Missed Mark by $10 Trillion. Keep Job.
In his review of bad football predictions, Gregg Easterbrook veers into economics with this hilarious tidbit:
In January 2000, the Congressional Budget Office projected a federal surplus of $4.3 trillion for the decade ending in 2010. Actual was a deficit of about $6 trillion. Hey, they were off by only $10 trillion!
I found the original CBO report here. I'm sure there's more fun tidbits in it for those who have the time.
This is why I refer to econometricians as nothing more than highly trained witch doctors. When compared to real economists, it's like Mike Tyson fighting an infant. It's just not fair.
David in Qatar