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Month of June trading thread

Recs

3

June 01, 2010 – Comments (367)

5-1-10

 

continuation of prior thread found here:  http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=386753&t=01001545002054304245

 

 

Current:  Short IVV(S&P-500 index) last week and still short.  Short put options expiring Dec 2012 on the S&P-500.

367 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 01, 2010 at 2:01 PM, guiron (25.05) wrote:

When the market is tanking, Mohammed Al-Arian is pushing bonds and talking about the New Normal, and Mark Haines is crying on Nouriel Roubini's shoulder, I like selling puts on the high beta names like AAPL in particular, especially when the market tanks hard pre-market or early in the day. Can buy it back for 25%+ within a few hours, usually.

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#2) On June 01, 2010 at 2:05 PM, guiron (25.05) wrote:

BTW, for gains these days I'm mostly long and short vertical spreads, looking for dips in vol to go long and otherwise selling put spreads. I was mostly long straddles when the market was topping, but harder to find low enough volatility to get in on that trade, although I still find a few when we rip upward.

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#3) On June 01, 2010 at 2:17 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I like trading options when the volatility is over 35.  A lot of the puts I've sold on the S&P-500 are partially backed by cash.  Typically I also do vertical spreads as well.  The put option premiums are extremely inflated.  I'm not sure on what your timeframe is, but sticking with them for awhile can mint more than 25%.  This trader I know, primarly all she does is trade options around Apple and JP Morgan.  Depending on your objective, 25-50% is not out of the ordinary.

If you are feeling risky you can do a ATM synthetic long stock for Apple.  So short a put at the money, and long a call, with the same strike.

 

I'm outright short the IVV instead of paying premium for puts.  Plus the percentage loss would not be as bad having that security move against me vs. a short call.  It is more of a hedge actually and is a very small position.

 

Long-term I am bullish on the overall market (3+) years.  I am long via short puts vs. buying in on the SPX.  Short-term 6 months-1 yr) we could see continued moves down.

 

Likewise I love taking advantage of people's emotions by trading options. 

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#4) On June 01, 2010 at 2:39 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Well like you said BP tanked today, awesome :(

I tried shorting the S&P based on the extreme weakness in teh euro and got stopped out...sucks.  The euro reversed its losses within 15 minutes.  I put in the trade, went to the shower, came back, and the Euro was back with a gain.  Unreal.  

I went back into drys for a small trade, I know you don't like them, but its very low and I think it'll make a move back near $5 on a strong day.   Let's hope I'm right lol.

I also went into gold a bit.  Making out pretty well there.

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#5) On June 01, 2010 at 2:47 PM, 1315623493 wrote:

I'm overweight put options on SPY (S&P500 Index ETF)

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#6) On June 01, 2010 at 2:50 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

hey there's nothing wrong with trying different stocks for a trade.  Don't worry about me, if you think there's a trade then by all means go for it.  The only thing though is to always keep your risk in check.  Don't let it run away as a loss.

In general I have a hard time trading stocks like DRYS, NBG, TASR, and the sub $10 stocks.  They are always pretty liquid, but I just seem to have a hard time trading them. 

Next couple of weeks are going to be pretty important because a lot of the stock market has priced in the weakness in Europe to bottom line profits/revenues.  So if it does not pan out to be the case then that is bullish for US-based equities.  I don't think Europe's woes has much of an impact as ppl think, but that's just me.

 

Unemployment report this Friday.  Haven't done anything today, just checking to see what's going on.  Had someone put the IVV short for me last Fri.  That's about it.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see BP cut their dividend.  Not completely, but at least by 50%.

I don't buy distressed companies with big dividend yields either, b/c an 8% dividend does not do much when the stock is down 30% in less than a month.  Excessively high dividend yields are almost always a bad sign.  Esp when it is excessively higher than all its peers which BP plc clearly is.  Chevron, Exxon, Conophillips, etc...don't pay remotely what BP does in terms of dividends.  This oil spill crisis certainly does not help the situation either.

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#7) On June 01, 2010 at 2:51 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

long or short Betapeg ?

 

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#8) On June 01, 2010 at 4:45 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Well bought DRYS at $4.51 and $4.39.

Bought gold but that went up, then down..so taking a 1% loss now.  Just going to hold it for a swing trade.  I have a feeling the euro weakness is going to continue and that should be good for gold.

BP kicked me in the nuts big time, but oh well.  Nothing I can do about it now.  I am hoping this next dome will provide some lift for the stock so I can exit the trade.

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#9) On June 01, 2010 at 7:57 PM, 1315623493 wrote:

I'm basically short the market. But I never go entirely in one direction because I have to leave room for being wrong.

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#10) On June 02, 2010 at 7:55 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Think this is going to be a "rug pull" day?  We had one yesterday :)  The Euro has been weakening all morning, so I guess we'll see.  I may sell into the early strength.

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#11) On June 02, 2010 at 8:34 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

BP puts in October, you can put on a 25/22.5 bull put spread and collect about .30c net credit last I checked the offers.

 

The expiration puts this well past the due date for the relief drilling wells.  Could be worth checking out.  I think BP starts to become attractve in the low 30s and certainly if it goes under $30.

 

Not sure about 1,077 is the 38.6% retracement level.  If it closes above the 200 day moving average it gives more of a compelling reason to get and stay above 1,100.  EUR/USD feel heavy so I wouldn't be surprised too get another flat/red day again.  Yesterday was a pretty violent day.

Gold is consolidating nicely and holding the gap.  Could be worth a long with a tight stop.

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#12) On June 02, 2010 at 10:41 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I don't put too much on the Euro, but I just take notice.  At some point there is a decoupling of the correlation, and it becomes a moot point.  The relationship between the stock market/euro, crude oil/us dollar (still holds true though), gold/stock market, gold/us dollar, etc.....

 

Euro looks weak but market is up.

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#13) On June 02, 2010 at 11:00 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Did that yesterday, tried to short, it went green, and then a rug pull at the end of the day.  I closed my short way before when I saw it was a lost cause, but of course, I was right.  I just wasn't willing to risk more, and took my small loss.

I actually think the next 3 days may see some green days.  Seems like there is a huge resistance point when the DOW goes around 9800-9900 and the S&P gets near 1065.  If it breaks that, that's going to get ugly.

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#14) On June 02, 2010 at 11:24 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

A lot of bad news has been priced in, so getting short in front of unemployment numbers could be problematic.

 

If unemployment is better this Friday, then it will lift the market further.

 

 

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#15) On June 02, 2010 at 11:28 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea we'll see.

It's how the numbers look, if its all census workers that are making the number go down, lets see if the public reacts positive to that or negative.  IMO we need more than just gov't census workers to make the number look better.

I'm going to be long these next few days.  Wish me luck :)

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#16) On June 02, 2010 at 12:12 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I don't think being long is a bad idea, just don't get overweight or crazy in size.  There is a lot of corporate earnings the next few weeks that may disband the idea that Europe's woes are slicing US revenues/profits.

Reality is that we have not seen hard numbers, yet the market is already pricing in a decline.

In our macro account, we are long still overall with some short positions.

 

The market has been beaten up enough that you can start scaling in small at this point.

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#17) On June 03, 2010 at 9:27 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Looks like the cat is out of the bag early and the unemployment number will be good Friday.

If you got long small yesterday, today you can add a little more.  Don't get out of control or overweight long though.

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#18) On June 03, 2010 at 9:52 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Leaned in short on US Steel off the open. Covering here. 

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#19) On June 03, 2010 at 10:04 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Well I was locked into DRYS and gold Tuesday, gained good amounts yesterday, and I'm gaining today from DRYS but only slightly.

I think we're gonna see the couple of up days I thought.

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#20) On June 03, 2010 at 10:26 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

US Steel is still hemmoraging lower. Defintitely covered too early. 

I'm not sure of the fundamentals specifically with the company, but I am sure it is related to the demand for steel overseas.  That has been primarly the story anyway.

 

BP plc just got downgraded.  BP may cut their dividend despite what CEO Tony Hayward said.  They are burning cash at an alarming rate, and oil prices seem to be stuck in the mud.  The little pop was probably just a short covering rally.

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#21) On June 03, 2010 at 10:31 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Fitch downgraded BP plc.  Moe and Larry (Moody's / S&P) will probably be coming in late to the party as usual.  The three stooges are always late and.

 

I'm not the least bit surprised by the credit cuts.  BP plc has been burning cash and has not made any progress in solving the issue. 

 

W.R. Grace company went bankrupt and the company was ripped apart over asbestos contamination and litigation costs. 

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#22) On June 03, 2010 at 11:17 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Market is just flat.  I dunno, I'm starting to have second thoughts about the green days lol!

 

Good article:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/207368-the-consequences-of-m3?source=hp_wc

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#23) On June 03, 2010 at 11:41 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I saw that downgrade and immediately sold.

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#24) On June 03, 2010 at 11:52 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Well, Moe (Moody's) came in.  All that's left is Larry (S&P) now.

Looks like a double bottom in the DJIA.  Bullish reversal and indicates lots of upside, but the way things are today, we could be down 1,000 points in the next 30 seconds.

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#25) On June 03, 2010 at 12:32 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Heading off a cliff here.

Euro very weak, economic data not coming in that great either.  Not bad, but not convincing, especially with the continual downward economic growth number.  

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#26) On June 03, 2010 at 1:19 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Bought Apple. Also bought Fannie Mae- 6,000 shares @ .93c A little speculative mad money there. Just looking for a few cents off the top in all of it.Market is turning around.Too many shorts need to cover in front of tommorow. Not surprised if we rip to the upside into the close.

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#27) On June 03, 2010 at 1:27 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Whats your stops?  We are digging pretty deep now.

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#28) On June 03, 2010 at 1:29 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Reason i ask, I'm shorting and making out small, but its something...we already heard the employment numbers are going to be down, but I'm not really impressed with them.

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#29) On June 03, 2010 at 1:36 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

volume is pretty low on a lot of the stocks I'm watching, its pretty sad.

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#30) On June 03, 2010 at 1:45 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

yet again, i guess wrong with shorting lol.

I'm pretty bad at this.

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#31) On June 03, 2010 at 5:27 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I bought 200 shares of Apple.  Sold off 100 before the close.  Still holding 100.  Fannie Mae is sorta being thrown in the back pocket for now.  I'd get out if it got to .80c or something.  It's not a huge position and its more mad money vs. real conviction.

 

That's why I hate shorting in general.  The moves are often too fast to capitalize on unless you anticipated it early. 

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#32) On June 03, 2010 at 8:52 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I have not yet, but Sprint is a buy around $4.40-$4.50.

 

Good momentum and has held up relative to the market.  Good risk vs. reward.  If it trickles to $4.10 or so, then I'd get out completely b/c that's too heavy of a pullback.

 

A little pullback is good, but too much is a bad sign.

 

Average in, don't buy all at once.

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#33) On June 03, 2010 at 11:29 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Sell longs into strength tommorow assuming we go green. Stay small or flat going into the weekend. G20 meeting going on etc etc. Im selling off the rest of Apple tommorow if we continue higher.

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#34) On June 04, 2010 at 12:02 AM, Momentum22 (29.40) wrote:

If it "trickles to $4.10"...c'mon dude....almost 20% pullback from here on Sprint would mean you would have plenty of other buying opportunities. 

And the reason it has held up is because people have finally woken up and realized they are not going away.

you might be catching your last glimpse of the 4's...choo, choo! : ) 

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#35) On June 04, 2010 at 12:23 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Ouch what a day.  Down 1.2% over all, not bad considering.

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#36) On June 04, 2010 at 2:12 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Bought 6,000 of Freddie Mac @ $1.19

 

Covered my short IVV.  Still holding onto FRE/FNM and Apple.

Rough day.  I actually had meetings this morning so I missed the opening bell.

Days like this is when you need to dive in.  I'll buy Apple again if it gets to $250ish.

 

Sprint is putting in a nice bull pennant

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#37) On June 04, 2010 at 2:22 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Looking at playing with Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV).

 

Lost money on their earnings a few days ago.  Waiting till all the rookies and weak hands get shaken out, then taking it for a micro scalp.

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#38) On June 04, 2010 at 2:53 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Lol, here comes the major pain.  Down over -300 in the DJIA.  Looks like the blackboxes are pushing it lower now.

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#39) On June 04, 2010 at 3:04 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Short-term trade in Apple.  Getting long for a scalp trade.  Looks like we pivoted for the day.

Long $256.42 

Stop @ $256.13

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#40) On June 04, 2010 at 3:16 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Haha that was quick.  I got stopped out.  Live to see another day.

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#41) On June 06, 2010 at 10:18 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Asia market crushed over 2%. Tommorow may be another ugly day. Hopefully no one is overweight long. Its about managing position sizing. The ECB needs to intervene like the Fed did back in 2008.

Stay flat, short, or long in very small positions.

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#42) On June 07, 2010 at 8:36 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Futures up compared to where they were last night when I went to bed (nearly down 1%).

 

Probably going to put some small short positions in commodities and industrials for a macro hedge.

 

Short:  CAT, US Steel.

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#43) On June 07, 2010 at 10:50 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

What are you using to short these?  What are the symbols?

I'm going to sell into any strength, which I think should build up leading to earnings.

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#44) On June 07, 2010 at 11:40 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I'm actually shorting the stock ticker itself.  There is risk in some kind of exogenous event like a takeover, but I'm in small anyways.  Plus that is probably unlikely given the growing international growth concerns.

 

Most ppl are not comfortable outright shorting a stock.  Unfortunately there are not ETFs for this.  You could short somelike like GSG which is a commodity ETF.

 

One ETF to keep your eye on is TBT.

 

The Treasury bonds are unsustainably low.  At some point the US's problems will also be highlighted and the market will command higher interest rates.  They are just low b/c of Europe's problems.

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#45) On June 07, 2010 at 11:42 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I'm willing to lose a small amount of money short b/c what I have long is more.  This is for my macro account.

 

I sold Apple that I had earlier in today's strength.  Not doing much in my active account.  I also have meetings all day today so I've been trying to juggle my trading in between on my cell phone.  Ha

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#46) On June 07, 2010 at 12:04 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I went into TBT last year, lost about 5%, so that left a sour taste in my mouth.  Until the Euro stops falling, I don't think TBT is a good pick for more than a day, and it'll be a craps shoot if you do a daily pick.  The Euro has more to fall in my opinion, so interest rates on bonds will fall more.

I'm in gold heavy, making back what I lost over last week but I think with the euro continuing its decline, gold will shoot up to its record and maybe pass it.  I'm in GDXJ and ABX, looking for a 10-15% jump.  Got into ABX around $43, GDXJ around $26. Be a nice swing trade as the panic against the Euro continues.

Once the panic stops, I have GOOG around $490, MSFT around $26, and i'm holding these leading into earnings.  A lot of speculation is going to be going on and I think that will push these higher, and if their earnings are good, we'll see them bounce even higher (but I'll probably dump some prior to earnings).

