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alstry (35.28)

My How Stock Analysis Has Changed

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June 15, 2010 – Comments (4)

In the old days, the buzz between the analysts and the businesspeople was about rising revenues, rising profits, producing more and more.......

Today, it is about how little we lost, how little revenues declined, or how much better we did than our competitors.....as we produce less and less.

In an age where more and more are depending on less and less production....prepare for a lot of fights to break out on who has the right to that production....

The Government

The Bankers

The Citizens

The Welfare Recipients

The Retired

The Workers

The Stockholders

The Bondholders

It is impossible to collectively service debt when production is declining.......hence we have millions unable to pay mortgages.

People get really really angry when life can't meet their expectations....now the only question is how will Obama generate enough production to meet everyone's needs now that the bankers have cut off credit.....

Clearly that is impossible based on the current environment.

However, war has always been a good way to get people to produce cheaply and temper their expectations......

So is slavery.......

In the end....we must produce a massive amount to sustain our massive economy......it is strange how little is being discussed about declining production, absent government borrowing and spending, by our analysts these days.

Everyone is looking at the ticker as production collapses to levels not seen in over a genation against a debt load that needs to be serviced not seen in history.

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 15, 2010 at 4:49 PM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

Pickup truck sales are up. Since a lot of pickups are bought by small businesses only when it looks like there is work to do be done with them, a lot of people aren't seeing demand collapse.

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#2) On June 15, 2010 at 4:57 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

The only reason there is demand right now is Obama is borrowing $2 trillion dollars against declining tax receipts/declining production.

This cannot go on much longer or money will be worthless....as money must be a derivitive or production and NOT simply borrowed and spent.

The real estate collapse is the perfect example of a credit collapse....what is going on with government right now is no different...but this time everything will go with it....

That is why war is the most likely path for our politicians to compel/drive production from its citizens.

Pick up sales are up from horrible levels....they should be skyrocketing based on the size of the deficit.....but still at decades old rates as production in many areas are still evaporating.

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#3) On June 15, 2010 at 10:09 PM, dickseacup (66.87) wrote:

What do you think, alstry:

Excessive government spending is propping up the economy right now. Business realizes the economy/market/wtfe isn't fundamentaly sound and, thus, are not investing additional capital beyond what they might need (very little, as fixed and variable capital not committed to private market consumption is being redirected or eliminated) to accomodate said government spending. Once the government spending runs out, there will be a lag between the removal of that support and the point where businesses are able to assess an unmolested market to determine where best to invest saved capital, direct labor and focus entrepreneurial efforts.

With me so far? If so...

What happens to the economy in that interim 'lag' period?

Is it possible that the current, ongoing perversion of the markets (Keynes on hallucinogens) could continue long enough to actually drive all, or at least a significant/critical number, of the competent businessmen and entreprenuers out of the market altogether? If so, what is the likelihood that we are at, or have crossed, that point?

Or, do you think that competent businessmen and entrepeneurs are willing to sit idly by, biding their time until this 'storm' passes?

Of course, if you don't agree with any of this, then never mind. ;)

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#4) On June 15, 2010 at 10:42 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

We are tracking....

production is now at crictically low levels in many industries.....and we are now going after the public safety area.....

At some point we will have to force production in order to keep society functioning.  The two most probable ways are compulsory service like Israel and other nations require.....and war, placing the entire nation on a military footprint, which is becoming the most likely scenario as many will volunteer to adjust their expectations and service.

Man must produce, or humanity perishes.

And man is producing less and less everyday.

BP Well Leaking as Much as 60,000 Barrels a Day

This one could shut down most of the production in Florida, Alabama, and Louisana.

Update: Forsyth County GA. - 88 Possible Deputy Layoffs

Arvato Digital Services ( Canada ) - up to 200

Columbus County School NC - 25

Chicago School Board - 2,700 Teacher Layoffs Possible

City of Topeka KS - 39 Layoffs by Thursday 

Japan Airlines - 3,600 Additional Job Cuts 

Update: PA. Port Authority - 500 Layoffs, and 30% Service Cuts 

Cherry Hill NJ - 32

The Twin Valley School Board Pa. - 15

Genesee County Michigan - 21 More Layoffs

Mercy Medical Center in Springfield - 135

City of Beaumont TX - 16 More Possible 

Two Franklin County school districts - 14+

The Harbor Springs school district Michigan - 7

Update: Hershey - 500 to 600

Stora Enso Finland Plant ( International ) - 500 Temp. Layoffs

Town of Franklin MA - Moving ahead with 18 layoffs

Sonoma County Ca. - 177

Fresh Solution Farms LLC in Mottville - 60

Visit Jacksonville Tourism Agency FL - 3

St. John's Jesuit High School and Academy - 8

Town of Cheshire Schools CT - 7

Update: Fort Wayne Community Schools - Outsourcing 217

Tasman Hartford LLC - 50

Allegheny General Hospital Suburban campus in Bellevue - up to 344

Pleasantville Public Works Department NJ - 9

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