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Varchild2008 (84.31)

More Share Price whining at ADSI conference call *sigh*



May 16, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: FLIR

Couple interesting things in the Conference Call that I listenend to just now (I was on vacation so I missed it on May 13th).

I have just 2 things to mention concerning the conference call.

1)  The Share Price probably trades sideways to a slow up trend  (as it has been doing since it bottomed out at 37 cents) for quite awhile....maybe the entire year this year.   How's this a bad thing?

Look.. The Share Price whining does need to stop cause it's not fun listening to it and it completely ignores the fundamentals...  People are too fixated over looking at a quick buck.

I invested in DPS (Dr. Pepper Snapple)  at $25.  Sure.. I did dump the stock for an extremely short period of time based on almost deciding to buy a house.  After I quickly realized my mistake I bought back into DPS.

But... I saw the Share price.. Drop from $26.50  all the way to $11.83  over the course of an entire year.  I saw NO BENEFIT out of DPS... for an entire year..  Yet I stuck with DPS because of the Fundamentals.  

Fundamentals... Fundamentals...  They are more important that staring at the Share Price every single day hoping to make some kinda quick buck.

I don't invest that way... I'm long stocks like ADSI  (EAG).  I long that stock all the way to my retirement and I am 28 years my retirement aint happening any time soon.

Just for clarity... I have accumulated additional shares shortly after the 2008 Q4 earnings call and I probably will accumulate more shares before the end of Q2 2009.  I carry to date 5240 shares.
Which basically means a value of $3,350  give or take. 

I am not really concerned about the share price right now because ADSI has a "West Coast Partners" issue.  They have a Security A series stock problem.   Debt convenants getting tripped.
Once they settle this issue (which I do not believe will happen overnight like the C.E.O. made it seem.. This issue based on reading their Investor Report looks tricky to me).

But whatever....  ADSI is a

And if you want to know why you should set aside Share Price concerns and focus on the light at the end of the tunnel.... look at FLIR Systems.   Their share price was as low as 73 cents!  It took them quite awhile to climb out of Penny Stock Status.

You think ACTIVISION's  C.E.O.  Got the company out penny stock status overnight? ? ?

Share Price concerns SHOULD BE  secondary or thirdary to simply running the business of your company and improving on your company's market share, fundamentals, product lineup, and diversification of customer base.    That's what I jump for joy over listening to these conference calls...  That's where the money is.. It's with knowing that you are holding onto a Stock that represents a Growing, Prospering, and Exciting Company.

The Share Price action will happen... But give it a rest.  *sheesh*

2)  The second thing to mention was that I am probably getting READ by mentioning ADSI (EAG) on my blog here..given the C.E.O's blog comment.  But, really?   I'm just a regular, insignificant, individual share holder just looking to go LONG about 10 stocks in his portfolio in which 1 happens to be ADSI.  So, to treat me with any significance cause I BLOG about ADSI is rather silly..

But anyhow...If I get read... then this gets read.... and really.. the "Loan Covenant"  Security A Series... West Coast Partners..... They are the real problems that eventually have to be resolved.

The Share Price goes Sideways while we wait for the reasons investors choose not to buy into EAG disappear.  West Coast Partners... Debt Covenants... Those are obstacles to share price action. 

Another obstacle is simply that the company wasn't running Cash Positive in 2008.  They are running cash positive in 2009... But in my 1 year of experience in the market.... Investors do not care about Cash Positive Companys until they have had 1 full year under the belt with Cash Positive status...  And even then....Share Prices can still be in Penny Stock Status.

I mean... I can find tons of companys running Cash Positive with little debt to asset ratios and yet they are still muddled in penny stock status.  1 such stock is in my portfolio and is (SWTX).

Do I pull my hair out and whine about Share Prices to the C.E.O. of SWTX?   No!!!

Why??   Cause I know why SWTX  is in penny stock mode.  It is the fundamental problems with the Automotive Sector.  Until the global economy improves and Southwall Technologies starts benefiting from an improved and growing Automotive Sector... (rather than one in a complete Mess),  it serves no purpose to whine about share prices.

There.. I said about enough on the subject.  In the end.... I look forward to 2010 or 2011 being the years where we really get to see EAG's stock take off.  2009 will be tricky going forward for awhile.

My highest BUY-IN price on the stock is 84 cents a share.  The stock is at 64 cents a share.
If it weren't for upcoming Bills to Pay... and other issues... I would be throwing money hand over fist into EAG.  The Share price is indeed oversold...undervalued.... under-noticed....  And as long as that's the case... I'm a buyer and long term holder of the stock.

That's the reality... Instead of worrying about the share price.... The focus is to be GLAD.. SUPER HAPPY... That you can get shares of EAG for as low as you can.  You should be counting your blessings here.... Come on.  This is paradise to see the share price below a Buck... like FLIR SYSTEMS used to be.

Disclosure:  I have 95 shares of FLIR.

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 16, 2009 at 8:06 PM, Varchild2008 (84.31) wrote:

Just 1 more thing to repeat....

EAG is an UP TRENDING STOCK........    Where are the complaints coming from when we have a stock that is nearly a 2 Bagger off the bottom???

37 cents to 64 cents means the company is doing great things.....  Save the complaints for when the company starts doing poorly and the share price goes from 64 cents to 37 cents.. not the other way around.

I can easily see the share price busting through the $1.00 barrier in Q1 2010... MAYBE.... Q4 2009.  All it takes is a slow..ever so slow...progression up.

SCOTTRADE  says this about EAG:

"Moving Average Price Compare

EAG is trading above its 13 day moving average.  This is considered to be the sign of a bullish trend.  There is added weight to this indication because the moving average is rising and suggests that there has been buying interest in this stock."

After reading that and also seeing the bullish RSI above 50%....currently at 54% for the stock.. among other great technicals....

Why the whining????  2 conferences calls in a row since I got into the stock in February of this year.

ADSI simply has to continue to do well to continue to increase the number of unique investors...that have positions in this stock... to eventually build up enough volume to push the stock higher... Right now.. we are seeing a Bullish  UP TREND not just in Share price... but also Volume.

MAY 14th:  174,500  share volume        HIGHER THAN
Apri   2nd:   172,400 share volume.

Don't sit there and think an increase of 2,100 is insignificant.
It's not.  I have over $3,000 riding on this stock and I was not doing any buying on May 14th.  So that's increased volume with VARCHILD not in the pool of buyers cause he was out on Vacation in Las Vegas that day.

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#2) On May 16, 2009 at 8:48 PM, Varchild2008 (84.31) wrote:

Bah.. 1 more thing I forgot to say and I am done on this subject.

I am thinking that as an alternative in terms of the share price...

Secondary Offering???   Sure... it is dillutive to shareholders but look at a company like (F) Ford.  They introduced 300 million more shares at $4.75 a share and what happens?

Hedge Funds /  Mutual Funds /  Fund Managers step in and buy up those shares at that price....  The Common Stock drops 17 % or so to close to $4.75.... And then? Like a miracle?? The Share Price pops back up by closing bell FRIDAY to $5.49 with a 2 cent increase in the after hours market.

FORD is yet another company whose share price pops up after the introduction of 300 million more shares in a secondary offering.

I am thus IN FAVOR of ADSI introducing more shares at around 50 cents a share in a secondary offering.  It could help.  But, ultimately, we won't know what the BOARD comes up with for awhile.  I am sure they will consider the "Secondary Offering" concept along with many others....Secondary Offerings are a great way for a company to get rid of its Debt Covenants as well.

You have something that can kill 2 birds with 1 stone in a Secondary offering approach.  So.. if I am getting read as 1 of a number of blogs the CEO reads or is aware of....uhm.. cool consider this a suggestion:-)

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