Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

Message to saunafool and Any Other Fool, Who Cannot Grasp the Current Circumstance

Recs

24

August 27, 2008 – Comments (35)

"Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son."

- DEAN WORMER

 
"the contagion has been been massive....consequences are going to be severe...it's NOT going to be okay, it will be dramatic lots of people are going to lose jobs, including lots of people here"

Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business.

"What we're worried about today is a systemic financial crisis. This is a severe, massive problem. It's going to take years to adjust," said Roubini. Home prices have already fallen 15 percent to 20 percent in some areas from their peaks during the latest housing boom, with housing starts tumbling 40 percent and sales sliding about 50 percent, he said.

If prices fall 30 percent from the peak, that would represent about $6 trillion in lost value and millions of homeowners with negative equity, he said.

Monday, January 14, 2008 | 02:30 PMInman Connect - NYC 08 - The Housing Debate

 

The current circumstance is about the loss of the reserve currency status, a severe reduction of the  standard of living, pending default on US debt, high unemployment and possible collapse of the US dollar leading to hype-inflation.

I am aligned with alstry. So I am worried about you (saunafool) and every other "Don't Worry Be Happy" type American, who has no real grasp of the current financial circumstance and is not likely to prepare for a circumstance, that he does not see or understand.

Like the drunk driver speeding down the highway, just because you believe you are "ok to drive" does not mean you are. Americans drunk on easy credit, living the dream provided by the reserve currency and are heading towards a "guard rail of reality". Like the drunk driver hoping his radio MAXED out playing “Don’t worry, be happy” is going to drown out the Police sirens following him are not going to change the circumstance any more then positive thinking.

I am not a pessimist, I am realist. I am happy, but not stupid. The sooner you admit you have a problem, the sooner you can start to rebilitate and recover. If you do not think you have a problem you cannot correct the problem. 

I am NOT happy about the circumstance the FED, Congress, Wall Street, the stupid “consumption based economy” etc.... have created.

Let’s see if we can agree on some concepts:

1. The dollar has lost 50% of its purchasing power in 8 years; it was the worst performing currency of 22 traded last year. The US dollar is a fiat currency (ie printed out of thin air with out even a published M3 to determine how much is being printed).

2. Real estate is falling at rate faster then the Great Depression. Take a look at the Case Shiller Index here and guage how much further real estate can/will fall.

3. Interest rates are artificially low and the real estate and stock market keep falling even with the FED inflation

4. US stock market has fallen 20% in an election year, despite all the FED, Treasury and Plunge Protection Team intervention.

5. The cause of the Great Depression was the easy credit created by the FED and the subsequent bubble, that popped. 

President says “Wall Street got drunk”. I guess that is a soft “doom and gloom” call by the American leadership.

sauna says

“Americans work harder and are more productive than almost any other people in the world.”

What in the world are you talking about? Are you kidding? This lie is so stupid, do people really believe that? Go to you local Wal Mart or just look at the tags on the products MADE IN CHINA, MADE IN THIALAND, MADE IN MEXICO or look at the items made in your home. Why is that the "most productive people" do not produce very much?

I will pay you $1 per item made in America and you pay me a $00.10 for every item made in Asia. Okay? Asians will work for 50-99% less then the average American, Asia is graduating far more MBAs, Engineers, scientist etc, then US by huge percentages. Ref: The World is Flat

“It is easier to start a business in the U.S. than almost anywhere else.

Again, I call BS. Where do you get this great “fact” from? Have you ever been to Asia? Do you know what the US' EPA, OSHA, etc… require? Not to mention liability insurance, minimum hourly wage etc….

“Plus, the U.S. is the only place on earth where it is OK to fail.”

Really? That is so silly, do you really believe that? Did you remember when the Japanese made crappy/cheap cars? There are a lot of patents that seem to come out of Asia. In fact, almost all of my electronics were made in Asia. Heard of Sony? Do you think they had some failures?

“Compared to Europeans (where I'm living now), Americans are hard-core survivalists. “

I lived in Europe for three years. Almost every country and culture is different. I would not say Americans are more survivalist then an average Sicilian, Swede, or average German. +40% of Americans are obese. Obesity leads to shorten lifespan, plus a lot of other health problems. Is some one that is obese really a “survivalist”? Plus, Americans have NO SAVINGS NET 0% savings and the US government borrows $1-3 billion a day. Is that a survivalist strategy? Please explain, I admit I am dumb on this issue.

