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Varchild2008 (85.35)

My JAW dropped to the floor when I saw (PNX) stock

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August 20, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: PNX

PNX:  Not sure what I think about it.. other than What the heck????

this is still a $1.XX stock... closed up 18 cents or 10%.   Despite climbing 10% it is down year to date by about 34.4%.

The company is a Life/Personal/Commercial Insurance Co. that has MISSED earnings estimates 6 quarters in a row.  The stock price has fallen off a cliff to reflect all of these earnings misses.

The previous quarter was the first NON-GAAP quarter in awhile in which the company reports a LOSS....They have reported losses in multiple quarters on a GAAP basis.

This last one was in the amount of 14 cents a share or 96 cents a share GAAP loss.

Nonetheless, Analysts are expecting at least a 5 cent EPS profit in the very next quarter.

Can this company come out of the massive DIVE and become profitable in the next quarter on a NON-GAAP basis?

If so then you are looking at today's price of $1.98 and the price of profitability being around
$5.XX a share... That is a 2.5 times performance....  Whatever you put into the stock could DOUBLE AND A HALF in exactly 3 months or whenever they report earnings for this quarter.

Of course (PNX) missed expectations.... But I base the 5 cent EPS from the Listed LOW expectation on my Scottrade chart screen.  Historically this WAS a $15.XX stock.

Phoenix Company's website:  http://www.thephoenixcompany.com/index.cfm

And looking at the website.. my confidence that Phoenix can pull off profitability plummets.
There really isn't a whole lot of information on their coverage plans.

They expect you to fill out an online form to describe what changes you want to make to your coverage and then sit and wait for the company to give you a call???? 
What kind of Customer Service is that?

They do have a phone number so maybe the online form can be ignored....bypassed....

But if I want to shed some light on what their homeowner's insurance is:

http://www.thephoenixcompany.com/personalhomeowners.cfm

That ain't going to cut it.

So, while I am eyeballing here a HUGE amount of cash if the company performs a Miracle and is profitable in the next quarter..

And while MOODY's sees $$$$$ to be made in the Life Insurance / Mutual Insurance business during this recession.......because of this recession.....(PNX) is merged with John Hancock insurance and Manulife Financial Corp and they make up a NON-MUTUAL insurance conglomerate.

So is PNX a buy??? and why if so??

Standard and Poor's cut PNX rating earlier this month August 6th.... Immediately Phoenix Company's comes out barnstorming with a response to the Rating Cut from BBB- to BB,
stating that their cost cutting moves will save them $110 million annually.

They made the savings by slashing 35% of their workforce........ THIS MONTH....

Comtrex Smartrend has a Bullish reading on the stock with an initial resistance of $1.76 (50 day moving average) and another resistance at the 200 day average of $1.96.

The stock is at $1.98.   The stock has crossed it's 50 day and 200 day moving average.

On a TECHNICAL glance... PURE TECHNICALS.... Pure CHARTS.....  This stock is a buy.

My gut feeling though says... *AVOID*

But...well... A good strategy is to throw a small amount of change and see what happens in the next earnings report... 

What do you think?  Read what the C.E.O. has to say about his company here on www.businesswire.com  August 6th press release is the statement from the C.E.O.

After reading that.. I badly want to say this is BUY.... But I still can't.

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 20, 2009 at 5:57 PM, awallejr (83.97) wrote:

In real life I don't know, for caps it might be worth it as a gamble.

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#2) On August 20, 2009 at 6:06 PM, Varchild2008 (85.35) wrote:

yea it's a toss up.   There's no way to just TRUST the C.E.O. when I don't really know the guy's track record..

But given the bleak status of the company.... well...track record today ain't good.

And yet... There just may be enough speculators to push this stock to $3.00 in short order over the next month or two.

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#3) On August 20, 2009 at 7:23 PM, awallejr (83.97) wrote:

I green thumbed it in caps as a gamble because if they can pull off a tiny profitable quarter this year and then steady profitable quarters next year you could see a nice percentage move. 

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