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Month of May trading thread

Recs

3

May 06, 2010 – Comments (277) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD

I'll probably start creating a new thread each month for trading ideas and chatter.  Technical analysis or fundamental analysis does not matter.  Just toss in ideas, set ups, whatever....................this is my first one.

 

5-6-10

SP-500 long

Gold long

into the unemployment numbers tommorow.

277 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 06, 2010 at 12:48 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Sold off the SP-500 calls, keeping the actual index. 

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#2) On May 06, 2010 at 2:27 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

lol, weeeeeewwww.....I took a micro loss when SP-500 broke support @ 1,150, but gold is skyrocketing.

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#3) On May 06, 2010 at 3:30 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I sold off my gold.  I'll probably wait b/c there will be some forced liquidations due to margin calls.  Also anyone trying to trade around today, all the brokerages were screwed up....that's just what happens.

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#4) On May 06, 2010 at 5:08 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

How nuts was today!  Wow!  I looked at my phone and saw 700, then 900, then 1000 down!  I almost screamed HOLY $HIT in the middle of a conference.

Ah well. NBG went back up, I'm on par now with my holdings so no money lost, but wow!

 

 

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#5) On May 07, 2010 at 8:13 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Yesterday was absolutely crazy.  I got stopped out of the SP-500 index when it broke support at 1,150 and got out of my calls earlier so I had a loss at that point.  My only saving grace was the gold I sold before the close.  You mentioned that you got in at approx $800/oz, have you been scaling out, or are you holding for a certain price ?  When I saw the market plunging on my phone as well (I have both an iphone and blackberry), I was thinking oh boy, I'm gonna get sick.

 

Probably today I'm going to get a starter position of the SP-500 (200 shares), then probably add if there's strength past resistance at 1,150.

 

Apple and gold will also be worth scalps.

For about the past few weeks I haven't been getting in heavy in anything overnight.  If I ramp it up 200,400,400 in gold or the S&P500, I have to liquidate most of it before the close.  Crazy stuff.

 

 

Do you have anything on your radar ?  In my longer-term investment account, I sold 10 puts on the index expiring in Dec 2012 at 1,000 and a little bit of IBM (boring, but it works and is 'safe').

Since the puts are long dated and at 1,000 between earnings growth (what I expect 6-7% conservatively) and adjusted inflation, the hard numbers should most likely be substantially higher by 2012 (unless the US goes bankrupt).

When put options are yielding over 3x their value, I had to take advantage of that.  Plus I get the premium upfront and can use that money in the meantime.

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#6) On May 07, 2010 at 9:19 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I went ahead and wrote this blog post this morning:

 

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=387526&t=01001545002054304245

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#7) On May 07, 2010 at 12:48 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

NBG getting wild again.

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#8) On May 07, 2010 at 1:49 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Dow Jones Industrial Index looks like it is putting in a head and shoulders pattern, but I'm sure the blackboxes know this already.  Could see a nice wiff to the downside again.

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#9) On May 07, 2010 at 5:07 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

well i haven't looked at it all day, but i know NBG is getting hosed again,but good news, the bailout is on.

Let me put it to you this way, I equate this to the TARP and volititility we saw in 08-09.   I think it will calm down and the financials will reign supreme.  Well at least I hope lol!

i think everything is super cheap, but the market is doing stuff I'd never dream of.  So who the hell knows what's next haha!

 This is a roller coaster ride, the ones with strong nuts will stick it out, but weather you win/lose is in God's hands.

Good luck to all!

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#10) On May 10, 2010 at 7:01 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yay for politics as usual:

EU creates $1 trillion package to save euro

 

Go NBG go...already up ~12-15%.  I just had a feeling the politicians would not do the right thing, so they will print the Euro into oblivion.  I like my long positions of gold, oil, NBG, google, and DRYS.

 

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#11) On May 10, 2010 at 8:50 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Nice.  Did you see that the Federal Reserve is wanting to also extend a line of credit ?  IRE and AIB are rallying as well.  I'll be keeping an eye on gold and oil today.  See if they are worth a trade.  I'm kinda intimidated by the indexes.

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#12) On May 10, 2010 at 8:51 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Nasdaq is at a 10% correction and S&P/Dow are getting close to the 10%.  So either it will reverse or continue to plunge, but it is getting close to that point.  Also the S&P-500 bounced off the 200 day moving average

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#13) On May 10, 2010 at 9:12 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Futures starting to get a little weaker.  They may try to fade this off the open.  If it holds for 1 hour, then it may have some follow through punch.  If it fails, the bulls will get trapped, shorts will lean in and we'll probably hit 10% correction for both Dow/S&P.

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#14) On May 10, 2010 at 9:40 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Shorts getting slaughtered.  I love it.

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#15) On May 10, 2010 at 9:51 AM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

  MONDAY MARKET MAY false hope MARKET MAKERS looking for new BAGHOLDERS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#16) On May 10, 2010 at 10:01 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

lol.  I'm shorting small 200 S&P-500 index as a hedge against long.

 

Could be a bull trap.  If there's follow thru I'll add to my short position.

 

I figured if I play both damn sides I have to make money right ? lol.

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#17) On May 10, 2010 at 11:36 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

haha well good luck ma man...I have no idea the art of shorting.  I tried it last sept and got slaughtered.  I'm looking for NBG to go up quite a lot.  A trillion is going to go a long way so I'd expect the euro to strengthen over time against the dollar. 

With that money, they could easily bail out every country for the next 2-3 years.  But when that money dries up, then what?

It's definitely a band aid, no question, but I'll make money on this band aid for now.  

Oil stocks like DIG shooting up.  Toldja! :-P

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#18) On May 10, 2010 at 11:51 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Nice call on oil.  You can take both oil and gold long.  Seems like no matter what the market is doing, oil and gold move to the upside or downside.  I don't like getting short, I really hate it and when I get short, I either keep them as very short-term trades, or just the position small in general.

 

I covered my S&P-500 short this morning.  There was a heavy push to try and get the market to go lower and it didn't work.

 

Normally I am long-bias, but every now and then, getting short helps as a hedge.

 

Thing is though, lots of people are going to sell into any kind of strength due to the massive drop in a short period of time.

 

I am still synthetically long in my S&P-500 puts.  I sold some out to next year expiring in March 2011 out of the money.   At the money long-term put options have been yielding huge premiums and still give enough wiggle room for expiration.

Other than the S&P-500 short, I haven't done anything else today.  I've been in meetings all day long and have more meetings this afternoon.  ha

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#19) On May 10, 2010 at 11:54 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Lol, I just looked at the S&P-500 again.  Short selling is def risky, as the index bounced right back up.  You could have went short then long.

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#20) On May 10, 2010 at 12:37 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Wow you doing intra-day trading, you have some balls :)  

I'm long everything at this point.  As the Euro strengthens, and cheap, free money starts to flow, the illusion of a booming market will take hold and I think financials, commodities, and tech will be the biggest beneficiaries.

Oil was beaten so badly, I still am of the opinion it will hit $100 this year.  DIG was down to $29-$30 at one point, this was the price I sold it back in Sept 2009 and oil at that point was like $68-$70, so I knew there had to be more upside to that stock.

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#21) On May 10, 2010 at 12:41 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I usually only do intraday trading when the volatility becomes as extreme as it is now.  Normally though, I do hold stuff overnight, but if there's intraday volatility that can carry on overnight it is just more risk.

I agree with the commodities in relationship to the currency.  I am staying away from the financials b/c there is too much political risk, but commodities basically trade with supply/demand and also relationship to the currency strength.  The less clutter there is the better.  That's mainly why I've traded those companies.

US Steel, Freeport McMoRan, Mittal Steel, International Paper,  GLD, SLV, USO, a lot of the commodity based companies have a lot of beta b/c they are so cyclical.  Freeport McMoRan is a total dud though.  That stock is better being shorted vs. long.

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#22) On May 11, 2010 at 10:22 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

The Euro took a big hit early on today, but has gained some steam here.  As a result, the market is reacting positively. 

If the Euro can get back to the $1.30-$1.33Euro/$1 USD we should see a big push in the market to the upside.  If it can't gain momentum and the dollar continues to strengthen, the market won't be a spot to be in.  Though my GOLD is rallying even further :)   

I'm up 8% on my NBG even on the down day, but was up as much as 25% yesterday.  sucks I didn't sell, but I think all this volatility will come to an end soon, and the Euro should strengthen.  Hopefully that means NBG will follow suit, and go up toward $4-$5/share.  This is all hopeful tho :)

I rode the waves, had gut wrenching losses, but stayed true to my opinion that european financials with all this new found liquidity should do just fine.  Even if they can't lend (like US financials), they will find other means to make money.

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#23) On May 11, 2010 at 10:46 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

How do you think that the Euro reacts long-term to the current financial conditions throughout Europe ? Essentially the problem has spread beyond the EU.  It is now a Europe and whoever else decides to join the party because it is effectively spreading around Greece's and other EU countries debt among assistancing balance sheets.

 

I saw that gold is breaking new highs, the market is off a tad, but volatility is up overall.

 

The Euro didn't really gain much traction yesterday, but that's only one day though.  I agree if the Euro can rally against the dollar it will drive the market higher.  That's normally what I take a look at when I get up in the morning along with the futures.

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#24) On May 11, 2010 at 10:52 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

It's exactly what I look at as well, that being the Euro vs the Dollar.  Then I look at the futures.  Typically the market futures follow the same thing, but its not always exact.

Long term as in 1-3-5yrs?  I think this will all hit a wall within 2-3 years.  And I'm talking about the entire world, since much of it is under so much debt, that they've decided to issue more debt to service the old.  While that may be good short term, and you'll see money flowing freely through the system, it's my opinon its a short term sugar high that will crash harder than the first.

I would say the next 6months-1year, we are all going to be fine int he market, but as that time tables starts to unravel, I'm going to be pushing my gains from my other investments into gold, and gold only.  I have about 50% of my portfolio in there now and its doing quite nicely.  Its not going to give you 40% gains like some, but its the surest 10-15% gain year over year that you can get, going back to 2000.

Long term, this looks bad, real bad.  The problem comes in when do you sell your gold?  When is it at its peek?  $1500?  $2000? $5000?  Who knows.

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#25) On May 11, 2010 at 10:54 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Dow looks like a head and shoulders pattern is being put in with the neckline at 10,720.  Could break sometime today and close down 0.5%-1% again.

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#26) On May 11, 2010 at 11:20 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I agree, I just saw its only down 5points, wow what a turn around.

NBG lost 4% of the 15% I gained yesterday, lets hope it recovers everything.  Fingers crossed!  

I'm rooting for the Euro at this point.  Lets hope I'm right lol!

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#27) On May 11, 2010 at 11:50 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I'm with you.  I'm not sure when gold will peak, but it is worth a short-term investment (1-2 years) even if you are not overweight in it, as more of a diversification tool.  My grandma bought gold coins (a lot of them) back in the 60s-70s and has them in a safebox in the bank.  We may sell off a portion of them at some point later on.

 

Did you by chance read that article that I wrote about the states and municipalities ?  The market is pretty volatile and right now the headwinds within the world economies are going to remain challenged for many years to come.  A lot of the excess leveraging and liquidity issues is just shuffling around the mess instead of fixing it.

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#28) On May 11, 2010 at 11:54 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Honestly, no one knows how high gold will go, or how things could potentially detoriate in the longer-term.  Best is to just manage position sizing.  I was going to buy GLD at $117 or $116.50, but it is getting away from me so I'll have to let it go for the time being.

 

A lot of attention is being directed overseas with emphasis on Europe, but a lot of the states/municipalities are under severe distress which has not come to light.

 

James Chanos mentioned not too long ago municipalities bonds and the risks associated with them.  The way that the public pensions operate is that they amortize their losses throughout a given period of time so their 'real losses' have not been accounted for due to 'accounting gimmicks' which will eventually happen at a time and place.

One of my parents is a CIO for one of the public pension funds and oversees it for the entire state.  We've sold most of our muni bonds into the strength and lowered yields.  In the long-term their interest rates will rise and values will go down.

They do not yield nearly enough for the risks associated with them.

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#29) On May 11, 2010 at 12:55 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Oh geez, the municipalities are a hot mess, I can name at least 6 off the top of my head that are in serious trouble.

My dad has been looking at Brazillian bonds @ 8%  you may want to take a gander there....I'm not sure the specifics, but he's a very conservative invester so there must be something he's liking.

Pensions are screwed, and I keep telling my friends who work for the gov't and have these plans that they better expect massive benefit reductions. They don't believe me and think I'm all doom and gloom, but its reality.