I also have Citi which I've taken a 4% loss, but that's in my IRA so I don't care, holding that for the long haul.  I also have a small stake in ATPG for another commodities play.  I'll see how that goes, and may increase it because of its upside potential. It's pretty beaten down, but i don't want to become too overweight, they have entirely too much debt for me to go too heavy in.  

Those are my holdings.

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#47) On June 07, 2010 at 12:44 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Gold is still a good position to be in.  It is a hedge against the falling market.  Technology has been strong, but specific companies like SNDK, VMW, AAPL, but certain companies have been weak, in particular Google ever since they pulled out of China.

 

I think commodities and financials are ok to be in short small.  They have been in particular weak sectors from a macro standpoint.

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#48) On June 07, 2010 at 1:59 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Problem wtih VMW that I see is their multiple is like 122x earnings.

I don't understand how they can get that high.  I am a systems engineer and I use VMWare all the time, its extremely powerful, but if your stock is 122x earnings, geez.  

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#49) On June 07, 2010 at 2:04 PM, russiangambit (29.38) wrote:

> I don't understand how they can get that high.  I am a systems engineer and I use VMWare all the time, its extremely powerful, but if your stock is 122x earnings, geez.

CRM is another one like that. It is a personal pet peeve of mine. I just don't get 100+ P/E.

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#50) On June 07, 2010 at 2:19 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

When VMW was at $58ish, I was really pondering buying a bunch of it.  I bought it last March for $22 and let it go when it hit like $40, now look at it!  ugh! 

All I'm saying is had I hung on to my original picks:

GOOG @ $247

VMW @ $22

ABX @ 26

MSFT @ $16

Does anyone else feel a melt down ready to happen again?  I'm getting the itch to just exit the market and trade when something is pretty obviously undervalued, and just stay out of it.   

and just stuck with these, I would have made around 100% of my original investment.  Sucks being me.  Since then I've been up and down, up and down...and now I'm about even :(

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#51) On June 07, 2010 at 2:33 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Part of being in the market is making tough decisions and sticking to them.  When things go the right way everyone is a trader, when things go bad suddenly they are a long-term investor refusing to cut losses.

 

If that becomes too much, 10 year Treasury bonds yield a little over 3%/year and will give you the safety you desire.

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#52) On June 07, 2010 at 3:20 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Bonds are a nightmare waiting to happen.  My gold is going up by a lot, half my portfolio is in that :)   Problem is, I'm about even with the huge run up today lol.  So I haven't made anything yet.  

Nasdaq getting killed, figures.  GOOG, MSFT getting killed.

Any potential good news that you can think of that can drive this market up?

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#53) On June 07, 2010 at 3:29 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

wow, we are in melt down mode right now lol.

Even with no news, default these days is sell.

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#54) On June 07, 2010 at 3:32 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

You gotta stick with what works vs. what dosen't.  Even if you were in the same position that you are in now and took a loss on MSFT/Google you'd actually be higher.  That's the issue is losses wipe out any profits so you have to stamp them out early.

 

I think the Europe issues are overblown.  I do recognize that there are issues, but the market has been extremely skittish about it.  I think if the ECB guarantees the debt that will lift the market.  Also if corporate equities come back positive for this quarter that will lift the market as well.  There have not been any hard numbers to substantiate the sell-off in the US over Europe's financial issues.  It is at this point just being assumed.

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#55) On June 07, 2010 at 3:44 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea, we'll see how this works out. Gonna hold for now, I have quality stocks and pretty good entry points.  Just not going my way right now.

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#56) On June 08, 2010 at 8:57 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Up about .5% all around pre-mkt.  I'm going to take the gap up as an opportunity to continue to add more small short positions to my macro porfolio as a hedge.  Shorting FSLR, FCX.

Short positions:  CAT, X, FCX, FSLR.

Charts still closed near the lows.  Asian charts also showing lots of technical damage. 

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#57) On June 08, 2010 at 9:01 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

If gold pulls back a tad, that will be an opportunity to get small long as well, since gold typically trades opposite to the market.

 

Market is still churning at its lows from a technical analysis standpoint.  Statistically the trend is still lower (substantially lower).

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#58) On June 08, 2010 at 10:40 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Taking off FSLR short and booking a profit on that....  Keeping CAT,X,FCX short.

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#59) On June 08, 2010 at 10:45 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

FSLR is taking a hit b/c energy prices are so low so there's no need for solar energy.  Also a lot of the solar stocks recieve Government subsidies in Europe which they are cutting back on, in particular Germany.  They have questionable financial results as well.

 

This company is very weak and going below $100.

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#60) On June 08, 2010 at 10:48 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Gold looking pretty strong, glad I got into that for about 1/2 of my portfolio, I'm finally in the green.

I sold off everything today.  Took about an 8% loss ($500 more).

I'm not doing well.

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#61) On June 08, 2010 at 10:49 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

All I gotta say is anyone who think BP plc was a good value stock back at $50 will think it is even a better value stock now.  I've been saying to stay away from BP for quite some time now.

 

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#62) On June 08, 2010 at 10:53 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

How are you shorting these stocks?  What symbols do you use to short them?

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#63) On June 08, 2010 at 10:54 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Gold/VIX are good hedges from the long side you can 'sit in' to hedge against market direction.  Unlike SDS, TBT and the others, gold can marinate in your portfolio without excess risk.

 

SDS/TBT are 1-2 day trades only.

 

BP plc falling apart.  I bet you are glad you got rid of yours at $37 or so.

 

I was nearly seduced into shorting BP, but it is a crowded trade and I don't short after large moves.  It's ok though.  I got in other positions anyways.

 

First Solar (FSLR) weak.

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#64) On June 08, 2010 at 10:57 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

in my brokerage account there is an option that says 'sell short'.

 

So I choose 'sell short' then type in my # of shares, then a limit order, then execute.  Don't get out of control with the size if you are new to shorting.  You can also buy in the money put options.

 

Shorting is a bit more tricky.  Before short selling, try a few trades on notebook paper.  Like look at a company you'd think about shorting, then write down prices and do several dry runs.

 

It is the same as buying a stock, except you use the short sell option and your account will be debited the # of shares.  If you do not have a 'sell short' in the drop down menu, your brokerage may not allow you to do it, or you may need special approval first.

 

Again, be careful if you do decide to do this and give yourself some dry runs first.

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#65) On June 08, 2010 at 11:03 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

 

enlarge

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#66) On June 08, 2010 at 11:04 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Gotcha, I see that, just another tool.

I sold everything but gold.  Up about 1% over all.  I'd like to ride it for a bit longer to see if it gains strength even further.  It's kind of at a top, so I don't want to put anything more in.  I think the Euro has a lot more to fall, maybe around the 1.15-1.16 level?  

I honestly do even know what anything is worth anymore, I can't even make a determination if something is cheap or not.  This market is just uninvestable (if that's even a word).

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#67) On June 08, 2010 at 11:10 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

TBT is almost at its March lows of 2009.  That's an interesting look.

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#68) On June 08, 2010 at 11:12 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I sold BP in the low $38 range.

I bought in at $46-$43 range.  Took a hit.

It's been a brutal few weeks for me.

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#69) On June 08, 2010 at 11:15 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

In times like this I honestly don't know myself either.  When I short they are small positions (10-15% max).  The market has plunged quite a bit so it could bounce and push me out of my short positions which is fine b/c the position is small and I'm willing to take a loss on it.

I think the general concensus in the foreign exchange markets is that 1.15-1.16 is a big level they are watching, then of course eventually parity (1:1) with the USD.

 

This is probably the best for Europe to have their Euro plunge in strength because a weak currency will help their exports out.  The fact that the Euro could be considered overvalued for so long is pretty interesting, but at any rate it is what it is.

 

At some point, with enough selling pressure commodities will most likely look attractive at some point. 

I think waiting until majority of Q2 corporate earnings are over would be a good entry point.  Volatility is here to stay and so is the severe fluctuations so if you want low risk and confirmation, you might want to wait until then which is probably later July or so.

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#70) On June 08, 2010 at 11:18 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

careful with TBT.  That also has political influence.  Stay away from TBT right now b/c risk is coming off the market.  Just keep an eye on it.

 

BP plc is now like 34-35.  I have no idea how low it will hemmorage and the dividend is in question.  Just give yourself a pat on the back for not riding it lower.  If they screw around with the dividend, look out below.

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#71) On June 08, 2010 at 11:24 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea, I'm roughly 75-80% liquid right now.

My dad thinks we are headed for another melt down, and has gotten out of everything, even gold.  He thinks this looks eerily  similar to the 2008 melt down.

I'm not so pessimistic, but  he's more longer term (3-5yrs) and he sees no value in the stock market right now.  He thinks greener opportunities are ahead.

 

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#72) On June 08, 2010 at 12:47 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Traders are just running the market right now.  Trend is lower at the moment which is very obvious in the S&P-500 chart.

There's something to be said about being on the correct side of the trade.

 

Long an up market, short (or be in cash) a down market.  Easy enough.

Sometimes less is more. Trade the action, and trade what is in front of you...... 

People instead would rather focus on Apple's iphone, BP's dividend, commerical real estate, Bernake's rate hike, etc, etc..... It gets to a point where it's too cumbersome and noisy.  Plus everyone is wrong anyways, are you going to trust someone who did not see subprime ? lol.  I swear I have a better track record than 95% of those guys on CNBC. 

 

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#73) On June 08, 2010 at 2:24 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I agree, traders the only one's left in the market.

I shorted the S&P when it got to 5+, I'm making about 1% now.  Penuts compared to what I lost :(

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#74) On June 08, 2010 at 3:08 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Well, we are at an important area in the S&P-500.  Looks like we may close above it.  Anything is possible though in the next upcoming days.  The way is to just hedge stuff.  I don't want to completely exit the market, so I have long/short positions, still with longs being more.

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#75) On June 08, 2010 at 3:10 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

That being 1050 on the S&P?

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#76) On June 08, 2010 at 3:34 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Looks like a lot of short covering going on. 

Market is up, market is down, market is up, down....and uninvestable is a word...I just found it online, and I couldn't come up with a better term.

 

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#77) On June 08, 2010 at 3:38 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

lot of short covering going on...traders just trading on.

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#78) On June 08, 2010 at 3:44 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

It's almost laughable how manipulated these markets look.  within 10 mins we are up 100pts after being down, S&P was down and now up 10pts. 

 

It's so painfully obvious, why would any retail investor want to bother?  It's like playing poker with a pro that has a jump on what cards are coming a few seconds before you and can make his bets appropriately.

This isn't investing, this is a casino.  Sorry, but venting.   And I know, I know...keep the bets small...manage risk...but when I'm watching this real time and watching the selling/buying dominate so quickly...its obvious their little black boxes are going to town.

 

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#79) On June 08, 2010 at 4:00 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

around 1,050-1,040 something like that.  Then they will probably pressure closer to 1,000.

It's nice the rally into day end.  The market in general is illiquid and the volume has been less than what it normally is which makes the price much more volatile.

The best thing to do is focus on a macro point of view and just trade the general trend so it puts the odds in your favor and you are on the right side of the trade. 

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#80) On June 08, 2010 at 4:06 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I'm basically on no side of the trade right now, I'm watching for now.

it didn't break the 1050 mark, so figured we'd end up higher.  I was gonna go long, but decided to just wait it out.  

I did put in a small short, and I'm sticking to it.  Everything else is in cash.

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#81) On June 08, 2010 at 4:49 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

 

enlarge

 

 

Keeps stopping at 1,040.  This is algorithmic trading in action.  If it closes below it will get pushed to 1,000.  Still under the 200 day moving average (blue line).

 

There may be a trade up to that point, but the odds are lower.  It's not very hard to see. 

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#82) On June 08, 2010 at 5:35 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I know this is a candle stick, but can you explain what solid red, vs open red means....as well as green solid/open?

Give me a "cliff notes" :)

I am going to hold gold and my short.  Nothing else will be put into the market :)

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#83) On June 08, 2010 at 6:22 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Sure.  Green and Red is pretty self-explantory, green up, red down.

 

On this software, the candlesticks are illustrated on open vs. close.

 

and the down days are filled in, hence the solid red sticks.  It is just for illustration purposes.

 

The reason why I am short in an area where we could 'theoretically bounce' is that if it closes and pushes thru it will continue to go further down.

 

What I put above in the chart is what algorethmic boxes calculate.  They also calculate trendlines, volume, etc.

 

Some algo boxes are designed to constantly re-calculate risk in relationship to asset classes, beta within the portfolio, etc, etc....they also view price action.

 

If for no other reason, technical analysis is valid (in my opinion) and why I use/practice it is because everyone is seeing the same thing and so are the algorithmic black boxes.

Those boxes are aggressive, they are fast, and they move serious $$$$ around with no emotion.

When boxes can rip markets past support/resistance levels in less than 5 minutes and 100 points, or during the flash crash 1,000 point to the downside, that is valid enough for me.  So instead of fighting it, that's why I just learned technical analysis and use it because it is also the blackboxes' language.

 

 I was dealing with an algo awhile back that constantly is monitoring the market's movements and re-calculating off of them portfolio risk to standard deviations, expected returns, etc, etc........................it's boring, but that's what a lot of these machines are doing.

 

Is it a self-fullfilling prophecy ? Possibly, but when everyone is throwing around trillions of dollars moving the market off of it, its real enough for me to believe. 

 

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#84) On June 08, 2010 at 7:02 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

So what does the open green/red boxes mean?  I understand the longer the candle, the bigger the price range was during that day.

 

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#85) On June 08, 2010 at 7:10 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I am also noticing how razor thin volume is...wow its low.

 

 

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#86) On June 08, 2010 at 8:08 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

low volume means less people (buying or selling).  so if that is the case it takes less cash to move prices which is why the boxes are that much more potent.  Also the bid/ask spreads on some stocks I trade are wide.

If you look, unless you are trading Apple or some popular stock, a lot of volumes are lower than average

 

As far as the candlesticks, if they are filled or not does not mean anything.  It is just for clarity to see the contrast.

 

If there was any bullish turnaround it was on Friday 5/21/10, in my opinion.  The S&P-500 put in a nice green candlestick with big volume and it failed.  The green volume has been weaker and weaker since.  I circled the candlestick I was talking about. At the time I thought that was the bottom; however, it was not.

 

Stochastics also has a negative divergance.

 

 

enlarge

 

 

 

 

So since you always want to be on the right side, unless something changes, the odds are lower from what I am seeing.

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#87) On June 09, 2010 at 11:08 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Welp, we off the the races today, tho nothing I'm long on is getting any love.

My short is getting battered, but whatever, I'm holding on to it.  It's pretty small.

Euro through the roof, all speculation at this point.

I think it may get to 1.21 and I'll add to my short position.

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#88) On June 09, 2010 at 11:13 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

same here.  sitting in a little heat in my short position.  likewise, I'm also small so it's not a big deal.  When things fall everyone runs for the door. fast.

 

the problem is that some sectors look like crap vs. others so it is not consistant.

