MPG: Is today the day to buy it or short it?
Today, after the market close, MPG will be reporting its earnings.
Maguire Properties Inc. is one of the most hated stocks here on CAPS. I don't remember ever seeing its CAPS rating being anything other than 1 (FYI: there is no zero rating in CAPS).
I wonder why? What can be so wrong with a real estate company in California? Or a company that has a negative $12 EPS with 4.5 billion in debt? Beats me.
I like MPG. But that's just me. I like highly speculative stocks. I also like being a little bit of a contrarian. It's fun. Sometimes.
Well, let's take a look at some PROS and CONS when it comes to making a correct call on MPG today:
PRO# 1: MPG was down on Friday and it's down again today (on an up day for the market), meaning expectations are low for today's earning announcement.
CON# 1: All big drops come in threes (third one being the mother of all drops).
PRO# 2: MPG is down 36% from its 52W high. It's time for some rebounding.
CON# 2: There is still 64% left for this stock to go down to zero (Is my math right...?)
PRO# 3: MPG's CAPS rating is 1.
CON# 3: MPG's CAPS rating is 1.
PRO# 4: Market is headed for a new high (say some people).
CON# 4: Market is headed for a double dip (say some people).
PRO# 5: MPG is still up more than 300% from its March 2009 low.
CON# 5: What goes up must come down (especially in California).
Well, there you have it. Decide for yourself.
There are only 2 things that can happen tomorrow morning when the market opens: MPG will either be up a lot or it will be down a lot (OK, there is more options, but these 2 are the most likely ones).
I hope it's the up scenario that plays out.
I like this chart a lot.
Good Luck MPG!