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#30) On May 11, 2010 at 2:21 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I also work for the Government as well; however, not in the pension system though.  Our state is one of the more conservative states, but a lot of states are going through pain b/c of the overleveraging of the states and municipalities.  I saw that New York is doing an emergency furlough to rebalance the state budgets. 

 

The thing is though the stimulus used for the states is wearing out and only accounts for 30-40% of the downfalls.  At the same time all the debt being issued is not for free either (without interest).  Illinois's pension system is so bad they are issuing bonds to pay for current obligations.

 

Unfortunately things never really seem to change until they get to the extreme. This is true in all aspects of life like someone who is obese but dosen't eat healthy until a heart attack, or a alcoholic who eventually kills someone drinking and driving, that kind of thing.

 

Later on the states will probably do rough and harsh cuts, tax increases, and most likely another stimulus from the Federal Government which will get lopped onto the current deficit.

The US's debt levels are not 'extreme' yet so there's still room to keep it going.  Japan and UK are getting to that level though soon.

I'm not sure about Brazil, I know there are political headwinds in South America.  What brokerage is your dad using to buy those bonds ?

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#31) On May 11, 2010 at 2:29 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I agree with the debt load, we are headed for a very painful crossroads and it's not too distant int he future.

He uses Charles Schwabb for all his investing, so I'm assuming that's what he's using.  I don't know what he sees, but he's called gold since 2001-2002...and moved all his wealth to the Canadian dollar when it was $0.64C/$1 USD.  He's made a lot money in the past decade just with these 2 moves.

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#32) On May 12, 2010 at 11:39 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

The Euro just can not get a foot hold 3 days after the trillion dollar bailout.

I know I need to be more patient but damn! :(

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#33) On May 13, 2010 at 8:36 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

man, i missed yesterday's up day.

The Euro situation, I think, will continue to improve once the capital has been actually deployed.  So far they have just talked about it.

You are still winning in gold, lol.  Everyone is talking about gold now.  It's like playing chicken between the S&P-500 and gold to see which one will blink.

 

I bought back one of my put options on the S&P-500 and rolled out new ones to 2012 with a strike at 1,300.

When I shorted the put options yesterday, they were at approx 10% discount and in-the-money.

Between theta, vega, and delta the option will devalue then I can scalp the profit off of it. Not anything to fancy, but it'll work for the time being, lol

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#34) On May 13, 2010 at 8:58 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Futures pre-mkt looks weak.  I might try a negative to positive reversal long.  People might actually buy the dip.

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#35) On May 13, 2010 at 9:52 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Caught the negative to positive trade.  Made decent money.  Done for the day.

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#36) On May 13, 2010 at 12:03 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Good work, yes gold is making me tons of money for now, its in my long positions so I'm not letting that go any time soon.  Miner stocks are up almost 12% since last week.  I was heavy ABX, GDXJ, GDX.  Gold is going to keep on keeping on. 

I agree, the euro should start to strengthen once the liquidity gets into the markets.  That's a whole lot of liquidity over a pretty long time (3 years).  If I'm wrong going into NBG (now down about 2% overall - not bad weathering this gigantic storm!) I'll be shocked!

You'll have to explain your puts and options trading...I have no idea how that all works as of now.  I'm still new to investing (going on my 2nd year).  Let me know how you're using these are tools to make money.

My opinion is gold is too high right now, though I do see more upside, I'd wait for a better entry point.  Anything below $1200/ounce right now is a good entry point.

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#37) On May 13, 2010 at 1:02 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I've been watching gold and I'd probably have gotten a better return had I traded that instead.  Normally I try to stick with what I know and am familiar with just so I know what is normal movement and what isn't.  I've also heard some continued interest in gold from banks in India.

After the big move in gold, I'm going to watch it for the time being and give it some time to digest and get a decent entry point.

With options, it is hard to explain it in one post.  There are 'calls' and 'puts'.  Depending on your position (long or short), depends on the obligation or right you have with them.  Options are derivatives and a zero sum gain, so every dollar gained is a dollar lost.

 

In my circumstances, I'm taking advantage of some of the inefficiencies in the pricing of the options right now.  Another trade is I am sell put options into 2012, meaning if it does not get to a certain price (I wrote 1,300 on the SP-500) then I am forced to buy the index at 1,300 anyway.

Because of that I am given money right up front.  So if it is 1,600 on the SP-500 by then that money is all mine.  If the US goes bankrupt and the SP-500 goes to 0, then I am forced to still buy at 1,300.  Depends on what your expectations are in the future.

 

Warren Buffett sold puts on the SP-500 like 15-20 years out which are LEAPS.  Retail investors cannot do something as easy like that.  Mine are 2.5 years out.  Each call or put is representative of 100 shares.  So my position instead of being invested in the index is to sell (short) a put option b/c I believe that the index will rise in the future and I will keep all the premium.

 

That's the basics of it.

 

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#38) On May 13, 2010 at 3:05 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

volume is really, really, really thin.  Most stocks and indexes I trade are barely reaching 2/3 of their typical volume.

 

Deathly low volume+ higher prices= rug pull

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#39) On May 13, 2010 at 4:06 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Awesome, I'm excited! lol....well down 100+ points today and the euro lost another penny today.  If it goes below the $1.24 mark, I'm out of NBG.  I can't take it anymore.

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#40) On May 13, 2010 at 6:11 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

man that was quick. -100+ on the dow.  This market is vicious.  This is partly why I daytrade, b/c there's too much volatility/risk.

NBG is been waffling in the air lately.  If the Euro continues to tank, I'd take off some NBG.  NBG is a rare trade for me b/c I normally do not trade fundamentally distressed/problematic stocks.

According to 'efficient market theory' (it should be called 90% efficient), the market has priced in information into the current prices.  At any rate, the fact that the Euro still cannot rally is a warning sign, IMO.  Technically or fundamentally, it is still an issue.

 

I think if the volume continues to be tremendously low, there will be a small woosh down.  I don't think things will fall apart to the extreme (they always could though), but there will be a lot of whipsawing volatility and still room to the downside.

 

I like to trade General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, International Paper, Rock-Tenn, Weyerhauser, etc.....they are not crowded like Apple, Google, Goldman Sachs, and that other junk.

 

If we can get a clean close at or above 11,000 on the Dow Jones, then the bull market move is back on.  If it closes again under 10,700 then it might be another aggressive move lower.  It's kinda tossing and turning at the moment.

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#41) On May 13, 2010 at 6:26 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

5/11- S&P 500 index low of the day:  1147.41, a close before that and we drop to re-test on 1122.27 high volume day.

 

A close above 1172-1180 on the S&P 500, there's a bull flag and we get back to 1,200 before resistance again.

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#42) On May 13, 2010 at 7:00 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea NBG has been back and forth between $2.80-$2.90 give or take a penny.

The Euro is weighing on it, I guess when I was up that $3000, I should have taken it and ran lol! Oh well, I guess I had too long of an outlook thinking the bailout was coming and all was going to be fine like the TARP did for our financials.

Problem is the unrest is causing a lot of issues for the Euro, and its on the brink of collapse in my opinion.  I'm going to give it through the week (tomorrow) to see how the Euro stands up...but once it goes below that $1.25 mark and into the $1.24 area, I'm out and sitting on cash for the next dip.

I may even day trade to recoup some of my losses (about $1000)  Sucks.

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#43) On May 13, 2010 at 7:03 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea NBG has been back and forth between $2.80-$2.90 give or take a penny.

The Euro is weighing on it, I guess when I was up that $3000, I should have taken it and ran lol! Oh well, I guess I had too long of an outlook thinking the bailout was coming and all was going to be fine like the TARP did for our financials.

Problem is the unrest is causing a lot of issues for the Euro, and its on the brink of collapse in my opinion.  I'm going to give it through the week (tomorrow) to see how the Euro stands up...but once it goes below that $1.25 mark and into the $1.24 area, I'm out and sitting on cash for the next dip.

I may even day trade to recoup some of my losses (about $1000)  Sucks.

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#44) On May 13, 2010 at 8:07 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

If NBG can claw through $3.00 I'd be surprised, at least in the short-term.  Don't beat yourself up over the trade.  Everyone has bad trades unless you are Bernie Madoff, lol.  The thing is just to learn from them and move on.

Scale in and out, and get a decent average all around.  The Euro is truely a toss in the air.  I don't even have an opinion b/c it is driven purely by politics.  No fundamental analysis can predict nor value the situation.  That's why I didn't even care about NBG's fundamentals....wasn't applicable for my timeframe anyway.  At any rate, you live and learn, I've had my bad trades too.

One guy told me that it is ok to be wrong, and quite frankly many people are.  It is just not ok to stay wrong.  One of my most recent screw-up trades was Goldman Sachs and S&P-500 calls a few weeks ago.  Both trades took my losses and kept it small.

Profit-losses= real profits.  Trading or investing, no matter what. 

One word of caution:  If you have not daytraded before, I HIGHLY suggest you keep track and try it first on a notebook and paper trade.  Don't start daytrading right away.  It's not remotely easy, I'll be the first to admit it and also most ppl lose money b/c they just cannot grasp it.  It is much much different than swing trading.

 

If I were you, IMO, I'd get in cash, wait for a crash or dip, whatever and scale in and buy a strong fundamentally stock like Apple, BIDU, IBM, etc....don't get in the garbage.  This way you have a long bias b/c the stock is good fundamentally, good liquidity, and worst case scenario if you don't want to take your losses they can work 'involuntarly' as legitimate investments.

 

For me, daytrading= no more than 3-4% loss on any given trade.

swing trading/investments= no more than 7-8% loss

I can always buy it back later on, but if they are dropping that much and are 'allegedly good investments and companies' there's more to the story and it is best to step aside momentarly.

 

I don't know if you saw this article or not:

 

http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2010/04/30/why-im-down-more-than-80-and-how-to-avoid-my-mista.aspx

 

Things could be worse.  You could be him, lol. 

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#45) On May 13, 2010 at 10:05 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Well I am seeing NBG crawl back up as the Euro crawls back up.

I'm on the fence as to what is going to happen, but through my  many hours of reading, I'm seeing a bad downside vs upside.  That is making me want to sell and just rid myself of this.  Oil looks very attractive.

We'll see. I'm holding hope, cuz i held gold from dec 09 and it just jumped now (nearly 6 months later).  So my gut was good, my patience wasn't.

 

bleh!

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#46) On May 14, 2010 at 6:59 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

euro absolutely collapsing.

this is insane.  NBG is a goner.

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#47) On May 14, 2010 at 8:31 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Euro looks like garbage again.  Today may not fill its gap, plus Friday is typically a lower volume day than most which does not help.

 

HAUP had huge buying volume due to the iphone or ipad whatever affiliation.  Normally those kinds of explosive volume up moves have one more up day.  May be worth a scalp.  Same with gold.

 

Today will probably be tricky so unless there's something really compelling, I might have to just pass on today, esp with the weekend coming up

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#48) On May 14, 2010 at 8:50 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Also too as well I think I'm going to buy BP at the open or so with a stop at $47.35.

 

A lot of the bad news has been priced in and once BP stops the leak with whatever strategy they are using, the stock will go up.  So this is more of a swing trade with a news catalyst.

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#49) On May 14, 2010 at 8:52 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Hm,...haha it is lower than $47.35 pre-mkt.  Maybe I'll pass on BP as well.

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#50) On May 14, 2010 at 10:06 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I didn't trade at all today and will not at all today.  My fav. stocks aren't showing any committment to direction. 

Just gonna sit back and watch the action.  S&P-500 filled its gap.  Not good.

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#51) On May 14, 2010 at 10:45 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

kinda looks like a bear flag in the indexes for a measured move lower.  may push past intraday lows. 

Gold looks like sh^t and dropped like a rock.  It's not moving in opposite tandem like normal.  Someone must have needed to shore up liquidity.  Euro is garbage and keeps falling.

 

 

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#52) On May 14, 2010 at 11:50 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea, I got out of NBG at a $1300 loss.

I'm pretty bummed out..but this euro is just sinking and I can't take it anymore.  I'm thinking the strength in the dollar is going to crush gold at some point, it already is crushing oil.

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#53) On May 14, 2010 at 11:54 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

don't worry about it.  just keep in cash for the time being esp in this current bearish phase.  there's still plenty of opportunity later on down the line.

not just gold, but oil, and virtually every other stock or asset, when it moves upwards in a nearly vertical line (parabolic), it is bound to end badly.  The tech bubble, gold in Dec, oil in summer 2008.  You can never pin the tops or bottoms.  The best is to take a piece and pocket it along the way.

