Message to saunafool and Any Other Fool, Who Cannot Grasp the Current Circumstance
"Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son."
- DEAN WORMER
"the contagion has been been massive....consequences are going to be severe...it's NOT going to be okay, it will be dramatic lots of people are going to lose jobs, including lots of people here"
Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business.
"What we're worried about today is a systemic financial crisis. This is a severe, massive problem. It's going to take years to adjust," said Roubini. Home prices have already fallen 15 percent to 20 percent in some areas from their peaks during the latest housing boom, with housing starts tumbling 40 percent and sales sliding about 50 percent, he said.
If prices fall 30 percent from the peak, that would represent about $6 trillion in lost value and millions of homeowners with negative equity, he said.Monday, January 14, 2008 | 02:30 PMInman Connect - NYC 08 - The Housing Debate
The current circumstance is about the loss of the reserve currency status, a severe reduction of the standard of living, pending default on US debt, high unemployment and possible collapse of the US dollar leading to hype-inflation.
I am aligned with alstry. So I am worried about you (saunafool) and every other "Don't Worry Be Happy" type American, who has no real grasp of the current financial circumstance and is not likely to prepare for a circumstance, that he does not see or understand.
Like the drunk driver speeding down the highway, just because you believe you are "ok to drive" does not mean you are. Americans drunk on easy credit, living the dream provided by the reserve currency and are heading towards a "guard rail of reality". Like the drunk driver hoping his radio MAXED out playing “Don’t worry, be happy” is going to drown out the Police sirens following him are not going to change the circumstance any more then positive thinking.
I am not a pessimist, I am realist. I am happy, but not stupid. The sooner you admit you have a problem, the sooner you can start to rebilitate and recover. If you do not think you have a problem you cannot correct the problem.
I am NOT happy about the circumstance the FED, Congress, Wall Street, the stupid “consumption based economy” etc.... have created.
Let’s see if we can agree on some concepts:
1. The dollar has lost 50% of its purchasing power in 8 years; it was the worst performing currency of 22 traded last year. The US dollar is a fiat currency (ie printed out of thin air with out even a published M3 to determine how much is being printed).
2. Real estate is falling at rate faster then the Great Depression. Take a look at the Case Shiller Index here and guage how much further real estate can/will fall.
3. Interest rates are artificially low and the real estate and stock market keep falling even with the FED inflation
4. US stock market has fallen 20% in an election year, despite all the FED, Treasury and Plunge Protection Team intervention.
5. The cause of the Great Depression was the easy credit created by the FED and the subsequent bubble, that popped.
President says “Wall Street got drunk”. I guess that is a soft “doom and gloom” call by the American leadership.
“Americans work harder and are more productive than almost any other people in the world.”
What in the world are you talking about? Are you kidding? This lie is so stupid, do people really believe that? Go to you local Wal Mart or just look at the tags on the products MADE IN CHINA, MADE IN THIALAND, MADE IN MEXICO or look at the items made in your home. Why is that the "most productive people" do not produce very much?
I will pay you $1 per item made in America and you pay me a $00.10 for every item made in Asia. Okay? Asians will work for 50-99% less then the average American, Asia is graduating far more MBAs, Engineers, scientist etc, then US by huge percentages. Ref: The World is Flat
“It is easier to start a business in the U.S. than almost anywhere else. “
Again, I call BS. Where do you get this great “fact” from? Have you ever been to Asia? Do you know what the US' EPA, OSHA, etc… require? Not to mention liability insurance, minimum hourly wage etc….
“Plus, the U.S. is the only place on earth where it is OK to fail.”
Really? That is so silly, do you really believe that? Did you remember when the Japanese made crappy/cheap cars? There are a lot of patents that seem to come out of Asia. In fact, almost all of my electronics were made in Asia. Heard of Sony? Do you think they had some failures?
“Compared to Europeans (where I'm living now), Americans are hard-core survivalists. “
I lived in Europe for three years. Almost every country and culture is different. I would not say Americans are more survivalist then an average Sicilian, Swede, or average German. +40% of Americans are obese. Obesity leads to shorten lifespan, plus a lot of other health problems. Is some one that is obese really a “survivalist”? Plus, Americans have NO SAVINGS NET 0% savings and the US government borrows $1-3 billion a day. Is that a survivalist strategy? Please explain, I admit I am dumb on this issue.
Europeans are usually NET SAVERS and are NOT OBESSE (except England). Many/most European countries have trade surpluses and are not borrowing $1-3 billion a day. Of course most EU countries avoided the wealth destructing war too, with its legacy costs.
"The weaker ones will fail and the FDIC will have to pay out some money to depositors. The Fed will have to print a bunch of money to cover the losses and the dollar will stay weak.”
Of course this is likely, but how much money can the US print before everyone drops the dollar. How much longer do you think the US dollar will be the reserve currency with this tactic?
“ The weak dollar will stimulate exports, setting the stage for the next economic recovery.”
Really? This is a dumb rumor supported by the media. I guess Zimbabwe’s economy is going to be super strong with it uber weak currency. But I might follow Jim Rogers here and say “no, nation has ever benefited in the long term by debasing or destroying the value of its currency”.
“Meanwhile, there are thousands of inventors, engineers, software geeks, and newly unemployed starting businesses.”
Sure in Asia, South America, well everywhere etc….
Lets watch some video evidence:
Billionaire Jim Rogers:
Mr Mortgage - HERE COMES THE ALT-A
Nation of Debt
Also there is this issue:
Now go see I.O.U.S.A at the theater and do not believe the hype.