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Imsprkfool99 (37.02)

Micron Technology (MU)

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May 29, 2014 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: MU , SNDK.DL , INTC

 Vet67to82 posted the following comment on a Seeking Alpha article:

"First, taking Samsung as an example, is producing 3D, 24 layers, going into its SSDs. 3D takes up more room per wafer start, so, even if you could attain 100 percent satisfactory yield, you will get FEWER chips per wafer.

Second, EACH 3D wafer start requires MORE process steps to finished wafer stage, that means the increased time, from wafer start to finish, will result in FEWER finished wafers, and, ergo, FEWER chips, per year.

Samsung does have a new fab coming online in 2015, no doubt to produce MORE 3D wafers to make up for the supply lost thru the above process FACTS.

Third, since, based on chip manufacturers customers' own product life cycles, not all customers will want to transition to 3D, even when it becomes the de facto standard, there will STILL be a healthy market for a shrinking supply of planar DRAM and NAND.

So, the supply of planar DRAM and NAND is shrinking, and will continue to shrink, as machines, and lines are re-tasked to 3D production. AND, 3D production itself produces fewer chips, meaning NO SUPPLY excess to be found anywhere, any time soon.

Lastly, IMHO, Micron Tech (MU) is in the best economic position to transfer planar DRAM NAND machinery to Elpida, in exchange for the CASH to finance its transition to 3D ... ALL without the pressing need to build a new fab, unlike Micron's competition which will find itself struggling under the time and BILLIONS it will cost to build new fabs just to make up LOST supply.

I am expecting Elpida to report +$3 billion in CASH by the time Micron reports Q4 2014, and Micron to report corporate cash as $6.5 to 7.5 billion, reduced debt, and POSITIVE Free Cash Flow, et cetera.

Advantage Micron. "

I have to agree. All those arguing chip supplies will suddenly appear to undermine planar DRAM, NAND, and NOR chip prices clearly have no clue on what it takes to manufacture 3D wafers and chips. Which begs the question as to why people are not doing their own homework, or they'd know better than to listen to those who clearly do not?!

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 30, 2014 at 10:15 AM, foundone2 (< 20) wrote:

HP are forcasting flash for data archiving, opening up a new market for the likes of Micron http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/30/hp_envisaging_archiving_on_flash/

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#2) On June 08, 2014 at 12:30 AM, Imsprkfool99 (37.02) wrote:

Thanx foundone2.  Nice link.  I agree with HPQ's vision. 

 As to Micron Tech (MU) I would strongly suggest everyone invested, or thinking of investing, in MU check out this conference call, webcast, and slides (downloadable PDF format): 

  http://investors.micron.com/events.cfm

   I think it supports where I am certain Q3'14 and Q4'14 are heading.

 

Micron's Third Quarter 2014 Financial Call
Jun 23, 2014 at 2:30 PM MT (4:30 PM ET)

Micron's previous earnings reports:

Q2 2014 +85c on 4/3/14
Q1 2014 +77c on 1/7/14

Q42013 +20c on 10/10/13
Q3 2013 +4c on 6/19/13
Q2 2013 -28c on 3/21/13
Q1 2013 -27c on 12/20/12

Q4 2012 -24c on 9/27/12
Q3 2013 -32c on 6/20/12
 

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#3) On June 08, 2014 at 10:48 PM, Imsprkfool99 (37.02) wrote:

If you listen to the above webcast, you'll hear Mr. Ivan Donaldson, Director of Investor Relations, repeatedly state that 3D will produce fewer wafers, just like Vet has been saying.   Wow!  Thanks to 3D, chip supplies will be lower, if gadget demand is stable to up, allocation (rationing) has to force prices up.   

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#4) On September 24, 2014 at 4:14 PM, xilog (< 20) wrote:

The whole point of 3D is to increase bit density.

That the number of wafers is reduced tells you nothing until you also know what is happening to bit density.

If you had the same bit density per layer and 32 layers, then you would have to lose 95% of your wafers to end up with fewer bits (per fab).

Of course you don't use the same density per layer as in planar, but even if the density is (say) 1/8th and you get half as many wafers, 32 layers gives you 32/(8*2) which is twice as many bits, and 128 layers gives you eight times as many bits.

So, anyone know the real story about what 3D does to bit supply?

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