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My Monthly just to converse BLOG - JUNE, 2009 Volume 1.



June 03, 2009 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: OPEN.DL , IO , N

Blogs were originally added to the internet as a place to air ones thoughts/opinions/etc. They have become a communication vehicle when you want to have a discussion with a wide audience. In this case, I'm going to have a monthly blog just to banter with.  While I am not a stock expert and do not pretend to be, I am "opinionated" and don't mind sharing.

I'm starting to get some questions in my prolific pitches and some comments on occasion where a blog might be a better place to respond.

I'm also getting some "hate mail" in my pitches.  This tells me I've hit a nerve. Two were pumpers who made no picks. (MDVX.OB, RCNI)  One CAP's "player?" created a whole new profile just to tell me what he/she thinks of me.  TSIFisaFOOL is actually a true statement and a catchy username. Besides spamming me with a spoof of my identity and a few pitches, the child has apparently moved on to other targets.  

No, I don't pretend to know anything. I have lots of opinions. The ones that end up being "wrong" are free. If you make money from them then I'll give you my paypal account for your deposit.

I find that despite treating my pitches as an open forum to my thoughts and leaving me vulnerable to being proven wrong, that as a whole they are useful, especially in this market, where I'm more a "trader" than a long, as I use to be. They remind me why I picked them when I forget!  They are open to the world, and I enjoy thoughtful replies and differing opinion. (AXL, BTAHY.PK, ATPG)  I've changed my thumb a few times upon learning more. (DNDN, HEB).

I also find that when I'm proved really, really wrong by a CAP's call that it's time to reevaluate. If I upthumbed something and it drops by 20-50% I sometime buy it.  While my DD and analysis is limited on CAPs, due to time, it is a nice place marker to come back to when it stands out in BIG RED points or BIG GREEN Points.

So I'm happy to have some banter when appending to a pitch just doesn't fit, doesn't satisfy your calling me out, you want to blow off some steam, or you want some of the kool-aid that I've been drinking. Warning, sometimes I do better when I "short myself".   The Kool-Aid does remind me that opinions are also free if you bring the alchohol, but they should certainly then be taken with a grain of salt, (great if you like Margaritas)!

So Blogging on, here's to June.  The Sell in May and go away crowd missed out. Let's see whose hanging around for June!


8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 03, 2009 at 6:11 PM, TSIF (99.98) wrote:

From one of my recent pitches on Lundin, Tagit writes:

I agree “completely” with NM-I did buy more “today”. However, what’s your reasoning on CVI; it appears to be a speculative play even on this nice pull back. Its gained almost 150% from year to date--has reached its target price and I don’t think oil will hit 80 a BBL this yr unless a major hurricane passes where it hurts “the worst”.  I’m also interested in what your thoughts are on “IVAN” They will in my opinion “one day” drill the oil sands successfully; it’s just a matter of when-not if. Any feedback Tsif?...thks

I replied a little more on CVI in my pitch on CVI that I just posted.

Regarding your other thoughts:   In regard to having gained 150% and has reached it's "price target".  How much a stock has gained/lost today is a good data point, but should not stop you from digging in.  There are lots of reasons stocks take a swing. Some are temporary and some are a warning. Buying opportunities result. Hedge funds left companies like CVI last October/November. In my opinion, looking at P/E, margins, and reading quarterlies, CVI was still undervalued.  Having lost 16% today means there are lots of recent buyers who bought it higher than me! 

In regard to reached it's "target price".  Target prices are a snapshot in time based on analysts projections. I don't have high esteem for analysts right now, still I dig into them.  In this case it's ONE analyst. One analyst put an $8 target on CVI months ago. I hardly think that has any bearing on real value. More heavily followed stocks can get 20-30 analysts. Those with zero to five should be looked at carefully with your own analysis.

 IVAN and the oil sands.  Your comment on oil not reaching $80 per barrel any time soon is one reason that I tend to stay away from the "sands".  The cost to produce oil from the sands is much higher than traditional drilling. Several companies are making a run on it and if you consider that the recession and low oil prices have drastically curtailed development then oil could be in short supply again and those with operating production will benefit. In the short run, I don't think the sands are the "place to be".