Europeans are usually NET SAVERS and are NOT OBESSE (except England). Many/most European countries have trade surpluses and are not borrowing $1-3 billion a day. Of course most EU countries avoided the wealth destructing war too, with its legacy costs.

"The weaker ones will fail and the FDIC will have to pay out some money to depositors. The Fed will have to print a bunch of money to cover the losses and the dollar will stay weak.”

Of course this is likely, but how much money can the US print before everyone drops the dollar. How much longer do you think the US dollar will be the reserve currency with this tactic?

The weak dollar will stimulate exports, setting the stage for the next economic recovery.”

Really? This is a dumb rumor supported by the media. I guess Zimbabwe’s economy is going to be super strong with it uber weak currency. But I might follow Jim Rogers here and say “no, nation has ever benefited in the long term by debasing or destroying the value of its currency”.

“Meanwhile, there are thousands of inventors, engineers, software geeks, and newly unemployed starting businesses.

Sure in Asia, South America, well everywhere etc….

Lets watch some video evidence:

 

Billionaire Jim Rogers:

 

Mr Mortgage - HERE COMES THE ALT-A

 

 Peter Schiff

 

 Nation of Debt

 

 

Also there is this issue:

 

Now go see I.O.U.S.A at the theater and do not believe the hype. 

35 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 27, 2008 at 1:51 PM, TDRH (99.65) wrote:

The worst thing about it is how all the global economies are intertwined, this will not just be a US recession//depression,  it will be on a global scale.    All the economies are interconnected.

The dollar has been damaged severly, but I ask you, what will take its place?   You think we will go back to a gold standard?

Report this comment
#2) On August 27, 2008 at 2:10 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

TDRH,

Good to hear from you.  This is a global event. It is unparralled in history due to global interconectivity, I do not think it is catastropic, but severe with a longer then expect time frame to play out. I think there will be some great opportunities, as a panic may unfold on the downside.

I think people have the best opportunity to diversify out of the dollar and US market, better then any other time in American history.

Commodities have been the current safe haven out of the Central bank printing of unlimited money and credit, hense their huge run up, but commodities are in a bubble.  Commodities are finite and limited, so people/funds have been holding  commodoties instead of  currencies.

We have people, who have moved into gold, oil etc... as a replacement for holding dollars. Hense golds rise from 300 to $800 and oils rise from $10-140. People are taking their central bank unlimited money and credit and buying finite and limited commodities.  

I wrote about this on Saturday. 

Americans need to diversify their currency holdings out of the dollar. The dollar may bounce because nearly everyone is SHORT the dollar long commodities.

I recommended Sat. 10-20% of your portfolio should be in foreign currency incase their is a run on the dollar. This could happen tomorrow or 2010?. But I think it is smart and necessary to guard against a dollar collapse. Their are funds that buy currency baskets. Everbank (FDIC insured) allows diversification out of the dollar. 

I think Americans should accumulate gold coins, either in a safety deposit box or hiden where ever (2-10% of portfolio). Goldmoney, GLD, or the Perth mint can be looked at.

NO, the US will not go back to a gold standard. The politicians love the inflation and most Amercians do not realize they are being robbed by inflation. American citizens can go back to a gold standard by diversifying out of the dollar into gold or other currencies that are backed by gold or other assets. 

Report this comment
#3) On August 27, 2008 at 2:13 PM, kimonye (63.26) wrote:

YES what is going to replace the dollar????.the dollar I believe will come back stronger than ever when people realize that this is the only country ,despite its flaws,that is  most stable in the world.Plus noboby can make us pay by force or threat.

Report this comment
#4) On August 27, 2008 at 2:13 PM, alstry (34.92) wrote:

Actually, I think Roubini and others are light when the say a 30% reduction in home values represents a $6 Trillion dollar loss of wealth.  The reason is that the number thrown around is at peak America's equity in its homes was around $20 Trillion.  But once you factor leverage, the gross value of America's homes was likely closer to $35 Trillion.

Thus, a 30% reduction in home values is close to a $10 Trillion dollar loss of wealth....But what is $4 Trillion between friends.

Report this comment
#5) On August 27, 2008 at 2:15 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.35) wrote:

Great post, Ares. Spot on.

Report this comment
#6) On August 27, 2008 at 2:26 PM, LordZ wrote:

If theres going to be a severe break down, buying gold coins right now seems stupid, ARES are you for or against commodity stocks now ? oil ? gold ? iron ? miners ?

