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My 4th portfolio has crossed into the 99 territory (without ETFs and .OB and .PK stocks)...

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January 10, 2011 – Comments (17)

I guess it can be done.

I know I'm no Porte, but I'm kinda excited that right now I have 4 portfolios with a rating over 99.

As I said in the title, I stayed away from using the well-known-CAPS-portfolio-enhancement-drugs called leveraged ETFs and red-thumbing of crapy .PK and .OB stocks. I tried to use only the stocks that anyone can buy through any brokerage house, with most of them being houshold names (assuming there is at least one investing-nut in the houshold).

Two of these four portfolios are YES Man portfolios, meaning they have not a single red-thumb call. Both of those also have no ETFs whatsoever (not 3X nor 1X ones).

What I also like about thee portfolios is that they all were started at a different time. For example one of them was started just a year ago, in December of 2009, and one was started just a few months ago, in July of 2010.

That shows you that it's not true that one needed to start a portfolio at the beginning of this bull market (Spring of 2009) in order to be able to get to the 99 rating (but they sure did have the advantage - just like Porte had an advantage over me :) )  

Here are my four 99+ portfolios:

dragonLZ, my original portfolio, started in June of 2009. 

rumblindrZ, 99.32 rating, 3263 points, 75.1% accuracy, started in December of 2009

ValueDragonStyle, 99.15 rating, 3129 points, 70.1% accuracy, started in July of 2010 

10Kdlz, 99.12 rating, 2707 points, 79.7% accuracy, started in February of 2010 

Now, I know many of you are thinking it's stupid to have so many portfolios and i kind of agree.

However, I started each one of these portfolios with a different purpose.

My original dragonLZ portfolio was started just like any other portfolios get started: You join the CAPS and you want to see how your stockpicking skills compare to those of other Fools (don't even try to tell me you weren't hoping you are a bigger Fool than the other Foos you find around here). Even though this portfolio is dear to me, I'm kinda sorry that I ruined it by "playing the game": closing picks as soon as they get over 5 positive points. I think that strategy did improve my accuracy, but it killed a lot of my potential points. In this portfolio, I was also using levergaed ETFs (earned less than 100 points on them with poor accuracy), but haven't had one in more than a year.

rumblingdrZ portfolio was started for the BLACK BOX RUMBLE competition that was anticitrade's idea. That was a 3 month competition, but not many players took a part in it. I think anticitrade had 5 or 6 portfolios, and anchack, Tastylunch, streetflame and myself each had one. My portfolio finished second - it placed after all of anticitrade's portfolios. Since then, anticitrade didn't close nor make any new picks and all of his portfolios are still ranked very high - one of them even higher than my rumblindrZ portfolio even though I actively managed my portfolio while he never touched his (I'm trying to say anticitrade's portfolios kicked asses of us other players big time).

my 10Kdlz portfolio was started as an day-trading idea. I wanted to see how well I can recognize (by using my chart eyeballing) good momentum stocks, which I could pick and close within CAPS' seven-day minimum holding period, with an average return of +10 points. I thought that I can get to 10 K points within 9 months by picking 1,000 - 1,200 picks with an accuracy of 80%. Well, I found out I would be a bad day trader (or more accurately, seven day trader). The things didn''t really work the way I wanted them to. After a few months, my highest number of points was 3,000 so I gave up on my original idea of hitting 10,000 by actively "trading" stocks. Right now, beacuse of this portfolios high accuracy (almost 80%), I changed my goal for this portfolio: Now I'm trying to get to an accuracy of 90+ (I like lofty goals).

So that would be it when it comes to my 99 rating portfolios.

I have 4 more portfolios (which are below 99 rating, of course), but unfortunately now I have no time to tell you more about them:

MarketWhisperer, 98.76 rating, 4885 points, 61.1% accuracy, started in September of 2009.

May2110, 97.64 rating, 2263 points, 60.5% accuracy, started on May 21 of 2010

100prcntAccuracy, 87.52 rating, 615 points, 60.5% accuracy, started in July of 2010 

DLZtheBestOf, 68.47 rating, 680 points, 48.5% accuracy, started in May of 2010

(What DLZtheBestOf and 100prcnt Accuarcy portfolios are all about - as porte would say, you can see in this post here).

Sorry, but I'm running out of time. Gotta go. Wife's calling.

Soon, I hope to be able to share with you some Real Life stockpicking - after all, this CAPS stuff is just a game, right?

Thanks for reading everybody (if you made it this far), and Good Luck.

17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 10, 2011 at 5:20 PM, helicopterfool (60.97) wrote:

Congrats!

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#2) On January 10, 2011 at 5:30 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

well done Mr. dragonlz!

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#3) On January 10, 2011 at 6:34 PM, Momentum21 (51.29) wrote:

Great work dragon. I really like one of your recent picks...ADC.

It looks like something that should be owned...it was downgraded today by some crazy analyst but I give it an upgrade.

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#4) On January 10, 2011 at 7:01 PM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

YOu know what -

 

100prcntAccuracy - I came across this profile - and my very first reaction was - this gottab be dragon's - or someone like him - LOL!

 

You know the strangest thing - something which I learnt from one of my profiles in CAPS also - picking a portfolio of stocks around a bottom is great - and they should all have positive returns - but getting alpha ie accuracy - is not guranteed.

In this regard - employing Levered ETFs - even in real life is not a bad ploy - alongwith stocks

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#5) On January 10, 2011 at 8:02 PM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

helicopterfool, Thank you.

 

Thank you Mr. port.