Ivan is bleeding money after issuing stock. That's fine if it's going into the infrasture and setting up for bigger profits later, but it's hard to tell. Their expansion into Ecuador and a partner is good news, but I know from personal experience that Ecuador is a tough partner to work with.  They utilize the US dollar which is also weakening. Overall, I think there are better plays than Ivan in the oil exploration catagory, but at $1.50 per share, it might carry some interesting risk/reward over the long haul.  Too many press releases, too far from making money. Exploratory can do well if the current supply of oil runs thin, but not in the near term. Not my cup of tea and more risk than CVI!! Not that I'm comparing the two, other than they came in the same question bundle! :)


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#2) On June 04, 2009 at 4:49 PM, Tagit (< 20) wrote:

Confused :).  I usually don't have more than 8 to 10 PF picks at one time-I keep it simple-short some, and some a play long. I also usually don't add more than 2 picks in the same sector or in this case "shippers" dry or wet. I'm holding NM-- I want to add GMR or PRGN even though we're talking different types of Shipping Co. it appears PRGN is better positioned for a nicer return in the near term-12 months or less.
Any thoughts or is there a better shipper to add than the 2 mentioned above that are priced less than 10.


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#3) On June 04, 2009 at 4:58 PM, TSIF (99.98) wrote:

Yep, sounded confused.  You nixed CVI because it was risky and then asked about IVAN!   I know it was two different topics, but when you nix a refiner because of risk and ask about an exploratory driller!  :)  

Simple is best. I hold about 8 long and 4-5 swing at any given time in my account, but have about 30 in a "combined" account that I help with.

Too many...what a head ache!!!!  Good days are really good, like today, and bad days are really bad, like yesterday....just gotta hope the average is above par!

Between GMR and PRGN, I like PRGN. GMR is carrying too much debt and paying out too much in dividends. Not a bad thing when you are on the receiving end, but it costs in the long run if you can't cover it with opex/capex.   GMR is more "unlike" NM as it carries crude, if you are looking for diversity. Crude has it's times, but when you are betting on a crude hauler, you are betting on an economy pickup.  I don't see it yet. Oil prices are up because the dollar is weakening, not because of demand. 

So two different looks. I'd suggest you look at TBSI, but they got theirselves into debt trouble as well. They have some fixed runs, twin hull, can separate cargo and do multiple customers on the same ship.  Cranes, logistics, etc.  But they will require the economy to turn around before gaining ground back.

Good luck.

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#4) On June 04, 2009 at 5:52 PM, Tagit (< 20) wrote:

Well, I didn't per say "nix" CVI---just asking your opnion-you gave it-I liked it-and actually picked it before you did in caps :) your style. What I didn't do-and kick myself in the ???-- was buy some yesterday...argggg.

I like IVAN cause its cheap-an exploratory driller-and the oil sands. It may be a 5 to10 yr play ( if they can make it) or aquired by another-- I  feel stongly its just a matter of when-- not if. Oil starving world!!

I've looked hard at TBSI-nice inside ownership--and your correct-- the economy is key--right now it appears the economy is the key to everything--unless we're all Zombulated :) always-- your opinion is appreciated.


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#5) On June 04, 2009 at 7:09 PM, TSIF (99.98) wrote:

Tagit, if you want some variety in your portfolio, give FHC a look.

It's a Tiny, but over the $100 Million mark.

It's move to the Nasdaq:

   "Effective as of the opening of trading on Tuesday, June 9, 2009 the Company's shares will commence trading on NASDAQ under the symbol [FHCO]."

Could be a little spurt for it.  From the Nasdaq it has a chance to get picked up by more mutual funds starting with Small Cap's and Index Funds.

When it gets above $5 and grows a little bit more then it has a good chance of getting picked up by other Mutual funds that it's too small for now.

Not a pump, just a flag that it might be worth some research and fit your sub $10 portfolio with good growth potential over the next year or two if China doesn't infringe on it's patents.

Socially responsible, consumable, repeat business!  :)

Take care.

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#6) On June 10, 2009 at 6:42 PM, techspecialist (< 20) wrote:

I really thought this article was insightfull.

There's a fierce battle taking place in the Behavioral Targeting and Marketing arena and it involves some of America's biggest internet corporate giants, all fighting for the survival of their online advertising initiatives. Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), AOL (TWX) and Yahoo (YHOO) amongst others are all now trying to monetize their large online audiences composed of numerous acquisitions costing billions of dollars.

The question remains, is there a gun that could put an end to the proverbial knife fight? That gun just may be a company named Modavox (MDVX.OB), recently written about by Microcap Speculator in his article "Modavox Surges on Favorable Patent News."

eMarketer estimates the online advertising industry is predicted to generate 28 billion in revenues in 2009 and 32 billion in 2010. The key is that there exist patents that cover the core monetization and targeting technology to this entire space and guess who owns them?