 

Still a lot of contingent events.  Plus we all know how fast the market can turn 5 minutes till close, lol.

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#89) On June 09, 2010 at 11:23 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

bought a little VXX and GLD long to hedge against a 'getting my pants pulled down' type of event.

 

Sold some longs into this up move. 

 

 

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#90) On June 09, 2010 at 11:28 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I think theres a lot of pent up buying going on.  Buyers are looking for reasons to buy, I honestly haven't found anything that I find worthy yet. I still think Euro has some falling, and it only takes one event to trigger the fall.  I'm down about 2% in my short over all.  Gold I'm up about 1%, so whatever.

I'm liquid other than that.  Going to wait and be patient, stick to my positions for now.  

Got anything you're looking at?  I'm seeing APPL getting weak, if it gets back to $240 level, I may put a play into that. Tech in general tho is looking pretty weak.  I  have a small stake in Citi, which has done pretty well, but I have to get back to the $3.90 level to break even so I still have some ways to go.  I'm holding on to that for the long haul and its a small stake.

My other small stakes are VZ, GOOG, ABX, GDXJ.

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#91) On June 09, 2010 at 12:02 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Apple has been weak.  It has been selling off lately, but it will ramp up going into earnings.  Likewise, other than a few small short positions and whatnot, I'm sitting aside as well.  It is one thing to be involved, it's another thing to be heavy in the market.  If the market is going to go up, it will keep going and I'm willing to miss the first part of it.

Other than that I'm with you, anything that I've been in lately I've just been managing.  I don't see a lot compelling either.  Market is up too b/c of Bernake.

 

A lot of this is headline risk.  There's nothing fundamentally that has changed in a drastic way yet.  Europe is still in dire waters. 

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#92) On June 09, 2010 at 12:10 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I added a small 3x short SPXU 75 shares.

Wish me luck :)  

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#93) On June 09, 2010 at 12:15 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I shorted a little First Solar (FSLR) myself.

Just keeping it small.  Traders I talked to are taking trades, but no one I know is going 'all in' long at this point.

 

You can get ur pants pulled down by the last 10 minutes of trading. lol.

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#94) On June 09, 2010 at 12:51 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

No kidding, it's really crazy, the last hour is when I look at the market, these days, whatever happens throughout the day is meaningless....except those last 30-45mins. It's either going to be a short covering rally, or pulling the rug from those baited into going long.

Looks like the market is calming down tho....and starting to retrace a bit.  Euro holding its ground, may see another day or 2 up for the Euro, I'd be shocked if it got past $1.22

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#95) On June 09, 2010 at 1:05 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Hmmm...we seeing a rug pull day here?  I'm not calling it, but sure feels like it.  Bulls getting baited...but I'll hold off any calls, b/c its still early lol!

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#96) On June 09, 2010 at 1:16 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

right now I'm not sure.  Rug pulls are more predictable before the weekend and whatnot, but right now I'm not sure.  The futures are holding up quite a bit, but the euro seems to have peaked for the day.  Just sitting on my hands and seeing how things pan out.  Anything is possible, no joke.

 

on a side note:  BP is getting crushed.

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#97) On June 09, 2010 at 1:20 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Someone came in strong and bought 20,000 BP july $32 put options.  Strong buyer.

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#98) On June 09, 2010 at 2:17 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I think BP will go lower than that when the dividend gets cut.

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#99) On June 09, 2010 at 2:25 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

If the Euro dips back in the 1.19 area...we should see a pretty significant pull back.

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#100) On June 09, 2010 at 2:54 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Rug pull day

Glad I upped my shorts :)

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#101) On June 09, 2010 at 2:55 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

euro back in the 1.19 area.

woohoo :)

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#102) On June 09, 2010 at 2:59 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Upped my gold exposure on the down day.

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#103) On June 09, 2010 at 3:03 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

back up we go :)  black boxes working over time lol!

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#104) On June 09, 2010 at 3:05 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

yep.  The market stayed up most of the day, but it felt heavy underneith because a lot of sectors were not responding in the rally.  Most importantly Apple.  When Apple is down, but the rest of the market is up there better be a really good reason for it, or it is just a fake out.

 

Haha.  Bulls got baited.

 

Glad I got long earlier gold.  I've been wanting to ease into it for quite some time, just never got a compelling opportunity before today.  Same with the VXX.

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#105) On June 09, 2010 at 3:10 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I'm going to go into Apple if it can get into the low $240 range, maybe even if it creeps into the $230 range.

After my shorts cash in and get me back a bit, I'll look at it and see how its doing.

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#106) On June 09, 2010 at 3:13 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

It's official, the rugh has been pulled.

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#107) On June 09, 2010 at 3:16 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

yep.  Sucks for people who didn't get short earlier today.  Here's an article that is crude, but very true overall.  There's lot of suckers out in the stock market that were born to lose money:

 

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/american-investors-predictably-stupid.aspx?GT1=33002

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#108) On June 09, 2010 at 3:30 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Good article.

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#109) On June 09, 2010 at 3:31 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

hold on to your hats kids..here comes the last 30 mins...its usually a doozy :)  I'm hoping its a DOWN doozy.

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#110) On June 09, 2010 at 3:32 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Taking off some here.  Booking some profits.  Nothing wild.

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#111) On June 09, 2010 at 3:38 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

hehe, taking off some more here.  That's it for the day.  Just lightening up a bit for now.

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#112) On June 09, 2010 at 3:44 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

we really flirting with that 1050 level today.

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#113) On June 09, 2010 at 3:54 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

One of these days if it keeps punching 1,050-1,040 it's not gonna hold and it will only push the market lower.

 

The level area is picked up on by the algos so when it goes, the algos will keep pushing lower and selling stops.  That's why I have gotten short lately in anticipation b/c if it goes it will go super fast. 

 

The market today was not as obvious that it was weak.  You sorta had to look under the hood.  Apple was weak and flimsy most of the day so it was something to heed caution, then the Euro started coming in, and that was it.

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#114) On June 09, 2010 at 4:28 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Well I erased my 2% loss, and gained about 5% on my new bets on shorts for an over all gain of about $600.

I'm still liquid, I think if the market goes lower tomorrow, I'll sell everything but my gold stocks and be liquid for a lead into earnings.  I think speculation will hit big time when earnings start coming out, but I'm going to ease my way in.

The bears have solid control.  

Got any nifty graphs? lol

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#115) On June 09, 2010 at 5:13 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

 

enlarge

 

 

I wrote this up pretty quick.  Nothing really new.  Low volume again and the trend is still clearly down.  If there is a confirmed change to the upside I'll see it, but I don't see it right now.

 

If the market keeps getting pressure, I think the ultimate bottom is around 1,000 in the S&P-500 or around that area.......if the downward pressure continues......

 

 

Until then unless something compelling gives us a reason to believe it is a bull market it is not.  If you look at several company stock, the majority of them look the same, also trending lower (of course there are some exceptions).

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#116) On June 09, 2010 at 5:57 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I agree.  This is getting scary for many...this "correction" isn't really becoming a correction anymore.  9800 will fall, 1050 will fall if the euro can not gain traction.

I do see though while watching the ticker real time when the S&P hits around 1050, the super computers are trying to edge it up higher only to succumb to other computers pushing it lower.  As if some computers think this is a buying opportunity, while others use the bounce up as a reason to sell.

Interesting times.

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#117) On June 09, 2010 at 6:08 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I'll be surprised if the S&P-500 even gets back to 1,100-1,090.

On an intraday level, the computer push prices past certain levels and shorts get squeezed.  Today was most likely a very frustrating day for most traders because it pushed high and held for half the day before falling apart, so shorts who have weak hands got squeezed, and longs ran in and kept buying.

From a technical standpoint, the candlestick put in today was very ugly.  It had a long tail and pierced through several levels before reversing.  The 3 lows put in will most likely break is my assumption and we go to 1,000 or close to.  Have to wait and see how things play out.

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#118) On June 09, 2010 at 6:11 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

i suppose some rare chance this could be a double bottom that leads to a bull market, but I would not count on it.

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#119) On June 09, 2010 at 6:19 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

In extended trading hours, my shorts are climbing which is telling me at least for now, the market is continuing lower.

But then again, who the hell knows what tomorrow brings. lol!

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#120) On June 09, 2010 at 6:49 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

lol.  S&P-500 futures are down about 0.64% right now.  Today was not up for any fundamental reason.  It was just a lot of short covering like yesterday.  That's why there are rips to the upside right before the close b/c ppl want to close out their short positions and are not comfortable holding them overnight.

 

The market is ultrasensative to exogenous events and headline news so it is hard to be larger in any position unless it is a strictly disciplined day trade.

 

The FXE is a good ETF to play the euro, but it is hard to short because often times a 'locate' cannot be executed.  I thought about doing a synthetic short with options, but the Euro has been crushed so much that it is not really worth it at the moment.

 

FXB is the British Sterling.  FXY is the Japanese Yen.

 

At some point both those currencies will be in the spotlight.  Japan in particular has been manuvering under a ridiculous amount of debt.  Most guys I know have been initiating short positions in the FXB (sterling).

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#121) On June 10, 2010 at 7:34 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Looks like we heading up today, bleh!  

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#122) On June 10, 2010 at 11:08 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

wow, look at the market today...gotta love it.

We going to have a repeat of last week?  Extreme up, then an extreme down?  I dunno, guess we'll find out.

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#123) On June 10, 2010 at 11:59 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

not sure.  I got out of some longs today though.  Glad I took some profits from my short positions yesterday, but all in all, I'm still keeping the few I have short.  Pretty wild fluctuations though.

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#124) On June 10, 2010 at 12:46 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Market is acting unhealthy again. Goldman Sachs weak, and Apple is starting to look weak as well.

 

I'm not a doomsday guy, I'm just trading the action, but every attempt has been lackluster.  There may be a possibility to close again red.  The high of today squeezed out daytrader short sellers and may reverse.

 

Volume weak, action is sloppy.  If ur long, today is a gift to lighten up.  Short small Caterpillar, still have longs, I'm in cash more than I have been lately with positions on both sides.

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#125) On June 10, 2010 at 12:58 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

euro weakening again.

stuck with my shorts through the night. I thought it'd be a green day, but nothing like this.  oh well goes to show you...gotta take profits while you can.

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#126) On June 10, 2010 at 1:07 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Of we end up red again, that would be nuts.  That would totally take the wind out of the bulls sails.  I dunno, looks like this is going to hold, maybe not it's highs, but looks like we going to end up green.

 

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#127) On June 10, 2010 at 1:12 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

that's why i scale in and scale out.  you'll lose more money trying to pin tops and bottoms vs. just getting the meat of the move.  The action has been really choppy which is why I'm in cash more than I have been.

 

Long:  GLD, VXX

Short: CAT, X, FCX

(this is for my active account).

I was scalp trading FSLR short back and forth, but I did not hold on to it extended.

 

Majority of these are 10% of normal positions so they are relatively small. 

 

In the macro account I let Sprint go. 

 

Bought that small back around $4.50 when I said earlier I was going to rebuy around $4.40-$4.50. (See Post #32). 

Went as high as $4.76.  My sell order was executed at $4.71.  Just sold it into the strength this morning.  Nothing wild, just a 4% or so gain.

 

Sprint is not compelling now and seems to have lost its momentum.  There may be a gap fill to the downside, then it may ultimately go back to $4.00 if it is really weak.  Just taking trades..............

 

I'm in cash though more than I have been in the past.  Waiting for this S&P-500 trading range to resolve itself.

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#128) On June 10, 2010 at 1:14 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Post #34, Momentum21 was probably the one who took Sprint off my hands the first time I bought it back in Feb and is now holding it at $5.00

 

I remember he also said that he was comfortable with his analysis in NBG at $3.25 as well.  He probably top ticked my trade in that stock as well.

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#129) On June 10, 2010 at 1:24 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

NBG I screwed that up big time :(  Was up pretty big, something like 30%...oh well

I haven't made any major mistakes since, but the little ones are starting to add up.  

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#130) On June 10, 2010 at 1:29 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

http://www.infowars.com/alex-jones-bilderberg-is-running-scared/

 

"Most urgent inside Bilderberg 2010 is the instability surrounding the Euro, which is threatening to unravel, and take the momentum for further regional integration and global currency with it. More gravely, veteran Jim Tucker has told the Alex Jones Show that many attendees inside Bilderberg were very supportive of initiating the long-boiling war with Iran. According to inside sources, even a nuclear strike was not off the table."

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#131) On June 10, 2010 at 2:49 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

market is running away now.  bleh...now my shorts are being crushed.  rough day.  Doesn't look like this one is coming back down...and it may run tomorrow as well.

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#132) On June 10, 2010 at 3:24 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Can we make it 300pts today?  Sure feels like the computers are trying to push it up.  1090 on S&P in one day?  Can we see it?!  It's awful close.

 

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#133) On June 10, 2010 at 3:51 PM, Momentum21 (50.12) wrote:

#128 - if you are keeping score at home I intitally bought Sprint on Oct 9 and have bought more along the way. Right now my cost is $3.60. It is my largest holding.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=368123&t=01001455053240279389 

My cost on NBG is $3.25...so I am down as much as I am up in Sprint and fortunately I own 3x as many shares of Sprint. 

I have a longer term outlook then you gentlemen. Market timing is not my expertise but I have taken profits/losses in many of my holdings along the way. 

To recap: AOI, ABT, ATPG, AZN, CNU, CSR, ETFCD, FEED, GLCH, HEAT, IKAN, JAV, ITMN, MWA, NBG,  NYT, RJET, S, SAY, SLW, STD, T, VLO and XIN (24 total: 4 over my limit)

Largest positions in S, CSR, RJET and ATPG 

And if I did own Sprint at $5.00 I would be OK with that since it will continue to advance in my opinion.

 

 

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#134) On June 10, 2010 at 4:00 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

It just couldn't quite get to 1090.

What a crazy day.

New Bull market?

 

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#135) On June 10, 2010 at 10:40 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Sold my Freddie Mac today.  Took a 1.6% loss.  No biggie.  Still holding Fannie Mae as a junk b.s. trade.  Still have my other small positions both long and short.   I am not adding to anything here we are still consolidating in this range.  Not trading tommorow either b/c Friday is typically a light volume day and also going into the weekend.  Not calling a new bull market.  Charts still look bearish the volume keeps getting lighter and lighter.

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#136) On June 10, 2010 at 10:42 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

If this is a bottom and it is moving up that's ok, I'll just have to miss the first part of it, there is still a negative divergence in the stochastics.  If there is a compelling change in the market ill post a chart.

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#137) On June 11, 2010 at 10:45 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

This is an interesting day.  Down, then up, then down, then up!  No direction for the day.

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#138) On June 11, 2010 at 11:23 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Weakening Euro again, I hope it continues.  If we can get below the $1.20 mark, look out below :)  Probably won't happen, but who knows...anythings possible these days lol

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#139) On June 11, 2010 at 12:41 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

crazy day.  I know i'll probably regret this later on but I sold my VXX and GLD positions entirely and booked a profit.  Gold was ripping and now I gotta sit on my hands again for another opportunity to buy.