 

I agree though as some point gold will get crushed.  In Dec '09 when I had gold I put in stops at prior days lows.  So the peak, I left on the table whatever it closed at and got stopped out of gold at the prior day's low.

 

Haven't been in since though.  But at any rate, in this circumstance, if you are still heavy in gold I'd be taking profits.

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#54) On May 14, 2010 at 12:26 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Bear flag breakdown in the DJIA index this morning. 

 

Next stop on the S&P-500 is 1,120-1,122 then the 200 day moving average if things get very extreme at 1,100.

The bull flag set up has been broken. 1,115 is resistance now for the S&P-500.

 

 

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#55) On May 14, 2010 at 12:26 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I took all my profits, and went into BP about 30% what I want to go into it over all.  Besides, its almost at its low of March of 2009 (about 25-30% higher for now).

I'm going to see how that goes for now and if I see the dollar keep strengthening, I'll just hold that and stay out of it.  I have roughly 70% of my cash out of the market and sitting.

DRYS is looking good, as is google and vmware.  I'm going to keep watching those.  When this correction stops is anyone's guess, but I'm expecting the euro to go below the $1.20 mark, so theres a bit more to go in this correction.

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#56) On May 14, 2010 at 12:35 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I agree. I think the next stop is $1.20 for the Euro.  I mean there is just literally no traction right now.  DryShips has a potential drillships IPO coming out, so it is worth a speculative play.  They just had earnings which were so-so, but that really was a flush out of any weak hands (longs).

 

With BP there has been lots of bad news already baked into the price.  Plus if shorts want to short the stock some more they will be responsible for that massive dividend being paid.  I really do think that if they stop the oil with the hood or whatever they are using that it could be a short-term catalyst to the upside.  They are currently working on solutions so any day now could be the oil spilling getting stopped.

VMWare is a strong stock technically, with cloud computing, strong all around.  I traded awhile back but have not yet.

Google has been weak and lagged the Nasdaq heavily.  Google is starting to move out of its growth stage into more of a mature business stage so it's acceleration to the upside is slowing down, plus they don't pay a dividend.  Keep that in mind.

 

 

 

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#57) On May 14, 2010 at 12:37 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Gold looks like it is bear flagging as well.  Gold chasers are getting punished right now.

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#58) On May 14, 2010 at 1:08 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I gotta say, watching from the sidelines is way better than being in the mix lol!

BP I put about 9K into, I figure I'll hold that until at least the dividend, but they are solid and only news is making them unpopular right now.  I'm actually hoping it goes down more so I can buy more.  I got it about $46.50.  I think this is one I may add to my IRA's but I'm going to stalk the sidelines while the euro keeps thrashing this market.

At some point the Euro has to gain some traction and I'll try my hand at some of their financials again.  Sooner or later, the bleeding has to stop.

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#59) On May 14, 2010 at 2:13 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Let me add some data to this:

 

Dollar index at 85.38 and rising.  I expect the Euro to go below $1.20, so when its all said and done, the dollar should be at the 88-89 level. The last time the Dollar was this strong was in late 2008 and gold was 700-800oz. The market was at 9000-9500ish.  I'm expecting the bear trend to continue.  I may even try my hand at shorting.

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#60) On May 14, 2010 at 2:25 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Dollar index at 85.38 and rising.  I expect the Euro to go below $1.20, so when its all said and done, the dollar should be at the 88-89 level. The last time the Dollar was this strong was in late 2008 and gold was 700-800oz. The market was at 9000-9500ish.  I'm expecting the bear trend to continue.  I may even try my hand at shorting.

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#61) On May 14, 2010 at 2:57 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

The dollar will continue to rise as a safe haven even over gold for the time being.  I think a lot of people are also taking profits ahead of the weekend.  If I had longs I'd also be doing that myself.  Monday may be a gap up "mutual money" for a quick over the weekend trade.  I picked up a little bit of BP (200 shares) for a small position at $46.38.

I don't think I will add to it right now, just having a feeler position.  If they get the oil stopped before Monday that would be a good day to sell into that strength.

 

If Monday is a 'mutual fund Monday' and gaps up on strength I will also sell BP as well.

Just taking BP for a swing trade.  It is near its March low, so the risk vs reward is a decent trade-off.

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#62) On May 14, 2010 at 3:03 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Ha, I bought 200 shares also at 46.50, lets see if they cap this sucker over the weekend.  It'd be nice :)

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#63) On May 14, 2010 at 3:05 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

$48 is a gap fill and most likely first level of resistance for BP if it does fill the gap.  That's $1.60 past where I got it.  Risking .60c

2.5:1 ratio risk vs. reward, not the best I normally prefer 3:1 or greater, but it will do for now.

 

I have a stop with BP @ the low of today at $46.00, but that's just my own preference.  I know July lows are around $44-$45 and March 09 lows are $33 or so, something like that.  I am not going to wait for it to tumble that far.

 

I prefer to keep a tighter stop.

 

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#64) On May 14, 2010 at 3:08 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

dig is beat to piss too.  may look at that.

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#65) On May 14, 2010 at 3:11 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Last week and the past several weeks we have had big gap ups on Monday mornings.  I will stick with BP right now, but if you buy small, Monday could be a day to sell into.  It was this week and normally has been strong the past several weeks.

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#66) On May 14, 2010 at 3:14 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Good to know.  Did you set a limit price?

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#67) On May 14, 2010 at 3:19 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I'll probably get up on Monday and set it up.  I put in a sell order for 200 shares, then use the stop selection and put in $46.

 

If it crosses $46 or below it becomes a market order and all 200 shares are sold.  There are also stop limits, but if it gaps below that price, it will not be executed due to the limit constraints which is why I just use a plain stop.  I'll be monitoring it for the time being.

 

BP cannot just let the oil spill forever and they have been working on fixing it.  Longer-term I'm not sure to what extent the damage is.  BP probably dosen't know and neither do the experts, but in the short-term the oil capping will be a positive catalyst.

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#68) On May 14, 2010 at 4:03 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

LETS GO BP!  Blug the hole!!  -  you're supposed to say, "That's what she said!"

I'm already up $100, now just $2000 more to go :)

 

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#69) On May 14, 2010 at 4:08 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

haha, that's what she said.  Once the problem is atleast somewhat controlled it will begin to reverse itself.  Not much in the way until $48, easy money.

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#70) On May 14, 2010 at 4:29 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I was more on the $50-$52 mark.  I want a clean 10%, but I'll take what I can get.  Oil has been nutty these days.  If it goes up, I may just hold 1/2 and sell 1/2.

I'm starting to learn ole wise massa! :)  Too many chips on the table with NBG.

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#71) On May 14, 2010 at 4:55 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Once it starts moving up, there are still a lot of longs who are underwater in the stock that will most likely start selling.  This is probably going to happen not only because of the BP headline news and oil spill, but also in general because the overall market is tanking as well.  So essentially, it is a double hit with BP.

 

I probably will not add to BP regardless there's just too much overhead supply to make it worthwhile and to do with conviction.

 

Either that or you can sell them in 100 shares, then let the other half run for a bit longer.

 

It's worth a trade.  It's not going to be a homerun or anything like that, but if you are making money then that's really the bottom line.

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#72) On May 14, 2010 at 5:08 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Very true, the bottom line is what matters.

After hours, its taking a hit.  Bleh.  I guess we'll see how it plays out.

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#73) On May 15, 2010 at 10:49 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

game time!  is BP going to get it done! we'll see!  we'll know within 24 hours :)

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#74) On May 17, 2010 at 7:53 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

well they made progress but the euro is crushing that news lol.

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#75) On May 17, 2010 at 8:09 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I saw that BP started to syphon out some of that oil.  If it gaps up this morning or is up I may look at selling into that even if it does not hit my target.  Just to unwind out of the trade.

 

Futures are flat.

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#76) On May 17, 2010 at 8:42 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea, it got as high as $47.30, then started to go down.

Dunno, guess we'll see how it goes.

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#77) On May 17, 2010 at 9:06 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

At the open I am going to watch it, if it gets to $47 or starts moving down towards that price, I am going to sell it off.  Don't want to let the profit get away from me.

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#78) On May 17, 2010 at 9:11 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Was thinking the same thing.  I may just let half go now, and hold the second half to see how it reacts.  With the Euro collapsing, oil prices I think should continue down.  Dollar is gaining again, sooner or later, we'll see if the market reacts to this.  So far, its been massive triple digit swings.  

Asian markets got pounded.

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#79) On May 17, 2010 at 9:16 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

That's probably the best way to manage the risk in the stock.  I am going to sell off my entire position.  Oil has been slipping, and the cat is out of the bag that BP already made progress, so IMO the short-term trade is done.  I have not the foggiest idea as to what happens longer-term.

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#80) On May 17, 2010 at 9:32 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Sold off all my BP.at the $47.45 print right now. Easy enough.

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#81) On May 17, 2010 at 9:38 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Sold about the same price, few pennies higher.

I have 150 shares still.

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#82) On May 17, 2010 at 9:39 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Sold remaining shares at $47.50

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#83) On May 17, 2010 at 9:41 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

sweet.  nice little cash flow trade. 

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#84) On May 17, 2010 at 9:45 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

taking a little S&P-500 short for a scalp trade.

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#85) On May 17, 2010 at 9:51 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Market is heavy. Looks like it will roll over at some point.

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#86) On May 17, 2010 at 9:53 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

ROFL.  Jason are you looking at this ? at BP ? We pinned it at the top.

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#87) On May 17, 2010 at 10:01 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Covered the S&P500 index here.  It will probably go lower though.  I'm done for the day.  BP seriously baited some bulls there, lol.

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#88) On May 17, 2010 at 10:59 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yup just got to work, BP rolled over, how great was that timing!

I didnt want to worry about it, so good work.

I'm going to start looking for a gigantic pullback in gold.  Oil is still going down too.  If we time this right, I am going to go back into gold and oil once the euro stops plummeting.  Who knows when that is, but I think its going south of $1.20 and may stop around $1.17-$1.18

Lets see.

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#89) On May 17, 2010 at 11:38 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Market is getting smoked again.  I figured it would probably go lower, but I decided to cover earlier.

In this market b/c things change on a dime, I just try to get a decent profit either short or long and take off the trade.  The added risk for that last 2% or so isn't worth it, IMO.

 

BP is up in the air now.  It's a crowded trade, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it test that $43-44 low or whatever it was.  It's technically in a downtrend and a broken stock.  Plus fundamentally there will be many lawsuits in the long-term (billions).  Not interested in investing with them esp since there are other stocks/assets that are not in that prediciment.  I don't plan on trading BP anymore. 

 

I'm not sure about oil either, as the drop in crude oil+oil spill in the Gulf shows that the oil price is driven by speculation and currency wise vs. real fundamental supply/demand.  Then again that's always been the case.

 

I have my eye on gold as well.  I was considering trading silver, but I think I may just stick with gold.  Looking for a decent entry price.

 

Next upwards catalyst may be earnings season and specifically Apple's earnings.  So a rise in the market vs. drop in gold price, that's going to be around the time to look for an entry.

 

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#90) On May 17, 2010 at 12:10 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I leaned in really heavy (75%) short off the tape on the S&P-500 for that mini whoosh for a scalp.  If there is a mini free fall I'll dump short really heavy without scaling in into it for a few seconds to pick up a few points, then cover. 

 

Oil dropping, gold is flopping like a fish taken out of water and thrown on a wooden deck.

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#91) On May 17, 2010 at 12:43 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Well I'm just seeing short term dollar strength and that typically puts assets like commodities and equities at risk for a pull back.  I think we have seen 2 out of 3 of these take the hit (equities and oil).  Gold is ripe for a pull back.

 

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#92) On May 17, 2010 at 1:19 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

The market has been trading in lockstep basically with the USD/EUR.

 

That's the key to be watching.  Euro rallies, we rally, euro declines, we decline........tick tick tick..................

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#93) On May 17, 2010 at 4:26 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

What a nutty day!  You're right, watch the Euro, that's the direction the market follows.

So what we eyeing now?  I am not seeing any no brainers to go into.  

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#94) On May 18, 2010 at 7:54 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Nothing obvious about today's trading, I can't even tell how the day is going to go based on the small gain in the Euro.  That could evaporate throughout the day and tank the market.

 

Hrm.  Gold going down though, that's a good thing :)

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#95) On May 18, 2010 at 8:12 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Not seeing anything too compelling right now.  I'd also be careful for the rest of the week.  This friday is options expiration and it has a tendency to create excess volatility and they pin the stocks as well.

I'll leave the gold/oil trade to you since you seem to know more about it than I do.  I might trade Apple if it shows any strength today.  Other than that it'll be blah.  Maybe for the rest of the week too.

