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bluebare (60.73)

Members with the No Picks In 90 Days lucky charm

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11

October 09, 2010 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: IN , ACTI.DL , V

TMF Fun Fact --

62,688 of 71,654 CAPS Members have made no active pick in the last 90 days.

Click here to see Member No Picks count on the bottom of this page.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 09, 2010 at 10:29 PM, RJA101 (83.37) wrote:

I am one of those who have made no picks in the past 90+ days.

My CAPS picks reflect my real life portfolio, so I make choices very slowly.  I have seen nothing in the past 90 days to cause me to change my current mix.  I do have my eye on several stocks for possible purchase.

I wonder why so many others have not made picks.

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#2) On October 11, 2010 at 12:12 PM, chk999 (99.99) wrote:

My guess is that most players find out they aren't Warren Buffett and lose interest after a few months.

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#3) On October 11, 2010 at 12:26 PM, EnigmaDude (97.62) wrote:

I wonder what the influence is on CAPS star ratings from those many inactive members.  Even taking into account the decay factor, I have to believe that many picks have artificially high (or low) star ratings based on the popularity of those stocks back when those inactive members made their picks.

Question for MF:  Is there a point at which an inactive member's pick no longer influences the CAPS rating?  For example, if player A picked GE to outperform in Sept. 2006 and that player has not ended that pick, does it still count toward the 4-star rating?  I'm guessing that is where the time frame for a pick enters into it.  But then again, if they selected 5+ years, does it continue to count until ended?

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#4) On October 11, 2010 at 3:34 PM, TMFCrocoStimpy (81.74) wrote:

@EnigmaDude

Our decay model would still allow some influence from your example of a Sept 2006 pick, but it would be quite minimal at this point.

We have done multiple studies on the impact of removing inactive players (defined in many different ways, not just restricted to "no picks in n days") and found that the vast majority of those methods have actually decreased the value of the star ratings to some extent, as measured by the ability to separate the aggregate returns in the different star ratings.  Methods that have proven useful have been incorporated into our rating methodology.

 -Stimpy

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#5) On October 11, 2010 at 4:35 PM, EnigmaDude (97.62) wrote:

Thanks Stimpy.  I'm impressed that you guys (and gals) are out there scanning the blogs for comments like mine.  And I'm not surprised that you have already considered the potential impacts of the decay factor of inactive players.  This site is awesome!

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#6) On October 15, 2010 at 12:20 PM, SweetMircha (92.45) wrote:

I've been an active participant since I joined TMF and StockAdvsor. I do have concerns with ratings and the facts of the No Picks in 90 Days, whereas I assume that it has an influence on CAPS Ratings. I take all ratings with 2 Grains of Salt before I buy real life positions in the various companies which I own stock.

My CAPS relay both TMF and Real Life positions. All of my real life positions get the green checkmark of Top Stock.

Its definitely a good blog to get others opinions on the subject.

Keep On Foolin' bluebare and have a great weekend.

Mary

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#7) On October 16, 2010 at 9:53 PM, dragonLZ (89.48) wrote:

90 days is nothing. Why do you call these portfolios inactive?

Not all investors are traders... 

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