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#140) On June 11, 2010 at 1:36 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

waiting to see how we close today.  If it closes red then that will be another red reversal candlestick.

 

 

enlarge

 

Same old picture.  Eventually this will resolve itself.  Stochastics seem to be peaking a bit.  I put in an oval above the downtrend line.  A strong close in that area with volume could signal a return for the bull market.  That's what I am looking for in the meantime.

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#141) On June 11, 2010 at 2:14 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Turned into a pretty boring day.

Euro remains weak, next week will be interesting.  We'll see if the tide has turned. It may have, I'll be watching closely.

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#142) On June 11, 2010 at 3:03 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Looks like we are trying to rip into the close.

We'll see how the last hour plays out.  Should be interesting.

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#143) On June 11, 2010 at 4:19 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Shocker...we end up higher. 

Seems like wheenver I'm short, I lose, when I'm long, I lose.  lol.

Having a bad month here.

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#144) On June 13, 2010 at 9:36 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

This isn't good news for shorts, like me :(

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704575304575296494023306842.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

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#145) On June 14, 2010 at 5:56 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

euro real strong today, looking like im gonna exit most of my shorts, like you did after big down day last week....only im exiting at a pretty major loss.

 

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#146) On June 14, 2010 at 10:49 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Big resistance at 1100 and 10,300.

Can we break through?

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#147) On June 14, 2010 at 1:16 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Wow, dow has 1/2'd its gains within 30 mins.  If this goes negative, I'll be pretty excited.

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#148) On June 14, 2010 at 2:09 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Looks as though we are flirting with reversing all the gains, unbelievable.

Like the Eurozone fixed its problems??  Is anyone else awake?  The downgrade to Greece's debt is probably just the tip of the iceburg.  Spain and Portugual are next.

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#149) On June 14, 2010 at 3:33 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Last half hour of trading, this should be interesting :) 

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#150) On June 15, 2010 at 7:23 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

The bulls just won't quit will they?   It's uncanny.

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#151) On June 15, 2010 at 8:34 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I was in meetings all yesterday so I was not able to check the market, that's pretty funny how it dragged lower though.  I did lighten up some shorts yesterday and also sold some longs.  Still in cash in the meantime, I think it is best to wait until it resolves itself one way or another.  The late sell-off is a reminder how quickly things can change.

 

EUO is a reverse Euro ETF.  At some point when Europe's issues come to roost that may make sense.  Right now I will buy in some GLD today, just ease into a small position.

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#152) On June 15, 2010 at 8:40 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Best Buy wiffed earnings.  One thing to keep an eye on is how corporate earnings are guided.  Callaway Golf (which does not really matter though) guided lower.  I think a lot of companies will use the 'Euro' as an excuse why they did not cut it.

 

Best Buy's poor earnings is very importany, becase essentially the market is focusing on consumer oriented companies.

 

So right now is a position to be netural to short.  I think there's a lot that can go wrong and very little that can go right to be honest.

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#153) On June 15, 2010 at 10:12 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Best buy definitely wiffed, and pretty big, but the market is up because of the Euro going higher and by a lot.  There is so much pent up buying, it seems like the bulls just want to buy on any good news they can find.  I'm not seeing a whole lot that can go right, but if FedEx meets earnings, I have a feeling 10,300 on the Dow and 1100 on S&P will be broken and we will continue upwards. 

I don't see a whole lot of upside to this market, but then again, the market hasn't made too much sense lately, so what I believe and what the market does will probably be opposites lol.

 

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#154) On June 15, 2010 at 10:51 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Crazy market.  It has been climbing up quite a bit.  Bought some gold on the weakness this morning and sold it.  Day trade, but I'll take whatever works.

 

Bought a little BP today at $30.01.  Mad money and a speculative trade.  I'm already green on it.  I know a lot of people that have been burned by BP, but I guess it was my turn to dive in, lol.

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#155) On June 15, 2010 at 11:04 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Wow the market is going nuts, makes no sense to me...but such is life.

My shorts getting battered.  I have a feeling this gain is going to stick...but I guess we'll see.  Euro is real strong, this again makes no sense to me.  Nothing has changed.

I think my best option is not to watch it.  Just going to end up ruining my day lol.  

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#156) On June 15, 2010 at 11:09 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Approaching the 1100 mark and 10,300 mark.

Can we cross and close above these marks decisively?  I guess we'll see, it's too hard not to watch lol...no matter what happens to my shorts.

Home builders come in disappointing, Best Buy disappoints, yet import prices drop probably largely to the strength in the dollar combined with less demand. 

Yet we pop in the market 100+ points, yea....that makes sense.

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#157) On June 15, 2010 at 12:00 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Well, also you have to keep in mind there are a lot of shorts getting crushed, myself included.  This morning and yesterday I took off the short positions I have as it seems like it will continue upward. Holding BP small.

 

This tape has been very tough to trade for me lately.

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#158) On June 15, 2010 at 12:19 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

in our macro account, we bought the S&P-500 index awhile back when the market fell to the downside and are finally getting back green in it.  going into the 2010 the portfolio was a bit more overweight in equities than I had preferred.

 

If you are in the green in any longs, take a look at managing your risk and taking money off the table.  Treasury bonds don't yield much, but we put in a good amount into them. 

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#159) On June 15, 2010 at 12:51 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea, I have a few short positions, and they are getting destroyed.  Down almost 10% on both...ouch...especialy when I was up 5% on both last week...blows.

Euro seems to be getting stronger, which I don't understand.  The market has been seesawing back and forth, so I'm not going to panic and sell.  The bulls have been trying desperately to go up the past 4-5 sessions.  They've had 2 big days, with a few small down days.  Just not enough bad news to derail this, when just a week prior, any bad news was a signal to sell.

If Spain or Portugal or any EU nation has bad news, I can see this being derailed in a big way.  But as it stands, looks like the only thing coming out is "good" news.

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#160) On June 15, 2010 at 1:18 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

The Euro was also heavily shorted.  I think it was the most crowded trade the past 6 months, so there's also short covering for the euro as well.  Likewise, I am not optimistic about the Euro because a lot of the issues at hand do not just stem with just Greece, or Spain, but mainly all of Europe, including the UK and also Japan which is probably the most overlooked.

My short positions got crushed as well.  I had an initial 10% position which I lost 10% of so all in all 1% loss, not the end of the world.   It is about mitigating risk.

 

If things continue to melt up, I may look at putting short positions back on at some point.  The non-stop rally from Feb-April was completely wiped out in the course of a few weeks ago honestly I am not too concerned.

 

The market is whipsawing back and forth, and if it plunges again in the short-term then people will race for the doors again.

 

Good 'ol BP.  I'm not sure why it started ripping to the upside, but I sold into that.  I wasn't planning on making it a daytrade, but whatever, it works.

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#161) On June 15, 2010 at 1:22 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Took a haircut on Freeport McMoRan and Caterpillar yesterday.  Those things ripped to the upside extremely quick, so I just got squeezed out.  I think longer-term Freeport McMoran continues to go lower, but short-term a lot of the cyclical industrials and commodities are pressing higher.

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#162) On June 15, 2010 at 1:30 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

We are above the 200 day moving average (or right at it).

I keep saying the Euro can't possibly keep rallying, but I said that after day 3, then day 4, now today. I dunno, I'm at a loss.

I'm torn if the tide has turned or not and I should just sell and take my losses, or wait it out.  I'm terrified of earnings, if they come in good, I'm going to be crushed. 

If Best Buy is any indication how its going to be, I'm cool with that. But knowing my luck (or lack there of lately) I'm going to take the short end of this stick.  Bulls are just looking for a reason to push this up.

 

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#163) On June 15, 2010 at 1:36 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Interesting article

http://www.businessinsider.com/armageddon-axa-financial-says-the-eurozone-could-break-in-half-or-disintegrate-2010-6

Meaningless these days though.

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#164) On June 15, 2010 at 1:58 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

If we close above the 200-day moving average, I'd close your short positions or substantially reduce your short positions.  The range has been ping ponging.  The 1,040-1,050 held, but so has the 200-day above.  Tough to trade.  Euro may be a short set-up around 1.25.

 

Honestly though, don't overthink it.  This is where things become problematic is running back and forth banging your head.  If we close above the 200-day, I'd roll out of 80% of your short positions if not all.  I got out of all of mine b/c the short positions I had were substantially higher than the overall index.

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#165) On June 15, 2010 at 2:36 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I got out of them, taking a 10% loss or roughly $1000.

I'm on a heavy losing streak. 

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#166) On June 15, 2010 at 3:30 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Are you still long your gold ?  This Friday is options expiration, so keep in mind it will be volatile again.  If you have any gains in gold, take some off the table.

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#167) On June 15, 2010 at 3:48 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea still have gold, but at a 1% loss...it gained a lot today.  At this point, I don't know wtf to do...I'm lost.   Think I just need a break from the market to clear head.  And watch, now that I sold my shorts, the market will tank tomorrow 400pts lol.  Wouldn't that be my luck haha.

My marginal account dipped below 25K so now its saying I have a minimum equity call for a "day trader."  If I can't swing between trades, I may just exit all together...and put it in a saving account.  I kept my money in for 3 days, and its lost me 10%.  I don't want to repeat the same mistake.

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#168) On June 15, 2010 at 4:02 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

For the 25k minimum day trader that is for all trades bought and sold the same day.  If you buy something then sell it the next day that does not qualify as a day trader, so that's what the issue may be with the account.  I'd call them to see.

 

I'm somewhat lost myself right now which is why I've transitioned into most cash for the time being.  Traders I have talked to are putting back on the short positions in anticipation of a push lower.  I am not myself though as I'm not sure that will happen in the short-term.

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#169) On June 15, 2010 at 4:34 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I did, that's what they told me.  I can only do 3 day trades in a 5 day period, or increase my account to 25K or more.  I've done that two times now, so they can't take the flag off my account, so now I'm a "cash only" account.  So if I make a trade, and sell it within the day, I have 3 business days before my money clears my account.  That sucks.   If I hold it for 3 days, I get my money back instantly.  Ugh, more good news haha.

Well I'm going to be sitting the sidelines for a while until I see something compelling.  This shorting/long business is losing me money hand over fist.  My account was at 27,000ish, now down to $24,000ish in a week.  Ouch.  Not good. My fiance would kill me lol.

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#170) On June 16, 2010 at 8:42 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Don't dwell too much on it.  I got smoked about $1,700 on my short positions, but net net I was able to recoup it plus about +$250 from gold/BP.  That's partly why I bought/sold gold and BP the same day was to offset some of those losses.  $1,950 in gains only amounts to $250 after losses....haha it is what it is.

 

My account is over 100k so $1,700 in comparison is smaller.  I took alittle over $500 in losses for 3 short positions I held which netted $1,700 in losses which I finally rolled out of.  I don't use margin, just cash only which helps keep me disciplined.

 

Likewise I'm just hanging in cash until there's better clarity.  I think I get like .001% interest in money market for being in cash at my brokerage....ha

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#171) On June 16, 2010 at 9:03 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Ha.  Futures down.   Anyways, at least I'm not involved in the noise.  Waiting to see how today continues, if there's follow through to the downside and if we close below the 200 day.

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#172) On June 16, 2010 at 10:34 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea I don't use the margin, but that allows me to day trade, because I don't have 100K.  I have 25% of that haha, I'm not rolling like you! :)

Well it figures, down day and I sold my shorts.  awesome.  Nothing i'm doing these days seems right lol.

Euro still not giving, but a lot of bad economic news today.  I'm kind of surprised the market isn't going down more.   I opened a small, small short position at the begining of the day.  I'm going to hold this one as a hedge eitehr way.  If it goes down, fine I win...if it goes up, I'll open some long positions.  

I'm starting to learn :)

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#173) On June 16, 2010 at 11:19 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Wow the bulls just won't let go.

 

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#174) On June 16, 2010 at 11:28 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

that's the thing with hedging is that you are not completely on the hook when things go the wrong way, but you still win either way the market moves.  It has been really choppy right now, and as much as I am tempted to get in I will wait for right now.

My account is a combination of life savings, work income, and all of last year...haha.  I traded very aggressively the commodity/industrial sector which got completely beat up in 2008/early 2009.  I think anyone long just about made money in the insane rally all of 2009.  I do know one guy who did fight the tape and lost a lot (i mean ALOT) of cash trying to short the market.........

 

If you do trade, keep it relatively small as you are now.  In your account of 24-25k, I'd consider a small position 700-800 dollars with a max loss of 8-10% which is like $60-$70 or so.

 

For me a small position would be about $4500-5000 which is around 3% of my overall account ($175k).

 

Speaking of which, I got taken out to the woodshed on my Fannie Mae position.  Lost about $2,500 on that...haha..whew.  Both Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae got deslisted from the NYSE.  It is a good thing I got out of atleast Freddie Mac awhile back before this.  It is what it is.  You win some, you lose some.

 

That's why I don't get too wild in size unless I have some conviction b/c as a percentage of my overall portfolio it is small, but could have been a disaster if I had put more on the line.

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#175) On June 16, 2010 at 11:34 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea the market has no direction right now.  We are at a top?  Are we just beginning a new bull market?  I see a lot of negative news, but then again, I'm looking for it, and the market is shrugging it off.

I put in 2 short positions.  I'm going to keep them, and then play some dips if they come, swing it both ways.   I like your strategy, I have a lot of ground to make up.

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#176) On June 16, 2010 at 12:08 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

This is hilarious, back into positive territory.  Market just has too much momentum upwards at this point.  It's just how the tape is laying now.  We had 6 weeks of down, now this the 2nd week of up.

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#177) On June 16, 2010 at 12:35 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

keep the short positions very light.  You might want to dabble long as well since you opened your short positions.

 

In my opinion, I'd recommend to you Intel (INTC).  It has a 2.93% dividend that they have been paying forever, plus I think tech will rally into Apple's earnings July.  Also IBM isn't a bad long either.

I don't have Intel, but we do have IBM in our macro account as a small position (200 shares).  We did have at one point 1,000, but have since lightened up.

I think Intel around $20 or below is a buy.  I will buy 200 shares of Intel for our macro account if it gets to that point. 

I think both are decent companies that can be held as more of investments vs. trades.  Both have decent dividend yields that they have been paying for a long time and a good market position. 

 

The IBM position that we have is not something I follow day to day as a trade b/c it is a 'real' company vs. some of the other junk out there.

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#178) On June 16, 2010 at 12:37 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

If gold keeps pulling back I'll look to get involved small for a trade.

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#179) On June 16, 2010 at 12:47 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea I was thinking the same thing.  Gold has been moving backwards the past few days.

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#180) On June 16, 2010 at 12:49 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

IAG is the one that I'm in, its treating me nicely, up about 7%

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#181) On June 16, 2010 at 12:50 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I really like it at the $119 on GLD.  If it pulls back to that area, I'll look to be involved.  With the stock market melting higher, eventually it will get back to that point.

