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portefeuille (99.44)

MNTA

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January 25, 2011 – Comments (6)

I think it might be a good idea to buy a few MNTA shares today. MNTA shares are currently one of the larger positions of my "fund" (see here). There are currently 13800 MNTA shares in the fund with break-even of around 15.45 USD.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 25, 2011 at 8:59 PM, zzlangerhans (99.74) wrote:

I know you like to be obscure, but doesn't today's news indicate a high risk of Teva competition for the generic lovenox market later in the year? When the other shoe drops, won't it land directly on Momenta's head? I'm only bringing this up because you usually turn out to be right.

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#2) On January 25, 2011 at 11:08 PM, Momentum21 (96.83) wrote:

they seem to run a tight ship over there...

Trying to review the numbers to figure out a worst case scenario on revenue if TEVA came into the mix right away.

Does $60MM per quarter go immediately down to $15MM? Expectation for q4 2011 already considers Teva I think...

Earnings on Feb 7. Should be pretty good (could be huge)...this along with any holdup for Teva could mean a serious pop. Give me another 10% or so over the next 7 days and my mouse gets busy... : )

What am I missing? Teva has been a given all along...we are talking about timing now, right? 

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#3) On January 25, 2011 at 11:21 PM, Momentum21 (96.83) wrote:

I see...once Teva comes in the terms of the deal change to a royalty from a profit share. From here

Need to figure out what that means now...

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#4) On January 26, 2011 at 2:14 AM, portefeuille (99.44) wrote:

#1 If you knew as little as I do about biotech you would write even less than I do ...

I might start working in the finance industry in the not so distant future (not my own hedge fund unless I start being right not just "usually" ...) and should I for some reason be allowed to come close to the biotech stock arena I think you might turn out to be my #1 consultant. Miami Beach suboffice. The advantage for the "caps" game blog post readers will be that I will probably not be allowed to write even the little I currently do about biotech ...

I will try to find some convincing arguments supporting the idea of buying a few MNTA shares,

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#5) On January 26, 2011 at 1:17 PM, tranthrax (29.73) wrote:

Here's some help:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/248738-misunderstood-news-offers-opportunity-for-deep-discount-on-momenta-pharmaceuticals

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#6) On January 27, 2011 at 12:01 PM, Momentum21 (96.83) wrote:

After further review I am in at $12.89. 

The bear case seems pretty obvious but there are a couple of catalysts that could really move this upward in the short-term.

My bet is that this one is priced for MNTA getting screwed on both Copaxone and Lovenox. The contents of that "action letter" is what I want the scoop on. Teva is playing it pretty matter of fact...just a routine Q&A with the FDA. : ) 

That said, I am not blind to the downside... 

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