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djshagggyd (82.38)

More humble questions for you fools... (come laugh at and/or with me)

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March 12, 2010 – Comments (19) | RELATED TICKERS: AED , TSTRQ.PK , CONN

What were the biggest mistakes you made as a baby fool?

Soon it will be my first CAPS birthday. And as with most areas in my life, failure has become an important ingredient to my current success.

Sure it's foolish, but I've found that losing is one of the only sure-fire ways for me to learn how to win. When a person fails, one of two things will happen:

Fight or flight.

People with weak stomachs and giant egos will become so sickened and distraught over failure that they will flee. The frustration of failure will defeat them... and therefore negate any chance of future success.

But those who are humble, patient, and have a high tolerance for pain... those are the fighters. And they are the ones who will be the winners in the end.

In my first year as an investor, I would say my biggest mistake was pursuing ideas based off emotion rather than fact. I had absolutely ZERO investing knowledge or background... and I didn't know anyone who did. Yet I would get so excited about a stock idea, that I would act before putting in the proper work and research. Here is probably the funniest example:

When I was first coming up with ideas of what companies I wanted to invest in... I mostly considered companies I was familiar with. Companies I liked. One such company was Dunkin Donuts. Because donuts are awesome. "And who doesn't love D&D coffee?" I thought.

Later that night I haphazardly did some research on the internet. I found a discussion board on Yahoo which informed me AED was the D&D ticker. 5 minutes later, I sunk money into AED.

One week later, I realized that AED is actually an insurance company. And that Dunkin Donuts isn't even a publicly traded company! Man did I feel like an idiot. A complete and total idiot.

For a moment, a feeling of panic washed over me and I wondered if I was really meant to be an invester. But soon I got over myself. I laughed it off. I learned my lesson. I plodded on.

Over a year later, here I am. I've still got a lot to learn... but I'm getting much better at this.

And although I'm certain I will eventually fall off this horse again... I also know that I can get back on and keep riding with the best of 'em.

So what about you? What mistakes did you make in your first few years as an investor? What failures did you overcome?

To hear about it would certainly be of help to a fool such as I.

Thank you for reading, and have a ridiculous weekend.

~djshagggyd

19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 12, 2010 at 3:46 PM, DarkToast (96.84) wrote:

My biggest mistake in my first year was trading too much. A related failing was not being patient enough, several times I sold at small profits or losses before a big run up. A third failing was buying after a run up, and selling after a plunge.

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#2) On March 12, 2010 at 4:25 PM, catoismymotor (78.39) wrote:

DJ,

Think of the money lost in the process as tuition paid to the University of Real Life Experience. So long as you learn where your came up short you will have a better understanding about how not to repeat the error.

My biggest mistakes had to do with buying into bubbles. I bought, lost on paper, then lost for real when I cashed out. I was able to make back the loss, eventually, but not before reading books by Ben Graham and Peter Lynch and compairing my conclusions with fellow Fools.

My second mistake was trying to time the market. And lastly my third mistake was being impatient. I just had to jump on the great company I found! As soon as I made myself comfortable with using the DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) method of investing I became far better at it.

Cato

 

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#3) On March 12, 2010 at 5:57 PM, djshagggyd (82.38) wrote:

Thanks to both of you!

Darktoast-

What was your strategy to avoid those mistakes? Specifically... how did you learn when to"let a winner run"... as opposed to selling too soon at a smaller profit? I know it's not an easy question to answer... just looking for some basic ideas from you. Thanks!

Cato-

I'm glad you brought up dollar cost averaging. Over the last 6 months I've been reading a lot about it, and having been using it as a strategy for GE, ATVI, and IPHS. 

When you say "timing the market"... what do you mean by that?

Thanks again for your response!

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#4) On March 12, 2010 at 7:02 PM, arisktaker (83.48) wrote:

My biggest mistakes as young investor were putting everything into a single stock; not putting in stop losses; investing before I understood the company, industry, and market forces and being impatient. 

I am no longer a buy and hold, except for mutual funds.  I establish a sell point based on the company when I buy it.  I only change that when there is news - like a buyout.  I put in stop losses of 8% if I have a lot of exposure.  I never invest more than 5% of my net worth in anything. I always try to keep a significant reserve so I can take advantage of opprotunities. I have learned not to be a PIG and to be patient. 

TSTR is the rare exception to the stop loss rule because I knew going in the it had extreme swings.  However, I still have a stop loss in it is just a bigger number.  

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#5) On March 12, 2010 at 7:33 PM, catoismymotor (78.39) wrote:

DJ,

When you are "timing the market" you are trying to catch the market/stock when you think it is the best time to buy or sell. It is impossible to do. Anyone that tells you otherwise is trying to sell you something.  The best you can do is make an educated guess. Using DCA for the buying has saved me countless headaches. 

