Moving Average Crossover Paper
Since we have a possible 50/200 DMA Golden Cross happening right now on the S&P 500(well on the simple moving averages anyway )
I thought this semi-related paper might be worth sharing.
It's one of the few papers I've seen suggesting that TA may actually work and in this case actually be safer than buy and Hold (!) (check out those drawdown numbers).
We'll have to see if that holds true in " Part II" or if the good Dr Wong was just teasing us, assuming I can find it when it's published. :) Based on what else I've read by him he does have an agenda (he's deinitely pro-market timing and seems to give advice based off that premise) so take that into consideration however you wish.
In any event the more I look the more it seems likely that the simplest TA systems have the greatest chance of being meaningfully tradeable