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dragonLZ (89.48)

Media is HOT (ChrisGraley this is your chance)...

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August 04, 2010 – Comments (22) | RELATED TICKERS: IM , ANO , CRIS

A little bit over a week ago, Chris told me (comment# 2 in this post) he can't wait for me to start again with my Media is HOT posts as he is anxious to start red-thumbing them again.

Well, as I promised to him, he didn't have to wait for too long. 

Portfolio of 13 Media is HOT stocks is up 5.9% today (while the market is up only 0.5%).

Not way too hot, but hot enough, I think.

Today's most notable winners are:

EMMS up 29.9% (up 110% since my initial Media is HOT post)

GTN up 10.6% (up 46% since my initial post)

SBGI up 6.7% (up 95% since my initial post)

JRN up 5.8% (up 27% since my initial post)

SBSA up 4.4% (up 102% since my initial post)

CMLS up 3.3% (up 31% since my initial post)

MNI up 1.7% (up 43% since my initial post)

MEG up 1.7% (up 23% since my initial post)

 

Good Luck Chris  :)

22 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 04, 2010 at 2:29 PM, dragonLZ (89.48) wrote:

And one more thing (I wish UltraLong would see this too as both of you hate GTN very much).

Take a look at this chart:

Doesn't it look to you like GTN is making higher highs and higher lows ever since it had those huge volume jumps back in August and September of 2009? 

Is $5.50 the next stop for GTN?

I think it is... :)  

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#2) On August 04, 2010 at 4:09 PM, dragonLZ (89.48) wrote:

As of 4 pm, the portfolio of 13 Media is HOT stocks is up 6.0% (if same amount of money invested in each stock).

EMMS up 31.2%

GTN up 11.3%

SBGI up 8.2%

JRN up 6.1%

CMLS up 4.3%

BLC up 2.3%

SBSA, SSP, MEG up 1.7%

...

(the only stock down from this portfolio was LEE: down 0.3%)

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#3) On August 04, 2010 at 4:23 PM, ChrisGraley (99.66) wrote:

Your my best leading indicator dragon. ;)

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#4) On August 04, 2010 at 4:28 PM, dragonLZ (89.48) wrote:

Anything I can do to help, Chris.  :)

p.s.

Keep an eye on "Hotels" as well. OEH was up 19% today...

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#5) On August 04, 2010 at 4:34 PM, lemoneater (84.32) wrote:

The only Media stock I like is PSO.

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#6) On August 04, 2010 at 4:55 PM, dragonLZ (89.48) wrote:

lemoneater, I've never heard of PSO before, but I'll check it out...

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#7) On August 04, 2010 at 5:35 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Since just 2006, GTN has managed to halve equity and has lost money 2 out of the last 4 full years, not to mention each of the past 5 quarters.  It seems they're set to lose money in the foreseeable future as well.  Why should an investor be interested in a company that keeps losing money?

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#8) On August 04, 2010 at 7:58 PM, dragonLZ (89.48) wrote:

Why should an investor be interested in a company that keeps losing money?

bullishbabo, GTN was also losing money a year ago when it was trading at $.50. It's up 500% since then.

It was also losing money back in October when I picked it for my Media is HOT portfolio. It's up 47% since then.

Back in October, many people said Media stocks are garbage (most notably Ultralong) with no hope to survive.

As I mentioned above, EMMS is up 112% since Oct., SBGI 98%, SBSA 97%, ...).

At this point, only one of these 13 stocks is underperforming the market (GCI with +6% return compared to market's return of +8%).

Did this answer your question?

Please let me know. I'd really like to hear what you have to say as I'm not a guy who believes in profitability.

p.s.

If you'd like, I can also give you a list of profitable companies who lost investors a bunch of money during the same time frame.

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#9) On August 04, 2010 at 8:34 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

There is a laundry list of profitable companies that went down in the same timeframe, so I'm not debating that. 

All you told me is that you picked media and that your media picks went up more than the market.  You do seem proud that they were wrong and you were right.  Still, you gave no reason why you picked these stocks.  Why did you pick them and what makes these better than other industries?

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#10) On August 04, 2010 at 8:43 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.98) wrote:

BB....