I've been riding out the storm, sort of surfing the waves trying to stay ahead and not get wiped out.

I need much bigger waves.

If you think its really going to get bad ? you had better buy a shotgun and plenty of shells before you buy that gold coin. You had better buy non perishable food items before you buy that gold coin.

You can't eat, well you can, but gold coins arent very tastey nor nutritious.

In the meantime live it up, drink it up, for tommorrow may never come and when it does, it might not look like the home coming queen you thought you went home with ?

A home is a home ALstry, and unless you don't fully own it, say you have it mortgaged well you really owned a debt.

Most smart people own homes to live and not to invest in, so that if they go up or down, it really isnt as important as you should have bought it to live in and not as some investment.

 

 

Report this comment
#7) On August 27, 2008 at 2:31 PM, dinodelaurentis (74.54) wrote:

     try one step further : global depression. hmmm, who will the world blame? (focus...focus) you don't think they'll blame the US do you? guilty or not, extreme situations lead to extreme behaviour. god forbid, there are folks in this world who already hate america if not western civilization and are encouraging violent action against us. forget al quieda, try to think of what HUNGRY people will think or do. people might quietly starve out of apathy but watching their children die has a way of REALLY upsetting them! or desparate goverments that want control and are afraid of what might happen if they lose it. Any Goverment... one last thought: increased population + dwindeling resources = war for remaining resources. of course, you could always count on Man's noble nature...  or hope for a lesser degree of severity in the economic collapse. i don;t know about you Fools, but in my experience, my toast frequently falls jelly side down. is war coming? heck, war maybe here. given that, now what?

Report this comment
#8) On August 27, 2008 at 2:32 PM, WillSurfForFood (80.06) wrote:

"Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son."

- DEAN WORMER

 

At the end of the movie didn't Dean Wormer get punk'd and I forgot what happened to Flounder. But the moral is it is better to be fat drunk and stupid than an arrogant bastard.

 Yes I believe we are in a recession and it will likely get worse. But honestly if I didn't have an internet connection I wouldn't know anything about it. I don't know anyone that has lost their job lately, none of my friends have lost homes to foreclosure. The number of homeless aren't increasing. People seem like they are doing alright.  I was in Circuit City a few months ago and it was so busy I couldn't get anyone to help me. Not usually a big deal but I was with my 1 1/2 year old and was seriously thinking about letting him loose in the store until someone noticed him destroying their merchandise.

 

Report this comment
#9) On August 27, 2008 at 2:36 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

kimonye,

You share the same illusion that the Romans, Ottomans, Third Riech, Soviets and every other failed empire shared. Most ever sees the down fall coming, not even the US.

"most stable in the world."

Go watch IOUSA at the theater then check back. Also watch the first video. Of course the historical fact that this is not the US' first currency and the US has confiscated the citizens gold, forbidden the ownership of gold by citizens, eliminated the gold standard. Does not allow you to take out of $10k out of the US. 

I say to your response is "not worth a continential" 

"Plus noboby can make us pay by force or threat."

The US import alsmost of its oil and consumer based products. What your plan when WalMart's shelves are empty except for Wrigleys Chewing gum and....

No one could make the Soviets either, but collapse they did and so did the currency.

alstry,

I think unfortunately, Roubini may have understated the size and scope of the calamity, in order to avoid a panic and striking to much fear. He was a a BEar in 2006 and probably suffered a lot of ridicule and toned it down.

FOR THE RECORD: I DO NOT WANT OR HOPE FOR A PAINC. In fact, I want a bull market, strong dollar, real estate recovery, etc. But "I am calling the cards as I see them". You cannot spend, over borrow, over eat, under save your way into prosperity.

TMFSinchiruna,

Thank you 

 

 

Report this comment
#10) On August 27, 2008 at 2:45 PM, alstry (34.92) wrote:

Lordy,

You are right, a home is a home.

But a mortgage is a mortgage and banks and pension funds own trillions of dollars worth of them supporting your deposits and pension.

If the bank is broke.....so are you.

Report this comment
#11) On August 27, 2008 at 2:47 PM, dinodelaurentis (74.54) wrote:

 kudos to Aresfinancial: you write well thought out posts that i've started saving to share with the people i care about. nice videos as well...  an excellent Fool...

