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My Earnest Market Prediction

Recs

4

January 02, 2014 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY , DDD , QQQQ

I am cautious this year.  While I think the market will be positive, I do think we need to tap the brakes.  I predict around 4% this year, based on my updated Rule of 20 analysis.  See why here:

 http://tdpresearch.wordpress.com/2014/01/02/rule-of-20-says-stock-market-slow-down/

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 02, 2014 at 4:55 PM, Mega (99.95) wrote:

The reasoning behind this rule doesn't make much sense.

First why would you combine a yield type of number (inflation) with a multiple type of number (PE)? It seems awfully arbitrary. Also why would you use inflation instead of the more obvious choice, interest rates?

4% is a reasonable central estimate, but I'm quite sure there are better ways to get there.

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#2) On January 02, 2014 at 9:23 PM, Valyooo (99.35) wrote:

Mega,

 

what are you looking at this year? I'm stuck holding some SPY, Phillip Morris, and. Few mortgage reits.  I scaled out of SPY earlier this week, but is don't know what to do with the cash right now 

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#3) On January 03, 2014 at 11:06 AM, Mega (99.95) wrote:

I really doubt I can find stocks that will perform as well as GNW and BIDU this year.

Might be time for emerging markets to recover. PM, DTV, CYD, LUKOY, JSHLY, BSBR, SSNLF

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#4) On January 03, 2014 at 11:46 AM, Mega (99.95) wrote:

Neither of my brokers will let me buy SSNLF though (without an expensive phone trade). My next step is to see if I can buy Korean call options.

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