It's hopeless.. I've gone down that route before as to why he picked the stocks he did, he just doesn't know. It's voodoo economics or something. He doesn't care about profitability. If it works for him, great, but it sure doesn't work for me. Media and hotel companies are basically at the bottom of my totem pole of things to buy.

UL

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#11) On August 04, 2010 at 9:05 PM, dragonLZ (89.48) wrote:

UL, I didn't expect such harsh words from you.

I said many times I pick stocks based on what I see in charts. I wouldn't call it TA as my "chart-eyeballing" is different than traditional TA.

Basically, it has nothing to do with fundamental analysis.

It's risky, I agree with that, but it can also be very profitable.

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#12) On August 04, 2010 at 9:14 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.98) wrote:

Dragon,

Thats what I said...you don't really know why you pick what you pick, you just do. If it works for you, great, but I simply can't stomach getting behind a company like GTN which seems two heartbeats from a flatline.

UltraLong

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#13) On August 04, 2010 at 9:42 PM, dragonLZ (89.48) wrote:

What do you mean I don't really know why I pick what I pick?

I know exactly why I pick what I pick?

If a stock's chart looks good to me (based on my experience, I guess), I pick that stock.

I understand you don't like my approach, and that's fine. I don't know as much about stock as you do.

I just think my "system" has some merit, people just don't see that yet (Will they ever?). That's fine too...

p.s.

I think my MarketWhisperer portfolio will end up having quite a few 10-baggers, while some of the "fundamental guys" will be happy if they get their 100 charm... 

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#14) On August 04, 2010 at 10:10 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

If a stock's chart looks good to me (based on my experience, I guess), I pick that stock.

I guess you could've just told me "I like how GTN's chart looks."  I still think there's a method to your "chart eyeballing" that you're not explicitly stating.

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#15) On August 05, 2010 at 7:52 AM, dragonLZ (89.48) wrote:

I guess you could've just told me "I like how GTN's chart looks."

A lot of my pitches say exactly that: I like how this stock's chart looks.

When it comes to my chart eyeballing, I'm really not hiding anything. I started investing in 2002 and never tried to learn anything about fundamentals (I do know that P stands for price and E stands for earnings in the P/E ratio). Always just looked at charts. A lot of them.

So my guess is that over the years I identified a few patterns that kinda work (not always of course, but I would argue that it works more often than some fundamental mumbo jumbo).

I think chart patterns show how herd mentality works. I also think they show some of the stuff that's going on behind the scenes (that otherwise people don't see).

Watching volume is a big part of my chart eyeballing. A huge part, actually.

Besides chart eyeballing, I have a few other methods / theories:

- Early leaders continue to be leaders (continue to outperform the market).

If you take a look at my initial Huge Bull Market in Media Stocks post, you will see that all of "my" media stocks have already had exceptionally high returns up to that point.

- Big jumps in a stock's price at the beginning of a bull market (and I'm convinced one started back in March of 2009) are good. That stock will continue to outperform the market (but also expect huge flactuations in that stock's price). 

A lot of people think the opposite. They see a big jump, and they think there is no way this can continue as this stock's price is now overextended. Big mistake.

A lot of people don't know that there was a day (last year) when WNC (fundamentally a garbage stock) went up 56% (from $1 to $1.56), but are now surprised to see it at $7 - $8. TEN was up 45% in a day, DDR 44%, GNW 42%,... All 10+ baggers... (all of my media stocks had huge jumps too)...

Please keep in mind I'm not talking about stocks that go up 40% in a day, just to drop 50% a day later (I stay away from that garbage).    

- There are days on which the market gives you a list of stocks to buy (or watch, at least).

My May2110 portfolio is based on this premise.

 

I think I covered everything. I hope it helps.

Please keep in mind I'm just learning. All of this is just my theories. Time will tell if they really work (I think they do, but I feel like I have to prove it to others - that's why I started a bunch of different portolios, each covering one of my theories).

Disclaimer: Buying stocks based on the above mentioned theories is not for everyone. Common side effects include headache, nausia, frequent heartburns, and difficulty sleeping. 