Report this comment
#12) On August 27, 2008 at 2:58 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

LordZ

Commodities are in a bubble. They have corrected some. I would much rather own a commodity producing stock then some "mark to make believe" retailer, bank, financial etc....

The next bubble if they can get it going will likely be infustructur e building and alternative energy. Take a look at STP or ORA.

"buying gold coins right now seems stupid"

Gold coins are like car insurance, you have it, but never want to use it and feel like you are getting ripped off paying the premium. I will write about it some time later. 2 - 30% of your portfolio. Yes, gold and commodities will go down in a recession.

On commodities, a recession will bring them down with reduced demand. A WAR MAY SEND OIL ($300-400 BBL) AND GOLD PARABOLIC ($5k per ounce?) 


"I've been riding out the storm, sort of surfing the waves trying to stay ahead and not get wiped out."

I recommend starting your own business, the US market is volitile, volitity is usually the sign of a peak. I expect the US market will continue to fall with housing. 


"If you think its really going to get bad ? you had better buy a shotgun and plenty of shells before you buy that gold coin. You had better buy non perishable food items before you buy that gold coin."

I have no idea how this will play out. It is beyind anything we have seen in my life time. I wrote:

Systemic Risk Investment / Insurance; A buy list outside of Stocks in Feb 08

I do not think this will be catastropic, but there is the risk, of a very severe systemic crisis. People can make their own minds up. I do not think there will be a break down in the division of labor and starvation, just an erosion of wealth. 

"In the meantime live it up, drink it up, for tommorrow may never come and when it does, it might not look like the home coming queen you thought you went home with ?"

We can agree on that, no doubt, we are still living in the best of times, even with a financial correction. People will be tighten their belts and living more responsibly. It is inevitiable. 

Report this comment
#13) On August 27, 2008 at 3:01 PM, Option1307 (29.65) wrote:

Wow, thanks for the uplifting thoughts team...I might just sing my self to sleep now...

Unfortunately I ultimately agree with you Ares/etc. You may be predicting doom and gloom, and no one likes to hear a negative person. But the reality is that we are in an incredible tough situation. This is like the perfect storm for the economy. I believe the US could handle any of these issues separately; however, they are now all interrelated and converging at basically the same time. I want a reversal of these crappy trends as much as anybosy; yet I'm not naive enough to assume they are just going to smoothly "go away". We will get through this yes, but it is likely going to be a long haul and very difficult for a lot of people.

As always, I appreciate your thoughts/knowledge/insights, it really helps us rookies learn  and understand (feel incredibly dumb as well).

Report this comment
#14) On August 27, 2008 at 3:06 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

dinodelaurentis,

Thank you. I hope it is helpful. I will again point out Happiness is relative to the person. Everyone born with a US passport and is not born the treeman, should be thanking the Lord daily, reguardless of this financial crisis. (Google treeman if you want to be terrified/thankful http://abcnews.go.com/Primetime/popup?id=5536783&contentIndex=1&start=false&page=)

I strongly recommend the book, Man's Search for Meaning, for anyone who is scared or depressed.  The author Victor Frankle discussion will give you wisdom for tough times.

Report this comment
#15) On August 27, 2008 at 3:06 PM, greenwave3 (49.08) wrote:

Nice post, a little too doom and gloom for me though. If you could just get wall street to agree with you, I'd be picking up even better bargains...

Report this comment
#16) On August 27, 2008 at 3:12 PM, TMFKopp (98.25) wrote:

Ares... there is so much to take issue with here I don't even know where to start. But let me just take one section -- your repsonse to “Americans work harder and are more productive than almost any other people in the world.”

You said:

What in the world are you talking about? Are you kidding? This lie is so stupid, do people really believe that? Go to you local Wal Mart or just look at the tags on the products MADE IN CHINA, MADE IN THIALAND, MADE IN MEXICO or look at the items made in your home. Why is that the "most productive people" do not produce very much?

While the initial statement may not have been perfectly worded your response is just silly. To say that we're losing out because the $2 stuffed animal I bought for my dog at Wal-Mart was made in China is way off base. I'd say it's a sign of economic progress that we've offloaded the low-value-add jobs to other countries while keeping the knowledge- and high-value-add jobs here. Sure China may be graduating a lot of MBAs and engineers, but who do you think they're working for?

Think about it this way: an Apple iPod is conceived and designed in the US by a US company and then overseas third parties are contracted to build the innards and the cheap plastic case to precise standards. Who do you think is pocketing the lion's share of the profit there? 

