McCain will Win and the Market May/Will Rally
I understand many believe Obama is going to win by a landslide, even Intrade has the odds for Obama. But in the back of my mind, I think McCain is going to win.
1. Obama will undermine the "Affirmative Action" many enjoy.
Many Obama supporters recognize Obama undermines the “victim class” and the “affirmative action" that many have benefited from.
The question would be "why do you need Affirmative Action, if the guy sitting in the White House has more melatonin then you and he is the PRESIDENT?" I believe in the back of many of the "victim classes" recipients an Obama victory undermines their story and government dole payout. So when the curtains in the voting booth are closed many will vote for McCain.
2. Young people do not vote, they go to rallies for fun. That is why they have to pay Social Security and Medicare to old people playing golf in Florida. Many Obama supporters think Obama is going to win by a large margin, and may not show up.
3. Old people do vote. Old people will vote for an old person aka the "devil they know", which is McCain. That is why the receive Medicare and Social Security from young people that are working at Subway and WalMart. McCain himself receives four paychecks from the government: Military retirement, Senate pay, 100% disability, I forgot the other one…
4. The Bradley effect theorizes that the inaccurate polls were skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias. Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor in to voters' answers.
5. Many people, who normally do not vote will come out to vote against Obama. The world is racist. Sorry, people will vote based on race, people will come out of the "wood work" to vote against Obama. Look at the panic Lordz is having...
6. Although America has one of the largest governments (by cost) ever created, Americans are trained to hate socialism and tax increases. Many will come out to vote against Obama for fear of socialism. The inflation tax of printing money out thin air is not something most Americans understand.
7. Obama is also the "big unknown", people vote for "the devil they know", which is McCain.
8. Homer Simpson can show you another reason McCain will win:
I believe McCain will rally the market in nominal terms. The FED has printed and created credit to move the market up Zimbabwe style. Ultimately, in real terms the market is heading lower. Also, McCain had Mr Enron, Phil Graham, as an advisor, McCain has referred to him many times.
Do you think Mr Enron Loophole Phil Graham cannot find some accounting tricks or FED/Treasury magic, to send the markets higher if it keeps them in power?
I will be voting Third Party, I hope millions of Americans have the moral courage to not throw their vote away on either of these two candidates.