movie theater. I need to re-apply myself :)..

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#11) On August 05, 2009 at 12:44 AM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

Stratfor is suggesting that Israel may come under attack soon in the N. The J Post is reporting the same thing.

There may soon be rocket attacks and war in N Israel and S Lebanon. 

That will probably jack oil up. I am not sure what that does to the market but it probably would correct.

I am not planning on going short but could add to oil or gold. In the past Hezbolla wars have lasted a few weeks. They have better weapons this time. Iran may need a war to try to stop the political tension within it's own borders. 

Israel is getting ready to bomb Iran but they really do not have the weapons needed to take out all of the nukes. To be effective they would have to have US operatives run some of the raid and hide US involvement. 

I do not think Obama has what it takes to defend Israel much less attack Iran. 

This could get interesting. 

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#12) On August 05, 2009 at 2:06 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Binve:

"I think we will get a pullback this week and will last for a few weeks. I also think the market will make a new high before the rally is all over, so I will move from shorts into longs in Late August."

Translated:  The market is going to down some for awhile, then it'll go up some for awhile.  We're talking about a 26 day span.

You need a dozen charts for that?  The market always goes down some for awhile then up some for awhile.  I hope you don't bet the ranch on the timing of this "while" or that "while".  It's nonsense.

You tell me the day it's going down and the day it will start back up, and for how long, and I might invest my movie usher earnings in this mumbo-jumbo.  'Til then, put me in the snickering skeptic camp.

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#13) On August 05, 2009 at 7:49 AM, Mark910 (< 20) wrote:

Haha,

from the snickering skeptic camp....I read these skeptically as well, but then I read my own blog skeptically too.  Come to think of it being a skeptic would be a good thing.  And a little snicker now and then wouldn't hurt as long as you look at your own views with the same doubt. 

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#14) On August 05, 2009 at 7:58 AM, Londamania (62.67) wrote:

Hey Binve :)  Some counterpoints to think about re: your Fundamentals position.  The market is going up because more and more people are becoming convinced that things are going to get better over the next few years and we aren't going to crash again.  (This is contrary to most of the active CAPS bloggers).  The stock buyers ( and I am one now) want to buy low and sell high - the essence of investing.  I think what a lot of people miss in all this is you can't wait for the fundamentals to be all great and obvious and still buy low - by then that ship sailed.  You have to take risks (hopefully educated and calculated ones) and then when the fundamentals come in for sure - sell to everyone who waited too long to buy :)  Or if you like the future hold for more upside :)  What people see now is that the fundamentals have turned a corner, they show signs of life, they show they can slowly get better.  Revenues are in general UP - from last quarter for the good companies. They are down from last year (duh!) and sometimes down from projections.  But they are up from last quarter in many places.  That is a BIG sign of life.

I see you taking risks with your short positions as the market rises but find it hard to believe that with all the potential stocks out there and the consistent market pressure up you can't find some stocks to be long in for this rally that has now gone on since March with all the requisite pullbacks for a bull market. 

A great one to look at is Intel for instance.  No debt.  Market leader (market leaders are where to go in a tough market IMO).  Look at the one year chart - it's crash proof.  Pays a dividend about equal to a good CD.  This a great stock to get long in on a pullback IMO.  At least have some long positions.  I am making a killing on my long positions and if the market starts to tank I have plenty of room to detect that and still make a nice profit.

If we pullback as you say to 950 I am all in.  I wasn't able to get into all my positions STILL from three weeks ago since my target stocks just won't pull back and I am not buying into the rise.  I have missed 20% returns in three weeks on these stocks.  UGH!  I want a pullback to get all in!  Q3 results will improve for the good companies.  Not a lot.  Just some.  And the market will rise again when they do - at least for the good (market leader, well run) companies.

I hope the China bubble will pop soon - that will bring things back some so I can buy them up.  China's economic data is contrived by the state and not accurate - they appear to making cars right now so they can sit in large dealer parking lots.  When that gets sorted out we will see a correction.

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#15) On August 05, 2009 at 9:18 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

StopLaughing, I agree, those would all be very bad developments that will cause chaos in many markets (most especially oil).

Donnernv, In your first comment you made a jerk-ish statment buy not overly hostile:

Doesn't this start to look like nonsense even to you?  If someone spent real money following this, they'd be collecting tickets in your local movie theater.

So I responded, shared my thoughts, even admitted freely some of your criticism, and tried some witty batter.