You can call me an unbridled optimist here, but I think we need to be very wary of crying depression here. At the peak of any bull run (think Dow 40,000) and the trough of any bear squeeze there're going to be plenty of people who will fall victim to recency bias and predict that currnet conditions will hold into the forseeable future. 

As WillSurfForFood pointed out, we're not looking at massive unemployment and bread lines here. If anything we're looking at the typical media and analyst amplification of potential outcomes. After all, a moderate (not so good and not so bad) outcome doesn't sell papers and it sure wouldn't get Nouriel Roubini print mentions all over the place.

Matt 

Report this comment
#17) On August 27, 2008 at 3:14 PM, TMFKopp (98.25) wrote:

Ares... there is so much to take issue with here I don't even know where to start. But let me just take one section -- your repsonse to “Americans work harder and are more productive than almost any other people in the world.”

You said:

What in the world are you talking about? Are you kidding? This lie is so stupid, do people really believe that? Go to you local Wal Mart or just look at the tags on the products MADE IN CHINA, MADE IN THIALAND, MADE IN MEXICO or look at the items made in your home. Why is that the "most productive people" do not produce very much?

While the initial statement may not have been perfectly worded your response is just silly. To say that we're losing out because the $2 stuffed animal I bought for my dog at Wal-Mart was made in China is way off base. I'd say it's a sign of economic progress that we've offloaded the low-value-add jobs to other countries while keeping the knowledge- and high-value-add jobs here. Sure China may be graduating a lot of MBAs and engineers, but who do you think they're working for?

Think about it this way: an Apple iPod is conceived and designed in the US by a US company and then overseas third parties are contracted to build the innards and the cheap plastic case to precise standards. Who do you think is pocketing the lion's share of the profit there? 

You can call me an unbridled optimist here, but I think we need to be very wary of crying depression here. At the peak of any bull run (think Dow 40,000) and the trough of any bear squeeze there're going to be plenty of people who will fall victim to recency bias and predict that currnet conditions will hold into the forseeable future. 

As WillSurfForFood pointed out, we're not looking at massive unemployment and bread lines here. If anything we're looking at the typical media and analyst amplification of potential outcomes. After all, a moderate (not so good and not so bad) outcome doesn't sell papers and it sure wouldn't get Nouriel Roubini print mentions all over the place.

Matt 

Report this comment
#18) On August 27, 2008 at 3:14 PM, eldemonio (98.81) wrote:

The fatty Americans are like squirrels getting ready for winter.  We fatsos are survivalists.

Report this comment
#19) On August 27, 2008 at 3:18 PM, motleyanimal (87.23) wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKYhk9Qui2g

Report this comment
#20) On August 27, 2008 at 3:20 PM, zygnoda (27.08) wrote:

We fatsos are survivalists. 

Lol

 

Report this comment
#21) On August 27, 2008 at 3:29 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

greenwave3,

It is not about "doom and gloom" to me. It is about recognizing the circumstance and making the proper  investment choices. I prefer a bull market etc....

"If you could just get wall street to agree with you, I'd be picking up even better bargains..."

I think you will definately be able to buy some companies a lot cheaper. Just wait and see. Report this comment
#22) On August 27, 2008 at 3:43 PM, dinodelaurentis (74.54) wrote:

 Not scared or depressed, thank the stars!! it seems that denile isn't just a river in egypt... it's always easier to reject the obvious than to stir yourself to action. here's a book from my heart to all the Fools: "The Tao of Pooh". all i need is a little honey for my tummy. Effortless Grace in my daily existence is my goal...

Report this comment
#23) On August 27, 2008 at 4:10 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

eldemonio,

Funny.

The Arabian women have a saying, "a man with out a stomach is not worth much". Hence the guys in the M.E. have no issue with some big bellies, it just shows they are wealthy men of leisure. That is how I understood it anyways.... 

 TMFKopp, 

"To say that we're losing out because the $2 stuffed animal I bought for my dog at Wal-Mart was made in China is way off base."

 

Annul a trade deficit is beyond $2 stuffed animals. We just sold Budwieser, Dubai tried to buy all the East Coast ports, Rockfellor Center, Sears Tower, Chrysler Building etc... As Buffett says we are like the rich farm kid, who is selling the farm land in order to party. At some point there will be no more farm land  to sell and the party will be over.

 "I'd say it's a sign of economic progress that we've offloaded the low-value-add jobs to other countries while keeping the knowledge- and high-value-add jobs here." 