 

Euro is probably close to finding a bottom here at this point to be honest.  I think the only thing that would plunge it further is a default.  The cat is out of the bag for all of Europe at this point.

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#96) On May 18, 2010 at 8:13 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Nice thing is if no decent trades are set-up you can always sit in cash till one does.  I've waited days/weeks during dryspells.  You don't want to trade for the sake of it, so sometimes cash is the best thing at the moment.

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#97) On May 18, 2010 at 8:21 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea, I may sit on cash for now unless something comes up.

I am sensing a euro bottom as well, I may go back into oil a bit because if that's the case, and the euro does go back up, we've also seen an oil bottom.

I am going to watch and see over the next week.  If the Euro strengthens, I'll be watching the gold correction (already started today) and may go back in to NBG for a small bet.

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#98) On May 18, 2010 at 9:45 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Kinda noisy right now.  I'm watching the indexes and they seem to be 'heaving' a bit.  I wouldn't be surprised if we put in a top by 10-10:30am.

We may close green for the day, but not most likely not near the highs.

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#99) On May 18, 2010 at 10:51 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

yep,  I was right.  Top was put in this morning.

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#100) On May 18, 2010 at 10:51 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

yep,  I was right.  Top was put in this morning.

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#101) On May 18, 2010 at 11:31 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I sat today out, I do think the Euro is done declining.

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#102) On May 18, 2010 at 12:35 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

K so I take that back, Euro is declining yet again lol.

 

There just isn't any direction in the market right now.  I'll need a big down day to make any kinda of decision.

 

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#103) On May 18, 2010 at 12:42 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Euro still looks weak.  I was tempted to get in today, but I have not.  I still have my S&P-500 puts, but those are dated several years out, so that dosen't really matter right now.

 

Not really doing much.  I may not for the rest of the week unless I get a really good trade or set up.

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#104) On May 18, 2010 at 12:47 PM, kamshare (56.19) wrote:

Experts, I am new to trading and would like to know your opinions about buying Citgroup Inc. Please suggest.

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#105) On May 18, 2010 at 12:47 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

In these volatile markets, you think there's committment to one direction only to have it reverse violently back and forth.  I've seen traders get trapped in that back and forth and lose cash.

 

Normally the best thing is to try a single position (30%) to see.  If it starts jarring around, you can take a small loss.  More often than not though, it is better just to wait it out.

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#106) On May 18, 2010 at 12:48 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

kamshare-

 

Stay away from Citigroup.  There is too much political risk and it is a crowded trade.  Not worth it.

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#107) On May 18, 2010 at 12:56 PM, kamshare (56.19) wrote:

Thank  you Superdol. Could you suggest some that I should watch. I know I haven't done enough research and don't even know the basics but I want to start somewhere.

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#108) On May 18, 2010 at 1:11 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I'm watching for gold to pull back below $1200.  The stocks I'm watching for gold is ABX, GDX, GDXJ.

My entry points for these would be:

ABX 36-40

GDXJ 24-26

GDX 44-46

Oil will make a bottom here when the Euro finally stops free falling:

RIG, BP, DIG, etc

I am also watching:

MSFT

VMW

DRYS

GOOG

Anybody have some they're watching that I'm not?

 

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#109) On May 18, 2010 at 1:17 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

We are about to head off a clif, I just bought into DXD.  Euro down mroe than a penny...oh snap

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#110) On May 18, 2010 at 1:25 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Boo, cliff hasn't come :(  I still think it may come, lots of downward pressure, but maybe people aren't looking at the Euro as hard as they used to.

The past few sessions, the Euro has been followed to a 'T' Guess I called this one wrong.  Going to give it a bit more time.

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#111) On May 18, 2010 at 1:44 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

this market should be going off a cliff right now...I mean 100+ points to the down side....I don't know what is holding this up but having a 0.8-1.2% drop should be happening now.

 

It's trying to go lower, but something won't let it....grrr!

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#112) On May 18, 2010 at 1:49 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

kamshare-

 

Right now, IMO you should paper trade and get a feel for the different sectors and continue to practice up on it first.  Trading is by no means easy, and anyone who says it is is lying.  I spend 2hrs+ every night reading macroeconomic information and also underlying fundamentals for each company.

 

Also the volatility right now is really severe so the environment is difficult to get started in.

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#113) On May 18, 2010 at 1:57 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

NASDAQ = -1.20%

S&P 500 = -1%

DOW = .7%

I need it to go down by .3 more, will it happen?  Inquiring minds want to know!!  lol!

Down baby down!

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#114) On May 18, 2010 at 1:57 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I've like to play with FCX and X which are both commodity plays.  Both commodities and tech are good b/c they do not have a lot of political influence or risk. 

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#115) On May 18, 2010 at 2:02 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I just got off an hour long phone call.  The market dropped quite a bit since I last saw it.  Lol,  I pinned the top this morning.  It's not surprising by any means though.  Weak Euro, weak in the financials, ....... it was written on the wall.

 

The financials lead us into this disaster and they will have to lead the market out too.  Despite all the other sectors rallying and outperforming, the financial sector needs to get traction for the market to really end up moving again. 

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#116) On May 18, 2010 at 2:05 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

S&P-500 we are going to test support at 1,114 then the 200 day moving average at 1,101.

The volume is thin and the traders (like myself) have been running the market.  The market on deathly low volume is not being held up by value or buy and hold investors.  They have been gone since 2008 and they are never coming back.

It's a trader's market now.  I don't forsee that changing anytime soon.

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#117) On May 18, 2010 at 3:28 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I had to go into a meeting when the DOW was down 83pts.  I made roughly $82...I did not want to risk it.

I come back, it tanks.

Figures.  Oh well.  I made my money and got out.  

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#118) On May 18, 2010 at 3:30 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Haha, that's more than I made today.  I've been busy with work and whatnot, so I really have not traded today.  You'll never go broke taking profits. I've taken profits in excess of $25,000 in one trade and as small as $5.00

 

At the end of the day, money is money.

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#119) On May 18, 2010 at 3:32 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I remember I had a convo where I was talking to someone and telling them I was pulling $500-$700 pretty consistantly everyday off trading and he was like 'that's not a lot'.

 

ROFL, right so you'd rather not have $500-$700/day.  I haven't been giving the market any play, so even if I was up $40-$80 I'd take it everyday.

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#120) On May 18, 2010 at 3:55 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Very true...I mean I would have eeked out probably another $40, so whatever, but they came to me for my meeting, and I was like DAMMIT, IVE BEEN WAITING FOR THE MARKET TO TANK AND ITS JUST NOW TANKING AND YOU WANT ME TO COME TO A MEETING!!! grrrr!

I went into DRYS at $4.98, trying to eek out a small profit if it can hit $5.20-$5.30.

Worth a trade.

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#121) On May 18, 2010 at 6:14 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I've been looking at a lot of stocks.  None of them look technically compelling long.

The Bank of Ireland (IRE) is worth either a long or short once it tests $6.50-$6.60.  If volume continues to expand and it breaks that level, then it is a short.  If it break and does a reversal then it is a long.

I'd probably give this a D+ trade set up b/c of Europe's current problems and the Euro problems.

 

I'm shorting Mittal (MT) and taking Worthington Industries (WOR) long.  They are both steel companies.  This is a pairs trade so it is set up market netural.

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#122) On May 18, 2010 at 7:12 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Sprint (S) broke resistance out of its cup and handle formation.  First target $5.00, next target $5.52.  Probably best tactic would to be a re-test of support then a push higher with volume coming in.

 

It has good strength.  The market was destroyed again today, and it was up.  Take notice.

 

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#123) On May 19, 2010 at 9:33 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Trying this long for gap fill.

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#124) On May 19, 2010 at 9:46 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Made some nice coin in 15 minutes.  Nice gap fill.

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#125) On May 19, 2010 at 9:59 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Bulls got baited.  Market is acting weak again.  That was so fast. 

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#126) On May 19, 2010 at 10:37 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

what is a fill gap if you don't mind me asking.

DRYS tanked...oh well, I'm trapped in that for now :(

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#127) On May 19, 2010 at 10:39 AM, kamshare (56.19) wrote:

Good Morning folks.

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#128) On May 19, 2010 at 11:17 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Morning, the correction in gold is coming with a fury. Glad I got out of that :)

DRYS is burning me, but gonna hold it for now.  Took small stake in so no worries.  This week has been madness.

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#129) On May 19, 2010 at 11:24 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Gap fill is when the market opens and if you look at a chart there's a 'gap' in it.  So a gap fill is when the price action crosses that opening.

 

So for me this morning, I traded JP Morgan Chase (JPM) long which opened lower than when it closed yesterday.  This morning even though it opened lower than yesterday's close it started moving back towards it 'hence fill the gap'.

You can long or short gaps.  They normally fill, but not always.  Today I went long, and normally I prefer going long in general.

I trade usually 9:30 AM(open)-10:30AM about 98% of the time.  The rest of the day I usually don't trade, but I'll watch (and do work for my full-time job).

Financials have been strong, Goldman Sachs has been strong as well today.  Also FAS which is the 3x leveraged ETF.

There was a positive diveragance with the financials vs. the rest of the market at the open, so I traded JPM, but GS would have worked as well. 

I think Sprint pushes up to $5 at some point.

I'd stay away from DryShips at this point.  The company is toxic fundamentally.  I bought it at $6.25 b/c I anticipated a push to $7, but got stopped out and took a loss at $6.  3:1 risk vs. reward.  Now it is under $5.

I'd take a loss on DRYS and get flat, but that's just me.  It's been a weak stock compared to the rest of the market.

 

This is just an FYI, kamshare too,....trading by no means is easy.  I know it is portrayed like it is, but it is not.  I spend 2hrs+ each night reviewing the macroeconomic headwinds occuring, and also reviewing different sectors to find stocks to trade.  Trading is portrayed as just clicking a mouse and easy money which is far from the truth.  Also trading is portrayed as a loser's game where there are only losers and no one makes money.  That's not true either.  Just ask Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who make more money trading than being a legitimate business.  If trading did not work, then neither of them should be as profitable as they are.  That's besides the point though.

 

Chart set-ups as well.  I also keep a notebook and review my winning/losing trades and also paper trade positions I don't buy in to review them as well.  In a sense even if I trade via technical analysis, I review pretty heavily fundamentally what is going on.

Trading and using stocks as trading tools is much different than actual investments.

 

I think if this is somewhat challenging the best thing to do is to continue to read up on it, and do due diligence (just like investing) to try and get a feel for trading. Write down trades on a notebook and review them.  There's also a lot of books out there that talk about technical analysis and trading. I cannot just give a ticker to buy and what price.  That's just giving the keys to a car without the headlights working.

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#130) On May 19, 2010 at 11:25 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

May 6, 2010- low of the day for DryShips is $4.76

 

If it gets below that, it may go lower so that should be your line in the sand with the stock.

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#131) On May 19, 2010 at 11:34 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I agree, bleh.

I'm waiting on gold.  If I take my loss on DRYS, it erases all my hard work this week grr.

 

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#132) On May 19, 2010 at 11:44 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Apple announces earnings 7/21 which is still a ways away.  The thing could keep dropping, but it will rally into earnings.  That will probably be my next heavy swing trade.

 

Since that is still many weeks away, I'll let Apple keep puking in the time being. 

 

Charts/price action does not lie.  Only people, analyst, Jim Cramer, pump 'n dump newsletters, CNBC, etc do.......

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#133) On May 19, 2010 at 12:42 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

US Steel has a bull flag building.  Above $49 there will be a nice short squeeze.  Then add above the HOD if the momentum continues.

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#134) On May 19, 2010 at 12:43 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) bull flag.

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#135) On May 19, 2010 at 1:33 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I went into ABX at $41.60

I went into DRYS at $4.84 to offset my losses (still losing a bit)

I went into BP at $45.55 

Halved my $300 loss for the day so far.   Hope to be back on par tomorrow.

 

I am starting to take this gold correction..7%-8% down for the day. Not bad snatching it up.  I think the Euro will continue to decline, but I'm not so sure its going to go below $1.20 anymore.  Seems to have found footing.  We'll see if I'm right, thus why I'm dipping my toe into oil and gold.

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#136) On May 19, 2010 at 1:51 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I'll be watching.  I'm not going to be around tommorow most likely during market hours.  I have to go out of town for business so I'll be keeping track via cell phone, but I'll be driving and doing other stuff. Not opening any new positions.  Friday will be whippy and volatile b/c of options expiration, so I am not trading Friday either. 

 

I'll doing something again next Monday.  In the meantime I'm just going to watch the market.