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#182) On June 16, 2010 at 12:52 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

7% ? Id book the profit.

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#183) On June 16, 2010 at 12:57 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea, very small though, I mean I had $1200 into it, with a profit of about $40.

With fee of $9.99 to sell, that sucks.

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#184) On June 16, 2010 at 12:58 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

It was at 6.85% profit.  Sorry, misstated.

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#185) On June 16, 2010 at 12:59 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

ah ok.  Well, in that case let it run then for a little more.  At least ur in small though and not crazy in size.

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#186) On June 16, 2010 at 1:08 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea but part of the small size problem is even if I book a big gain like this, the profit is tiny, and gets eatten by fees.  I usually do trades of $2000-$3000 so its worth it.  I dunno, its a gain, I haven't had many of those lately haha  It's been a pretty bad week/month.

The directionless trading continues.  Euro weakening a bit but nothing is derailing the bulls at this point.  The sky could fall and the market will go up lol.

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#187) On June 16, 2010 at 1:36 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

everyone i know has bad weeks/months.  There are certain things in life where you really have to have a passion for it or else you'll end up hating it.  For me I studied engineering at Purdue University for 1 year and hated it, trading I enjoyed.  That's what keeps me still in.

 

This is just my own opinion, but this what I believe may happen later on down the line:

 

I think corporate earnings have been decent, however; the Federal Government has dumped enormous amounts of money into the economy, so inevitably it finds its way into the stock market and corporation's wallets.  I mean when you speak in terms of 'trillions' of dollars, its like a flash flood in a neighborhood where the water works itself into every crack and crevice.

The thing is the Government has not pulled back on any of the spending or money that keeps getting put in.  Also Nassim Taleb made a good point about 'debt growing like a cancer'.  He is the author of 'The Black Swan'.

 

I know Jim Chanos thinks China is a bubble, and some other guy (I cannot remember his name) thinks for profit education is the next subprime, whatever.....everyone has their own thesis.

Warren Buffett recently said that municipalities are going to be a problem in the future, and of course when he says it everyone notices, but when I say it it does not make a blip, but I digress.

The municipal market is a 2.8 trillion dollar market which is swamped with uncontrollable debt.  I've looked at several pension funds where they have listed their funding and asset management and many of them are 50-70% funded.  I think Greece is a glimpse of what will happen within the US.  The states are just like Greece in which they cannot print money, but have the ability to tax.  Well, it has not worked in Greece regarding their taxing power, and states will also be in the same situation.

 

Meaning for every dollar there is only .50-.70 cents.  I've said it before, but I think the municipal market is the next subprime and it will be very devastating when it occurs.

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#188) On June 16, 2010 at 1:43 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I agree with you on every point, nothing has been solved in the US or Europe.  

Tug of war going on right now, bulls want to buy, bears are not around.  I dont' know what the volume looks like, but I'm sure its extremely light.

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#189) On June 16, 2010 at 2:34 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I'm at a loss for words, the market makes no sense what so ever.

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#190) On June 16, 2010 at 2:48 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

There was a melt up in Feb earlier this year.  The market went up non-stop for nearly 1.5 months, then wiped out the whole year + an additional 5% in about 3-4 weeks.

 

I think this run up for whatever rational is an opportunity to deleverage accounts and keep position sizing small.  We sold off the rest of our IBM (200 shares) to book a profit for right now and about 70% cash in the macro account. 

 

One thing to keep in mind is the tensions building with North/South Korea.  If there is an attack the market will sell-off on that news.  Also if there continues to be pronounced negative news in Europe (which is still occuring), that may also trigger a sell-off.

The time to have been buying was around 1,044 on the S&P-500 index.  The hardest thing to do is to buy when the market is collapsing and sit on your hands when it keeps melting up.

 

I certainly would not be a chaser at these levels and keep the position sizing small.  We are looking at IBM and Intel at fire sale prices among other names, but when there's strength, you have to sell into it and book a profit.

 

One of the hardest things is to be disciplined to know when to take profits/losses. 

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#191) On June 16, 2010 at 2:51 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I'll admit I did get carried away the beginning of this year and used too much size.  I threw caution in the wind and got careless/wreckless in the sizing that I bought so when the sh!t hit the fan in May, I was a little bit more overweight than I would have been had I exercised prudence.  Normally I am pretty responsible and sensible in my position sizing, but like I said I just got stupid/careless about it.

 

That was a big wakeup call for me.  My boss said one time at an internship I had that it is ok to make a mistake, however; it is not ok to make the same mistake twice.

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#192) On June 16, 2010 at 2:52 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I have not checked the volume either, but if it is light it is probably continued short covering. 

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#193) On June 16, 2010 at 3:11 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Well its the last hour...lets see how this plays out.

Euro weakened all day and stayed weak, but only by a little.  I dont' foresee it ripping up or down.  We'll see tho.

 

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#194) On June 16, 2010 at 3:51 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

BP plc cut the dividend.  Sucks for anyone holding on to the stock for more than a trading tool.

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#195) On June 16, 2010 at 3:56 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea I saw that, yet the stock goes up 3-4%?  I don't understand this...maybe the 20bn they set aside for the spill is scene as they can afford to pay the damages?  All speculation at this point.

My shorts are holding a bit better but in the red slightly, gonna keep them small and see what happens tomorrow.  What's on tap for tomorrow besides employment?

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#196) On June 16, 2010 at 4:02 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

unemployment initial claims and consumer price index (CPI) which is typically an indicator for inflation.  we don't have to worry about that.  If anything the US is in a deflationary state at the moment.

 

the reason why BP is rallying is because of the 20 billion escrow fund set aside and also it has been priced into the stock already (the dividend cut).

 

it is the same reason why the market rallied when GM went bankrupt.  It was already priced in.

 

Traders and investors do not like uncertainty, so because this is being done it gives more clarity.  Also cutting the dividend provides more capital for the spill which helps the financial condition for the company.  Sucks for anyone holding it for the dividend, however; I think we all knew it was coming anyway.

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#197) On June 16, 2010 at 4:10 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Well I placed very tight stops on my shorts.  I don't really expect much to happen tomorrow either, since we all know inflation is going to be low.  Although that in itself may give the bulls reason to buy, seems like anything these days is giving them a reason.

First time numbers I don't expect to fall unless they run out of benefits.  Then, friday is continuing unemployment.  Fun, fun!

Anyone of substance reporting earnings?

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#198) On June 16, 2010 at 4:40 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Tommorow is Kroger, Pier 1 Imports, J.M Smucker, Smithfield Foods.

 

Nothing really for Friday.

 

Not a lot that is compelling in terms of earnings.  FedEx got crushed like Best Buy did.  I hope a lot of companies don't guide lower for the year.

 

I've also had more difficulty trading the past 6 weeks than I have had in quite some time, so I am taking note of that to slow down. 

 

It seems in the short-term 1,100 is a floor in the S&P-500.  I don't doubt we can grind higher, could be a rewind of February again......keep ticking higher.

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#199) On June 16, 2010 at 4:53 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea, it sure looks as tho there is a definite tug of war going on right now between the bulls and bears.  The only thing that will get in the way of grinding higher is Spain or Portugal or UK debt problems coming in the news, and its brewing.

Nokia, FedEx, Best Buy all disappoint, yet we grind higher.  Interesting.  It feels like the market wants to go higher, but no one is willing to take that leap.

 

 

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#200) On June 16, 2010 at 5:44 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

My mom bought Transocean, Anadarko, and BP bonds.  Most are 2-3 years till expiration in a bond ladder.  Most yield around 7-8%. There is a decent amount of risk in them, but the bonds are debt and not equity.  That's kinda beyond me, I'm not an expert at bonds, but that's one way to put money to work outside of stocks and options.

 

North Korea could attack South Korea at any time. I think we are in the eye of the storm for the time being, but that's just me.

 

I have likewise been having difficulty trading lately so I am trying to be modest in my sizing.

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#201) On June 16, 2010 at 6:14 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

 

enlarge

 

Typically what happens when a stock breaks a downtrend or uptrend, traders look for what is called a 're-test' meaning another 'drive' at going up or down.  If it tries to do this on low volume, normally it will not work.  Take a look at the charts below:

 

 

enlarge

 

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#202) On June 16, 2010 at 6:20 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

 

enlarge

 

As you can see on VMWare (which is a very strong stock), every time it hit resistance it exploded on big volume.  Strong buyers came in to pick it up.  This is give conviction that a lot of people are interested and want to get in.

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#203) On June 16, 2010 at 6:31 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

BP plc had huge buying volume.  Dare I say, I think the bottom could be in around $29/share assuming something insane does not happen......................... (which could as they have screwed up just about everything that they have done though).

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#204) On June 16, 2010 at 7:28 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

 

enlarge

 

 

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Intel and IBM are both buys at their respective areas.  These are legitimate companies that you do not have to worry about doing stupid sh!t like BP plc or Goldman Sachs.  They both have decent dividends and have been paying them for awhile. Both have good cash positions.

 

IBM is getting ready to enter the smartphone business and Intel provides chips to Apple.  Also Intel's  major competitor is Advanced Micro Devices which is a crap company.  Also if there is a 'double dip recession', both are financially capable of getting through it (or at least better positioned than the majority of the companies out there).

 

Those are quality stocks to trade and also own for investments if you so choose to.

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#205) On June 16, 2010 at 7:56 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

 

enlarge

 

Apple looks bullish, but then again you can always buy the stock whereever and it seems to eternally always go up.

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#206) On June 16, 2010 at 8:25 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I have a feeling we are going to be moving higher for a while...I'm going to use the recent pessimism to exit most if not all my short positions 

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#207) On June 17, 2010 at 8:40 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Apple upgraded.  That will be enough to lift the market.  Going to trade Apple and BP today.  Short-term the market is probably going to grind higher. A lot of short covering into the end of the quarter and mutual funds window dressing end of quarter.

 

When someone or a fund short sells a stock, they are responsible for providing that dividend if it pays one.  So if I sell short AT&T or Verizon or some high paying dividend, I am responsible for the dividend b/c I shorted it (assuming I sold it short and not short through options or whatever).

 

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#208) On June 17, 2010 at 8:51 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

First time jobless claim rising.  Tread carefully.  Today may be a green to red (i.e. positive to negative).  Plus we've had many successive up days.  Futures are up .56% which can be easily brought down.  Gold is up $15.  Apple is only up .5% after the upgrade.

Today may slump and get faded, we shall see.

 

Going to pass on Apple, not today.  Same with BP. Not trading.

I'd hold on to your short position today as it may pay off.

 

 

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#209) On June 17, 2010 at 8:56 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

yea, i was just watching the market plummet off the employment numbers, wow...I was nearly stopped out right as the numbers came out, then my shorts sky rocketed.

The market futures are going back up.  Bulls really trying hard to go higher.

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#210) On June 17, 2010 at 8:58 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Euro very strong, so I'm torn whether the market will rip up, or not.

Spanish bond sale was successful, duh....they are basically guaranteeing their debt...obviously people are going to buy it.

 

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#211) On June 17, 2010 at 9:08 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

If you have a profit on your short position I'd take it.  If not, since you've been holding on to it lately the market could potentially roll over from profit taking going into the weekend.  Tough to be long or short.

 

Difficult trading all around.

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#212) On June 17, 2010 at 9:12 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Kroger's net income was down.  JM Smucker's was up.  Pier 1 made money, not a lot that's compelling.

 

Typically for any gap up or down, you wait at the most 1 hour to see if it gets filled.  If the gap holds within the first hour then typically it continues to whatever direction it is in.

 

I'd use that strategy for your short position.  If the market does not slump within the first hour, re-think it.  Again it could happen at the end of the day.  Just a lot of noise right now. 

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#213) On June 17, 2010 at 9:15 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

market continues higher...its nuts, nothing can shake it these days lol....6 days in a row we are up.

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#214) On June 17, 2010 at 9:16 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I'm about to be stopped out again.

Down another $250...lovely.

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#215) On June 17, 2010 at 10:10 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

manufacturing came back weak.  I think it is best if you do not trade for awhile and take a step back.  I've been doing the same as well.

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#216) On June 17, 2010 at 10:14 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

wait a minute, looks like the market does have weakness after all, lol.

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#217) On June 17, 2010 at 10:39 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

haha, I hope we have another flash crash part #2 of -1,000 points.  I'm glad I got out in the strength the past few days.

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#218) On June 17, 2010 at 10:51 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Whoa, what the hell happened??  I just got to work and looked, the market is tanking.  Very interesting.

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#219) On June 17, 2010 at 10:57 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

manufacturing data sucked.  I did not see this on the docket for today, I must have overlooked its announcement.  At any rate,  slower growth being see in the second half of the year...no surprise.

 

there's still a lot of very bad fundamental news out there.  I'm not a perma-bear, but when the market plunges 16% then rebounds for 6 straight days, that's not a 'new bull market' to me.  I mean the volume has been drying up and it has been a short covering rally.  Now there are no more bidders.

 

If we close below the 200 day moving average look out below.  This is also why I have been so prudent getting long b/c everyone rushes to the exits faster than they get in.

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#220) On June 17, 2010 at 10:59 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Wow, a reading of 8 compared to an expected 21??  Sheesh...I was down $250, now I'm up $80 lol.

I think tomorrow's employment number is going to come out bad, so gonna let it ride.  Euro is weakening from it's highs.  Lets see how it works out :)

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#221) On June 17, 2010 at 11:00 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

200 day moving average: 1,109.54

 

we are already below it, a close below would be a mess.  phew again im glad I got out of my longs into the strength earlier.  I knew I wasn't going crazy in my analysis.

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#222) On June 17, 2010 at 11:04 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

No surprise.  The fundamentals are still rotting.  The hardest thing is to ignore the noise by the media and everyone else and stick to your convictions and analysis whatever it may be.

 

The herd isn't always right even though they think they are.

New bull market ? I had to take the opportunity to get out of my longs....that was a gift that past several days.. now I am vindicated, lol.

 

You should give yourself credit too, you thought the market was weak and it really was all along.  I'm not even short, I got squeezed out earlier, and you still stayed short.  Nice job.

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#223) On June 17, 2010 at 11:19 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I dunno if it was a nice job, nerves of steel, or just giving into my conviction and letting the chips fall where they may.   A little luck too.

Market is coming back tho.  S&P was down 8, now down 4-5 so it's halved its losses.  The Euro is still up.  

I'm never too happy or sad in this market.  It can all evaporate within 20 mins lol.

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#224) On June 17, 2010 at 11:36 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Looks like the bulls are coming back...we are below the 200 day moving average...but this is meaningless to me.

The Euro is still strong, that's bothering me so I'm not completely sold on this being a down day.

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#225) On June 17, 2010 at 1:44 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Just goes to show you how market sentiment is everything.

If these numbers came out 2 weeks ago, we'd see 100-200pt drop right now.