Cato 

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#6) On March 12, 2010 at 7:40 PM, catoismymotor (78.39) wrote:

And congratulations on your upcoming anniversary!

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#7) On March 12, 2010 at 10:28 PM, ChrisGraley (99.66) wrote:

Probably my biggest mistake was being a young kid and being unable to talk my dad in to investing in a little known company called Microsoft. They had this product called "DOS" that I thought was really cool and would revolutionize the world.

Of course at the time dad didn't invest in anything, so it was a hard sell.

Personally though, I think my biggest mistakes were market timing and jumping into an investment strategy right after I read a book about it. I usually didn't have a good enough grasp of the concepts and I usually failed because I thought I knew more than I did.

I agree with cato, in that I consider it tuition. If I didn't learn from my mistakes,  I wouldn't be as far along now.

 

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#8) On March 13, 2010 at 2:25 PM, djshagggyd (82.38) wrote:

Risk Taker-

I like your strategy. Thanks for sharing your knowledge. 8% seems like a good threshold for a "stop-loss". I've been setting mine at around 15%, which might be a little too high.

I've been hearing a lot of different strategies as far as diversifying my portfolio. I may post a blog about it soon in order to help gather more information. I like your idea of not having more than 5% in any one company... but I currently don't have enough money to keep my personal percentage that low.

With what I am working with, 13% seems more realistic. Even though it's significantly more risky (and maybe ill advised?), it seems logical to me because otherwise the percentage of my overall investment dedicated to commission fees would be very high.

 

Chris-

Wow! That is a great (although somewhat tragic) story about Microsoft. I hope the "I told you so" moment was at least somewhat satisfying... haha. 

Thanks for your thoughts on pitfalls to avoid. Getting too excited about a book or "new strategy" is definitely something I have been guilty of in the past. But I hadn't really thought about it too much till you mentioned it. So thanks!

 

Cato-

Thanks for your explanation on "timing the market". It's much appreciated! I also really liked your "U of Real Life" metaphor. It's a great way to think about things. Thanks again Cato!

 

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#9) On March 15, 2010 at 12:17 PM, arisktaker (83.48) wrote:

Stockbox looks like an ad.

I put a negative value in recommendations made by people with a rating of <20 as a lot of them are Pump & Dump - ie they bought the stock really cheap and then pump it up by fax, email & recommendation to things like CAPS so they can sell it at a high price.

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#10) On March 15, 2010 at 12:39 PM, lemoneater (84.32) wrote:

djshagggyd, I agree with you. I would like to buy Dunkin Donut also if it were possible. The same goes for IKEA!

My earliest mistake was not knowing what P/E stood for and being thrilled with high P/E numbers. High scores are good, right? At least ISRG was a happy accident, but SWC didn't do so well until recently when investors had a renewed interest in platinum.

I've decided to pick you as a favorite for sheer friendliness and for not taking yourself too seriously as you learn from your mistakes like the rest of us (hopefully, do).

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#11) On March 15, 2010 at 5:41 PM, djshagggyd (82.38) wrote:

Risk Taker-

Thanks for the heads up! They must have removed the comment already because I didn't even see it. But I'd never heard of "pump and dump" before, so I'm glad you mentioned it. Can the market really be affected by spammers? If so, that's pretty interesting.

Lemoneater-

Thanks for reading and for offering your thoughts. And thanks for adding me as a favorite! You're the first, and will probably be my one and only... haha.

Good luck with your picks!

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#12) On March 15, 2010 at 6:29 PM, DDHv (< 20) wrote:

My mistakes were made before finding FOOL.COM. The biggest was not doing enough study before jumping in. The second biggest was in choosing based on the technology, rather than the company quality. Doing OK now - 18%/year ahead of the SPY index. Largely because of big margins of safety!

 BTW, in setting loss safety stops, the following seem to be useful:

 

Historical Period Likely change HPC = (Hi - Lo)/(Hi + Lo)

Expected change this week EPC = (Weekend price * HPC * SQRT (trading days this week/trading days in historical period)

Stop loss = Week's low - EPC

 

This gives a figure low enough not to be easily triggered by the usual volatility, but close enough to trigger with an unsual change. The figure is adjusted each weekend. Change to an equivalent trailing stop and tighten when planning to sell for sure.

Not my idea - saw it on the net.

 

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#13) On March 16, 2010 at 12:56 PM, arisktaker (83.48) wrote:

You actually believe that stocks are fairly traded?

