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Varchild2008 (84.50)

More Good News for Portable Gaming Systems

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November 13, 2011 – Comments (18) | RELATED TICKERS: GME

For those that look at Flurry and see that

SAMSUNG + HTC + MOTOROLA + LG + KYOCERA + SONY ERICCSON + GARMIN ASUS + ACER
+ HUAWEI + DELL + LENOVO + INBRICS + T-MOBILE + GEEKSPHONE + ARCHOS

+ APPLE iOS


VS:               SONY PSP + NINTENDO DS(family) + NINTENDO 3DS

means Portable Gaming devices are dying...

http://www.andro-phones.com/all-android-phones.php

I see that this as a silly comparison!

if it takes Dozens upon Dozens upon Dozens of Smartphones just to equal or surpass protable gaming system video game sales, then the future for portable gaming systems is quite strong.

And in case you think that GOOGLE ANDROID + APPLE IOS  means portable gaming systems no longer have any sales growth?

I mean haven't we read constant drum beat after drum beat of how the NINTENDO 3DS is a failed gaming system?

Now we see from this article that that is absolutely not true at all mainly because of the price cut and the upcoming Holiday Months:

http://news.yahoo.com/nintendo-3ds-course-beat-first-ds-sales-135012733.html

Nintendo has sold 1.65 million Nintendo 3DS devices.

Last I checked here's the sales figure for SONY ERICCSON's smartphone Xperia from 20 January 2011:

http://www.androidpolice.com/2011/01/20/sony-ericsson-has-sold-over-9-million-android-phones-despite-fewer-sales-overall/

So out of a total of 4 devices, Sony has sold 9 million.

Divide 9 million into 4 and you get:  2.25 million per device since launch (at least 1 year of sales).

Nintendo 3DS has so far sold 1.65 million and is set to surprass Nintendo DS's total sales
of 2.37 million.

How?

About HALF of all sales for the Nintendo DS occured during the Holidays.  The Nintendo 3DS just needs to sell 180,000 devices per month over the next 4 months.

In October, the Nintendo 3DS sold 250,000 devices...already surpassing the pace needed to tie the Nintendo DS and essentially sell more devices than SONY ERICCSON smartphones.

That is when you actually do a DEVICE vs. DEVICE comparison.

I think that is impressive when you consider that you can not CALL anyone with your 3DS.

NOW HOW MANY 3DS devices will be sold?

If the Nintendo 3DS matches the Nintendo DS Holiday Sales....which were 50 percent of its 2.37 million total,

Then the Nintendo 3DS is set to sell 1.185  million 3DS devices.
Add that figure to the current 1.65 million and you get a total of 2.835 million in sales over 12 months.


As for Smartphones?    *OUCH*    *OOF!*

Of course the other side of the story is that you can point out sales of the APPLE iPhone or the
Samsung Galaxy SII and come up with devices sell far more units than Nintendo's 3DS.

But, like I said before and will continue to say...  How many APPLE iPHONEs would be sold if you could not TEXT or CALL or E-MAIL anyone with them?

Correct me if I am wrong but I do not believe you can CALL or TEXT or E-MAIL anyone with your Nintendo 3DS.

So, maybe future portable gaming systems will add some of these missing features?

The SONY Portable VITA will have AT&T service tied to the gaming machine:

http://technology.xin.msn.com/gaming/photos.aspx?cp-documentid=5502046&page=7

VOICE and TEXT Chat are features of the upcoming SONY VITA.

It appears that while Motley Fool Authors are busy banging out negativity against the Portable Gaming Systems 3DS and VITA,  Sony is busy banging out reasons to stop paying $80+ a month to AT&T for a Smartphone that is only capable of providing FRUIT NINJA type games.

With VOICE and TEXT chat....which can be accomplished in-game or simply while browsing the internet, there will be less and less reasons to justify spending $300+ on some of the more expensive Smartphones like the APPLE iPHONE and SAMSUNG Galaxy SII.


18 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 13, 2011 at 11:34 AM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

Just for further comparison:

SAMSUNG GALAXY SII has a $650 retail price.

Somehow we are to *cringe* at Sony Vita's $300 price point with UMD (which is its proprietary memory).

That is more than 1/2 the cost of a Samsung Galaxy SII
and about 1/2 the cost of the APPLE iPHONE 4S.

The only thing is that service providers like AT&T are willing to heavily discount the price of these phones when you agree to a 2 year contract of service with them.

If portable gaming systems start to eat into Smartphone Markets by offering the ability to communicate, then how long will it be before service providers no longer capable of providing heavy discounts to Smartphone prices?

How long before Smartphones price themselves out of the marketplace by trying to compete with Gaming Systems like the SONY VITA?

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#2) On November 13, 2011 at 11:58 AM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

I just love how the Nintnedo 3DS won't just be selling more units by over half a million versus XPERIA phones,

But you can do comparisons against all sorts of smartphones and come out with 3DS as the clear winner.