It's maddening.

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#226) On June 17, 2010 at 1:59 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Bulls are back in full force.  This is is pretty incredible.

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#227) On June 17, 2010 at 2:26 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

impressive push higher.  Ah, go figure.  No power to the downside.  I saw the Spanish bond auction went reasonably well.

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#228) On June 17, 2010 at 2:29 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I think this mini rally we are going through is going to fade, but who knows.
The fundamentals are rotting all around us
1) Today philly manufacturing index came in at 8 vs an estimated 21 on their scale.  Ouch!
2) 12,000+ initial jobless claims this week, likely this will add to the bad employment news tomorrow...and just wait til the census is over.
3) spending down 1.2% for last month
4) fedex has bad forecast, Best Buy disappoints on earnings, but winnebego has great earnings (wtf?)..I dunno what to think about this.
5)  spain able to sell its debt to pay off their maturing bonds in July, but the interest rates they sold them at are real high, and merely kicks the can down the street...and of course the private sector will buy the bonds, if Spain can't repay, they'll get a bailout from the IMF/EU fund, its a win/win for investors (moral hazard) -  no risk!
6) CPI came in lower, so we are still fighting deflation, not good for stocks good for bonds.

The only reason the market isn't triple digits in the red today is the euro is up.  This should be a triple digit decline, but market sentiment is positive right now, just shows you how much that makes the market.  2 weeks ago, we'd be down 100-200 points.

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#229) On June 17, 2010 at 2:44 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Oh did I mention housing is abysmal at best?  And that's being nice.

 

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#230) On June 17, 2010 at 2:54 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

lol, looks like the market is now turning down.  honestly when there's this much flip-flop it's gambling, IMO.  I agree with you, I think right now this mini rally is a short covering bounce, but the thing to do is watch the action.

 

the corporate guidance lower is problematic as well.  Of course we have only heard from a few companies, but to kick off earnings season like that is not good.

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#231) On June 17, 2010 at 3:02 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I have a feeling we are going to see a push up, then back down...the bulls really are trying to push this up (for whatever reason, I don't see it though)...but the bears are outnumbering them by a bit.

I think we are going to see another bad day tomorrow.

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#232) On June 17, 2010 at 3:29 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Last half hour...hmm...what will it have in store for us?  lol!

posting on this blog makes my work day go a lot faster :)

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#233) On June 17, 2010 at 3:34 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

There just went the bulls attempted push, went from 60pt down on Dow/7pts down on S&P and cut it in half...whose gonna win?

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#234) On June 17, 2010 at 3:48 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Wow bulls are just taking over...this may actually end up higher!!  holy $hit

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#235) On June 17, 2010 at 3:54 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

So I step away from the computer to go to the bathroom, and we are now positive?????

HAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAAHAHA.....this is the only thing I can do is laugh at this point.  Little black boxes working over time.  I mean within 5 minutes we went from 60-70 down to 10-20pts up.....freaking hilarious.

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#236) On June 17, 2010 at 4:34 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jobless-claims-manufacturing-apf-1070019902.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

"Losing stocks were ahead of gainers by about 3 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 845 million shares."

Wow, that's low volume. There is absolutely no conviction to this bullish move.

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#237) On June 18, 2010 at 8:29 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Well euro weak by a bit, nothing compelling, futures are weakening a bit....I think what will tip this titanic is bad employment, we'll see.

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#238) On June 18, 2010 at 10:00 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

very uneventful day which i kinda anticipated.  options expiration day does not do much anymore.  Fed day where they decide the interest rates also is not what it used to be.  Things have changed from the old normal.

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#239) On June 21, 2010 at 5:43 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

wow, look at these futrures this morning off the yuan news?  intereseting.

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#240) On June 21, 2010 at 8:41 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

yuan revaluation would be problematic for the US in particular because we are a large importer of their products.  So if their yuan is more expensive, it would theoretically take more USD to buy more Chinese products.

 

 

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#241) On June 21, 2010 at 9:10 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

If you are long this continued strength is an opportunity to lighten up.

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#242) On June 21, 2010 at 9:30 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I am adding to macro short positions small in DAL, LCC, and AMR.  These are going to be small positions as a short, but I plan on keeping them on and not getting squeezed out.  If crude oil keeps going higher it will press against their margins.  Most of them are only 25-30% hedged in energy.

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#243) On June 21, 2010 at 10:07 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I increased my short position as well.

Glad I was cash lol.

We'll see if we're right...I'm going to say this rally grinds into earnings, and then tapers off.

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#244) On June 21, 2010 at 11:20 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I still think there's a small grind.  With all the b.s. going on with the drilling and BP, there is going to be an artificial pinch in crude oil.  Plus if there is a massive hurricane, energy prices will go through the roof.

 

The airlines in general have been a pretty sh!tty industry.  Everything seems to always go wrong for them and the only reason why they've went up lately is b/c of low energy prices which I do not expect to last for very long.

 

I think there will be a small grind.  If you stay short expect to sit in some pain.  Unemployment is up to bat.

 

Personally I believe we are in the eye of the storm.  This rally has been a gift to lighten up on longs as the market absolutely plunged in May.

 

I think second half of the year will be rough.  The US may not experience a double dip, but I think Europe has a high probability of doing so.

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#245) On June 21, 2010 at 11:31 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I agree, Europe's pain is just starting...but if they keep the austerity in place, over time, the euro will most likely strengthen.

I've got 2 decent sized position in my shorts.  One is making me money (I bought this morning in extended trading when S&P futures were 16+) 

I sold my UPRO this morning at this same time and made a bit.  

I'm taking what the market is giving me.  I'm not getting greedy anymore :)

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#246) On June 21, 2010 at 1:34 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

because the market is so volatile, you have to take smaller trades.  Not just you, but I know a few people who watch their gains turn into losses.  Case in point, this guy I know bought Freddie and Fannie right after they got taken over or something thereafter.  He bought each of them for about 50 cents or so.  Last summer they ripped to the upside and were as high as $2.00 or so.  He more than doubled his money, but didn't sell because he thought it would go higher.  Now after the delisting of FRE/FNM he's never going to get his money back.

 

He also has not sold Ford which will not stay as high as it currently is at the moment.  He got in at $4.00 and he's predictable enough that I'm sure he'll watch that one go all the way back down as well.

 

Hopefully you are net positive for the year.  If you are negative or in the red for the year, you seem to have refined your strategy and learn along the way which is part of the learning experience and will make for a better experience moving forward.

 

Personally, I hate quick day trade.  I prefer longer, more macro moves, but with the whipsaws, I am forced to change my approach despite not wanting to.  It's just about adapting to the current situation.

 

I remember the market was falling 1-2% just last month which people forgot about.  This rally is good because it gives people to deleverage themselves and hopefully not chase it.

 

I think gold gets to $1,300-$1,400 by this year.

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#247) On June 21, 2010 at 2:04 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I'd love a flash crash at this point.  Like Greece announcing bankruptcy right now.  That'd be great to be able to watch it comfortably from the sidelines.

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#248) On June 21, 2010 at 2:11 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I would LOVE a flash crash, my shorts would love it too.

I am watching this dip in gold and going to follow it through to tomorrow. 

I want it to be around $1220 or so before I start easing into gold.

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#249) On June 21, 2010 at 2:19 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Sold my Citi shares to break even, had been losing for a long time :)   Very small stake in it...but would ratehr clear them off my book.

 

I am going to watch gold for a while, and depending where the DOW/S&P is (if it's in the lower range vs higher range like now) and if the circumstances are right, load up pretty good with gold.  I have a feeling with gold and how its acting,  with dips, gold goes up, with crisises, gold goes up...and even with the market going up, gold is going up with pull backs here and there.

Sounds like gold, your chances of losing are pretty slim.

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#250) On June 21, 2010 at 2:36 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Looks as though the nasdaq surged the greatest, and has declined the greatest.

If that's any indication of how this rally is going, we may see it stall this week.

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#251) On June 21, 2010 at 3:07 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Looks like the rally is running out of steam.  Gold is like Apple.  It has been strong with the market overall and an opportunity to buy on any weakness.

 

The most troubling thing is that gold is also surging WITH the market.....typically they trade reverse....so someone is on the wrong side of the trade......

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#252) On June 21, 2010 at 3:20 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

rug pull.

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#253) On June 21, 2010 at 3:29 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

sold SPXU when S&P went down by 6 points.  I bought it this morning when it was positive by 16 points.  Good trade, took my account from down $350 to up $130.

Taking what the market is giving me again.

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#254) On June 21, 2010 at 3:32 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I swung into UPRO to see if the bulls take the market back up...it's happened almost every damn day for the past 2 weeks.   It's not looking that great, but bought it when S&P went down by 7+ points...so far, I am up.

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#255) On June 21, 2010 at 3:41 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

good keeping it nimble.  I have been unwinding a lot of macro longs from wayyyy long ago, like pre-lehman that are finally getting a profit.

 

We added some positions into Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC bonds.  They are yielding around 4% or so and mature in 5 years.

 

Just not feeling the market overall and I think the US will be grasping for straws to continue the stimulus-induced growth.

 

Airlines are working for me.  Those are more macro though.  That was a gift.  They have been pumping airlines lately on CNBC.  Airlines never have or ever will be legitimate 'investments'.  They chronically are bankrupt and never can make any money.  Plus crude oil is inching up so they are going to get screwed on higher fuel prices.

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#256) On June 21, 2010 at 3:59 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Ah so you're shorting the airlines then?

I'm going to look at tech stocks here shortly if a big pullback happens.

UPRO serving me well.  The bulls are coming back as I expected to end the day...doesn't look like we'll end in the green, but I'll hold on to this stock through the night, its a small enuf stake.

I'm just going to play both sides of the fence, and sell into strength and weakness.  I am not feeling the market either, so i'm going to take baby steps and attempt to regain some of my big losses the past two weeks.  Today was a good start.

 

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#257) On June 21, 2010 at 4:44 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I've been eyeing up TBT something fierce....I may try to dabble with that here if there's a huge dip.

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#258) On June 21, 2010 at 5:26 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I've also been eyeing TBT for awhile.  I think it made sense back during this mini rally to the top, but overall I don't think there is a trade yet.  The rates in the US really have to rise in order to get a lift for TBT.  I think right now there is still plenty of demand from US Treasury bonds that the yields will stay low for awhile, and probably will stay that way until we get a legitimate recovery.

 

As long as there's issues out there or any hint of a crash, people run back into treasury bonds again, so it really has not been compelling.

 

I'm short Delta Airlines (DAL), US Airways (LCC), and AMR Corporation (AMR).

 

Delta and AMR corporation have about 25-30% of their fuel hedged.  US Airways does not have any of their fuel hedged and buys the spot price.  I'm very very surprised that US Airways does not hedge, but I guess they do not.  That's risky.

 

#1 issue for airlines is fuel costs, when fuel goes up they lose money.  also they have union contracts and other labor related issues so that makes it difficult for them.  Airlines never make any money because of these issues.  Then there are exogenous events like hurricanes, blizzards, terrorist attacks, etc......

 

 

 

 

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#259) On June 22, 2010 at 10:17 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Existing home sales dropped 2.2%.  Analyst expected a 5.5% increase.

 

To call that a 'miss' is a big under statement.  The tax credit needs to be extended b/c the housing market is still slumped over.

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#260) On June 22, 2010 at 11:42 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yet the market goes up...how funny is that??  Makes no sense to me.  But I'm done fighting it...I went into UPRO yesterday.

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#261) On June 22, 2010 at 11:43 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

What's up with Sprint?  It went down considerably.

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#262) On June 22, 2010 at 1:31 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

i haven't checked sprint, but it may have gotten sold off on the Apple news since Apple is still with AT&T.

 

Market is putting in a head and shoulders pattern.  Today we may actually see the market pressed considerably lower.

 

It has been choppy lately, so I have not been doing a lot.  The airlines are down over 2% all around.

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#263) On June 22, 2010 at 1:36 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

The credit default markets are pricing in a 23-24% chance California and Illinois will default on debt within the next 5 years.

 

I do not expect California to sign into legislature a new budget bill by July 1 which is when all states are required to have one.  They almost never have a budget drafted by the required time and are facing a 17 billion or so deficit.

 

California is essentially insolvent.  The fact that they can carry even a 'A' credit rating after issuing IOUs last year is pretty amazing.  At least BP has oil and cash, but California has nothing.

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#264) On June 22, 2010 at 1:39 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

We picked up some more Goldman Sachs bonds yielding over 3% maturity in 3 years.

 

The US Government will go insolvent before Goldman ever does.

 

Our macro portfolio is about 50% fixed income assets (bonds, cds, etc....) 20% stocks, and 30% cash at the moment.

 

We will probably add another 10-15% to fixed income and take off another 5% off of stocks at some point.

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#265) On June 22, 2010 at 2:08 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

There's more housing data again tommorow.  The market may continue its push downwards.  The earnings and guidance has been absolute sh!t.  Adobe is after the bell.

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#266) On June 22, 2010 at 3:00 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Market is punishing all chasers.  Pants just got pulled down.  I get to enjoy this safely on the side.

 

The fundamentals continue to look ugly and I said earlier this mini rally was a gift to lighten up.

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#267) On June 22, 2010 at 3:35 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Figures, I had about 10K in shorts yesterday, and closed them for about $400.  This was the day I have been waiting on now for 2 weeks.  Bleh!

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#268) On June 22, 2010 at 3:39 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

haha, that's how it always works.

 

I wouldn't chase it, but tommorow may be a down day again if the housing data comes weak.  Still short airlines.  If tommorow is another blow-off to the downside, I may cover.  They are small positions anyway.  I think the macro picture is bearish for the airlines industry, despite what the analyst say.

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#269) On June 22, 2010 at 3:49 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I think I'll just sit back and wait, I sold off my UPRO for a loss unfortunately.  I wasn't near a computer when the S&P was up 5 points for a nice little $100 gain.  Just the opposite, I lost about $70 but whatever. 

Damn that's aggrivating!  I would have made like $400-$500 today which I really needed lol.  Oh well.  Glad I sold off almost everything in every account I have minus a few small positions.

The question then becomes, when is it time to start going long again lol.

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#270) On June 22, 2010 at 4:02 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

not sure about the long.  I'm not looking to dive in anytime soon.  The market is a mess right now and it really has not defined a trend.  As much as I'd like to believe to the upside, there is a lot of bearish news and I think a lot of the positive news was priced in all last year, and some this year.  I don't mind being long the S&P-500 index, but right now I am staying away from companies individually.  The index is the primary benchmark anyways, so just cost averaging in is what we have done in the past.

 

 

This market goes to show you that you should not pay up for anything.  The only time to buy is in the hole at a deep discount.  After the Q2 earnings I may look again, but right now I'm not doing a lot.  There has just been too much risk right now with the Europe garbage, housing data, unemployment, etc......I'd rather just forgo the upside unless things get insanely cheap.  I mean reallyyyyyyyy cheap.