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#137) On May 19, 2010 at 2:06 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Probably a good move.

Happy traveling!

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#138) On May 19, 2010 at 2:40 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Thanks.  The market has been very, very hard to trade the past few weeks.  Normally I only trade the opening hour anyway, but the volatility is too much to be honest.  You may think a stock is going one way or the other, and you just feel like you are trapped in a clothes dryer or something, lol.

It's nice having a full-time job aside from trading. Keeps a steady cash flow coming in, plus gives you some time away from the market to clear your head.

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#139) On May 19, 2010 at 3:56 PM, kamshare (56.19) wrote:

Superdol - Thanks for your suggestions and explaining what is GAP fill. I will try to get some idea on Technical and Fundamental analysis. I will stay intocuh and will watch your moves aswell.

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#140) On May 19, 2010 at 4:39 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

No problem.  I talked to a few professional traders today who work for different hedge funds.  A lot of them tore themselves up today and lost money.  One guy got too heavy and lost a substantial amount.  Poor risk management.  Esp in this volatile time period. 

 

I quit after this morning, sometimes sitting on your hands is the best thing.

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#141) On May 20, 2010 at 9:46 AM, kamshare (56.19) wrote:

Good Morning.

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#142) On May 20, 2010 at 10:57 AM, kamshare (56.19) wrote:

Jasson - How are you doing today. 

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#143) On May 20, 2010 at 1:13 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Well I'm getting my ass kicked.  DRYS took a 7% hit so losing around $1,000 there.  Gold is holding up and so is Oil so I am losing, but not nearly as much as DRYS.

I was only down $8 at the close yesterday with DRYS. I should have sold and been done with it.  bleh.

oh well.  I'm stuck now, so wish me luck lol.

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#144) On May 20, 2010 at 3:27 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Euro gained and in a big way, I'll expect tomorrow to be much greener pastures..AT LEAST I HOPE!!

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#145) On May 20, 2010 at 11:08 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Terrible day. I was following it and I was pretty violent hence why I recommend paper trading kamshare. Not even remotely a market for pros even. The best part of the day was this very hot blonde which had a deep plunging shirt I met and was working with and paperwork crap, etc but I digress.

We closed below the 200 day moving average and the other moving averages are forming a bear cross. The next level to look for in support is the 5/6 low at 1056. Tommorow is options expiration. Stay away from the market. Do not buy or open new positions. Germany parliment is voting on the bailout contribution plus options expiration, etc. I'd wait till Monday to reassess the situation. Most traders I know are either net short or in cash.

If for whatever reason there is a hiccup with the German bailout look out below. I assure you the market will have a massive massive freefall. The risk vs reward is not compelling unless you are short not long.

It dosent seem that we can even get a small bounce and I wouldn't be surpirsed to see another 1-2% decline due to fund stop losses liquidations.

For me depending on what happens over the weekend I may consider a short macro positions or just stay in cash. Very small initial positions. If the markets move lower commodities are going to get dragged down with them.

A hedge fund manager I talked with is accumulating a position in the S&P 500 index for a macro bounce. I'll let him take that trade bc the trend is lower I do not counter trade the trend. I always trade with it.

This is just a wild guess but I am guessing that there will be a head and shoulders pattern put in the S&P 500 index. The market will complete the right shoulder via rallying into earnings in June and July then possibly break the neckline for a move lower. Just a guess but I though I'd throw it out there as speculation from what I am seeing now.

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#146) On May 21, 2010 at 9:02 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/50410161@N02/4626820182/

 

I'm not sure how to add photos, but this is what I am looking at in the S&P-500 index.  The 5/6 low, then Feb low of this year for bounces.  If they happen is up in the air, but that's what I'm looking for along with other traders.

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#147) On May 21, 2010 at 9:12 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

German parliment approved bailout which was expected. 

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#148) On May 21, 2010 at 9:29 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Rumors that Merrill is forcing hedge fund clients to post more collateral.  Not sure if it is true, but that is very problematic if it is.

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#149) On May 21, 2010 at 9:43 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Caught the RadioShack early.  Nice coin.  Wasn't planning on trading, but a trader hit me off early on buyout rumors.

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#150) On May 21, 2010 at 10:09 AM, kamshare (56.19) wrote:

Superdrol - Thank you for writing us and keeping us posted about the market. Jasson oh sorry to hear that you had a bad day.

ALL GREEN

 

Guys what are you thoughts on TECD & SBH ?? 

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#151) On May 21, 2010 at 10:22 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Hi kamshare, thanks for writing.  TECD has been moving in a downtrend the last 6 months and has been relatively weak in comparison to the market....back the S&P-500 and NASDAQ has been going up and up TECD was weak.  As a long position that is a bad idea.  When stocks act like this and do not move with the market (with the exception of biotechnology), this is a bad sign.

 

That is probably the #1 thing to initially look for is how it is responds to the indexes it is involved with.

 

Sally Beauty Holdings (SBH) is a bit more optimistic.  Take a look at SBH and TECD side by side.  Sally Beauty Holdings (SBH) has been moving upwards with the market vs. TECD.  This is a good sign.  There is a gap fill to $9.90-$9.92 something like that.  Sally Beauty Holdings could be worth a long gap fill to fill that gap.  Have to wait and see.

 

-SD

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#152) On May 21, 2010 at 10:26 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

If the S&P-500 can close green, that is a good sign and is compelling as a long in the short-term as a reversal candlestick.  Then again just closing green seems to be asking for too much.

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#153) On May 21, 2010 at 10:33 AM, kamshare (56.19) wrote:

Thanks superdrol. How about Euro ? Any chances of dollar getting stronger than now ? 

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#154) On May 21, 2010 at 11:06 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

honestly, I'm not sure about the Euro.  I tried trading foreign exchange awhile ago and it is very, very difficult.  There are many, many macro headwinds, plus the markets are open 24 hours/day for 5 days.  If I had to guess though, the Euro is near or close to the bottom as there has been a lot of bad news priced in, but I am not a currency expert.

 

I suggested to a bond trader to consider looking to short 10-yr Treasury bonds b/c the ultra low yield right now is not going to remain long-term. 

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#155) On May 21, 2010 at 11:22 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I think the dollar, with all its problems, is no longer "cheap" and gold is pegged typically to the dollar, so that should come down some.  I'm expecting another $50-100/oz drop in  gold (at least I hope, b/c I'm hoping on if that happens).

I have a lot of oil stocks, DRYS (rebounding..looking to unload) and gold.

I think the euro is finally getting legs, which should mean gold goes down, oil goes up, stocks go up.  Lets see, cuz this market is just nutty at the moment.

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#156) On May 21, 2010 at 11:34 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

At like 9:35am I got a heads up on RadioShack being looked at as being bought out at $25-26.  Probably some hedge fund idiots starting rumors (which of course is illegal), but they do it anyway.  Then the 'herd' comes running in.  I bought at market price then sold about 5 min later.  Left some money on the table, but it was a pure momentum move.

 

Another popular hedge fund pump 'n dump is E-Trade (ETFC).  I buy that stock purely b/c every 2-3 months there's some pump 'n dump newsletter or rumor that they are being bought out which I sell into.  That's always an easy 7-10%.

 

There's a lot of corruption in the stock market, but whatever.  It is what it is.

If we close green and put in a reversal candlestick then shorts may get nervous and cover.

 

BP keeps going lower.  Pure bear trap and a good example of why risk management is important.  Cheap is a relative term and things can always get cheaper.

 

DryShips is making a bull flag.  Worth a momentum long trade past HOD.  Long-term the price is capped at whatever they did their convertible offering at.  High risk play.  $6.15 or something like that. 

 

Overall good week.  Made money.

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#157) On May 21, 2010 at 1:32 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4020/4626820182_0f0717ce10_o.jpg">


http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4020/4626820182_0f0717ce10_o.jpg" target="_blank">Enlarge

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#158) On May 21, 2010 at 1:49 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea I think DRYS long is around $6, I'll dump long before most likely.  I just want it off my books.

By then I'm hoping the gold correction has hit full force and I'll go into that.  Oil should be back in the mid 70's by then.  That is if this scenario plays out.  We could see the euro get creamed then the market goes below 10K again, and we all lose our shirts again.

I'm still not completely sold on the bulls coming back.   But I'm stuck so I don't have a choice lol.

Good work tho making your money!

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#159) On May 21, 2010 at 3:23 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Market was strong today, but I think any rallies people will keep selling into.

 

enlarge

 

This is an updated S&P-500 chart I constructed in the event that we close positive which does not look likely.  It also gives points of reference on where too play oversold bounces.  The guy I know sold off his position today, he accumulated pretty heavy yesterday and a little the day before.  There will be one more chance later on for a bounce, but all in all the downtrend is still intact.  The blue line represents the 200 day moving average which is now acting as resistance.

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#160) On May 21, 2010 at 3:59 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Someone hit the, "HOLY $HIT BUY ANYTHING NOT NAILED DOWN TO THE FLOOR" button.

Wow what the hell just happened?

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#161) On May 21, 2010 at 4:13 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

The intraday low on 5/6 on the S&P-500 was 1,065.  We tested thru that low, then did a reversal candlestick and filled the gap in about 30 minutes which is pretty standard.

 

What the reversal does is stop out any longs, and baits in short sellers and reverses.  The blackboxes do this.  The entire day could not get below that 1,065 level on the S&P-500 and in the last 30 minutes of the day, a lot of short sellers covered into the close.

 

For any trader, trading on Friday is challenging b/c typically the volume is thin, and the weekend hold uncertainty, esp with the way things are right now.

 

I released a messed up chart earlier this morning, but I released the one above at about 3:30pm b/c that is what I was expecting to happen.  (See post #159).

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#162) On May 21, 2010 at 4:25 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Hmm so you're saying 1100 is a resistance level if I read that right?

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#163) On May 21, 2010 at 4:41 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Approx that's correct.  The lowest circle is where I'd accumulate a initial position.  Then if it pushes thru and closes near the second circle, that's where I'd accumulate a second position.  Then again third circle, etc, etc...... The idea is not to just buy randomly just because.  The reason why I say 'close' is b/c the market is pretty volatile, so a close basis (for me) shows a bit more certainty vs jumping all around during the day.

 

The third circle has a lot of buyers (supply) up in that area.  The market does in general b/c ppl bought in and would like to get back to even without a loss (like DRYS) which creates that selling pressure in that area (or likely to create that selling pressure).

 

 

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#164) On May 21, 2010 at 5:15 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Gotcha, this where you take an initial stake, then a smaller stake if it gets to your 2nd bubble, then sell at the 3rd?

I'm trying to understand how you're doing this.  lol.

I basically look at support levels and where we are positioned at that time. 

I'd like to hear your theory on when to buy, when to sell relative to the S&P support levels.

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#165) On May 21, 2010 at 5:42 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

That's correct.  so 30%, 30%, 40% or however you prefer to position in.  This is why position management is important, b/c if it tanks you lose out on the 30% you put up, not 100%.

 

The reason why I say close basis is b/c it may not hold.  In my previous posts I said if we closed today under 1,065 I'd get net short macro.  But we ripped into the close and closed higher, so despite crossing it I am not getting short.

A lot of blackboxes and algos trade based on price action, not fundamentals.  A lot of traders also look at the charts as well who have enormous amounts of money.  So both these essentially is a self-fullfilling prophecy and why this has some merit.  Purely b/c everyone is behaving in the same manner. 

 

The best thing is to trade stocks with the market, when you try and single out stocks  that countermove the market like

-Market going down vs. stock going up (strong stock: Apple)

-Market going up vs. stock going down (weak stock like Google)

vice versa, you are prone to reversals and some uncertainty.

 

The best thing to do is buy strong stock that move up with the market and short (or do not buy) stocks moving down with the market.  Even if the market is tanking and the stock is holding up, it may give out at any point.  With a few exceptions like NBG, BP, TM I do not trade against the overall trend.

 

Those instances above have more of a fundamental catalyst (emotion, politics, news, etc) that make it worthy, not the chart itself.

 

 

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#166) On May 22, 2010 at 12:12 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Ok so basically you are just following the action, not fighting the market.  Market going down or breaks a support, you go net short (DXD, QID, SDS, TBT)

When I use these vehicles, like I did the other day, I usually am looking at the over all trend, make the trade, and then follow for a while and get the hell out.  Ultrashorting seems to work when you are following the trend.

For instance, I saw the euro tank the other day, and DXD didn't correct as much as QID and SDS did, so went into that and made a bit of money.

now I see there is a short the euro ETF which I may or may not get into here soon.  