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#16) On August 05, 2010 at 9:19 AM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

I didn't mean to offend you after your first response, but it would've been helpful for you to say all (or just some of) these things the first time.  I'm satisfied by your subsequent responses. 

You say earnings don't factor into the decision.  How long are the timeframes for your trades? If you were to decide to hold a stock for 2 or 3 years, would earnings matter then?

I don't mean any harm; I'm just curious. 

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#17) On August 05, 2010 at 9:34 AM, portefeuille (99.74) wrote:

a media stock you might like.

ProSiebenSat.1 Media (PSM:GR).



enlarge

 

---------------

#412) On April 01, 2009 at 8:03 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote:
PSM.DE - 1.65 (1.24 EUR) - outperform

#646) On August 01, 2009 at 10:08 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote:
PSM.DE - end outperform - 6.33 (4.44 EUR) - new rating: market perform

#771) On September 04, 2009 at 5:05 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote:
PSM.DE - end market perform - 10.27 (7.19 EUR) - no new rating

---------------

(from here)

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#18) On August 05, 2010 at 9:53 AM, portefeuille (99.74) wrote:

and it isn't even a "garbage stock" (okay, it might be one for the one that keeps seeking book value in development stage biotech stocks (just joking, hehe)) ...

Dynamic revenue and earnings growth in Q2 2010

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#19) On August 05, 2010 at 3:46 PM, dragonLZ (89.48) wrote:

BB, I wasn't offended at all, I'm actually glad you are showing interest.

You say earnings don't factor into the decision.  How long are the timeframes for your trades? If you were to decide to hold a stock for 2 or 3 years, would earnings matter then?

Unfortunately, I've never kept a stock for 2 or 3 years (unless it's a very small amount I have invested in a losing position). I guess I also don't have the stomach for holding my picks for any extended period of time. That's my biggest mistake when it comes to investing (turning into a trader instead of being an investor), and it's something I'm working on correcting.

I buy all my stocks with long term in mind (and never look at any fundamentals), but always end up selling after a few months. Hopefully that's going to change soon.

Next time I have time, I'll try to explain why I don't look at fundamentals.

p.s.

Maybe somebody first should explain to me why I should.

Wasn't WNC a fundamentally terrible stock at $1? Or CVGI at $1? Or LVS at $2? Or GTN at $.94? Or DDR at $2? Or FOE at $2? Or GNW at $2? Or CBL at $2? Or GCI at $3?... (all of them my buys at my buy prices)... 

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#20) On August 05, 2010 at 9:42 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

I'm not going to try to sway you into fundamental investing, as I'd rather agree to disagree here. 

Still, I'll explain briefly why I care about company earnings.  If you view stock as a small portion of a business, you are part owner.  As part owner in certain companies, I want those companies to make money and to make more money in the future than they make now.  Dividend payers are nice because they actually return cold hard cash to you as you sit back and let the companies earn money.

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#21) On August 06, 2010 at 8:24 AM, dragonLZ (89.48) wrote:

I, for example, want to be part owner of a company whose stock has a good chance to double or triple fast, whether that company is making money or not. I can invest less money (thus lose less if things go wrong - and things can go wrong for profitable co.'s too), and still get much higher returns (if things go my way).

In my opinion, thinking that one's money is better invested in a profitable company (vs. unprofitable one) is wrong.

Safer, yes, but not better.

Now, I do understand that some people prefer safer vs. better (better = possibility of much higher gains = slightly riskier - if done right / much riskier if done wrong).

p.s.

I know what I'm saying sounds naive (like some "get rich quick" scheme), but I think I have to clarify that I think my approach works only when one is buying at the beginning of a bull market. That's when one needs to be greedy and not pay attention to profitability. One needs to invest in what can be, not in what has been...

(Back in Nov. of 2009, I was questioning is it too late to invest in "crapy", speculative stocks. In this post from March of 2010, I said "I'm in an uncharted territory picking speculative stocks this late into the rally")...  

 

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#22) On August 07, 2010 at 1:53 AM, jhimanshu (< 20) wrote:

I appreciate the concern which is been rose. The things need to be
sorted out because it is about the individual but it can be with
everyone.

_______________________________________

Gold Rings Report this comment

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