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#271) On June 22, 2010 at 4:08 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Intel only need a bit more to go for your $20 price target :)

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#272) On June 22, 2010 at 4:16 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

yep.  I've been following that one.  I saw they settled the anti-trust suit.  Under $20 is a decent buy plus they have a stronger market presence vs. their competitors.  Smart phones on the other hand is a very crowded market and everyone is trying to get in (i.e. RIMM, android, apple, etc).

 

Also I think tech is the best sector in terms of being defensive and if there is a double dip recession.  They have lots of cash, little debt, and high growth prospectives.

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#273) On June 22, 2010 at 4:29 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

If we go down another day like today, I'm stalking GOOG, MSFT, VMW, INTC, and ABX

We'll see how it goes.  I'm so liquid I'm itching to play!

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#274) On June 22, 2010 at 5:13 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Wait till you see some heavy pressing into some of these companies.  I'm not sure about ABX, that's more of your area, but the other companies are at least fundamentally sound if the floor gives out.

 

Out of those, I only INTC as they have a more competitive moat and nice dividend.  That's the only one that is appealing to me right now.

 

MSFT, GOOG have both been weak.  MSFT has also moved sideways and I think has a small percentage dividend to INTC.  GOOG/VMW does not pay a dividend. ABX is contingent on gold prices which works b/c gold is up.

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#275) On June 22, 2010 at 5:26 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Looks like CNBC is talking about INTC right now.  They must have read my post earlier.  Looks like the cat is out of the bag.  Now ppl will rush in and buy it, lol.

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#276) On June 22, 2010 at 6:05 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

haha, well ppl must have been reading my short posts, because dammit!    I'm still salty about not holding on for 1 more damn day!

ugh.

I may open up one tomorrow, I think the housing numbers are going to be horrible, and I think the jobs numbers are going to follow.

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#277) On June 22, 2010 at 7:29 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

A manager I talked to today had the S&P-500 futures short which expired last Friday on quad witching so he missed out.  I closed out my short positions awhile back though.  If I had to guess I'd say the week is going to be a push lower.  There's a lot of potential data that can push the market lower.

If you want to try it short that's fine.  It is anticipating a downward continued move which could easily happen depending on the data this week.  The market is holding its upper range by a tad.  I think if it closes lower than 1,082-1,080 then the downtrend will continue.  The volume was light (again) which is interesting because there was not as much selling as you'd expect.

 

If there is a close below 1,082 then the selling pressure will most likely continue.

 

I will just hold what I have right now.  The market has not given me much when I anticipate too early so right now I'm just waiting for a more compelling composure.

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#278) On June 23, 2010 at 10:50 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Euro weak, housing abismal, I opened my shorts this morning and heavy....and I'm making out almost 2% not bad.

I may sell 1/2 today and ride 1/2 into tomorrow's unemployment reading.

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#279) On June 23, 2010 at 10:52 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

 if we go green, I'll scream.

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#280) On June 23, 2010 at 12:11 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Hmm...market not really reacting from today's problems.  I'm shocked we aren't seeing another day like we did yesterday.

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#281) On June 23, 2010 at 12:51 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

 This market is a bad dream.

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#282) On June 23, 2010 at 1:29 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

How this market hasn't been ripped a new one is beyond me.  There has been almost no good news over the past week or so.  Every fundamental is breaking down.

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#283) On June 23, 2010 at 2:33 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Really?   Really?  The market is surging?  That's really happening?

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#284) On June 24, 2010 at 8:32 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

yesterday was a really bad day to have traded unless you traded specific stocks. Even then there was not a lot of blockbuster trades. Very choppy and sideways day.

 

We just bought more Goldman Sachs bonds, that's about it.  If there's more strength, I may add short specific stocks, but it looks like we are opening down.

 

Yesterday was a picture perfect day to have lost money.  The quick day trades are done for now.  You'd be better off picking a direction and staying in it for awhile

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#285) On June 24, 2010 at 8:37 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Watching BP plc as a potential short.  If it breaks through the lows there will most likely be some follow through and a lot of stops will be hit.

There have not been any good trades.  Unless BP breaksdown and is a good short, I'll probably pass again.  Not buying anymore bonds right now either.

 

The housing data was an absolute disaster.  I think everyone knows that a double dip is coming.  Again, I got out of alot of my longs last week when everyone was pumping.

 

I still think the ultimate bottom is 950-1000 in the S&P-500

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#286) On June 24, 2010 at 9:50 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

 I'm in total agreement because I jsut don't see anything I want to buy right now.

I sold off my higher short shares today, which are about 1/2 of them.  I have 1/2 left.  

The fundamentals are rotting all around us, there is absolutely nothing I want to buy.  I am picking my direction and it's down.

I was watching Cramer last night, he is a total moron if you ask me.  He said the housing numbers were not a surprise, and to buy house builder stocks since the news was already priced in. Granted, he's right, but do you really see the builders making many more homes this year?  He's really dangerous for a lot of retail investors that actually want to get into this market.

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#287) On June 24, 2010 at 10:00 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Jim Cramer has been basically a thorn in the financial industry's side. I think he should be investigated by the SEC, IMO.  He's always pumping stupid recommendations and there is a long track record of him being wrong:

 

1.  He had a 'winners of the new world' speech where all the tech companies he picked back in 200 went bankrupt.

 

2.  Bear Stearns and Wachovia pump n' dump

 

3.  Said the ECB was going to intervene overnight (which did not happen.  This was not as publicized unless you were looking for it).

4.  All all your stocks after Lehman Brothers and stay out of the market for 5 years.

 

CNBC and other idiots are still pumping airlines.  I just saw someone post more bullish material on airlines.  I added Caterpillar short small as well.  The stock is priced in extremely optimistic which I do not agree with.

 

Homebuilder's recommendation is also a stupid recommendation.  There is still a large glut of EXISTING houses that are not selling.  Why would homebuilders keep building ?

 

Just stupid people giving stupid advice.  I feel sorry for people who do not know any better, but at the same time it's their problem for listening to them in the first place.  I think after the 2008 debacle it is very clear people need to take control of their own finances and not let others do it for them.  It's bad enough financial advisors lost their clients' money, however, the fact that they were paid MANAGEMENT FEES to do that is just insult to injury.

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#288) On June 24, 2010 at 10:04 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Sold the other half when s&P hit -12+

Nice $600 profit today.

 

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#289) On June 24, 2010 at 10:07 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Swung into UPRO when S&P hit 11-12 to the down side.

Lets see if I'm right and all the weak traders sold off, and now the buyers are coming in.  I expect at least 1/2 of the losses to be wiped away.

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#290) On June 24, 2010 at 10:15 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I'm not sure if there will be a bounce back.  There may actually be follow through to the downside this time.  The weakness has been settling in........I still have the airlines as a short.

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#291) On June 24, 2010 at 10:31 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yes I agree, I've been pouring the time into learning the market over the past 1.5-2 years and its been a bumpy ride. What I've learned through you though is allow yourself to be wrong, and take what the market is giving you.  You've definitely taught me a lot :)

I'm also looking at gold again, it's holding up pretty well.  I want it to dip, but it's just not giving.  If it gets to 1220 range, I may dabble.

 

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#292) On June 24, 2010 at 10:44 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Wow this isn't giving..like you said...too much negative news finally caught up with the market.

I may just exit all together.  It was worth a shot.  I'll give it a bit more time, and if it isn't below -8 in the S&P, gonna just give up on it.

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#293) On June 24, 2010 at 10:46 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Looks like the DJIA is putting in a bear flag.  Like picture perfect technical analysis bear flag.  I think we go much lower.

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#294) On June 24, 2010 at 10:47 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

bye bye.  Market pressing lower.

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#295) On June 24, 2010 at 11:23 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

well it plummetted fast, ouch....UPRO burned me...I can't leave it alone can I?  lol.

I picked my direction and its lower...never dreamed it would have pressed this low though.

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#296) On June 24, 2010 at 11:58 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Jeff Skilling gets a new trial ?  Wow.  Pure corruption.

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#297) On June 24, 2010 at 2:04 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Covered Delta Airlines short.  Decent trade.  Still have the others on.

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#298) On June 24, 2010 at 2:25 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I guess I sort of panicked selling UPRO cuz now I would have been up, and would have maintained all my winnings of the day + a bit with UPRO.  Boooo!  It's back and forth for me.  Was at $15800, up this morning to $16,400...not back down to $15800.

It's like i'm running in place haha.

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#299) On June 24, 2010 at 3:09 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

The market is too volatile and whipsaws a lot.  That's why I have not been as involved in it.  Personally, I don't think it is a good idea trying to skin out profits on the day to day movements.  The day trading strategy worked out pretty well several weeks ago, but now is the time to just hang tight for awhile.

 

I know a lot of people who have lately been flip flopping back and forth and have lost money.  The day trade isn't on anymore b/c there is too much volatility.

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#300) On June 24, 2010 at 3:13 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

If we press below 10,159 on the DJIA look out below.

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#301) On June 24, 2010 at 3:24 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Post #241 I said to lighten up on longs.

 

I feel bad for people who got suckered again into that mini rally.  Media is feeding them garbage that the rally was 'back on'.

 

A lot of people got the rug pulled out from under them by what has been unfolding the past few days.

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#302) On June 24, 2010 at 3:43 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

15 minutes till the close.  Brace yourself, it feels like there might be one more push lower.

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#303) On June 24, 2010 at 4:28 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

It did push lower..I've picked my direction, its lower, and I think its going much lower before it comes back up.

It's a shame I didn't stick to my conviction the entire week lol.

 

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#304) On June 25, 2010 at 10:38 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

well looks like we are going to be pretty even today.  Nothing really rocking the markets in the news.  I think the G20 summit will be on tap for this weekend and Obama will try to get Europe to spend, but I don't think that will happen.

Overall down trend I think is still intact.  A clear head and shoulders pattern is formed.

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#305) On June 25, 2010 at 1:55 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Lot of short covering right now trying to weed out the weaker shorts.

So funny how these high frequency trading machines work.  

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#306) On June 25, 2010 at 3:33 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Last half hour..looks like this one is going to remain green, but lets hope I'm wrong :)

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#307) On June 25, 2010 at 3:49 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Wow huge tug of war going on :)  T minus 12 MINUTES of more tug of war to go...who wins?

I don't really understand why the green day, maybe pent up buying and valuations look attractive at these lower levels...but unless we were at the lower end of the range, I don't get why any mass buying would occur.  We are in no man's land right now.

 

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#308) On June 25, 2010 at 11:44 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

The trading has been range bound for the past 3-4 weeks now.  I really hate trading the range, because when it resolves itself, you can easily find yourself on the wrong end.  The market is looking for direction, and the rest of earnings season is indicative of what will happen.  With the GDP being guided down you cannot be too optimistic about it.

 

I noticed that the storms are brewing up.  I'm still short the airlines, but they will continue to get hit when oil prices continue to spike more than they are already.  If the storms are really bad, it will create a really bad shortage in fuel.  Gas prices are already starting to rise indicative of strained energy supply.

 

If the market gets crushed monday I'll cover AMR Corporation (AMR), but keep US Airways on.

 

The airline industry was too easy of a short.  CNBC pumping the sh!t out of it,........that was a gift.  All the airlines have been losing 2-3% the past several days.  I got approx. 9% gain in Delta Airlines.

 

I'm up around 11% in both AMR and US Airways.  Monday will probably be a green to red (positive to negative) day.

 

Excitement after the G20 meeting, then slowly reality will set in.

 

Ultimately US Airways will suffer the worst from energy prices.  They are completely unhedged.  United Airlines, Delta, AMR, Southwest, and the others are semi hedge, but US Airways is not.

 

 

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#309) On June 26, 2010 at 9:02 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Good move on shorting the airlines. 

I'm staying steady with my shorts as well.

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#310) On June 26, 2010 at 5:31 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

So I've been looking for what's on tap for next week, and can't find it.  What reports, earnings, etc are we to see this coming week?  Anything of interest?

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#311) On June 27, 2010 at 9:09 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

unemployment is friday. i looked earlier but there isn't really much i am looking at.  every now and then there are alerts on my phone.  tommorow (Monday) will be a gap open green day.  It will probably finish lower, or barely green if that.

 

then selling will come into later on in the week in front of unemployment.  if the selling comes in I'll cover my airlines Wds or Thurs.  I think the unemployment will tick higher b/c there are no census workers anymore.

 

I'll add small SDS or short the S&P-500 on Monday for the gap up.  I think the risk vs reward is very good to the downside.

 

Depending on how Friday comes in and also the unemployment this week may really force the market to dive lower.  The action overall has been weak and unhealthy, a poor unemployment will just push it lower.

 

Oracle was decent for earnings, so was Jabil.  Technology is the sector to be in as a defensive long.  Intel and IBM.  Both decent companies to buy.  Other than that there is still a lot of pressure to the downside.

 

I think the commodity companies are foretelling the future ahead.  Plus all of a suddent instead of wreckless stimulus spending, now it is 'saving and cutting the deficit'.

 

Despite that being painful medicine, it needs to be done.  I think if they heavily cut back the spending, that will force us into a double dip depression.  Our economy has been on life support anyways and it is coming at a dangerous cost of uncontrollable debt being accumulated.

 

Unfortunately, when this recession (it's actually a depression, but I digress) occured in 2008, the Government propped up the economy as best as they could to spare a lot of pain by doing all this insane bailouts and stimuluses.

 

It will be painful for everyone, but the Government needs to pare down the deficit and cut back spending and let the recession run its course.  They have only been delaying the inevitable, but what do you expect when a country binges in debt for 6 years ?  The Government needs to think about the sake of the country long-term or else the US will end up like Greece or Japan.

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#312) On June 28, 2010 at 11:42 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I'm not sure why we are going up, but oh well, such is life.

 

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#313) On June 28, 2010 at 1:17 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

market rolling over.

Euro is real weak.

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#314) On June 29, 2010 at 7:43 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

It's going to be ugly today, ouch.

 

Euro starting to really dive again.  1.21 now.

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#315) On June 29, 2010 at 9:04 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

yep.  I bought SDS yesterday, going to sell it into the open.  Going to cover both my airlines positions. They probably have a 12-13% gain depending on where the market opens.

 

Still short Caterpillar.  Keeping that one on.  The market looks like it may finally commit to direction this time.  I don't think 1,050-1,040 will hold this time.

 

Fortunately I exited my longs earlier and put on short positions so it is business as usual.  This was just a matter of time before this happened.  Light volume+poor earnings+poor economic data=disaster.

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#316) On June 29, 2010 at 9:13 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I hate shorting, but when you pin it correctly you can make very good money in an extremely short period of time.

I made quite a bit of money from my airlines positions and also this SDS which is leveraged to the downside.  This has been a very, very good week where everything lined up perfectly.

 

I predicted Monday (6/28/10) in post #311.  Gap up green, then close lower.

 

I put on my short positions then didn't even look at the market for the rest of the day b/c I had meetings.  lol

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#317) On June 29, 2010 at 9:55 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Hi Mr. Rug.  Meet Mr. Pull here.