That's pretty good when a quote/unquote "Failed Portable Gaming System" is surpassing many Android Smartphones in sales...

I wouldn't be surprised to see within 5 years various APP STORES being added to portable gaming systems allowing retailers like GAMESTOP or AMAZON to sell smaller, indie games to potable gaming systems.

Kongregate Arcade could (theoretically) become either a Flash or HTML 5 based gaming site available on these devices as they are already available on Smartphones.

We live in a "We can Do it TOO" universe.

With many analysts starting to see weakness in APPLE's growth of sales for their devices due to the gigantic amount of competition coming from other competitor products...

The reality is momentum can shift on a dime when any manufacturer is able to put out a Pure Gaming Device far more engage and far more powerful than Smartphones and have the same or similar capabilities of smartphones.

There may be a future where Smartphones go away and Portable Gaming Devices essentially take over.

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#3) On November 13, 2011 at 12:11 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

Also,

There aren't many indie developers out there making games for these portable gaming devices because it is far more difficult, time consuming, and expensive to do so.

Putting out a portable FINAL FANTASY game can take a real long time while FRUIT NINJA can be developed within days.

So we have thousands upon thousands of games already available for Smartphones because anyone TOM, DICK, and HARRY can string one together and put it up for sale.

at least with Portable Gaming Devices with far more involving, far more technologically superior, games with far more playing value than 5 minutes while waiting for your Subway to arrive...

The reality is if you consider QUANTITY into the Sales Figures of the Smartphone Gaming against the QUANTITY of available games for SONY + NINTENDO gaming devices, there is no comparison.

Smartphones put out far more *losers* than they do *hits* on the APP store.

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#4) On November 13, 2011 at 12:47 PM, rofgile (99.41) wrote:

Hi Varchild,

 This has some truth, but I am excited to start developing android games at this point in time (as a small independent programmer).  The Tegra 2 is pretty nice GPU on the current generation of android phones, while the Tegra 3 (a four + 1 companion core GPU) will be quite neat.   With a Tegra 3, a smart phone is probably quite near the level of a nintendo 64 / gamecube or much better.  

 And, you always carry a phone with you.  With a nice smartphone, I don't need to carry a nintendo DS to have some fun entertainment.  And my nintendo DS can't make phone calls.

 I would bet on NVDA at this point. 

 -Rof 

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#5) On November 13, 2011 at 12:57 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

CLARIFICATION:

The Voice and Text feature of the VITA isn't the samething
as the SMARTPHONE in that it works only if you are communicating with another user of the VITA.

As far as I understand you can not send TEXTs to someone with an iPHONE.

In the future who knows....TEXT and VOICE communications may be expanded in future versions of the VITA.

Remember, the PSP device has several versions of itself so assuredly SONY may make different versions of the VITA.

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#6) On November 13, 2011 at 1:03 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

I understand what makes Android and Iphone IOS appealing to game small indie game developers.

You can make these kinds of games with a much smaller team of developers and artists and with spending much less money and time to create the games.

But, when TEGRA 3 comes out with Nintendo 64 / Gamecube type graphical capabilities...

Whose to say that Indie developers would develop games for the smartphones instead of portable gaming devices?

It will assuredly cost you more time and money putting together a NINTENDO 64 / GAMECUBE game than the current spate of games you are currently developing making the GAP between developing a Smartphone Game versus a Portable Gaming Device Game much smaller in cost and time spent.

You have to consider that you are basically saying that improved graphics will have no impact on your development cost structure.

it will...

Ask any game publisher about how long it takes to make a modern video game today versus 5 to 10 years ago.

As game development gets more complicated on the Smartphones, and as Portable Gaming Devices keep gaining Smartphone capabilities, there will be less and less reason for you to continue to ignore portable gaming devices.

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#7) On November 13, 2011 at 1:12 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

Plus, as I mentioned in an earlier blog post, OBSIDIAN is a major publisher of games that has no plans to making games for Smartphones.

If you have to start hiring 3D modelers and purchase 3DS max or other 3D modeling software just to develop a Smartphone Game,

you may see how you are better off publishing that game for Portable Gaming Devices.

For that matter.... How long will it be once you have to make all these new Hires and learn 64 bit graphics development and whatever else TEGRA 3 provides that would still be satisfied igonoring Portable Gaming Machines?

You could always port your advanced Smartphone title to
a Portable Gaming Machine,  vice perhaps having little to no success trying to sell  ANGRY BIRDS for the Nintendo 3DS.

Advanced Smartphone Games may soon become PORTED
to Portable Gaming Machines.

When these PORTS start to occur that will eliminate reasons for gaming on a Smartphone.