I'm going to look at the S&P a bit more now that you are teaching me some tricks.  Just anothr tool in the arsenal :)

And I do the same thing you do, split the money into 3rds, I usually go in hard at first, then ease in, but have lost more than won doing that, so may use your approach.

Net the week, I'm down $200 (or roughly 0.5%).  Not bad.  Hope I make out next week :)

 

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#167) On May 23, 2010 at 2:26 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

being down $200 isn't bad.  I lost $2,000 in about 5 minutes during that flash crash day.  Made some of it back during the snap back up, and was already positive the next day.  Winning and losing days is part of the game.  Most ppl cannot detach themselves emotionally to the value of money which is why most ppl cannot be successful in trading.  I'll concide to that.  So if I'm up $5,000-$6,000 in one day or losing $5,000-$6,000 in one day it does not really affect me.  It did initially, but as you continue to trade, the monetary amount of money is inconsequential.  Again that's the difference between a good trader vs. not good.

 

I use the SDS and SSO for trading the S&P-500 index.  Those are both double leveraged.  So is DXD and the others that are traded.  Occasionally I'll trade the Nasdaq, but normally I just trade the S&P-500.  I don't trade the Dow.  Just an FYI, the leveraged ETFs are reset on a daily basis, so the compounding effect is problematic in the long-term.  In fact, it is problematic right now due to the volatility.  You need to keep that in mind b/c the leveraged ETFs are not long or even short-term holdings.  They are trading vehicles.

 

Again you just have to adapt to what the market is giving you.  The SDS/SSO work great right now b/c of the ridiculous volatility in the broad indexes, but that is normally not the case so individual stocks also are good as well.

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#168) On May 23, 2010 at 2:58 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=395669&t=01001545002054304245

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#169) On May 24, 2010 at 7:40 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I'm still getting long the SSO at the open.  Risk vs. Reward is still looking good and even better b/c I get to buy lower.  Stop at $33.65.

Oversold situation.  I'm expecting a down up within the first hour of trading.

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#170) On May 24, 2010 at 7:49 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

wow so you're expecting an up day today eh?  euro is way down.

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#171) On May 24, 2010 at 7:59 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I dunno about an up day, but I think that off the open, there is a trade long.  There's going to be a lot of tree shaking of weak hands.  Bought a little Apple already pre-mkt.

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#172) On May 24, 2010 at 8:06 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Well I hope for my sake you're right because I'm still stuck in DRYS.

I don't mind a down day, but no 200-300 down days please!  That's going to hurt :)

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#173) On May 24, 2010 at 8:12 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I traded DryShips before and it got me.  Even if the market is up 2%+, DryShips moves dead sideways or even down.  I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but that thing is unpredictable.  The fundamentals are very ugly, and it is one scandal away from being the next Enron or something to that effect.

I'd sell DryShips into any up day or if it goes green.

Take caution.

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#174) On May 24, 2010 at 8:19 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Today will be kinda tricky.  Depends if the market has already priced in Spain's problems.

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#175) On May 24, 2010 at 8:33 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Btw, take a look at this post I created yesterday. 

 

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=395669&t=01001545002054304245

If we don't make a new high for the year Q2 earnings season, then that is bearish for the rest of the year.   There's still a long bounce for the right shoulder to develop though.

 

Sold Apple.  Didn't feel like waiting till the open.  Still going long SSO.  If we cannot pull up the S&P-500 after the first hour, then I'll probably roll out of that position. 

 

I remember not too long ago when I traded BP and it was at $45 or something, now it is under $43. 

 

All I gotta say is BP= DEAD MONEY.

 

Anyone that bought that thing for more than a trade is only fooling themselves into thinking there's legitimate value in that stock.  Combined with potential Government withdrawal contracts which will tremendously affect earnings, lawsuits, clean up costs.......the stock is finished.  Bulls got baited.

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#176) On May 24, 2010 at 8:38 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yeah DRYS goes up and down all the time, I just thought it was at it low so figured it was worth a trade. 

BP I am in my IRA's in and got in around $44-$45.  I am thinking about dumping it, although their dividend comes in July so I may hold for that.  I'm only down like 3-4%, their dividend is close to 8% so even if it goes down more, I'll break even. I guess we'll see.

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#177) On May 24, 2010 at 8:49 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

When things like BP happen, you either have to trade it or keep tight stops. If you are feeling risky, hold on to it.  When they legitimately stop the oil leak, I mean actually permanently stop the oil leak, the stock may jump up.  Not any junk shot or cap or anything like that, but actually fixing the issue.  The reports have said they spent already 750 million in clean up. I know they have money, but if they revoke the Government contracts that's a massive blow to their earnings.

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#178) On May 24, 2010 at 10:06 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Really choppy day.  Bought SSO @ $35.76 off the open, sold at $35.83 just right now.  Not the kind of follow through I was expecting.  Very, very choppy.

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#179) On May 24, 2010 at 10:12 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

We may rip to the upside later on, but the volume is anemic again, so the spreads are sloppy creating a choppy action.  Cannot get good price execution in that.

Reminds me of the flash crash day when the price action was acting like a fish taken out of water and thrown on deck.

 

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#180) On May 24, 2010 at 10:35 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea I just got to work from the gym, looks like DRYS gaves me a good surprise and went up a bit.  I'm ok with that :)  Still in the loss column, but chopped it by 75% over the past 2 days.  Lets hope it goes to $5.50-$6 like i thought it would.

BP needs to stop it, but I mean even if they take 3-4 billion in losses, they can take that without a sweat.  But if the gov't does yank some contracts, then yes, you're right.  I doubt that will happen, but these days, everyone is looking to point fingers and divert attention to the CF of an economy we have.

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#181) On May 24, 2010 at 10:45 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

S&P-500 is ripping to the upside like I was expecting.  Some guys like the extreme volatility like this morning, but I prefer to sit them out even if I have a certain expectation of where the market is heading.  I lose money on the execution actually, not the overall market direction.

I'm sure a lot of weak hands and rookies were shaken out this morning.

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#182) On May 24, 2010 at 11:18 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I don't mind the volatility, but to a point.  I've lost 30-40% in a day, and gained 60% in 3 days.  I've been up as much as $15K over the past year, and down 6K....I'm about even right now and have learned a ton investing over the past year or so. 

It's an emotional rollercoaster that's for sure :)   I remove my emotions from it as much as I can, and just stay the course.  Sometimes that works, sometimes that's my worst enemy because I don't sell when I should.  I'm starting to learn to take profits now, so going into this year, hopefully I can make some money on what I've learned.

Market is choppy, but not nuts.  I'm up on everything I own (oil, gold, DRYS)  Decent day, but nothing to get a hard on over. :)

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#183) On May 24, 2010 at 11:34 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Good to hear things are working out.  Are you in oil via USO ?

Still a choppy day.  I'm glad I sat this one out.  Haha at first I thought I was going to have to take a loss on my SSO.  Then during the whipsawing, my order was able to get executed a tad bit higher than when I bought it.

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#184) On May 24, 2010 at 11:52 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

USO and BP.

I'm one of the unfortunate ones that got roped into BP....but like I said, they are in my IRAs, so not looking short term, looking 20yrs out.  BP will weather this, pay their dues, take a huge publicity hit, but it'll be ok. Their dividend makes me feel warm and fuzzy.

 

If the Euro can get some teeth, short term, I see gold correcting a lot more.  It made a bit of a comeback today, I may sell on the strength and see where it goes.

 

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#185) On May 24, 2010 at 2:19 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

S&P-500 index:  1,086 important fib. level.  Seems to be frozen to it.

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#186) On May 24, 2010 at 2:32 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Should we expect another push up at the end of the day like Friday since all the shorts need to cover? :)

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#187) On May 24, 2010 at 3:09 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

probably not.  The reason that happened on Friday is b/c the markets are closed Sat/Sun so there is essentially 2 days for uncertainty.  Being that the markets open again tommorow it will not do that.

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#188) On May 24, 2010 at 4:02 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Well it headed off a cliff late, shocker.

It's a telling sign that traders of large hedge funds to rule the markets.

It's almost a turn off to me, there's just no such thing as "investing" anymore.  It's all trading.  I may just exit the market all together because these days, its just too "rigged" in my opinion.

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#189) On May 24, 2010 at 5:35 PM, kamshare (56.19) wrote:

Good Evening guys - Couldn't login this morning. Please let me know your thoughts on IRE.

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#190) On May 24, 2010 at 5:43 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Probably best to stay away from IRE, AIB, and NBG.  There is a lot of headline risk related to Europe.  If you are going to trade a sector, technology is probably the best at the moment.

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#191) On May 24, 2010 at 5:44 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Investing has changed since the tech bubble burst.  The buy and hold concept is sort of dead.  Depending on how long your hold time frame is, but I think people are more aware than ever when to take profits.

 

This is partly why I am just invested in the indexes.  At least you perform the same as the market without company specific risk.

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#192) On May 24, 2010 at 5:58 PM, kamshare (56.19) wrote:

Thanks superdrol. Couple of my friends are stuck with IRE and they don't know what to do. They are already running 20% low on the buy price and not sure what to do.

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#193) On May 24, 2010 at 6:19 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

IRE I'd stay away from.

I've been watching it, and no matter what the Euro has been doing lately (up/down vs the dollar), it seems to want to go down and keep goign down.  That's definitely one I'm staying away from.

NBG has actually been gaining when the Euro gains, but again, who knows when the Euro is going to gain or not.  If it doesn't react to a Euro gain, it may be worth a small bet that it goes up.  But that's about what its worth, a bet.  I'd rather go try at a hand of poker myself.

Well the market is floundering around, and the traders definitely have control.  Just seems like that's all that's left these days, traders.  Well maybe better luck tomorrow. (fat chance)  The market wants to go lower, and I'm stuck now lol.  Lets hope it heads higher one of these days so I can exit and trade.  No more holding the bag anymore :)

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#194) On May 24, 2010 at 7:03 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

IRE should have been stopped out.  One of the hardest things about investing and trading is knowning when you have a loss and to take it early.  Being down 20% is way too much.  Losses should never exceed 5-8% max.  Once you get that your losses spiral out of control.  I'd take the loss but that's just me.  I never average into losing trades nor is any loss to big to take.  It's about risk management.

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#195) On May 25, 2010 at 7:30 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

More losses today...lovely :(

 

Guess I'm in this for the long haul and can only pray I get my money back lol.  Should have stayed out of it like I was planning on doing.

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#196) On May 25, 2010 at 7:57 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

the most important part of investing or trading is managing your risk under any circumstances.  I know a few people as well who are also holding onto positions.  Every single person I know I tell them to take their profits and take their losses.

When you take no action, your losses spiral out of control and your profits evaporate. 

Hindsight is 20/20, but for example DryShips you should have taken your losses a long time ago when they were small.

Another person I know bought BP before the crisis and was actually UP on the position.  When the crisis hit, I asked him if he still had a profit.  He said, "Yes, but not as much due to the drop."  I told him to sell BP anyway and take the small gain.  (he was even fortunate to still have a profit).  Of course he did not and is watching it go down by the day. 

 

Case in point, this is the hardest part of trading or investing is the discipline to take losses.  The only difference is investing people are just fooling themselves for a longer time frame. 

 

All charts are broken technically in all sectors.  Anything at this point is a daytrade, and why I don't hold stuff overnight right now b/c of the risk involved.

S&P-500, last level is 2/5 intraday low of 1,044.  If we close below that, next stop is 1,023 then 1,000......then who knows........

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#197) On May 25, 2010 at 8:03 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Moving away from technicals for a minute, fundamentally, the economic data has been very positive for the US.  What a lot of people thought would be an underperforming sector (consumer discretionary) has actually been a very good performing sector YTD.  I think the market undercredits the consumer in general, and the flight to safety in US Treasuries shows there is still a very high demand for US back debt.

 

The real estate market and municipal issues in the US are still a problem, but as most Governments function, it is not really a problem until it spirals out of control like Greece unfortunately.

 

For me personally, one thing that really worries me that could cause the market to plunge into an abyss is if there is a terrorist attack on the US.  There have been enough crazy bastards in NYC trying that and also the flight in Detroit last year.

 

I was in Europe last Nov (back when the Euro was 1.60 or so) and I took that same flight from Amsterdam to Detroit that the guy was on in Dec.  Scary stuff.

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#198) On May 25, 2010 at 9:59 AM, kamshare (56.19) wrote:

Good Morning Folks.

Ohh man All RED. Very scary.

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#199) On May 25, 2010 at 10:25 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

It's hard to trade stuff like this.  When it gets this wild, you are just gambling at this point.  Looking to see if stuff fills its gap, but not trading capital today.