I hate to burst your bubble but you better be careful.  I believe that there are just enough traded fairly to provide confidence to the public.

Stocks that are thinly traded (less than maybe 100 million shares available for trade) and/or are very low cost (penny stocks) are very prone to being manipulated by generally small time scammers.   For one of the more outlandish look at the CAPS comments on PXCE.DL.

The big time scammers manipulate everything else.  Before the SEC put a stop to it last year these scammers (big brokerages; hedge funds, etc.) were ganging up on specific financial institutions and selling "naked" short (naked as in they didn't own the stock they were selling short).  They drove several good one out of business, Wachovia was one of the last.  When Wachovia’s price was drive down it couldn’t borrow money to lend and then had to merger with Well Fargo.  It’s an interesting story to read about.

This is one of the reason for Stops, Limit Orders, setting your profit points, etc. so you don’t get caught is some gigantic maneuvering of the markets.   These people don’t play fair – I think fairness in the markets is only an illusion.  That doesn’t mean you can make money, you just have to understand the rules of the game.  Right now I would suggest your investment game is like house league soccer compared to the actual game being played – NFL football.   Different rules, different field, different ball and a way different scoring system.   However, they are both called football.

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#14) On March 16, 2010 at 1:11 PM, truthisntstupid (83.48) wrote:

arisktaker

Sounds like a real good argument for avoiding very small, thinly traded, speculative stocks. 

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#15) On March 16, 2010 at 1:36 PM, arisktaker (83.48) wrote:

ttruthisntstupid

At least to be extremely careful.   Microsoft and Walmart were once small, thinly traded, and considered speculative stocks.

However I have actually lost a lot more money in "safe" large cap stocks.  My very first investment, over 30 years ago was in Rolls Royce - it went bankrupt and I rode it all the way down.

I would suggest that you really need to be careful in any investment.  Nothing is really safe so be watchful and put your limit orders in when you buy.  

On an aside, you can buy systems that will show you a lot more about the market than you think may exist.  Serious Day Traders have them and they show you all standing orders (Stops, etc.) including price, for each stock.  I have seen points where it looks like a trader has drive down a stock's price to pickup a stop loss and then the price immediately rebound to where it was - nice profit for the trader - not so good for the average Joe.

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#16) On March 16, 2010 at 5:11 PM, djshagggyd (82.38) wrote:

Wow... great comments!

I feel like my brain is swollen. I think my next investment needs to be a new Cubs cap to accommodate my ballooning head. Not that I'm getting a "big head". It's more like a "fat head" due to exponential brain growth. Ha.

Anyway, really great stuff from all of you. Thanks! I've got some new questions/comments that I'll post throughout the day... so check back if you get bored.

DDHv-

Those stop-loss formulas are really cool. I'm definitely going to look into them more and see how I might be able to apply and/or adjust them to work for me. Thanks for passing that along... much appreciated.

If anybody else has thoughts on the DDHv's stop-loss formulas, I'd be curious to know...

(to find them, scroll-up)

Back for more after band practice...

~djshagggyd

 

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#17) On March 17, 2010 at 2:28 AM, djshagggyd (82.38) wrote:

Risk Taker-

Don't get me wrong... I know the market is a shady place. I guess I just didn't realize it could be manipulated so easily by the average "spammer". But I  shouldn't be surprised. There are probably a lot of dummies out there who actually do buy stocks based off faxes, emails, etc.

So based off what you said, I guess that gives the highly ranked Caps players some real-life power. If someone from the top 10 starts pitching and blogging about a stock... do you think they have the power to make it go up and down in value?

I really like your metaphor about house league soccer vs NFL football. I'd say it's a pretty accurate assessment of where I'm at. A few months ago I saw a story on Colbert about day traders who use massive computers to trade at high volume and manipulate the market. It was at that point I realized that if I am going to be good at investing, I'm going to need a serious plan.

Thanks for being so forthcoming with your thoughts and advice... it's been really helpful!

~djshagggyd 

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#18) On March 23, 2010 at 10:09 AM, arisktaker (83.48) wrote:

I was watching the market open and just thought of a piece of information that might be of help. 

I read that the majority of stocks will have at least a 25% price swing within any given year.  In my experience I would say if you are investing in stocks that are active and not fortune 500 companies or normally stable investments (REITS, insurance companies, utilities, etc.) it is closer to 50%.  

I read this a long time ago and it has made me much less likely to "pull the trigger" unless something changes fundamentally. Don't get me wrong, I still put the "stops" in I just don't panic when I see major swings.

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#19) On March 23, 2010 at 4:46 PM, djshagggyd (82.38) wrote:

Thanks a lot Risk Taker, that's definitely good to know!

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