This is not true, at all. Have you seen all the migrant workers  in the US? The US has the worlds largest prision population. No one is even close to the percentage of the US incarcerated, not even the communist. I think we have plenty people here, who could do the work as apposed to costing $20-40k a year to keep in prision.


 I would say that is insane. No nation survives mass migration. Ask the Serbians Romans or any native American   

Sure China may be graduating a lot of MBAs and engineers, but who do you think they're working for? 

They work for Chinesse government it is a Communist contry. They can keep part of their earnings. American manufactuing will transfer the manufacturing and technology, then China will be have no further use for the alliance. Just wait and see.

 Who do you think is pocketing the lion's share of the profit there? 

Steve Jobs with his options contracts. :)  

"we need to be very wary of crying depression here."

At the Not my call, there could be hyper inflation and a greater war etc....  

"we're not looking at massive unemployment and bread lines here."

There are no bread lines becasue people recieve subsidies by mail. So you have no idea, who is on the dole, and who is not. I heard there are 45 million receiving US gov subsidize.  

"If anything we're looking at the typical media and analyst amplification of potential outcomes. After all, a moderate (not so good and not so bad) outcome doesn't sell papers and it sure wouldn't get Nouriel Roubini print mentions all over the place.

Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School. He is a very famous academic in a very famous school. He DOES NOT HAVE a book to sell. I would wager he cares more about his reputation and integrity then a paid shill. I bet Roubin knows what he is talking about, especially since he has been proven mostly right already.

Fear sells no doubt. But you know what sells advertizing space in a "consumption  based economy", which relies on the wealth effect. Good news motivated shoppers, so the bad economic news is usually hiden. Do you think this will motivate someone to call Centrury 21 or buy a car or go to the mall or Las Vegas?

 

I report, you decide:  

 

 

Report this comment
#24) On August 27, 2008 at 5:01 PM, TMFKopp (98.25) wrote:

I report, you decide: 

Come on, who are you kidding? The Austrians are a group that has been crying wolf to the same tune for decades. You're going to need to do better than Peter Schiff to convince me. 

Report this comment
#25) On August 27, 2008 at 5:24 PM, TMFKopp (98.25) wrote:

I report, you decide: 

Come on, who are you kidding? The Austrians are a group that has been crying wolf to the same tune for decades. You're going to need to do better than Peter Schiff to convince me. 

Report this comment
#26) On August 27, 2008 at 5:30 PM, TMFKopp (98.25) wrote:

I report, you decide: 

Come on, who are you kidding? The Austrians are a group that has been crying wolf to the same tune for decades. You're going to need to do better than Peter Schiff to convince me. 

Report this comment
#27) On August 27, 2008 at 5:52 PM, TMFKopp (98.25) wrote:

ok, so I feel strongly about the Austrians, but not that strongly... :)

Report this comment
#28) On August 27, 2008 at 6:17 PM, LordZ wrote:

DAMN TMFKOPP just comment one time, not 2 times, and especially not 3 times the same stuff. stop refreshing and reposting the same comment over and over again.

ARES guess what your boy Crammer is recommending people buy retail LOL some Jcrew company ?

Than he goes on to say that traffic and sales are horrible.

Sometimes caps won't show you  your post right away, so if you page back and reclick it you'll automatically double post.

So just go out on faith that when you click to post and you don't see that notorious error, please realize that your comment will get posted just as soon as caps gets around to it.

LORD Z

 

Report this comment
#29) On August 27, 2008 at 8:02 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

TMFKopp,

"The Austrians are a group that has been crying wolf to the same tune for decades. You're going to need to do better than Peter Schiff to convince me. "

1. Second video is Jim Rogers first to bring attention to the commodity bull in 2000.

2. You are right on the Austrians. Here is Ron Paul in 2002 talking about Russia / Georgia:

 

John Bogle here:

 

Soros

Peter Schiff vs Paid Schill 

Jim Rogers "The dollar is going to loose it's status as the world's reserve currency" 25Feb0, Bloomberg

Marc Faber

 

 

Report this comment
#30) On August 27, 2008 at 8:06 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

David Tice

 

Report this comment
#31) On August 27, 2008 at 10:11 PM, jahbu (88.67) wrote:

The current circumstance is about the loss of the reserve currency status, a severe reduction of the  standard of living, pending default on US debt, high unemployment and possible collapse of the US dollar leading to hype-inflation.