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#200) On May 25, 2010 at 10:47 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea, I should have sold into yesterday's strength.  I knew it then, but I missed the opportunity, just wasn't by a computer.

Well I'll pray for myself that there are updays head, at least some to cut some of my losses.  Then its just day trading at that point like you, this market is just too volatile and can head over a cliff in a matter of seconds.  

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#201) On May 25, 2010 at 11:06 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

don't dwell on the past.  just take it as a learning experience.  you gotta take your losses though.  there is no substitute for it.  I took a macro loss back when the Goldman Sachs SEC fraud charges hit.

 

To be honest, that is what started this whole damn thing.  Ever since those SEC charges, it has been downhill from there.

 

I'm not even trading right now.  The market is not finding any traction, and 2-3% losses overnight is too much.  That is why there was a short covering rally last Friday and why I do not  keep stuff overnight.

 

Now you have Spain, North Korea, Oil spill, Goldman Sachs fraud charges,....it does not end.  I think the best time to get into a macro long is towards July when earnings come out again.  Right now is best to just sit on your hands.

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#202) On May 25, 2010 at 2:12 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Sold ABX on its 2 days of strength for a slight $40 loss, oh well.

Still holding the bag on DRYS, I'm going to ride it out.  Probably being stubborn but I'm going to wait until the Euro eeks out some gains, and the market reacts.  I'm not going to panic sell into the madness.  If it goes down another 5%, what does it matter if I took a $1500 loss, or a $1800 loss?

I'd rather take my chances gaining most of it back on a strong day.  I think my risk vs rewards right now holding steady on my picks will prove to be a better bet.  We'll see if I'm right. 

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#203) On May 25, 2010 at 2:35 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Right now is just pure panic so that is a correct decision not to sell into that.  People do drastic things because of emotion and it is easy to fall prey into it.  The ABX trade was good even if it was a $40 loss.  I'm not sure how much you put into it, but the cash you got back is dry powder for later on.  As I said before things are extreme now, but with cash aside there is always a chance to pick up better opportunities.

As tacky as it sounds, loss is part of learning the stock market similar to a tutition fee for college.  Lord knows I've lost money and everyone else has too (except Bernie Madoff...ha).  Don't worry dude, I've been there myself.  Brush it off and live to see another day.

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#204) On May 25, 2010 at 2:51 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yea, I was feeling pretty crappy, but DRYS came back, as did BP a bit.  I guess we'll see how it plays out, the Euro is coming back on strong, if that keeps up, I think we'll see brighter skys lol.

I father told me, it feels great when you're up, but feels even worse when you're down.  Remember the down days, and you'll play investing very conservatively.  His #1 rule, don't lose money.  If you can accomplish this, you're 1/2 way there.  So far, I'm losing, but in the grand scheme of things, its not that much.

Lets put it this way, I had to stop watching, and when I came back, it was better. Lets hope we can continue it into tomorrow.

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#205) On May 25, 2010 at 3:26 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

An example of how I take losses, is either I set up a pre-set price or percentage I am willing to lose.  For instance, I had a dry spell sometime last year.  I cannot remember when but I serious had about 14 straight losing trade lol.  Not to say that I didn't mind b/c I did and that's a lot of straight losses to have in a row, but I still stayed disciplined about my losses.

so I used a dollar amount which roughly equated to $80/trade.  If I did not cut it off small, then they would require more profits to average out.

 

So $80*14 trade was around -$1,120+ commission.  This is a very bad scenario.  This is not common by any means.

Ok, so during earnings season which I had a feeling Apple would run up into.  (I was expecting $245 TOPS, not $280 or whatever crazy price it got to.)  I traded 100-200 shares throughout that entire period.  $1.00/share in Apple was common during that big run up, so I was able to eliminate the previous losses earlier in about 3 days and make money the rest.

I don't ever lose more than 30% of my prior weeks gains.  So if the previous week I made $1,000, then I cannot lose more than $300/week.  If I exceed that then I'm done for the week.  If I make $5,000 etc, etc......just using that principal helps preserve capital. 

And with that I've also had a string of winning trades.  My record is 40 straight trades in a row with no losses.

Majority of the time I am 4/5 approx. with some exceptions.  So normally one losing day a week, 4 positive days with no losses.  Takes awhile to get to that point, but it is something that takes a lot of practice.  Like BP when I caught that over the weekend then sold it into that pop on Monday back when it was $45/share something like that.

 

 

If I were this guy: 

http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2010/04/30/why-im-down-more-than-80-and-how-to-avoid-my-mista.aspx

 

I would be spending over 1 year just to BREAKEVEN much less make money.  This is also why I do not average down (personal preference, but that's just me.)

 

Profits-losses=real profits.

 

I think I already told this story, but this guy I know scored a nice 300% in Ford b/c he bought in at $4/share and it got to $12.  Probably going lower now for good.  Anyways, it does not matter b/c he has losses out the @$$ from his other useless stocks so it's a trite accomplishment.  Btw, he didn't take any profits either so he's still holding that junk stock going down along with the other garbage in his portfolio like Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, AIG, MBIA, etc, etc.................

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#206) On May 25, 2010 at 3:28 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Btw, just calling this out right now, but Apple is a winning lottery ticket right now.  That thing will run back up to $260-$270 no question in a few months.  New iPhone and all that other stuff.  Easiest money I've ever seen.  Fact I might pick up a small position right now.

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#207) On May 25, 2010 at 3:51 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Looks like we may rip to the upside last minute.  If the S&P-500 closes green today that is super bullish.

 

p.s. Amanda Drury CNBC= wow

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#208) On May 25, 2010 at 4:03 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

lol, sweet.  a green close on the S&P-500.  Another reversal candlestick.  Pretty bullish.

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#209) On May 25, 2010 at 4:31 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yeah, definitely a good pick up if you get it now.

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#210) On May 25, 2010 at 4:32 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I picked up DRYS at $4.38 (1000 shares)

 

I'm up almost 5%, offseting the other shares losses.  I'm about $400-$500 loss now on the remaining shares, and I definitely think there is a bull run tmorrow.  I may sell into the strength tomorrow.

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#211) On May 25, 2010 at 4:38 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Amanda Drury is definitely a cutie.

I'm not a blonde fan though, I'm more of the dark, olive skinned fan myself.

My fiance is italian and fits that bill to a T.  

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#212) On May 25, 2010 at 4:44 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I think we may move sideways/moderate rally into the weekend.  Esp towards the end of the week there may be another last minute short covering rally into the long Memorial Day Weekend.  Extra trading day off may scare some short sellers.

 

Got Apple at $244.80

Picked up Sandisk (SNDK) at $42.75

 

SNDK is already green, so is Apple.  I'll hold on to Apple longer, but I think Sandisk will continue higher tommorow.  It is holding in its top trading range and will most likely push thru resistance at some point.

Keeping an eye on VMWare(VMW) as well, but didn't get in.  Same with Netflix (NFLX).  Strong stocks too.

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#213) On May 25, 2010 at 4:49 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yes, I like VMW, very strong and it went down amost 5% today at one point.  I was very tempted.

 

It's too bad I didn't get into sprint when you said to get in. Geez 20% in 2 days! That would have been nice.

I need a nice bull run for drys so I can get rid of my high positions at $4.87 and $5.00

 

 

 

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#214) On May 25, 2010 at 4:52 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Nice thread man! Looks like you are going after UltraLong's record :)

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#215) On May 25, 2010 at 5:47 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

hey thanks binve.  I'm thinking about starting my own blog like yours where I post charts and whatnot.  The only thing is time committment, but I am considering it at some point.

 

jason-

 

Sprint has been extremely strong when the market was weak.  Also it was putting in a cup and handle formation.  So for me both those were a hint that it was going to go higher.

 

I manage with my mom a family account.  It is I trade stocks/options and she trades bonds.  We have several account, but this one is our 'active' account seperate from other investment ones.  Reason we have this is b/c there is a lot of cash flow trades between trading bonds/stocks/options.  The sit back and watch your assets go up and right back down is not what I'd consider good practice, so this one we put together last year and have been messing around with it.  I bought Sprint in that account in Feb this year during the first fake out correction after it filled the gap back in Nov. last year.  Got it as a swing, not really a daytrade at $3.29 I think.

 

Honestly, I looked at Sprint from time to time since last Feb (which is a decent length hold for me) and it always seemed to keep going up despite the market, so sure enough when it got upgraded by Goldman Sachs I sold into that around $5/share. 

Missed out on a little extra of the move, but that's ok.  I think Sprint is a decent company that is looked at as a 'dog.'  It has decent free cash flow, has a guaranteed demand due to wireless (i know there are competitors, but it is different than retail), and is aggressively coming out with a 4G network.

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#216) On May 25, 2010 at 5:50 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I also have in that account IBM which I got at $126 and a little underwater in (not by much though).  I think IBM is also an overlooked value stock from a fundamental aspect which I am holding for a swing.  Looking for that to go to $135-$140 at some point as well.

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#217) On May 25, 2010 at 6:17 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

rumor ECB is doing something overnight.  Shorts getting slaughtered afterhours.

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#218) On May 25, 2010 at 6:25 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

enlarge

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#219) On May 26, 2010 at 7:17 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

looking like a bullish day :)

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#220) On May 26, 2010 at 7:32 AM, Aventador (< 20) wrote:

Bought RIG @ $ 52,70 yesterday @ the open. If you have some money waiting on the sidelines it's a good time in the markets to do some bargain hunting. BP seems to be a strong buy at these levels as well, regardless if they succeed today. But if they do manage to plug the hole today, it should pop nicely straight away..

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#221) On May 26, 2010 at 8:07 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I agree.  BP may get a small pop once they legitimately plug the leak.  Also there may be a short squeeze once they do.  If it get going and I can see the short squeeze occuring and by a computer I will buy 1,000 market order off the tape into the squeeze.  I've done it before and they can be profitable when done correctly.  If you look at Taser (TASR) chart, there was one earlier this year.

 

I'm going to sell Sandisk at the open.  Depending on where Apple is I might also sell it.  Not to say Apple isn't a good hold into earnings, but I picked it up at 100 shares $244.80.  I think I can get Apple around $240 if not lower later on.  Just looking for a better entry than $244.

I have 500 shares of Sandisk I picked up at $42.75.  Just a trade.  Depends on how it handles its recent resistance.

 

Probably a short covering rally into the weekend.

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#222) On May 26, 2010 at 8:09 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Futures up big.  Shorts getting slaughtered.  Don't be fooled into thinking today is the end of the bear market and the selling is over.  Things can always change on a dime, and technically the longer period chart is still bearish.

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#223) On May 26, 2010 at 8:54 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I'm selling into the strength this morning.  Apple is up +$4.36 pre-mkt.

Sold Sandisk:  $43.76

Sold Apple:  $249.61

 

flat for now.  I have some long dated S&P-500 put options (10 contracts), but those are not due till 2012. 

 

That's about the extent of my account.  I have other stuff in our joint account, but my own that's what I have ATM.

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#224) On May 26, 2010 at 9:33 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Mkt looks like it will roll over early.  Getting in short small in the S&P-500.

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#225) On May 26, 2010 at 9:37 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I'll let the short position in S&P-500 work against me up to a certain extent.  I'm in small anyway, and it is more of a hedge against my puts vs. an outright short.

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#226) On May 26, 2010 at 9:39 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Out of DRYS with a $520 profit :)  gotta love it

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#227) On May 26, 2010 at 9:41 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Adding a little bit more short here.

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#228) On May 26, 2010 at 9:41 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I bought SDS because Euro getting pounded.

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#229) On May 26, 2010 at 9:42 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

nice jason !  good to hear the trade worked out well.  I remember you got in at a nice price yesterday.

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#230) On May 26, 2010 at 9:43 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Same.  Euro is weak and Goldman Sachs is getting smoked.  Apple has peaked for the day.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a rug pull later on today.

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#231) On May 26, 2010 at 9:53 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

100 shares of SDS @ $34.71

another 100 of SDS @ $34.80

I got in pretty early off the open so my stop loss isn't very large.

stop @ $34.68

 

 

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#232) On May 26, 2010 at 9:56 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Agreed.  I bought in when the S&P was 12.xx or 1.10% up.

i think it's blown its steam, this is the up day I so sorely needed to get out of DRYS. I bought 1000 shares yesterday at 4.38 and dollar cost avg'd my way out.  I know you don't prefer doign that, nor do I...but I had a feeling an up day was due.   It erased $1500+ in losses and gave me a $520 gain, nearly $2000 swing :)  That excites me lol.