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#8) On November 13, 2011 at 1:27 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

"When these PORTS start to occur that will eliminate reasons for gaming on a Smartphone."

By that I actually meant that the profit margins of selling a Portable Gaming Device game may soon become much more appealing
than the profit margins of selling a game on a Smartphone for 99 cents.

Absolutely it will.  It is unit of sale.

Are you going to develop a super advanced title for the smartphone and sell it for 99 cents???

Or just make the same game for a Portable Gaming Device and sell it to Retailers for $30 or more?

The only solution with TEGRA 3 is that Smartphone Game Developers that wish to take full advantage of TEGRA 3 capabilities, hiring new programmers and 3D modelers and animators and so on....

You are going to quickly boost the Sale Price of your Smartphone Game to a level more equal with what you would sell it for on a Portable Gaming Machine.

That will make consumers see little to no advantage buying Smartphone Games...

That will level the playing field with Portable Gaming Devices except the PGDs will come with far more advanced gaming specific capabilities....

Such as improved Motion Sensoring....

I mean the PSP Vita improves upon the 3DS's  3D capability by allowing you to *pinch* the 3D image to do stuff with it.

Unless you envision still putting out simple 2D games despite
the fact that TEGRA 3 is now available, I see the future for
Smartphone Gaming falling off a cliff.

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#9) On November 13, 2011 at 1:35 PM, ikkyu2 (99.14) wrote:

This is a really interesting post with a lot of information and facts.

Varchild, have you ever thought about working on your essay writing skills?

http://lklivingston.tripod.com/essay/

This site has some of the basics.  I feel like I'm almost convinced by what you wrote, but at the end I'm not sure what you were trying to convince me of. 

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#10) On November 13, 2011 at 1:38 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

We already see Advanced Smartphone Games

Like Spectral Souls

Selling for $14.98  on the Android Marketplace.

That already is a far cry from 99 cents.
Sure, there is a DELUGE of 99 cents and free of charge games...
Most of which appear on the TOP SELLING GAMES list on the Android Marketplace and are mostly simple, 2D games.

What happens when games are TEGRA 3?
Spectral Souls is a TEGRA based game.

TEGRA 3 may double the sale prices of future smartphone games.

I mean $14.98 as pricy as that sounds to me for a Smartphone game is still quite a bit cheaper to buy than the latest
Nintendo DS or 3DS game.

But, the pricing advantage is going to shrink the more indie developers decide to produce more advanced titles.

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#11) On November 13, 2011 at 1:43 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

"This site has some of the basics. I feel like I'm almost convinced by what you wrote, but at the end I'm not sure what you were trying to convince me of."

And I couldn't care less what you think.
And no... I am not going to change my writing style to please anyone.

My style is my own...and I prefer to be as loose as possible with my writing since

A)  I am not getting paid any $$$ to write here.

and

B)  I am not by any means a professional stock analyst, or author, or etc.

There is a reason Motley Fool calls these things "BLOGS."

They are not meant to be professional and so therefore I see no need to make it so.

Besides, professional style of writing is so....drab in my opinion.

I pretty much do not comprehend anything coming out of the professional writers...the Motley Fool Authors...

I see hardly anything of value....none....zero....zip...with the professional  "You have to do it this way" style of writing.

You have your own Academic Mindset that can't comprehend this style..

And I have my own free spirited mindset that can't stand Academic Writing.

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#12) On November 13, 2011 at 1:47 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

No offense but criticizing spelling, grammar, writing style....

That has no place in the Blogosphere in my opinion.

Which is why I couldn't care less about anyone that voices an opinion on well my Grammar is or spelling or writing style.

WASTE OF TIME!!!!

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#13) On November 13, 2011 at 1:59 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

Another thing.

Since when is it that I am even writing Essays???

Last I checked I am writing BLOG POSTS!

Not Professional Essays.

If I wish to ever write an Essay then fine...It will be the most amazing academic Essay ever written, typographical error and grammar error and spelling error free....

Until then....*yawn* at anyone pointing out TYPOS and flashing Essay Writing hyperlinks.

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#14) On November 13, 2011 at 2:10 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

P.S.  In order to be as thorough as possible bring up all of the facts that the Motley Fool Authors constantly ignore...fail to bring up...dodge.....white wash....or misunderstand/distort....

In order to do all of that....

Grammar.....Spelling.....Typos.....and over all essay writing style goes down the drain.

I don't have a 2nd set of eyes going through doing a Formatting/Editing job.

Nor do I have the capabilities of a Publishing Software Program to format the work the best way possible and to re-arrange the work so that 2-like minded points are together instead of separated....

And so on and so on....  The list goes on...

I find it next to a wasted effort trying to be professional with what little resources we have.

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#15) On November 13, 2011 at 2:20 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

"This site has some of the basics. I feel like I'm almost convinced by what you wrote, but at the end I'm not sure what you were trying to convince me of. "

Considering that you were "almost convinced" by my writing speaks volumes of not the quality of my writing but the quality of writing from Motley Fool Authors.

That I a mere "peasant" can almost convince an All Star to my opinion instead of the opinions of Motley Fool Authors speaks volumes to me.

Says more about them that it does me when they are supposed to have that 2nd set of eyes along with a basic Template so that the writing is as concise, and similar in style, and so forth to
each other.

I mean they have the resources to put together professional pieces of writing work.  I don't give a crap at all about being professional and yet almost convince you to change your mind?

I consider that to be a compliment the more I think about it.

Thank you!

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#16) On November 13, 2011 at 3:47 PM, rofgile (99.41) wrote:

Quote: 

 We already see Advanced Smartphone Games

Like Spectral Souls
Selling for $14.98  on the Android Marketplace.
That already is a far cry from 99 cents.
Sure, there is a DELUGE of 99 cents and free of charge games...
Most of which appear on the TOP SELLING GAMES list on the Android Marketplace and are mostly simple, 2D games.
What happens when games are TEGRA 3?
Spectral Souls is a TEGRA based game.
TEGRA 3 may double the sale prices of future smartphone games.

This would be a fantastic thing for the android platform. It is much harder to charge greater than $3.00 per Android app, compared with iOS apps charging upwards of $10, DS games upwards of $25, etc.  If the money people will pay for Android apps increases then you will see a boom in quality titles.  I see advanced 2D and 3D games driven by GPUs heading in this direction.  

 However, there is considerable uncertainty about the future of GPUs in phones, if there will be standards for the next generation, and what company will win the GPU war (NVidia, AMD,..?)

 Whether smartphones and handheld game systems are in a real battle - I would say yes!  Kids in their teenage years are much more excited to get a cutting edge cell phone than a dedicated game system (phones are hip and adult). Young kids (age 4-8) are growing up with iPads rather than NES systems.  There will be a different gaming world in the next five years!

 Mobile gaming phones are a disruptive technology.  Nintendo's sales for the 3DS have been a tremendous failure - and I think this is the first sign of what is to come.

---

 FWIW, I don't think ikkyu2's post was meant badly.  Writing is a fantastic thing.  In my line of business, how well people can write reflects considerably on their clarity of thought and insight.  

Thanks for the nice blog on gaming tech, as always - and I hope you keep it up.  I don't have as much time these days to spend on modern games, so I like your perspective!    

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#17) On November 13, 2011 at 4:15 PM, ikkyu2 (99.14) wrote:

Varchild, I was certainly trying to give a compliment.  You bring a lot of value when you compile facts for me and other readers.  I appreciate that.

I certainly do not view you as a peasant and I am well aware that CAPS success is just that, not the same as the real world financial success we all want to have.

Sometimes though, as in this post, it is a blizzard of facts and it is hard to know how they fit together.  For instance I looked up Flurry after you mentioned it, but I am still not sure what Flurry is - some kind of an analytic tool for the web, I don't really get it - or how it relates to what you are trying to say.

My old writing prof used to say, "Tell 'em what you're going to say, then say it, then tell 'em what you said."  That might help me get the most out of your posts.  Certainly no offense or criticism was intended.

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#18) On November 13, 2011 at 5:12 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

"Sometimes though, as in this post, it is a blizzard of facts and it is hard to know how they fit together. For instance I looked up Flurry after you mentioned it, but I am still not sure what Flurry is - some kind of an analytic tool for the web, I don't really get it - or how it relates to what you are trying to say."

Funny considering that I was not the one that even brought up
Flurry.

I only mentioned it here as this was a response article to the article posted titled, "Bad News for Portable Gaming" as seen on the Gamestop chart.  I forget who authored that.

But, I have no clue about FLURRY either so I wasn't going to say anything that was already said in that article.

I.E.  I simply took the author's word for it that FLURRY showed that Smartphone Video Game sales were set to surpass portable game device video game sales.

"My old writing prof used to say, "Tell 'em what you're going to say, then say it, then tell 'em what you said." That might help me get the most out of your posts. Certainly no offense or criticism was intended"

Yeah well I could care less about Professors or Academia.

I am vehemently opposed to listing only a certain small number of facts and then talking about that Strunk and E.B. White style.......especially when this is a BLOG!!

This is not Technical Writing 101.

This is a BLOG!!!!

The format and style of a Grocery Shopping List is diametrically opposed to everything taught in a Technical Writing Professorial class except that I guess that it is a list.

Writing in one's Diary/Journal is also something that can violate every rule in the book.... But it doesn't matter since you are speaking for your own benefit.  Not for the benefit of Professor X at X University.

Hence.... BLOG = DIARY of sorts.  Not much different.

A list of facts no matter how scatter brained the readers may see it.....is exactly how my brain functions and so works perfectly for me.

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