Wow Ares, you changed your tune!  As I have debated with you for months, this is INFLATIONARY!

Only another bubble(inflationary) that actually adds benefits to our society can save this situation.  We have to build and invent our way out of this mess.  Unless the people(Petey Peterson and the CFR) who own the beloved IOUSA decided to screw the whole USA and slam interest rates up to 18% causing the next GREAT Depression.

Some people want this to happen, but it would be a disaster.  Farmers would go broke, and new business would have no way of getting financed.   We would have riots and everything else. 

The only way out, the only hope is an infrastructure, green technology bubble.  All we can do is cross our fingers and hope it works. 

That is why IMHO Obama would be a better president choice than McInsane. McInsane bubble would be in military/surveilence.   I am sick of war on terror.  At least the War on Global Warming would have the benefit of a cleaner earth.

Anyways I am voting Ron Paul, but with the current situation I wouldn't leave the country if Obamy becomes pres.

Report this comment
#32) On August 28, 2008 at 1:34 AM, pjani06 (28.97) wrote:

kudos, writing in Ron Paul for president

the only one pointing the finger at the central banking system feeding a massive incentive machine for all politicians to spend away our country's wealth at the expense of its citizens. 

Report this comment
#33) On August 28, 2008 at 1:47 AM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Report this comment
#34) On August 28, 2008 at 3:50 AM, jester112358 (28.69) wrote:

Just wanted to put some perspective on the so-called loss of 30% of housing value and "wealth".  This is a paper loss after a paper gain of over 80% over the last decade.  Over, 40% of all Americans have no mortgage on their house-I'm one of them.  I could care less about the current housing prices in my area-I need a place to live.  The same applies to equity values-if I sell them then what will I do with the profits?  Likely plow them right back into other equities.  So, if I sell my house when prices are low, I get to buy when prices are low and vice versa.   So, this loss of "wealth" is rather illusory and psychological in nature.  It hits only people who purchased in the 2004-2006 period with little or no colleratal.  The same reasoning applies to the fools who claim the commodities "bubble" has burst.  Look at the chart of any commodity over the last decade.  Its a consistent trend upward.  I've been invested in commodity and commodity stocks since 2005-I haven't lost a dime of my original investments.  I have no intention of selling now either-what would I buy?   Housing, on the other hand, is never a good long term investment, it historically follows the rate of inflation.  Like abstract art, one needs to select a realistic time frame or distant viewpoint before making macroeconomic conclusions-and this time frame isn't a few months!

 The real problem for this country as so many of you have noted is that we aren't producing real things any more-just a lot of paper pushing.   Not enough engineers, too many lawyers.   The productivity and work ethic of other countries such a China is so much greater.  However, their lack of democratic government, property rights,  a strong legal system etc. doom them to eventual failure.  

Report this comment
#35) On August 28, 2008 at 1:27 PM, abitare (31.77) wrote:

jahbu, 

this is INFLATIONARY!" 

The war is inflationiary. The recession is deflationiary. The war and its expansion will likely continue to enrich Wall Street and DC. It will likely reignite the commodity bubble and dollar fall.   

"Only another bubble(inflationary) that actually adds benefits to our society can save this situation."   

NO, only savings and entrepeniunship can create wealth. the bubbles are wealth destroyers for most and a malinvestment.
 Interest rates are going up reguardless the government. C, LEH, MER, GM etc are borrowing at +7- XX%. 

"The only way out, the only hope is an infrastructure, green technology bubble.   " 

THIS IS MADNESS. The US needs a recession to cleans the system of the stupidity and leverage. Again,  wealth is built from savings and entrepenuership. Not bubble gambling.
 

" I am sick of war on terror.  At least the War on Global Warming would have the benefit of a cleaner earth." 

Both government programs are a stupid waste. The US government needs to get out of the bubble blowing business. PERIOD. Let the capitial and money flow where it can be invested EFFICIENTLY, instead of bubble chasing. How about a reasonably priced electric car? Example:

Electric car vs Ferrari  

 

Look what can happen if the governments stop the BS intervention into the market by bubble blowing.   

"Anyways I am voting Ron Paul, but with the current situation I wouldn't leave the country if Obamy becomes pres." 

I am aligned here. Ron Paul on Obama:  

 

FYI - the Onion (humor)

Recession-Plagued Nation Demands New Bubble To Invest In

July 14, 2008 | Issue 44•29

 

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement