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Varchild2008 (85.49)

Motley Fool All Star in 3 easy steps. . .

Recs

3

May 16, 2008 – Comments (7)

Step 1:  Close out your bad underperforms
Step 2:  Close out your bad outperforms.
Step 3:  Keep the rest of your stock picks that are doing well.

Congratulations!   You don't have a single clue about what a "Stock Market" even is but you'll get talked about by other all stars who think you are amazingly smart at picking stocks.

For those who blog about not getting their accuracy rating above 50%, What are you waiting for, an invitation? 

Since Motley Fool website doesn't lock people's stock picks to the length of time they select (3 weeks, 3 months, 2-4 years, 5+ years), virtually anyone can be an All Star with a ridiculously high accuracy rating.

How in the heck do you suppose I got to be an All Star in spite of being a complete Investing NEWB?   What? Watching Jim Cramer?????  gaffaw!

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 17, 2008 at 12:58 AM, Tastylunch (29.33) wrote:

ummm actually that seems to be the reverse of what most allstars do...

Most allstars I follow close out good underperforms when they are +5 or better (harvesting)and then reload where appropriate...

They only close good outperforms when whatever goal they for it is met. 

as for the bad ones they usually let them run. 

 Look at TMFEldrehad he is something like -1000 on DRY. The good players like him let their losers run until they lose all hope that they'll get their points back...

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#2) On May 17, 2008 at 1:15 AM, MakeItSeven (31.98) wrote:

They only close good outperforms when whatever goal they for it is met.

Regardless whether it is met in 5 years or 5 weeks. 

In real life, Buffet bought PTR last year.  Half a year later, it doubled and he got out.  Then PTR tanked, back almost to the point when he bought it.

It's a process called valuation. 

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#3) On May 17, 2008 at 1:49 AM, Tastylunch (29.33) wrote:

It's a process called valuation.

Well to be fair some allstars seem to close their greens based off TA reasons or news reasons, but the very best like yourself MakeitSeven largely do seem to be value guys. :-)

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#4) On May 17, 2008 at 2:21 AM, MakeItSeven (31.98) wrote:

Well, I combine both TA for accuracy points and valuation/dundamentals to catch up with the leaders in long term.

At first, when I started CAPS, I didn't realize how important accuracy point was so I just tried to rack up CAPS points as fast as possible at the expense of accuracy.

Later I had to use all the TA tricks in the book to pull the accuracy up.  Getting CAPS points is not hard, pulling accuracy from 65% to above 75% is HARD.  It means the new picks must have 85% accuracy or so to be effective.

Anyway, beating SP500 by 7% or so in a year is not easy.  Most mutual fund managers would die to get that result.  Therefore, if a CAPS player beats the SP500 in 4 weeks by 7%, say,  and then decide that there's a better bet somewhere else, it's not cheating even though it happens to help his CAPS accuracy score at the same time :).  Anybody can consistently do that in real life can make a lot of money too.  There's nothing nefarious about that, he just happened to have good timing, that's all :).

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#5) On May 17, 2008 at 2:50 AM, dbhealy (54.85) wrote:

you've been here two months.  93% of your success rides on one pick.  move along, nothing to see here..

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#6) On May 17, 2008 at 9:30 AM, chk999 (99.98) wrote:

If you remove the Bear Sterns call from your results you have about random results with a score near zero and about 50% accuracy.

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#7) On May 18, 2008 at 7:11 PM, eskatonic (29.22) wrote:

the only reason to close a losing pick is if you already have 200 picks and a new pick you want to load that you think will get you points faster then you think the loser pick will recover (if at all).

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