 

Thanks Momentum. I think it might be too early to get into ADC at this time. I just gave it thumb up in my value portfolio, but wouldn't yet do it in RL. If it drops more ($20, or even $18), I think it will be a nice long term play. Of course, this is just my opinion.

 

Thank you to all who took the time to read this post, rec it, and/or cooment on it. I really appreciate it.

Good Luck All.

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#6) On January 10, 2011 at 8:38 PM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

anchak, I really think 100prcntAccuracy portfolio is an incredibly good portfolio. Its low CAPS accuracy doesn't really tell the whole story.

First of all this is a portfolio of 38 stocks - could very well be someone's real life portfolio.

However, 38 stocks is still quite a few if one is trying to outperform the market with every single one of them.

So far, 35 out of these 38 stocks have positive returns. The only 3 "losers" are down 2.3%, 4.4%, and 5.3%. Who of us wouldn't like to have the worst perfoormer in our portfolios be a stock that's down only 5%?

This portfolio was started only 6 months ago, and it already has two stocks that doubled, two with a return over 90%, one over 80%, three over sixty, and so on.

I do realize the market has been up 22% since this portfolio got strated, but still I think this portfolio still has a good chance of achieving 100% CAPS accuracy (after a few corrections and run-ups).

Again, this is just my opinion.

p.s.

Keep in mind, this portfolio has no closed picks (nor it will ever have) - I'm trying to achieve 100% accuracy that will last for a year or so, not to "game the system".

Thanks for reading and commenting.

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#7) On January 10, 2011 at 10:35 PM, SultanOfSwing (95.77) wrote:

good work dragonLZ!  I still think I will catch your top flight portfolio someday even though you have a 9-month head start on me.  Yeah, not sure how how you guys manage to maintain multiple portfolios of 100+ picks each without using computer science to trigger opening and closing picks.  I guess its sort of like being a professional dog-walker.

Signed,

Jose Canseco  ;)

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#8) On January 10, 2011 at 11:11 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

man, congratulations, that is some serious outperformance and starts to eliminate the possibility that you just got lucky/good timin and so forth.  I think a couple of 99.9 guys wouldn't be 99.anythin without massive timing success along the way, you should have a drink and declare yourself of superior intellect.

i have just the one portfolio, and I hae found over the last year or so that its quite a useful barometer set up as it is.  It works like this:

-I have few picks, so relative to the average CAPs game portfolio I am extremely low beta

-if the market is going down and my score is going down (my composite average score, like 99.79 or 99.83 or whatever) then CAPs is bearish

-if the market is going up and my score is going down, again my composite averae score, then CAPs is bullish

CAPs is very bullish right now I think.  If people really are doin the inverse ETF underperform thing to get their scores up that will, of course, damage the baramoter...

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#9) On January 10, 2011 at 11:16 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

one thing, though:  shorting levered ETFs, if you have a brokerage that will work to get you the shares, can truly be a very real-life profitable enterprise. 

risky if timed wrong, and not for the faint of heart, but I have made plenty real life $$ this way

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#10) On January 11, 2011 at 8:52 AM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

checklist34, Thanks a lot.

I also think CAPS is very bullish right now, and that's kinda scary. There is a good chance the market will nose dive based on the fact alone that every time I bragged about my performance in the past, Mr. Market gave me a nice spanking.

...you should have a drink and declare yourself of superior intellect.

Believe me, superior intellect has nothing to do with it (I'm sure my wife would be happy to vouch for that one).

Thanks again.

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#11) On January 11, 2011 at 9:05 AM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

SultanOfSwing, Thank you.

There is a very good chance of you catching my main portfolio as you usually call the market turns correctly, while my portfolio suffers during market downturns.

I will, however, try not to make it easy for you... :)

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#12) On January 11, 2011 at 9:29 AM, anticitrade (99.64) wrote:

DragonLZ,

Congratulations!  I am very impressed with the 75% accuracy of your rumblin portfolio!  Obviously you have an ability to understand the strategic position of a company and consistently draw the correct conclusion (well  3 times out of 4 anyway).  This is definately something I am trying to improve on. 

I have always liked the idea of multiple portfolios to test out theories and strategies.  My mistake is I get so many tests going on at once that it becomes impossible to maintain all of them.

Good luck!

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#13) On January 11, 2011 at 9:52 AM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

Thank you very much,  anticitrade.

Our rumblin' competition produced some really good portfolios.

2010 wasn't nothing like 2009, still, your portfolios and mine managed to get to the 99 rating. I think that's pretty cool.

Nice to "see" you again and Good Luck.

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#14) On January 11, 2011 at 11:24 AM, edwjm (99.88) wrote:

One thing that I noticed in comparing your various portolios is the effect of time.  Your older portfolios do better than your newer portfolios.  There is definitely a positive effect of time in the system.

I suspect that a good case could be made for the fact that my one and only portfolio has a better ranking than any of yours is simply a matter of me being a player considerably longer than you.

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#15) On January 11, 2011 at 11:26 AM, edwjm (99.88) wrote:

Oops!  I forgot to check dragonLZ, your original portfolio, which is ranked above me!

That serves me right for bragging.  One serving of crow please.

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#16) On January 11, 2011 at 11:44 AM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

#6 Dragon - that's exactly what my point was -

Even if you don't garner 100% accuracy ie Alpha outperformance - but a good group of stocks at market bottoms is a good LT portfolio to carry.

 

However - if you want to juice some returns - immediately use Levered ETFs and then exit after the initial hoopla and hold the portfolio

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#17) On January 11, 2011 at 12:36 PM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

 edwjm, you did have a slight time advantage, but you also made some pretty good calls.

Congrats on your high rating and good luck in the future.

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