Now you are a jerk *and* overtly hostile in your second comment:

You need a dozen charts for that?  The market always goes down some for awhile then up some for awhile.  I hope you don't bet the ranch on the timing of this "while" or that "while".  It's nonsense.

You tell me the day it's going down and the day it will start back up, and for how long, and I might invest my movie usher earnings in this mumbo-jumbo.  'Til then, put me in the snickering skeptic camp.

And not only is it obvious in retrospect that you did not read the orginal post above (which is fine, I realize it was long), but it is clear you did not even read my response to you. 

From my frist response above: 

The point is not to do forecasts and go all-in on them as if they were veritable certainties (which obviously based on my track record, they are not).

But if you dig deeper and read what I am writing here and have written in the past, you will see my philosophy of trying to find good risk/reward setups and not to "predict the market with 100% accuracy"

So next time, first do me the courtesy of reading my direct response to you first before making further inane comments.

Next

I am not trying to convince anybody of anything. You may hate TA and think it bogus. Fine. You may think Elliot Wave is garbage. Perfect. You may think my fundamental stance is idiotic. Good for you. I am quite literally fine with all of those responses. I am sharing my thoughts. That's it. Maybe it is useful to you, maybe it is not. I have nothing to sell. I am not trying to wow you with prognostications, nor am I trying to indisputably prove that TA works. I am sharing my thoughts. Nothing more, nothing less.

So whether you or anybody else looks at my work and follow it because it makes sense, or uses it to do the exact opposite becuase you think I am wrong, or you simply ignore it because you think it is stupid: It is immaterial to me. That is not the point. I am sharing my thoughts. That is the point.

Please read this rant first before responding any further.

Finally,

You tell me the day it's going down and the day it will start back up, and for how long, and I might invest my movie usher earnings in this mumbo-jumbo.  'Til then, put me in the snickering skeptic camp.

Per my points above, I am not asking you to do anything with your money. Whether you personally are in the snickering skeptic camp or not, I could care less.

However you are now officially on record as being a skeptic of my work. Feel free to not waste your precious time to come up with and write down such useful / insightful thougths such as these in the future.

Mark910, We have talked about this in the past. I know you are a skeptic. And that is fine. We have had many civil and useful discussion despite our differing viewpoints!. But you are not overtly a jerk, nor are you hostile. And that makes all the difference in the world.

I love having discussions with people who are skepticial. I have no desire to waste my time arguing with jerks :)

Londamania, Hey Londamania!

The market is going up because more and more people are becoming convinced that things are going to get better over the next few years and we aren't going to crash again.

I agree with that statement 100%. That is completely the reason. However, that sort of makes my point. At the end of a correction or at the zenith before a big crash (such as Nov 2007) *everybody* is bullish. Wall St. Institutions, and then finally the average investor.

FWIW, I will be going long right along side you with this next pullback. I too believe the market will be higher than it is now in the coming couple of months. A pullback to 950 and then a move back above 1000 will be very bullish and pull in a lot of the "average investors". Being skeptical, I also call them the bagholders. Because like you say in your first paragraph, stock buyers want to buy low and sell high. And that only works if you find somebody who want to buy it from you when you sell high.

And I hear you regarding fundamentals. I know we disagree. And yeah, Intel is an example of a market leader with no debt. But I highly doubt you can make a strong case for the rest of the market based on Intel's example from the Revenue reports this past quarter. Like you said above, Revenue was up for good companies, but by and large they were not good across the board. Po-tay-toes, Po-tah-toes I guess :)

Thanks for your thoughts, I do enjoy our disagreements and discussion. I will be long by September, but I won't be long for very long :).

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#16) On August 05, 2009 at 10:42 AM, cthomas1017 (35.93) wrote:

stoplaughing,

Stratfor said that?  Uh oh.  I have their alerts coming to an inbox I don't check as much as I used to.  Street cred extrodinaire.  They give a timeline?  Emminent?  Fall?  End of year?

 Talk now is major expansion into Afgan wilderness.  More dollars.  This in Israel, I'd say we might walk from there.  (Fast an unpopular war and Obama won't tolerate losing his base on top of now losing hte majority of the American people.  We lose Afganistan.  Iraq will go crisis and we will lose our base to "influence" Iran.  Can't imagine how bad it could get if oil (WTC) goes back to $150+ and consumer spending tanks due to uncertainty.  Perfect storm kind of stuff.

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#17) On August 05, 2009 at 1:49 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

I have to imagine much of the "speculation" will be accounted from the USD. I am watching the dollar...personally. As for the market.....up, down, sideways, whatever.

In the end, either you are playing the timing game, waiting game, or dam I am good bell ringing game.