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#318) On June 29, 2010 at 10:25 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

lol, holy crap, this was a lot worse than I thought..I just got to work from the gym....I saw the futures when I woke up, wow...just wow

I'm going to pare back my shorts.  I made $1700 today. :)   I was in SPXU (3x bear) about $20K.  

The market is BLEEEEEEDING red...wow.

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#319) On June 29, 2010 at 10:41 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Caterpillar is down over 5% just today.  I took off my airlines, Caterpillar, and SDS.  All those trades combined is approx. $15k

 

When the market falls, it falls very, very fast.  Sucks for anyone long.

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#320) On June 29, 2010 at 10:42 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I wouldn't count on support in the S&P-500 to hold 1,040 this time.  I think this may be the time where support breaks to the downside.

 

My target all along in the S&P-500 has been 950-1,000

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#321) On June 29, 2010 at 11:09 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Took off 1/2 of my SPXU to log in a $900 gain.

I needed that badly.  I'm holding on to the other half.

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#322) On June 29, 2010 at 11:12 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

The bulls are fighting back.  Hilarious if you ask me. Who is buying in this market??  

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#323) On June 29, 2010 at 11:21 AM, outoffocus (23.24) wrote:

The "buy the dips" ppl are buying.

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#324) On June 29, 2010 at 11:27 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I mean I'm tempted to pick up some AAPL but it's still too high...I need it in the 230-240 range for me to even consider buying.

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#325) On June 29, 2010 at 11:32 AM, Momentum21 (50.12) wrote:

this might be your last shot at Sprint... : )

the market moves in mysterious ways...

 

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#326) On June 29, 2010 at 11:38 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

"last shot at sprint"

So you're bullish to sprint?

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#327) On June 29, 2010 at 11:55 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I'm not buying anything right now esp. with unemployment coming this Friday.  I'll let someone else lose money. 

 

If you want to buy Sprint go ahead.  I'm not interested.

 

I won't trade long or short any stocks for the rest of the week.  Expect the volume to be thin in anticipation of the weekend. 

The trade was yesterday on the gap up then shorting it and shorting the airlines 2 weeks ago when CNBC was pump n' dumping them.

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#328) On June 29, 2010 at 1:46 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Closed the rest of my shorts when S&P hit -32ish.

I'm all cash.

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#329) On June 29, 2010 at 1:56 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I don't think the downside is done yet.  There's still a lot of pressure and the unemployment number can easily push the market down another 1-1.5%.

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#330) On June 29, 2010 at 2:00 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Thank goodness for buy and hold investors.  They are stabilizing the falling market at the moment.  If they managed risk correctly we'd have a much more severe decline.

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#331) On June 29, 2010 at 2:32 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea, we'll see how unemployment goes.

Very good 2 weeks for me :)   Made almost 15% all on shorting.  I'm still down about 8-10%, but that can be made back pretty quickly so I'm not too concerned.

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#332) On June 29, 2010 at 2:36 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

shorting is more difficult b/c the moves are very fast, so you have little room for error to get it right vs. being long.  But if you do get a short set up correct, it is extremely profitable in a very short period of time.

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#333) On June 29, 2010 at 3:06 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea well had I held my shorts through last week and this week, I'd be up 20% on 20K lol   Oh well, I got a good chunk of that, and like you said, never goign to call the top or bottom, just make sure you get the meat of the move, and I certainly did that.

I'm dabbling in VMW, MSFT, IAG, S

 

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#334) On June 29, 2010 at 3:07 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I think I caught their bottoms for the day, already up on many of them...it just remains to be seen if we get a complete collapse, which I'm not convinced of....and I bought into companies that have crushed their earnings consistantly.

I'm gonna try to hold these through earnings unless we totally melt down and see how it works out lol...wish me luck.

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#335) On June 29, 2010 at 3:24 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Everyone and their mother just hit the sell button just now lol!  Wow!

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#336) On June 29, 2010 at 3:47 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Good luck.  You are on your own on that one.  No way I'd get long in front of unemployment numbers after the price action of today.

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#337) On June 29, 2010 at 3:52 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

1,040 isn't holding anymore on the S&P-500 and despite the fact that there is 10 minutes left, I expect the market to close under.

 

Anticipate more pain tommorow. This is extremely, extremely bearish technical price action.  There is nothing that would even remotely warrent getting long.

 

I'm in cash, bonds, and CDs.

 

The equity positions we have in our macro account is very small after heavily reducing the past several weeks.

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#338) On June 29, 2010 at 3:56 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Thanks **gulp**

I've been looking to get into VMW for a while, Sprint was kind of a spec play so will be lookign to dump that if I get like 2-3% gain...msft is beaten to piss...which I don't understand.

Still 30% cash as of now.

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#339) On June 29, 2010 at 4:05 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

A lot of the hot stocks like VMW, SNDK, and Apple were all due for a pull back because they have been on fire for so long.

 

Yeah, I dunno.  If you are correct then there is a lot of upside, but I personally do not feel comfortable buying at this point.  I hope you are right though.

 

I suppose if the unemployment number is an insanely good then the market will go up on it, but that type of trading is beyond my own risk tolerance.

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#340) On June 29, 2010 at 9:21 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I have a feeling we going to get a bounce back tomorrow.  I think i'll sell into the strength.  I'm getting uneasy, u're making me paranoid :)

What you thinking?   

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#341) On June 30, 2010 at 6:54 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Looks as though I was right...for now :)

Futures up, but lots of data coming today that could trip this up in a hurry.

Come on bulls!  I'm rooting for you now!

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#342) On June 30, 2010 at 8:42 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

I'm not sure to be honest. I don't see anything compelling at the moment.  I'll get long when the S&P-500 really blows off and is deep in the hole, but I'm not going to pay up for anything right now.

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#343) On June 30, 2010 at 10:18 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Got stopped out of VMW with tight stop, bleh.

Sprint sold for a $150 gain to offset VMW loss. Sold at$3.39

Holding small stake in MSFT, its holding up nicely.  I think I've got that one close to the bottom.

Bought SPXU when S&P hit around +5, up slightly in that.  I think the ADP numbers are prelude to a pretty bad employment number that is coming tomorrow and Friday.

Wish me luck.

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#344) On June 30, 2010 at 10:50 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

the stock market is acting like an injured animal that has not died yet.  it seems struggling and moving, but it is clear where things are heading.

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#345) On June 30, 2010 at 10:57 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

In the next few days if we close under 1,040 there will be a lot of stops hit and probably forced liquidation for margin.  If that happens nothing will be safe including gold which has been getting pressured lately.

 

They will sell profitably positions to increase liquidity like Apple and gold.

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#346) On June 30, 2010 at 11:07 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I'll be on the look out for all of this.

I agree, you'd think we'd be up majorly on the European banks news however I think focus is shifting to the USA now and its problems.  A lot of the municiple issues, employment problems, etc are goign to start making more headlines.  The oil spill doesn't help.

I guess we'll see how it pans out.

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#347) On June 30, 2010 at 2:09 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Sold MSFT for about a 2% gain.  Not taking chances here.

Keeping shorts on.  I think the employment will be ugly.

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#348) On June 30, 2010 at 2:26 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Market rolling over...the tug of war going into the close will be interesting.  If we close below 1040, that will be pretty bad for the market, even tho I'm rooting for it :)

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#349) On June 30, 2010 at 2:43 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

If the 10-yr Treasury bond yield keeps going lower, I'm going to start liquidating some of our fixed income holdings.  We have both Treasury and Municipal bonds, also CDs as well.

The municipal bonds have not participated as aggressively, but since we have accumulated many of our fixed income bonds, they have substantially increased in value since the yield breakdown.

 

We will probably let go of 40% of our Treasury bonds and probably 10-15% of the municipal bonds in the near future.

 

We took a brief hit in May to about +15%, but right now we are up a hair over +21% for the year.  Since we were extremely heavy and overweight in bonds, I have to run the numbers, but that will add substantially to our year to date profits.

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#350) On June 30, 2010 at 3:31 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Here it comes.  Intraday head and shoulders pattern.

Looks like they wanted to end the day with fireworks. 

 

 

 

 

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#351) On June 30, 2010 at 4:55 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Wow what an ugly day, glad I reopened my shorts.  Made another $615 today.  I am up to almost $18,000, from $15,800 at the beginning of the week.  Very, very good week for me.

The longs I opened yesterday made me roughtly $150ish, and my shorts made me another $515.  Glad I closed those when I saw the rally stalling.

I think employment is going to be ugly tomorrow...we'll see though.  Keeping my shorts open.  I'll make sure to be by the computer when the employment numbers are announced.

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#352) On June 30, 2010 at 5:14 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

the next 48 hours are going to be rough.  Plus the close today was extremely negative.  There will be a lot of trading action from now till then.  There have been a lot of targets being thrown around.  Mine is 950-1,000 in the S&P-500.  It's debatable as to where things will go from here.

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#353) On June 30, 2010 at 5:30 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I'm in total agreement with you about the target on the S&P, it's going to get ugly very quickly, and I don't see anything stopping it.

Surprised you didn't try your hand at shorting.

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#354) On June 30, 2010 at 5:51 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

yesterday was a plunge into the abyss.  With the market churning all day today, I thought that there might be an end of the day rug pull, but I was not sure.

Today would have been tough b/c it oscillated back and forth for the entire day.  I could have shorted the pop this morning, but I decided to pass.

If there is a mini rally, I may look to short that.  If unemployment is good this Friday there might be a mini push higher despite that one macro event.  I think 1,040 is now the reference point to short against in a retrace.

 

This guy I know also loaded up long with a stop under 1,040 on a close basis.  His thesis was that yesterday did not close under so he went long against it and it didn't work out too well.  I understand the thesis, but I think the odds were stacked against him.

 

This week I think I'm done.  The bond sales will be taken care of by someone else,  the Treasury bonds in our macro account. They have quite a large gain on them since the yields have been collapsing the past few days. Stocks/options wise though that's it for this week, even if the market keeps going down. 

 

 

 

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#355) On June 30, 2010 at 6:18 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Probably a good move.  I'm going to be watching this very carefully, and will have my finger on the sell button lol.  I think we will continue to see down days, or maybe some small up days.

Employment I do not see how its going to be positive.  I'll be shocked if it is, but then again, who the hell knows.

Luckily for me, I'm in IT and I'm around a computer 8-10 hours a day.  I've been also waking up at night checking on the other markets, the Euro, and the news head lines.  It's safe to say I've been STRESSED, and worked my ass off almost 24 hours a day the past 2 weeks to make sure my shorts were good.  

And for good reason, I was very heavy short, and it paid off big.  I called the top at 10,500 and rode that MF all the way down :)  You can call it sheer luck, but I definitely could not see anything good about the economy to warrant it going up more.

Had I held my conviction last week, I would probably be up overall...but I got a good chunk of this down trend, a GOOD chunk (15-20% up on my heavy 3x shorts).  These 3x shorts are damn risky, so that's why the late nights, the early mornings, and everything in between lol!

You've also helped with your spoting downward trends that I also was spotting,but you're much better at it.  So I thank you :)

 

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#356) On June 30, 2010 at 6:29 PM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

Hey no problem.  Glad you are making it work for you.  It is easy to get too wound up with emotion and that's normally what does people in is the emotional aspect of it.  Unfortunately I am in meeting and do travel to various cities from time to time, so I check positions via my cell phone (iPhone), but it is also harder to maintain a close eye.  Or I have to call and have someone else take care of it for me.

 

Like you I also am up pretty late at night, doing work in general, but also trading stuff.  I watch the foreign exchange market, bond market, international markets, the whole 9 yards.  That's really where doing the 'heavy work' is, is doing due diligence and keeping up with the news.

 

Information/news is critical.  There are people I know who are 'invested' in stocks that they have no idea what is going on or what macroeconomic news is taking place.  I actually had to tell one of my friends the reason why he has less AIG stock is because it reverse split.

No, I'm not joking, he had no idea why he had less shares at a higher price.  Even if no one told me, I know what happened, but anyways he did not.

In my opinion that is the epitome of gambling and also being wreckless.  You would never bet on some random sports team you know nothing about, so I'm not sure why people do it with stocks.  Then again everyone is a victim.

 

Typically I check cnn, cnbc, bloomberg, and yahoo finance.  I do not use a paid service, but between those 4 readily public site, they are kept up to date for the most part anyways.

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#357) On June 30, 2010 at 6:44 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I read yahoo finance, google finance, boomberg, reuters, seeking alpha all day/night always refreshing to see what each have to say.

I get my futures here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

I get my gold here:
http://www.goldprice.org/

I get my oil/gold (2nd reference) here:
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes

The futures are looking grim, but that never means anything in my opinion, even leading up to opening bell.

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#358) On June 30, 2010 at 6:45 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

google finance is where I look at night time for international markets.  They have a real nice interface tracking everything...asian, european, currencies, gold, oil everything.

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#359) On June 30, 2010 at 9:36 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

The futures are tanking guys, what is going on??

From the above site for futures I sited:

DJIA INDEX 9,655.00 -61.00 9,706.00 9,730.00 9,650.00 21:18 S&P 500 1,018.40 -8.20 1,024.40 1,027.40 1,016.00 21:18 NASDAQ 100 1,724.50 -13.50 1,736.00 1,739.50 1,721.00 21:18

It went from +1 S&P to -8.20

It went from +10 DJIA to -61

I know this is meaningless, but huh?  

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#360) On July 01, 2010 at 10:38 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Market going to tank.  Gotta love it, even if sitting the sidelines.

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#361) On July 01, 2010 at 11:42 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Short covering going on now.  Market climbing back up, but will ultimately go back down in my opinion.  could be wrong tho.

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#362) On July 01, 2010 at 1:24 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Ouch look at all this short covering.  Wow.  I mean they've practically erased all the losses...hilarious.

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#363) On July 01, 2010 at 1:44 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Lets see if we get a rug pull today.  That would be just classic.

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#364) On July 01, 2010 at 3:16 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

oh snap, here comes the final stretch...who wins...bulls or bears?  I'm of the opinion this will be a stretch down...but who knows.  Hold on to your hats kids!  This is gonna be fun!

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#365) On July 01, 2010 at 3:58 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

This has been a fun watch, the tug of war has been rediculously violent.  I'm going to hold my shorts and probably take my chances into tomorrows employment numbers, then just get out all together.  I guess I should have taken the gains I had when the S&P was at -17, but oh well.  Bulls win this round.

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#366) On July 02, 2010 at 5:37 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

looking at the futures, I dont get how anyone thinks these employment numbers are going to be good....this should be real interesting starting at 8:30

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#367) On July 02, 2010 at 8:14 AM, Superdrol (97.07) wrote:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/month-of-july-trading-thread/415136

 

 

here's a new thread for July.

 

Today may actually be an up day or atleast finish in the green even if the numbers come back 'not so bad' just because of so many down days, today may be a bounce.

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