The original Modavox patent issued in 2002 has a priority date of October 1999 and that predates Microsoft, Google, AOL and Yahoo's targeted advertising initiatives. The company subsequently had a new patent issued in 2007. Both patents are in force through 2018 and two Continuation filings have been filed along with one Divisional filing leaving open the door to additional inventions and claims stemming from the original.

The distribution process owned by Modavox allows any webpage to provide users with customized content. The process provides for the targeting widely utilized in advertising delivery space and also covers the targeting systems allegedly even used by e-commerce sites such as Amazon and eBay (EBAY). The Modavox IP provides the ability to own and license the delivery of targeted advertising the behavioral subset, and other targeting such as geographic targeted advertising. By owning Modavox's IP, the eventual purchaser of Modavox would assume ownership and dominance of this key technical space.

Modavox's is already two years into a patent infringement suit against Tacoda, founded and sold by David Morgan to AOL for $275 million. They recently added AOL, TWX and Platform A to the infrigment list. ValuClick (VCLK) has also filed suit against AOL's Tacoda, again for patent infringement. Yahoo recently indicated they may be going after AOL for the $375 million purchase of Quigo alleging possible patent infringement.

The Modavox IP portfolio would seemingly provide its eventual owner with protection against these lawsuits and could be used to counter Behavioral patents and other patents that emerge from the backend, data collection, or other related IP that ultimately uses the Modavox system to distribute and monetize advertising or customized content to end users. Obviously the eventual owner of Modavox's IP would see these cases either fortified or undermined depending on the purchaser.

AOL's Platform A has seen $1.5 billion of collective investment. Tacoda and Quigo account for roughly $640 million of that investment and both of their respective technologies are foundational to online advertising audience monetization. To undermine AOL's ability to leverage these technologies undermines Platform A and AOL's complete online advertising strategy.

Any other major player in the space owning Modavox's patented IP puts them squarely in the position of being able to bring the proverbial "gun to the knife fight." Yahoo owning Modavox's IP would also appear to make them more attractive to a Microsoft if rumored recent advertising partnerships between the two are accurate. Modavox's recent Cease and Desist letter to Yahoo indicating they believe Blue Lithium, purchased by Yahoo for $300 million and representing the core of their targeting technologies, is infringing on Modavox's technology, probably doesn't help Steve Ballmer's comfort level.

The Modavox IP also includes the Augme Mobile platform and offers additional value to anyone of the big players in that it further enhances their position in the mobile space and provides again key ownership of sought after targeting within the technical space. The global mobile targeting initiative just launched by Google would be an example of a technology system that would appear to be suspect of infringement on Modavox patents with respect to targeting within the mobile space.

In summary, anyone of these or another large company buying Modavox will materially enhance their intellectual property portfolio while likely fortifying the foundation of their own existing proprietary technology. It will enable a next generation of mobile and Internet targeting that can be deployed to support and further enhance revenue generation capability.

Importantly, the significant progress evidenced in the recent Markman ruling in the case versus Tacoda has the potential for another player to see its investment in Modavox recouped with a subsequent settlement, license or judgment. Modavox's favorable disposition in the current case could clearly be favorably leveraged.

So there's the gun…it will be interesting to see which one of these companies CEOs are quickest on the draw…


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#7) On June 10, 2009 at 7:02 PM, TSIF (99.98) wrote:

For anyone else reading my blog, Techspecialist is only a specialist at paid pumping, and not a very good one.

Here is one of his bios.

Modavox specializes in trying to patent common technology and then suing people. Although it's 70's, they patented the term "boombox". It doesn't do anything, but it's their word.

Next they will patent the word "scam" and go after all of us.

The billionaire he cites as interested in the company would no doubt loan them a few $$ to pay the lawyers instead of the dilutive stock they and the cleaning crew are being given for payment for their services.   And I though lawyers were "smart".   Perhaps they are if they fool enough people to keep this stock price up.



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#8) On June 10, 2009 at 8:51 PM, TSIF (99.98) wrote:

Looks like my boiler room link came down. Guess I will have to find another. Sounds like a great job 4 people to a team working as a trained crew to spam a stock up or down. Bonus paid for each penny they move it in the "right direction".  One nice, one misguided facts, one causes confusion, one calls names.  Very well thought out process. 

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