March 25, 2008
– Comments (9)
I suspect there's another on the way.
But I've been buying anyway. You?
Nope, I did not miss the bottom, I opened anew Caps to track my short term, 1 month plays, iATWD, to see how I am doing vs the Cap world, and it is nice for me. Look for April rally and massive crash in MAy. Than look for sideways or down trading until september, and I think the down market should be finished by than.
Long oil, gold, gas. Short the market. Earnings coming in April, estimates will be downsized.
Japanesse market decline for 18 years. From the US 1929 crash the US market did not recover until 1954 at one point in the 1930s the US market fell to 1880s levels.
People, who think the market is already recovering need to cut back on the Red Bulls and vodkas or cocaine if you work for WallStreet.
It hasn't bottomed yet.
I'm not buying yet, either.
I have overall 4 set of stocks in my portfolio...
(1) Stocks down 40% or so but IMO good cos - I am holding them (VLCM, LOOP, PRAA)(2) Stocks I have been buying through the bottom - some up, some down - again, IMO good cos - I am holding them (CROX, BID, AXP)(3) Stocks that look shaky but I have some gains on them - I have been selling them slowly (VIA-B, GLW)(4) Stocks that I bought when knew no better (OPMR, SCSS) and have been sluaghtered by 80% or so - I will hold them as there isn't much downside left and even if there is, I don't mind losing another 10-20%(5) Stocks I have no intention of selling unless the business landscape changs a lot (AAPL, ADSK, HOG, GBX, ETGIX, DOW< OYOG)
I already sold the ones I had doubled or tripled (CHL, EXM, CTRP, KONG)
oh, and yuor juts Pumpor // shirt!!! ;-)
Re. ATWDLimited, so we should listen to a 16 year old kid who made the super bullish case for gold with outdated charts shortly before it corrected... And of course he didn't miss the bottom... oh well...
Personally I am buying or selling stocks regardless of the general market. Not all stocks/sectors bottom out or top out at the same time.
Abitare, it is just ridiculous to compare today's stock market with 1929 or the Japanese bubble, IMHO!
BTW, I like it that everybody is so bearish... ;-)
I fell ike I'm in a lose-lose situation. I have no clue where to put my money honestly:
Gold/commodities: No idea why I would invest in commodities, especially in gold. To me commodities are the closest thing you can get to an efficient market, and in this case, it's about as good as rolling a dice. The only commodity I would feel like buying is corn, and as soon as someone in washington figures out that ethanol is a joke, the price of corn will fall like a rock.
Stocks: I believe stocks are in for a debacle. Why would I invest if I think all hell will break lose? I'm still holding some stocks in healthcare and consumer staples. I'm definitely keeping an eye on financials. I'll start snapping shares when it starts to hurt for real (when bernanke cries on national tv...)
Cash: Cash is nice, but inflation will eat part of it. Luckily, here in the frozen north, inflation isn't as bad as in Bushland. I'll definitely keep some cash.
Bonds: Bought some bonds in january. So far my best investment this year. But with lower interest rate, inflation will catch up with bonds yield. And this was just a short-term play anyway, the goal is to move the money somewhere at some later time.
Debt: I'll probably make additionnal payments on my mortgage with whatever I was gonna invest. With interest rates back down below 5% it's not that great an investment either, but 4.5% risk-free, with a possibility that it'll rise in the future isn't too bad.
"Abitare, it is just ridiculous to compare today's stock market with 1929 or the Japanese bubble, IMHO!"
Agreed. It's way, way, way worse right here right now than it ever was in 1929 or 1990.