I still see the market going up more from these levels, but who knows how much or the time frame, so I am basically a dud sitting on the sideline and I am happy with that:)

Milk duds anybody. They are always great for hours of entertainment at the theatres. You just can't seem to eat those dam things without picking them out of your teeth. Whoever inveted them did a marvelous job on the taste, but really fouled up on the prolonged effects of eating them.

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#18) On August 05, 2009 at 2:22 PM, puccini3005 (30.20) wrote:

Binve,

8th time is a charm?  Looks like you may have got it this time!  Thanks for sharing all your extensive and hard work with the community.  I for one (and at least 31 others, and counting...) really enjoyed this post.

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#19) On August 05, 2009 at 4:20 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

madcowmonkey, Hey bud :)

In the end, either you are playing the timing game, waiting game, or dam I am good bell ringing game.

Or like me, all three :)

Yeah, I also think after a correction we will get a rally that takes us to higher-highs. But not a buy-and-hold rally. A relatively short term, dump onto the bag-holders type rally. I think Late Fall is when things start getting 2008-type ugly gain. My thoughts, for what they are worth :)

Milk Duds. What a dud :) Yeah, they taste okay but what a PITA, well more like a Pain in the Molar :). Junior Mints, now that's a movie snack. It's chocolate, it's peppermint-- it's delicious! :)

puccini3005, Hey, thanks for the comment and the compliments!! I really appreciate them :)

Well, 3rd time would have been the charm, and the 6th time would have be random luck, but the 8th time! (now consider that I had to make 7 consecutive incorrect calls prior to that) now that seems like destiny! ... or maybe not :) LOL!.

Thanks :).

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#20) On August 05, 2009 at 6:11 PM, darroj (60.77) wrote:

binve - ignore the skeptics and the people who don't matter. Most of us, including myself, appreciate your efforts and thoughts!  GL with your shorts, I'm trying to figure out what to do with the few dollars I've scraped together.. :)

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#21) On August 05, 2009 at 6:38 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

darroj, Hey my man :) Thanks, I really appreciate that!

And just to be clear, I really don't mind having discussions with skeptics. Mark910, antictrade, StopLaughing, awallejr and so many others don't necessarily agree with my TA (either my analysis, or the fact that it "works") or my FA. But we have good discussions because we are actually discussing things.

Other times, such as the example above, the conversation is not good because the skeptic in question is not interested in a discussion, just wants to leave insults. And that is not productive for anybody, least of all the skeptic who wrote the insult to begin with. I wonder why they would waste everybody's time like that, especially their own?

The point is, I don't mind discussing these ideas with skeptics or people who disagree with me, provided they actually want to have a polite and civil discussion. However, I have no interest in wasting my time having an argument with a jerk.

Thanks for all your support darroj!. Good luck to you too!!.

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#22) On August 06, 2009 at 12:56 PM, Londamania (62.67) wrote:

Hey Bin - good to hear and I hope we do retrace a bit so you can get in and I can completely get in.  Some thoughts on this:

 1.  We aren't the only ones with this idea so if gets anywhere near 950 including intraday and then starts to come back up, pull the trigger.  Don't miss and wait for another chance we won't get one if July is any indication.

2.  I predict if we get this pullback that there will be a +300-400 point DOW day soon after it (it will be +200 easy those are cheap to come by these days lol)  as a tidal wave floods into the market.  We need to make sure we are on it :)

3.  Don't shake out too soon like last time :)  If we have learned anything these past few months it's that who the heck knows what is going to happen but the pattern seems up.  Assuming you have some nice gains consider not getting shook out by a modest retracement.  Unless their is real bad unexpected news combined with some big down days, try and hang in there.  We may very well ride up, flat a while with some modest give back, then ride up again.  Like a bull market that we might really be in does :)

4.  If the market hangs around 1000 for a while and then starts to go up again, that might be the only chance unless you want to miss another ride up.  It's having a tough time doing down - it dips interday and ends back near the start.  Been doing that a LOT this past month.

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#23) On August 07, 2009 at 12:38 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

**UPDATE and TRADE ALTERT**

Here are my counts. I still stand by Wave A peaking in the original analysis above. We had today a higher high on the SPX and INDU, but not on the RUT, COMPQ, and NDX. This non-confirmation is a classic Wave B overshoot type signal. Plus the NDX has been the "leader" index. It should be leading / making higher highs at the end of wave A.

I went short another 10% at SPX 1014 (currently 60% cash, 40% short). 50% is the max short position I will take at this time.

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