I'm goign to give SDS a bit more time, I'm up very small amount ($34.74 is when I got in)

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#233) On May 26, 2010 at 10:10 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

good to hear you got out of the DRYS.  It was getting pretty heavy.  I got stopped out of SDS with a small loss.  Averaged in with Apple/Sandisk profits, net-net still a gain.  Have to see how the S&P-500 handles the 200 day moving average, then 1150.

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#234) On May 26, 2010 at 10:13 AM, kamshare (56.19) wrote:

Guys - Good Morning! Nice to hear that you booked profits. Hope you have a nice day. I am reading your posts and your approach seems to be very interesting. I am feeling as if I have put the money.

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#235) On May 26, 2010 at 10:15 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Wow, the Euro is down more than a penny, the rug is about to be pulled on this rally, at least I'm hoping :)

I bought 200 shares of SDS, down about $30 over all.  Not a big deal.  I'm going to play this one patiently to see if my gut is right.

I've put a stop in when my losses go to $60

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#236) On May 26, 2010 at 10:42 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

This is part of the reason why I hate being short is b/c when things fall they fall so fast you rarely have time to catch the bulk of the move unless you get super early.  Every now and then I anticipate it with a tight stop.  At some point it will keel over, but until it looks ready again, I'll sit back.

The euro is weak again.

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#237) On May 26, 2010 at 10:51 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Very weak, I've doubled down on my short when it hit 34.50, in now for 400 shares.

This has to reverse at some point, even if its tomorrow.  The euro is pummeled, gold is rising again.

I was going to start looking into shorting interest rates as well.  Just started hearing about municipalities starting to file chapter 9, and they expect a total of 11 of them at the very least.

Hmm...

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#238) On May 26, 2010 at 10:57 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

The reversal has started :)

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#239) On May 26, 2010 at 11:02 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

i wrote about municipalities in another blog post.  The cracks have been showing for awhile now.  It is not talked about yet, but it will become very problematic long-term.  Municipalities/State Governments do not move as quickly or efficiently as private corporations due to political headwinds.  So any quick changes are out the window and fundamentals will detoriate in the meantime.  We sold off all our municipal bonds in the past few weeks and have money in CDs in the bank and short-term Treasury bonds.

 

SDS is coming back. 

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#240) On May 26, 2010 at 11:07 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

SDS I'm now up.  Was down about $50 at the most, then doubled down, now I'm dollar cost avg and up about $120.

Good day for Jason! :)   I'm going to stay patient with this one and let it brew.  I think we're going to be in for a big downturn here.

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#241) On May 26, 2010 at 11:08 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Euro down almost 2 pennies now.

Wow.

This has to reverse, and badly.

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#242) On May 26, 2010 at 11:20 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Goldman Sachs down as well.  Apple getting weak.  The Euro is weak, but the market is up.  Someone is on the wrong side of the trade.  Someone also mentioned to me the divergence between the Euro and market.

 

I'm not going to chase the short position, but I'm glad I got out of my longs.  A short against resistance at the 200 day moving average, I may give it a try again.  I hate being short b/c it happens too fast, so your precision has to be impeccable to capitalize on it.

 

Everyone has their area or technique they are good at.  Mine is options and commodities in general.  Another guy I know is the master at trading junky penny stocks, another trades only energy, etc, etc...depends on your preference.  I suck at trading gold as well. 

Sprint is getting ripped apart, wow. 

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#243) On May 26, 2010 at 11:28 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Yeah I saw Sprint, people taking profits on a strong day.

No one is believing this is an up trend, just an up day on a down trend.  I'm glad most of my long positions are out.  I think commodities long term will rule...I've said it over and over.  So i'm keeping these positions in my IRA's.

TANK BABY TANK!  

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#244) On May 26, 2010 at 11:31 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

You gotta be nimble in the market and adapt.  Last year I'd hold stuff for days at a time before selling.  Now basically everything is a daytrade or just an overnighter.

Market is continuing to slip and cannot rally to this morning's high.  A rug pull is probably going to happen  The bears are putting more bullets in the revolver......................

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#245) On May 26, 2010 at 11:36 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

nice call on the SDS.  You had conviction to stick with that one. 

Lol, and to think just a few days ago you were wanting to bail completely out of the market.  Short covering rally this morning,.....downward hooooooooo..................

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#246) On May 26, 2010 at 11:44 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

hahaha, well I was more venting than anything.  I was getting frustrated but thanks for listening and patting me on the back saying its ok.  It's what I needed.  I'm still a rookie :)  But yes, I had the conviction to stick with SDS, just no way this was going to not reverse.  If it wasn't today, it was tomorrow, and I bought when S&P was pretty high.  I didn't get the bottom ($3.44) but I got dang close :)

DOWN DOWN DOWN!

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#247) On May 26, 2010 at 11:46 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Edit - I meant the bottom was 34.44 for SDS :)

I'm up $170 on my SDS so far.

Not bad.

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#248) On May 26, 2010 at 11:50 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Up $230 now.

I'm sticking with this.

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#249) On May 26, 2010 at 11:56 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

There's a intraday head and shoulder pattern on the Dow.  Everything is still quite bearish.  I'll post an updated chart at some point.

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#250) On May 26, 2010 at 12:10 PM, Momentum22 (29.67) wrote:

My guess would be that we follow the FTSE pattern today...we are just waiting on GS to re-ignite and crossover to green. 

And Sprint is not getting "ripped apart" man...have you been following it for the past 3 months? Sprint is doing the ripping baby!!

: )

Good luck... 

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#251) On May 26, 2010 at 12:21 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Yeah I got in Sprint back during that mini Feb dip for a gap fill back in Nov.  Sprint in general has been relatively strong to the market.  I sold it at $5 with that Goldman Sachs upgrade.  Not sure what happens from at this point, but it was a good trade to hold for the past few months.

 

Today is pretty volatile again.  I tried a short off the open which I got stopped out of and there is a huge spike I just saw right now.  Tricky market to trade. 

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#252) On May 26, 2010 at 2:36 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I've been up all day with my short, stuck with it and now everything is reversing, finally!

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#253) On May 26, 2010 at 2:39 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

today has been pretty wild, but you had a good analysis and it worked very well.  I was already up from Apple and Sandisk so I didn't want to compromise and just let myself get stopped out,.....haha.

Anyways, good trade.  Likewise, I also anticipated weakness in the market due to the Euro so I sold off Apple.

I think Apple will get to $230-$235 at some point for a re-buy later on.

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#254) On May 26, 2010 at 2:42 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

VMW went nuts today, did you see that?  That's crazy!

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#255) On May 26, 2010 at 2:57 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Sold SDS for a gain of about $310

Not bad day, not a bad day at all.

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#256) On May 26, 2010 at 3:01 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Why is MSFT getting its a$$ handed to it in the past few weeks?  Is there something I'm missing?

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#257) On May 26, 2010 at 3:06 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Nice.  Good trade overall.  VMW Apple and SNDK were all pretty stong.  Apple had a weird candle put in where it went extremely low temporarly.  VMW has been ripping.  I sold SNDK this morning, it ripped to the upside as well.

 

If the S&P-500 closes above 1,090 there might be a mini rally to put in the right shoulder.  Looks like a bear flag is forming though.  The index looks like it is going to close on the lows of the day.

 

I have to go out of town traveling and visit some companies so I'll be out and not trading for the rest of the week.  I also will take next Tues for vacation so I'm gonna be done for the time being trading.  I'll watch the action, but I'd rather not be in anything while on the road and away from a computer.

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#258) On May 26, 2010 at 3:10 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

totally understand, have a good weekend and say a prayer for all our troops.  I have a friend being deployed in July, another already there, and one that just came home.

 

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#259) On May 26, 2010 at 3:15 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Definitely will do.  Likewise, I had a friend come back last year.  Volume may dry up into the weekend as a lot of ppl will take off for the holiday.  Same thing happens.  From Thanksgiving-New Year is usually not a great trading time or just around holidays as well.

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#260) On May 26, 2010 at 3:32 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

Post #230.

 

Epic rug pull.

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#261) On May 26, 2010 at 3:36 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

haha, wow these blackboxes are smelling blood.  As I was saying earlier.  Technically all the charts are broken.

SDS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#262) On May 26, 2010 at 3:40 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Figures, oh well. I made my money :)

 

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#263) On May 26, 2010 at 3:55 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

investing is dead.  +143 to down -54 or so in the Dow in 10 minutes.

The investors/buy-and-hold investors left the market permanently after 2008.  Traders and blackboxes rose from the ashes after that.

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#264) On May 26, 2010 at 4:17 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I bought into SDS again @ 35.69

I'm going to let this one ride through...I think we are in for some turbulent waters ahead, and its going to be good for SDS :)   Already up around $100 more.

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#265) On May 26, 2010 at 4:58 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

sold SDS at $36.44 in extended trading

decided not to let that ride over night.

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#266) On May 26, 2010 at 5:01 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

That's probably a good idea.  Long or short, even though the trend is lower, always go with good set ups.  Don't get too sloppy trading.  That's when things go down hill.

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#267) On May 26, 2010 at 5:09 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

futures getting crushed after hours.  China is considering getting rid of PIIGS euro bonds.

 

I hope no one is thinking this 'dip' is worth an investment grade buy.  This market is still heading lower.

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#268) On May 26, 2010 at 6:02 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

i agree..."investing" in the stock market does not exist anymore.

It's riding waves, shorting, and basically going with the moods of the time.

Right now, its sell, and nothing but sell.  This market is tanking something awful.

 

 

 

 

 

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#269) On May 26, 2010 at 7:24 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Bought Gold after hours.

ABX at $41.84

I think gold is going to continue higher with the euro weakness, I'll sell into the strength it gains.

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#270) On May 26, 2010 at 7:35 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

I don't really trade the gold miners, is American Barrick considered the 'leader' in gold miners ?

 

I thought ABX and NEM were considered the top dogs in gold mining.  I've traded the GLD, but not the miners b/c I'm not familar with them. 

 

 

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#271) On May 27, 2010 at 9:36 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I know where ABX sits comfortably, as well as NEM.

 

if you can get ABX around $40-$42 its a safe bet.

NEM is a bit higher.  ABX is more volatile so on an up day or an up gold day, it'll react more.  On a down day, it'll react more.

I got out with a $100 gain.

good week for me so far :)

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#272) On May 27, 2010 at 9:58 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

wow crazy day, i just saw how up we were...wtf happened?

This market makes no sense i swear haha

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#273) On May 27, 2010 at 6:34 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

 

enlarge

 

Today was most likely a short covering rally with anemic volume.  I hope tommorow gaps up and is another green day.  I put in with my lame photoshopping skills what I expect to transpire in the next few days.  Hopefully 2 more green days, with the second green day having a long candlewick, then 2 more red days to follow the down trend line.  If tommorow is strong again I am going to establish a macro short position and add to it up till 1,130.

If 1,130 is a close above then I'll take my losses and move on, but in our joint macro account, I was largely not short the first move down and ended up having to scalp micro long positions instead.

I am outright shorting the IVV (iShares Barclays S&P-500 index).  There are other ways to do it or use other ETFs or whatever, but I am actually going to borrow and sell the shares.

10% in the first loop, 20% in the second.  If it tags then keeps going lower, I'll add in the last 20% for a total of 50% of a normal position.  Not going overweight or anything.  Keeping my position size small due to trying to anticipate.  I won't add until it keels over or if I get stopped out. 

This is not for my active personal account.  This is a joint account being managed and more of a hedge vs. a unidirectional bet.  I'll probably have to have someone key in the order since I'll be out. 

 

Unfortunately I set the account about 10% short, 90% long before all this mess occured.  This will bring it to 20% short 80% long.

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#274) On May 28, 2010 at 9:56 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Shorted the DOW using DXD, made about 1%...quickly got out when DOW was down 64pts.  Going to be a uneventful day, so I'll take my small gain and watch on the side lines.

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#275) On May 30, 2010 at 12:09 AM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

BP did not stop the oil leak yet.  Someone here on Fool.com pointed out that BP pays a higher than average dividend yield (which they do).  Also BP's dividend payout is higher than the free cash flow they typically generate on a yearly basis.  I went back to check and sure enough they could only support their dividend payments via free cash flow 5 out of 10 years, so only half.

 

Combined with the potential to lose Government contracts, I in all honestly would not be surprised to see BP slash their dividend in half and trade down to the mid/low 30s before bottoming out.

 

This is why I never average down and take losses quickly.  I know a few people who have been playing that game with BP and it is scary to be honest.

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#276) On June 01, 2010 at 9:23 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

market going to take a dive today.  I'm glad I'm not in it.

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#277) On June 01, 2010 at 1:26 PM, Superdrol (97.33) wrote:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewBlog.aspx?t=01001545002054304245

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