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My Final Electoral Map Prediction for President

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November 03, 2012 – Comments (13)

We are on the cusp of one of the closest Presidential elections in our lifetimes and throughout the course of this campaign I've provided a couple of electoral maps that have shown a slight Obama edge creep into a minor Romney lead. However, I believe that this election is breaking favorably now for Gov. Romney and the polling that we are seeing from early voting, including the extensive data that Gallup has provided has shown that what was a +16 point advantage for Obama in 2008 over McCain has turned into a +6 point edge for Romney in the swing states. 

That is Huge!

Also, data suggests that the overall gender gap has shrunken incredibly, where recent polling shows a statistical tie between Obama and Romney among women, while Romney owns a decisive edge among men. Unless there's some other gender type that I'm leaving out, that would seem to bode very well for Romney chances on election night. 

Also, enthusiasm among democrats is notably less than what we are seeing among republicans, while independent voters are breaking decisively in Romney's favor as well. 


Here's how the swing states look:

Nearly all the polling results out there is using 2008 exit poll data as the basis for weighting this year's polls. I'm quite confident that is a huge mistake as I think we'll see something more along the lines of what 2004 gave us when Bush was running for re-election. Overall turnout will be lower than what we saw in 2008.

With that said,  I think Florida is a foregone conclusion that it will fall in Romney's column. The data coming out of this state has been very favorable for Republicans. Even long-shot Connie Mack running against the well-established Bill Nelson is closing the gap between those two as well, which I thought would be very unlikely. 

Other swing states that are following the same course as Florida is North Carolina, Colorado, and Virginia. New Hampshire has peaked at the right time for Romney as well, and get-out-the-vote efforts have favored Republicans in that state .

One state I don't believe Romney has a chance at that many believe to be a toss up is Nevada. There is far too strong of an influence among casino unions and Hispanics - both of which favor Obama quite nicely. 

Michighan and Minnesota, though some have put these states in the toss-up column, I don't think Romney can carry them. Between the two Michigan has the best chance though.

Here's the electoral map as I see it.

The Must-See Swing-States Final Four:

Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), and Iowa (6) - these are the states that are likely to be the closest. Between them they represent 54 electoral votes - or almost the electoral value of California (55). 

At this point Romney holds a 261-223 lead over Obama and ONLY needs 9 more electoral votes to become your 45th President of the United States. 

And I'm going to make a bold prediction and say that all four states go for Romney and provides him with a well cushioned 315-223 victory over Obama. 

Despite all the anti-Romney commercials in Ohio that is running over his stance in the auto-industry, polls have him and Obama tied between 47-48. Without getting over 50% before an election in polls,  tie goes to the challenger as it always has, and you'll likely see a 51-49/52-48 margin of victory for Romney. 

Remember undecideds in polling are typically not undecided between Romney and Obama, but Romney and not voting. That's why on election day, undecideds vote 5 to 1 against the incumbent, in favor of the challenger. 

Wisconsin has similar data to that of Ohio, and is also peaking at the right time for Romney. Iowa, is pushing into the Romney camp as well established firms such as Rasmussen shows a +1 advantage (#1 polling firm in 2008) and that's all that Romney needs for a decisive victory on Tuesday.

My most controversial of picks is Pennsylvania, which is the gold-mine between the four states mentioned, representing 20 electoral votes. I'll get a lot of disagreement on this one but I think this state, with the heavy coal influence will slightly tilt Romney on election night. 

So there you have it - my electoral map. Feel free to disagree, post your comments stating as much. But my job is to give you my opinion, and that is what I'm providing you with. Do I think I'm 100% right? Not at all. But with the information and data that I've seen to-date, this is how I see the election going. 

Here's the electoral map as I see it.

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 03, 2012 at 3:59 PM, Mega (99.96) wrote:

I'll bet you $5000 Romney doesn't win Pennsylvania.

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#2) On November 04, 2012 at 12:33 AM, outoffocus (23.21) wrote:

I think we're screwed either way...sorry

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#3) On November 04, 2012 at 1:30 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.69) wrote:

Geez....

Once again no respect for Dr. Ron Paul.

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#4) On November 04, 2012 at 6:48 PM, Melaschasm (54.44) wrote:

I think Iowa and Pennsylvania are both tilting Obama, but his margin of victory will be small.  That said, the final result is probably going to favor Romney, but it is to close to say with certainty.

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#5) On November 05, 2012 at 1:32 AM, awallejr (81.52) wrote:

We will see in 2 days.

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#6) On November 05, 2012 at 1:37 AM, awallejr (81.52) wrote:

And for the record I do predict an Obama win, which won't be as bad a thing as many fear since afterall under him the stock market doubled.

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#7) On November 05, 2012 at 8:59 AM, SharePlanner (< 20) wrote:

awallejr - if you think that the market went up for any other reason then the Fed artificially pumping months and months of printed money via QE 1, 2 & 3 you are greatly mistaken. 

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#8) On November 05, 2012 at 10:00 AM, edwjm (99.87) wrote:

MegaShort:

Only $5000.00?  Why so cheap?

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#9) On November 05, 2012 at 11:14 AM, awallejr (81.52) wrote:

Except Shareplanner Obama supported and reappointed Bernanke so he gets credit for that.  Also he did keep taxes low, so he gets credit for that.  And finally, Romney said he would not re-appoint Bernanke, implying he wants a hawk.  So yes, like him or not, Obama does get credit here.

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#10) On November 05, 2012 at 11:36 AM, edwjm (99.87) wrote:

My prediction:

Romney wins the popular vote, but Obama wins the electoral college 271--267

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#11) On November 05, 2012 at 12:25 PM, Mega (99.96) wrote:

edwjm

I was trying to stay within SharePlanner's budget.

Actually, I've got another idea. SharePlanner, why don't we make a bet on the overall winner.  The loser has to stop posting on CAPS.

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#12) On November 05, 2012 at 1:56 PM, JaysRage (89.78) wrote:

The way I see it, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin all go to Obama, giving him the election, in addition to Virginia, who you have for Romney.  

Virginia employment is heavily dependent on big government and has very low unemployment.   They benefit from the status quo.  

Iowa doesn't end up mattering, but I think it could go to Romney.   

A little more detail about Wisconsin.   There are really three medium sized population centers....Madison, Milwaukee and Green Bay/Fox Cities.   Madison and Milwaukee go consistently blue.   Green Bay/Fox Cities is consistently red, as is the rest of the rural and smaller city areas.      

Obama has spent a great deal of time and effort in Wisconsin, and he has a natural majority in the state.  If the Democratic machine simply gets voters out to the polls in Madison and Milwaukee, those ultra-liberal epicenters easily carry the state if voter turnout is strong.  It takes a weak turnout in those areas for anything else to counter those metro areas.   The rest of the state comes in red, but if turnout is good, it doesn't matter.  

 

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#13) On November 05, 2012 at 2:58 PM, L0RDZ (81.94) wrote:

A wall   crediting  Ben  for  doing  what  Greenspan  had  done  is  ridiculous.

The  power  that  the  Fed  yields  is  crazy,  as  if   deflation is  some  big  scarey  boooooooo  ggggggggggggggggeeeeeeee  man. 

I'd  like  to  see  the  Fed  Reserve  abolished...  as well as  the  IRS...    what  good  has  QE  to  infinity  done  to  someone  who can't  find a  j  o  b   because  the rest of  the gov-ment  has  their  heads  so far  up   their  benefactors  behinds   that  if  they  were  to sneeze  they  could  wipe  their  noses  from  the inside.

 

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